Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 264. (Read 907227 times)

Do I get credits for deletions?

I rarely comment on short term price movements, which I think is your primary if not exclusive interest.  I am not consistently wrong on that when I do.  If I were, I would long since have learned to autofade.  

You will rarely if ever find my comments useful.  I am much concerned with encouraging weak hands.  You don't need or want that.  You are almost certainly better off putting me on ignore.

I always buy back the same or exceeding the amount I just spent. It's a rule I've always stuck to over the years.

I find this explanation questionable at best.  While he's correct that retailer adoption is outpacing consumer adoption, and that retailers immediately sell their bitcoin, I don't think that creates selling pressure.

The reason is that people who buy on overstock or tigerdirect are just buying more bitcoin to replace what they spent.  They originally bought the bitcoin as an investment, they are excited to be able to use it for something, but they don't want to exit their position.

I don't have any solid numbers to support this assertion, but I don't think anyone does.  The takeaway is that the selling pressure is lower when you take into account the behavior of current retail bitcoin customers.

LOL, the moderation did not seem to be too necessary as forum is mostly down today

There is emerging evidence of a green candle (6h), which is with a higher volume that the nearby red ones. If we get more of these in the following 2-3 days, it might add to the conviction that we just passed the bottom. Though volume can be faked.

(The article is from the beginning of 2013-11-11, so almost a complete boom-bust cycle ago). I don't see the evil here. Everybody is free to liquidate their investment or use bitcoin as a currency, or do both.

Money has different functions, among which the important ones are:

Store of value

If you have a wealth management plan (I had ever since I made my first FIM 10,000, and it has been very elaborate since EUR 40,000), you allocate your assets to different categories that serve different purposes and provide upside and security in different scenarios. What you use as payment is completely different, although it is usually practical to have at least a small balance in the currencies you transact with.

Means of payment

Payment amounts are quoted in different currencies and you can typically pay in any currency with the use of conversion, which may be automatic or manual. What you own does not determine your means of transaction, unless it is a very big one in which case it might carry additional liquidity, tax or hassle considerations. You are free to use whatever currency as your unit of accounting, regardless of the country's fiat, or the allocation of your assets.

Thus, the rise in the use of something as a quote currency or a transaction currency, can at most be irrelevant to its value, but typically is positive, and the following statement


is absurd and wrong.


It is impossible to be 100% certain of anything. But a tendency in your writings seems to be that once you recognize something that in your assessment is a threat to Bitcoin, it means that the price action should follow immediately following your enlightenment. Since the Bitcoin economy is composed of perhaps a million actors, with many holding significant Bitcoin and/or fiat balances, your individual timing in understanding matters is not actually that important.

The beauty of the 5.25-year trendline with exponential fit (R^2=0.93 which is pretty darn good) is that it takes into account every worry of every person who has ever owned or not owned bitcoins. I put more weight on that than the individual worries of a single person.

It almost sounds like that you are first time experiencing a major low in bitcoin exchange rate.

Usually I like what you are writing. You have interesting thoughts about the need for anonymization in cryptocurrency and the comming ecnonmic collapse.

Now it feels like you are just spreading FUD. You say "we the customers" when you dont even own any coins and have no intention to be a bitcoin customer. You use a strong language and insult people. It feels like the most important thing for you is to have a strong opinion more than understand reality.

Moderator action - this thread is now proceeding at a rate of 200+ posts per day and it affects readability.

I will impose a 10 posts per 24 hours limit on everyone, which lets everyone decide for themselves which posts are most important.

For those with an account less than 6 months old, the limit is 3 posts per 24 hours.

Although I like the high level of discussion, there is a certain amount of repetition here. This measure allows us to take some time off reading and writing to this thread, makes it easier for the lurkers to be up-to-date, and is not intended to lessen the quality at all.

Well, I learn a great deal from AnonyMint and want to thank him for taking the time and patience to respond to my questions.  He contributes a great deal and at least responds to questions (Paddington stares for you Risto) -- it makes a refreshing change from the uninformed dick-waving most here resort to.

@MatTheCat...I wouldn't take the comments about your IQ too personally, I think Anony's patience had been tested by own vast stupidity and endless questions

Oh fuck look what just happened under our nose while we were not paying attention!

https://www.goldsilverbitcoin.com/bitpay-worlds-first-zero-transaction-fee-payment-processing/




So who is paying those high fees? We the customers in the exchange rate!!! And liquidating our investment!

Fuck we've been sucked into a fiat vortex by that same bastard Peter Thiel who angel funded Facebook and Paypal.

This is war. I'm livid. It is time to get serious.

In another thread perhaps?

Never, hopefully.

We should always question Risto and everyone else. That being said, we should be paying attention to his great track record in predicting the btc future (I'm ignoring his old 300K/coin by the end of 2013 prediction )

Also I'm really happy to see that Anonymint has decided to post his thoughts in a much more approachable and readable way!

When he first started posting, his posts hinted at an obvious high degree of intelligence and analytical skills, as well as a complex and coherent vision. But his style of posting (long-winded posts, referencing his other posts in a never ending loop) was very hard to digest and his constant ad hominem attacks and one-upmanship made it hard to stay motivated to read through all of that - which is why I just kept poking fun at him and didn't engage him in any meaningful way. So - I'm very glad that here we are now, having a constructive discussion with just a minimum of personal attacks and the like.

Having followed this thread from page 1 I now feel I have a better grasp of what Anonymint is trying to tell us. It certainly seems self-consistent and plausible upon first inspection. The one thing I keep wondering while reading his posts is the competence of centralized institutions, which he seems to hold in rather high regard. For Bitcoin to have been created and implemented in a way and with motives he is describing (which certainly make sense!) one would have to assume a very high degree of competence from the players that implemented said scheme. I have great troubles viewing centralized hierarchical institutions as competent in the sense of being capable of appropriate responses to feedback, for the simple fact of how the information flow gets distorted while flowing through a hierarchical system, thus providing the governing entity with confusing and outright false information on which to base their decisions on. Maybe NSA spying and data collection techniques have helped alleviate this problem inherent in centralized entities? I would be interested to hear Anonymints thoughts on why he puts such faith in the competence of the ruling elites.

Once again thanks to everyone for the fun and enlightening discussion.

=D

Could someone please rename this thread the "Anonymint Wall Observer - Non Quality TA Thread"?

On the margins they do which can determine sentiment and thus price direction, which thus determines sentiment and thus price direction, etc..

Until we reach the overshoot wherein speculative bullishness can sustainably exceed that downward selling.

Remember velocity (exponent 1) is more important than position (exponent 0), and acceleration (inertia, exponent 2) is more important than velocity.

It is not just merchants. It is also miners who have lower profit margins so they need to sell more of the coins. It is also many n00bs that bought at high prices and can't hodl on forever if price continues to lag. You would be surprised how many people are expecting to spend their gains on upcoming expenses or needs. Some people even go into debt to invest. This is the nature of bubbles.

the fact is, merchants and reatailers still have no effect on price. even overstock is a drop n the sea.

sorry!

This is why it is going lower, much, much lower:

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20131211005909/en/BitPay-Exceeds-100000000-Bitcoin-Transactions-Processed#.Uzp95qIryho


http://seekingalpha.com/news/1465461-bitcoin-bitpay-volume-triples-m-m-european-regulators-weigh-in


Thus using an geometric series, I can estimate their December sales were $40 million, January, $120 million, February $360 million, March over a $1 billion. Now surely their Xmas surge was greater than normal M/M growth, but you can clearly see this is much larger now and very significant.

The more success Bitpay has, the worse for Bitcoin. Because Bitpay is all about liquidating BTC from investors (not bringing in proportionally new customers to the ecosystem).

How could we have missed that! (Slams forehead into the wall)

I saw the silver chart pattern indicating a long grind lower ahead, and I saw the asymmetry in appeal for merchants vs. customers, but I didn't put 2+2 together.

The Gyft owner has a bullish bias so that is why he is saying $350. In fact, markets don't work that way. They have momentum and overshoot either upwards or downwards.

Bitcoin is pointed down now and it will be a vicious cycle that feeds on itself. It is structural and we have to go down and restart from a low equilibrium.

The crucial thing is, that aminorex has been persistently wrong on the one thing I care about the most when reading this forum. Thus extremely complex things that are way over my attention span and IQ level, yet whose general conclusions are nearly always proven wrong, are in my books.....drivel.

Oh yeah...and regarding your other post about my 'adoration' for Risto. I should let you know that I happen to be in complete disagreement with his assessment at this point in time, but I find that his opinions on Bitcoin are valuable nontheless.

It could. but you need an argument for that to be stronger that the current reversal signal. I dont think it is at all likely, and wishful thinking.

I am following the game plan that we all agreed on 4 months ago. I seem to be one of the few who has not forgotten.

It could grind much lower than $300. We could be in for another brutal bear market, takes us down to $80.

I see only bull traps. We need to humble the bulls until they capitulate and realize there is serious problem with asymmetry in the Bitcoin technology and ecosystem.