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Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 138. (Read 907229 times)

legendary
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1004
I have a shitty blackberry and I never make calls, I only use Whatsapp so I pay about 6€ monthly for my contract. I don't smoke, drink or go out partying. I barely go out because I can't pay for the train to begin with.

So like I said, my only scape that I see right now, realistically, is if Bitcoin goes much higher in the next 10 years. So unless this was it and the big gains already happened, im pretty much fucked, unless totally out of my control lucky events unfold.

I have a dozen vacancies available in my hotel in Estonia. It doesn't look like your quality of life would suffer even if you became our room cleaner. You would get paid 400 euros/month + bed. Food is cheap and wifi included. Our business center has a computer with 15" monitor. You would mainly interact with btc people in all levels 10, 100, 1000, 10000 btc, including devs. Caught stealing => instant dismissal. Caught lying => one warning. Caught being lazy doing appointed tasks => two warnings. Possibility to advance in the career up to hotel manager level. Hotel manager gets about 4000 euros + perks.

This is open for everyone, I will later post the details about employee levels, work tasks and compensation scheme.

A true equal opportunity, rags to riches thing reminiscient of the 1880s, which coincidentally was the latest golden age in the castle also Smiley

How would you like us to apply for the job?  Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 1473
Merit: 1086
Autsch almost -0,5. Now i'm kind of sad, that i'm already out of FIAT - but all in Bitcoin.  Smiley

I am really curious if this log trendline will hold over time.
hero member
Activity: 722
Merit: 500
SlipperySlope is using a trendline with fixed slope. My trendline is calculated daily using all available data.

Thus, SS is making assumptions. I am not.

Got a ressource or dynamic plot for your trendline? I only know about an image of the graph from November 2013

Sorry, no. I'll update it to the thread about once per month.

Isn't this your trendline?

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=log+%28bitcoin%2Fusd%29++%2F+log+10+%2B+2.869800+-++0.003012+*++number+of+days+since+2009+Jan+03+%2Fdays+
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
SlipperySlope is using a trendline with fixed slope. My trendline is calculated daily using all available data.

Thus, SS is making assumptions. I am not.

Got a ressource or dynamic plot for your trendline? I only know about an image of the graph from November 2013

Sorry, no. I'll update it to the thread about once per month.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
Trust me!
rpietila - where is that trendline now?

Wrong thread. And 34 celcius too tired to think. It is somewhere between -0.4...-0.5 currently.

But is the trendline itself still holding strong or do you need to make some adjustments because the trend proved to be too far off?

SlipperySlope is using a trendline with fixed slope. My trendline is calculated daily using all available data.

Thus, SS is making assumptions. I am not.

Got a ressource or dynamic plot for your trendline? I only know about an image of the graph from November 2013
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
rpietila - where is that trendline now?

Wrong thread. And 34 celcius too tired to think. It is somewhere between -0.4...-0.5 currently.

But is the trendline itself still holding strong or do you need to make some adjustments because the trend proved to be too far off?

SlipperySlope is using a trendline with fixed slope. My trendline is calculated daily using all available data.

Thus, SS is making assumptions. I am not.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
Trust me!
rpietila - where is that trendline now?

Wrong thread. And 34 celcius too tired to think. It is somewhere between -0.4...-0.5 currently.

But is the trendline itself still holding strong or do you need to make some adjustments because the trend proved to be too far off?
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
rpietila - where is that trendline now?

Wrong thread. And 34 celcius too tired to think. It is somewhere between -0.4...-0.5 currently.
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
But what languages do you have to be able to speak? I suppose it's not enough to speak English fluently?

Cleaning is language-independent. Knowledge of Estonian, Russian, Finnish or any other language is a bonus and will help with promotions.
zby
legendary
Activity: 1594
Merit: 1001
21 days after that it should be something like:

perl -e 'print 10**(-2.869800 + 0.003012 * 2035)'
1818.10934887609
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
Trust me!
Yeah, would like some input from risto on this, as well. Already wondered a few weeks ago if the chart still holds or if something has changes in the meantime. I only knew about the version from winter 2013 I guess.
zby
legendary
Activity: 1594
Merit: 1001
rpietila - where is that trendline now?

Everyone is on vacation while we reached -0.5 Log from the S.reeds trendline

It's already 30 weeks after last ATH (last one ,,consolidation period'' took 27 weeks)
 
If market would repeat itself identically we would need one more high volume sell-of to trigger run-up, if I made right assumptions?

Shameless repost of my new research, originally in the Trendline thread:

I just updated my personal sheet tracking these things. The parameters of that one:
- flat price 0.005 assumed until Mt.Gox opens
- for 7/2010-2012, Mt.Gox prices used
- for 2013, three exchanges
- for 2014, Bitstamp only
- daily VWAP
- first day 2009-1-3, the first day of Bitcoin; last day 2014-7-9, the 2014th day of Bitcoin

The exponential trendline for this time:
USD/BTC = exp(-2.869800 + 0.003012 * D), D being the number of days

R^2 = 0.934183

The trendline is at $1583.

At $623, we are currently -0.405 units below the trend.

For comparison, the max we ever went below the trend prior to the first 2013 runup, was -0.573.
Prior to the second 2013 runup, -0.341.


The maximum downside (greatest drop in price experienced ever after) after a day when price has already been at a low of -0.4 or lower, is -19%, experienced in 2012-10-5 to 2012-10-26, when the price dropped from $12.75 to $10.31.

This is comparable to the price going from $623 to $504 this month. This would put us on par with the maximum historical downside from already such a low point as $623 represents in the trendline.

I will not go to the upside calculations now, just leave the closing remark:


TL;DR: Historically, buying at a price such as this has represented a very low risk entry point with very limited downside in dollar terms.

Historically, selling at a price such as this (for any other purpose than covering immediate needs) has been counterproductive, as it is very likely that you will get a better or at least not much worse a deal; 1, 2, 3, 6, or any number of months in the future.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 500
Trust me!
I have a shitty blackberry and I never make calls, I only use Whatsapp so I pay about 6€ monthly for my contract. I don't smoke, drink or go out partying. I barely go out because I can't pay for the train to begin with.

So like I said, my only scape that I see right now, realistically, is if Bitcoin goes much higher in the next 10 years. So unless this was it and the big gains already happened, im pretty much fucked, unless totally out of my control lucky events unfold.

I have a dozen vacancies available in my hotel in Estonia. It doesn't look like your quality of life would suffer even if you became our room cleaner. You would get paid 400 euros/month + bed. Food is cheap and wifi included. Our business center has a computer with 15" monitor. You would mainly interact with btc people in all levels 10, 100, 1000, 10000 btc, including devs. Caught stealing => instant dismissal. Caught lying => one warning. Caught being lazy doing appointed tasks => two warnings. Possibility to advance in the career up to hotel manager level. Hotel manager gets about 4000 euros + perks.

This is open for everyone, I will later post the details about employee levels, work tasks and compensation scheme.

A true equal opportunity, rags to riches thing reminiscient of the 1880s, which coincidentally was the latest golden age in the castle also Smiley

But what languages do you have to be able to speak? I suppose it's not enough to speak English fluently?
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
I have a shitty blackberry and I never make calls, I only use Whatsapp so I pay about 6€ monthly for my contract. I don't smoke, drink or go out partying. I barely go out because I can't pay for the train to begin with.

So like I said, my only scape that I see right now, realistically, is if Bitcoin goes much higher in the next 10 years. So unless this was it and the big gains already happened, im pretty much fucked, unless totally out of my control lucky events unfold.

I have a dozen vacancies available in my hotel in Estonia. It doesn't look like your quality of life would suffer even if you became our room cleaner. You would get paid 400 euros/month + bed. Food is cheap and wifi included. Our business center has a computer with 15" monitor. You would mainly interact with btc people in all levels 10, 100, 1000, 10000 btc, including devs. Caught stealing => instant dismissal. Caught lying => one warning. Caught being lazy doing appointed tasks => two warnings. Possibility to advance in the career up to hotel manager level. Hotel manager gets about 4000 euros + perks.

This is open for everyone, I will later post the details about employee levels, work tasks and compensation scheme.

A true equal opportunity, rags to riches thing reminiscient of the 1880s, which coincidentally was the latest golden age in the castle also Smiley
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
- An arm of the government of Finland confiscated all my assets once for 7 months, no charges, no compensation

Risto, would you be willing to say whether this was related to Bitcoin transactions?


Investment silver, actually. Or, more specifically, speaking out concerning the liquidity squeeze in 2008.
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 11105
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
I try to have long term goals but it's very discouraging when you can't have any savings since it goes to pay basic needs, so you cannot start any sort of meaningful life proyect. I've already given up on owning my own place and bringing girls there and generally living like a normal healthy human being. Im stuck in my parents house for life until I inherit it or some shit.

When I was 12 I realized I need to get to Helsinki or I would be stuck in a village where the distance to the nearest elementary school is 25 km and employment was about 30%. (My brother currently runs the farm and both parents are working outside in addition, to make the ends meet.) So I needed to undergo the following, among others:

- Working on farms (several employers), potatoes, picking strawberries, manufacturing & selling products, general farmwork, to raise money
- Buying and playing every title of the Sid Meier's Civilization series to enhance strategic thinking
- Saving money whenever possible, especially never buying a drink (even at my own sophomore party), always drinking from the toilet tap, going a whole day without drinking if tap water wasn't available, walking up to 8 km habitually just to save money, never buying clothes or food until 18
- Investing in stocks in the age of 16, in Russian market when 18, it went down 75% in 2 weeks since I bought
- Biking 22 km/day instead of taking a subsidized bus, to save money; hopping off bus 1 km early because the fare was cheaper
- Delivering spam to ppl's mailbox, twice per week, up to 830 mailboxes at a time, while trying to study
- Scavenging the trashbins for food, living up to 6 weeks without even once buying groceries, during uni
- Falling victim to multiple scams and money-making schemes
- First company went bankrupt and due to good luck, I did not end up losing all
- Second company was still making loss after 5 years, so essentially I subsidized it with my time and lived off wife's salary
- An arm of the government of Finland confiscated all my assets once for 7 months, no charges, no compensation
- Only occasionally had a car or two (or up to 8 when we had a car rental agency)
- Never owned real estate before buying the castle
...
- Making my first million at the age of 29, a mere 17 years after making the commitment to do so.

=> Make a target and stick to it. The unalterable laws of statistics favor the determined, if you just roll the ball enough many times Smiley

17 years sounds like much, but really if you are now 23, you'll then be 40. Not everyone who is 40 has a million euros! Also you are older in the beginning, so it's possible you can do it ~4 years sooner just for that reason. Then the general speed of things has increased a lot, shave off an additional 2 years. So at 34, you'll be a millionaire!

What people need to see is that most millionaires make their money by NOT SPENDING.  Risto demonstrates this mentality throughout his post.  Saving all your money gives you money to invest when opportunities come around.

Yes, living well within your means and investing the savings into income generating vehicles.



legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 11105
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
For example, they re paying 40€/month for their smartphone contracts, and then they are surprised, that they have no money.

If you are paying more than 10€ per month for your phone, well then you are one of them.
Phone contract expenses are not the worst, there are people who complains about not having money while spending 200€/month on cigarettes...

Never smoked before I was a millionaire, not even once (except in the army when I once got two free cigs).

...but NOW my phone contract is 50€+ and 500-1000€/month go to cigars, plus the car is 1000€+ and then the castle expenses Smiley

I think it all boils down to the understanding of cash flow and exponential function.

Remember also that science is pretty clear that smoking is NOT good for your health, and some people should NEVER smoke (even if rich) b/c they are NOT sufficiently genetically gifted.  Risto, you seem to be one of these who should NOT smoke.  In this regard, it does little to NO good for you personally to have acquired sufficient wealth to be financially independent - but to cause health conditions upon yourself in order that you cannot meaningfully enjoy such accumulated wealth.  Accordingly, eating good expensive and healthy food is important - but cigs should NOT be part of that - especially if one has health ailments.
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 11105
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
I try to have long term goals but it's very discouraging when you can't have any savings since it goes to pay basic needs, so you cannot start any sort of meaningful life proyect. I've already given up on owning my own place and bringing girls there and generally living like a normal healthy human being. Im stuck in my parents house for life until I inherit it or some shit.

When I was 12 I realized I need to get to Helsinki or I would be stuck in a village where the distance to the nearest elementary school is 25 km and employment was about 30%. (My brother currently runs the farm and both parents are working outside in addition, to make the ends meet.) So I needed to undergo the following, among others:

- Working on farms (several employers), potatoes, picking strawberries, manufacturing & selling products, general farmwork, to raise money
- Buying and playing every title of the Sid Meier's Civilization series to enhance strategic thinking
- Saving money whenever possible, especially never buying a drink (even at my own sophomore party), always drinking from the toilet tap, going a whole day without drinking if tap water wasn't available, walking up to 8 km habitually just to save money, never buying clothes or food until 18
- Investing in stocks in the age of 16, in Russian market when 18, it went down 75% in 2 weeks since I bought
- Biking 22 km/day instead of taking a subsidized bus, to save money; hopping off bus 1 km early because the fare was cheaper
- Delivering spam to ppl's mailbox, twice per week, up to 830 mailboxes at a time, while trying to study
- Scavenging the trashbins for food, living up to 6 weeks without even once buying groceries, during uni
- Falling victim to multiple scams and money-making schemes
- First company went bankrupt and due to good luck, I did not end up losing all
- Second company was still making loss after 5 years, so essentially I subsidized it with my time and lived off wife's salary
- An arm of the government of Finland confiscated all my assets once for 7 months, no charges, no compensation
- Only occasionally had a car or two (or up to 8 when we had a car rental agency)
- Never owned real estate before buying the castle
...
- Making my first million at the age of 29, a mere 17 years after making the commitment to do so.

=> Make a target and stick to it. The unalterable laws of statistics favor the determined, if you just roll the ball enough many times Smiley

17 years sounds like much, but really if you are now 23, you'll then be 40. Not everyone who is 40 has a million euros! Also you are older in the beginning, so it's possible you can do it ~4 years sooner just for that reason. Then the general speed of things has increased a lot, shave off an additional 2 years. So at 34, you'll be a millionaire!

Interesting unfolding of your life, the part I don't get is, how did you from there to making 1 million exactly? And how im going to be a millonaire at 34 specifically? Also im 25 soon. Im also an autist, I need specific step by step instructions to function. I didn't chose to be born like this, is just the way I percieve the world. Ironically, im really bad at programing, which should be a benefit of being autist. Not even that, lol.
The only way I see being a millonaire at 34 is if BTC goes to like 50K per coin, otherwise unless something else lucky happens, it's not gonna happen, realistically speaking and given the current situation.



I agree with your thoughts about things do NOT just happen.  And, in this regard, when rpetila is providing you a vision of being a millionaire at 34 years old, then that is just pie in the sky.   Surely, each of us have our limitations -  therefore, you gotta strive to develop visions and plans to stress you positive attributes and to work off of your strengths and attempting to overcome or at least to minimize some of your weaknesses.  No one plan is gonna work the same for all people, and therefore, you need to strive to identify areas in which you can meaningfully contribute and/or to add value and/or to receive compensation.  You can also strive to get a hold of self-help books or to get some of these resources off the internet or go to libraries in order to develop your skills and your thinking and your plan and your direction and your follow through and your keeping track of your progress and your inspiring yourself and others to be inspired by you.

EDIT:  BTW... I am also bothered frequently by this positive thinking mumbo jumbo; however, you still need to develop steps to improve your likelihood for success, and even then, there are NO guarantees that you will be successful.. except in your own mind about having had striven and having had overcome some of the obstacles in your path.



legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 11105
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
I try to have long term goals but it's very discouraging when you can't have any savings since it goes to pay basic needs, so you cannot start any sort of meaningful life proyect. I've already given up on owning my own place and bringing girls there and generally living like a normal healthy human being. Im stuck in my parents house for life until I inherit it or some shit.

When I was 12 I realized I need to get to Helsinki or I would be stuck in a village where the distance to the nearest elementary school is 25 km and employment was about 30%. (My brother currently runs the farm and both parents are working outside in addition, to make the ends meet.) So I needed to undergo the following, among others:

- Working on farms (several employers), potatoes, picking strawberries, manufacturing & selling products, general farmwork, to raise money
- Buying and playing every title of the Sid Meier's Civilization series to enhance strategic thinking
- Saving money whenever possible, especially never buying a drink (even at my own sophomore party), always drinking from the toilet tap, going a whole day without drinking if tap water wasn't available, walking up to 8 km habitually just to save money, never buying clothes or food until 18
- Investing in stocks in the age of 16, in Russian market when 18, it went down 75% in 2 weeks since I bought
- Biking 22 km/day instead of taking a subsidized bus, to save money; hopping off bus 1 km early because the fare was cheaper
- Delivering spam to ppl's mailbox, twice per week, up to 830 mailboxes at a time, while trying to study
- Scavenging the trashbins for food, living up to 6 weeks without even once buying groceries, during uni
- Falling victim to multiple scams and money-making schemes
- First company went bankrupt and due to good luck, I did not end up losing all
- Second company was still making loss after 5 years, so essentially I subsidized it with my time and lived off wife's salary
- An arm of the government of Finland confiscated all my assets once for 7 months, no charges, no compensation
- Only occasionally had a car or two (or up to 8 when we had a car rental agency)
- Never owned real estate before buying the castle
...
- Making my first million at the age of 29, a mere 17 years after making the commitment to do so.

=> Make a target and stick to it. The unalterable laws of statistics favor the determined, if you just roll the ball enough many times Smiley

17 years sounds like much, but really if you are now 23, you'll then be 40. Not everyone who is 40 has a million euros! Also you are older in the beginning, so it's possible you can do it ~4 years sooner just for that reason. Then the general speed of things has increased a lot, shave off an additional 2 years. So at 34, you'll be a millionaire!

Thats a great read!

I am in a similar situation, working my ass off in 2 jobs while giving tutorials in university and trying to finish my studies. And investing/saving every penny i can into Bitcoins.

I am not doing it as extreme as you did, but i only need 250€ per month - i think thats a good number. Every € above that number goes into Bitcoins.

GiveBTCpls, i have a lot friends like you. Blaming everyone else or the universe for their situation, but in reality its always their own fault.

For example, they re paying 40€/month for their smartphone contracts, and then they are surprised, that they have no money.

If you are paying more than 10€ per month for your phone, well then you are one of them.

I believe that we do NOT have enough facts about GiveBTCpls to know for sure that he has put himself into his current predicament.   Also, I believe that people can have runs of bad luck and very difficult obstacles to overcome.  NONETHELESS, it does seem that GiveBTCpls has demonstrated what seems to be a considerable amount of negative and defeatist thinking and projections of his current predicament. 

I do agree; however, that GiveBTCpls needs to work on making himself a more sympathetic person by taking more responsibility over his destiny.  There is NO guarantee that his creation and maintenance of positive actions is going to result in positive outcomes;however, it seems that he needs to devise a variety of plans and alternative plans in order to attempt to make progress towards tangible goals.  I believe that his assertion that he is working to accumulate BTC - and striving to achieve at least 1BTC on or before the end of 2014 is a step in the right direction.  He also said that he is involved in course work, too... NONETHELESS, he  may need to create some additional plans and back up plans and keep working towards his plans in order to achieve financial freedom.

Personally, it is my belief that financial freedom DOES NOT come from any specific number (such as 1 million euros or 100 BTC); however, it seems to come from a person being able to comfortably live within his/her means - and having a passive income that allows for such, would be better than having to work... or at least whatever work that a guy/gal does is on his own terms and b/c  s/he wants to... NOT b/c he has to in order to survive.

There seems to be a variety of definitions and perceptions of what is financial freedom, and I tend to believe that a person can still retain some obligations and responsibilities while maintaining financial freedom (and where those lines are drawn is gonna vary from person to person).










legendary
Activity: 2408
Merit: 1009
Legen -wait for it- dary


It comes basically down to the question if they're only selling Bitcoin they actually do have. Is that even allowed to sell more Bitcoin than they actually own in this case?

Someone correct me if I'm wrong but I beleive that they are only able to offer as much as they own. This is why I made the point about how they aren't going to be putting up their own coins so all etf coins will have to be bought from the general market.

This would be correct!
First off, only the FED can operate on fractional reserve and get away with it. In the financial market world, that would be more akin to a bucket shop or outright fraud
Number 2, If they sell unbacked funds, then it is effectively a CFD which is illegal in the US. No paper markets here.
Number 3, They will have to offer their own coins, because that is the backing for their ETF. It will have to be in place in order to begin trading.
There is no guarantee that they will ever buy more. If they were as sure as many around here that they will need to buy more, then why wouldn't they be buying it right now while the price is so "cheap"? Why wait until the ETF drives prices into the stratosphere? Because they aren't so certain it'll drive prices up. They aren't certain that they will sell every coin they hold. There are no guarantees on wall street. Simple as that
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