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Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 265. (Read 907212 times)

legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 1087

Propaganda. Have you followed what Larry Summers said? They want digital currency so they can easily confiscate. The establishment is supporting Bitcoin because they can more easily track where all the money is.

I have not, but will look for it when I have time. I think the overall reaction of the government towards cryptos is going to turn out to be very complex. And fascinating. And one thing to keep in mind, is that there will be no unified reaction, because "the government" is run by lots of people with conflicting agendas. With campaigns funded by more people with different agendas. And varying degrees of technical sophistication.

They are trial ballooning different ways to bring the world onto a digital ledger so they can confiscate by pressing a button. Off chain on Bitcoin will be the mechanism to achieve this control.

They have nothing to fear from Bitcoin, because one pool already controls 50% of the mining. They could easily blacklist coins tomorrow if they needed to.

Now they just to manage their baby well to keep you all supporting their desired outcome of slavery.

Proof is in the facts. Bitcoin is not decentralized. You all are controlled by propaganda. The mining is already controllable by the government.

The key now is to manage it so you all don't wake up and move to an anonymous coin. To keep you all locked in by your greed and the thought the largest market size is best.

I have contemplated what sort of technical battle would ensue if the government decided to take explicit control of the blockchain.

For the sake of argument, suppose the government announced that all miners had to be "licensed" or "approved" or some such thing. How could the crypto community fight this? I suppose the community could fork the blockchain to make a branch run only by miners that were not government sponsored. Perhaps, there could be some underground network of anarcho-miners who are required to pledge their allegiance to the Ghost of Satoshi to become part of the network. There would ALWAYS be people willing to risk their lives to run this network. So I don't think the government could kill the network. What they could do, is prosecute people who are caught using the "unapproved" bitcoin blockchain. They'd probably have to crack down pretty hard. And whether they would be successful, I dunno.

Another question: what if two (or more) governments battle for control of the blockchain, so no one gets 51%? Does that mean Satoshi wins?

The U.S. government moves very slowly. If Bitcoin succeeds, the time in which that will happen will be too short for the government to fully recognize the threat and issue an effective policy to oppose it before it (Bitcoin) becomes deeply entrenched in the economy and its benefits are widely perceived. At the point, the political opposition to such a move would be too great.

The govt isn't reacting. The govt (by proxy) invented bitcoin.
sr. member
Activity: 308
Merit: 251
Giga
I kind of assumed that in order for technicals to get some harmony we'd have to get close to April 2013's ATH. However the markets seem to refuse to go below $400 even in the gravest situations.

Uncertainty remains in regards to China, does it even matter ? In a way yes but will Bitcoin go below $400? seems more and more unlikely.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
Did you read the article or not?
yes I did read the article. he said it will form a base in the next quarter, not crash. as for the range he describes, why would you believe he has the formula to predict $350 bottom?  436 bottom has given us all the signals we need.
all the past bubbles have consolidated in a wedge. thats a sequence of 5. if the price dropped to 350, this one would break that rule. wedges have significant meaning in consolidation.

Did you read his points about why there is now more structural selling? Specifically that there are too many retailers and retailers convert immediately to fiat. And consumers are not growing as fast. Because Bitcoin is wonderful for merchants (no chargebacks) but sucks for consumers .

dont forget that the mother of all uses of bitcoin will be money transfer. That could be organised in months. anything to do with retailers and consumers have never had an impact on the market. the market cap is speculative.

Marginal flows.
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
Did you read the article or not?
yes I did read the article. he said it will form a base in the next quarter, not crash. as for the range he describes, why would you believe he has the formula to predict $350 bottom?  436 bottom has given us all the signals we need.
all the past bubbles have consolidated in a wedge. thats a sequence of 5. if the price dropped to 350, this one would break that rule. wedges have significant meaning in consolidation.

Did you read his points about why there is now more structural selling? Specifically that there are too many retailers and retailers convert immediately to fiat. And consumers are not growing as fast. Because Bitcoin is wonderful for merchants (no chargebacks) but sucks for consumers .

dont forget that the mother of all uses of bitcoin will be money transfer. That could be organised in months. anything to do with retailers and consumers have never had an impact on the market. the market cap is speculative.


hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
Did you read the article or not?
yes I did read the article. he said it will form a base in the next quarter, not crash. as for the range he describes, why would you believe he has the formula to predict $350 bottom?  436 bottom has given us all the signals we need.
all the past bubbles have consolidated in a wedge. thats a sequence of 5. if the price dropped to 350, this one would break that rule. wedges have significant meaning in consolidation.

Did you read his points about why there is now more structural selling? Specifically that there are too many retailers and retailers convert immediately to fiat. And consumers are not growing as fast. Because Bitcoin is wonderful for merchants (no chargebacks) but sucks for consumers .
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
http://www.wired.com/2014/03/bitcoin-currency_martin/

Bitcoin Is Pointless as a Currency, But It Could Change the World Anyway

Quote
Why Bitcoin May Be Different

If history is a guide, it is here that bitcoin’s real potential lies: in its hybrid payments technology. As Europe’s medieval merchant-bankers proved, a brilliant new means of recording and verifying money transfers can indeed be a revolutionary event — not just in economic, but in political terms.

The existing, bank-based payments system is expensive and antediluvian — but also profitable and therefore jealously guarded by its powerful owners. Other technologies co-exist — such as cash payment face-to-face, or the developing world staple of hawala for international transfers — but they cannot seriously compete with banks. If Bitcoin’s technology is as cheap, as scalable, and as secure as its advocates claim, it may be different.

That last point, of course, is crucial. One reason that cash, that most archaic of payments technologies, still exists, is because it really is anonymous. Anonymity in transactions can be abused, of course. But it remains a basic civil liberty. Payments systems that use ledgers rarely offer the same assurance. Efficiency and economy are nice to have: but not at the cost of our right to privacy.
If history is a guide, it is here that bitcoin’s real potential lies: in its hybrid payments technology.

It was thirty-five years ago — long before bitcoin, the internet, or even the Macintosh — that the French philosopher Jean-Francois Lyotard warned that “the computerization of society…could become the ‘dream’ instrument for controlling and regulating the market system, extended to include knowledge itself and governed exclusively by the performativity principle.” An unreasonably dystopian vision, perhaps, given the enormous increases in prosperity and individual freedom that the web has brought. But it is only now that computerization is transforming money — the most basic institution of all in our market societies. So it is a dystopia we must make all the more certain does not become reality.
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
Did you read the article or not?
yes I did read the article. he said it will form a base in the next quarter, not crash. as for the range he describes, why would you believe he has the formula to predict $350 bottom?  436 bottom has given us all the signals we need.
all the past bubbles have consolidated in a wedge. thats a sequence of 5. if the price dropped to 350, this one would break that rule. wedges have significant meaning in consolidation.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
Did you read the article or not?
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
No, the china news was THE hype, and when the news is 100% confirmed, evan as exchange halts deposits, the market rallies???

This is a text book reversal, the panic selling is over, spent, gone, exhausted, caput!
 
"I sold, game over" - that is a give away!

This is a text book reversal. watch it before your very eyes, a rally comes out of no where, and like a hot knife through butter eats resistance.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
sorry, but selling pressure has not increased, it has decreased.

yesterday everyones fear was confirmed, and it had no fundamental or speculative follow through. The down trend is over.

You are fooled by looking only at short-term day trading data.

The selling pressure is now structural and will not abate for months. See the article from the Gyft founder, which I quoted a few posts upthread.
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
sorry, but selling pressure has not increased, it has decreased.

yesterday everyones fear was confirmed, and it had no fundamental or speculative follow through. The down trend is over.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521


Risto's posts are amongst those that I generally read through well. Most of the rest on here (unless post is short and happens to catch my eye), I don't bother even reading cos I know exactly the drivel to expect and don't want to waste mental energy trying to make sense of it. .

Ah.  Wise.  It is often best to conserve when resources are scarce.

And Risto has apparently entirely missed the reasons that the selling pressure has increased. See my prior post. So that is what you deserve for idoling one man.
legendary
Activity: 2016
Merit: 1259


Risto's posts are amongst those that I generally read through well. Most of the rest on here (unless post is short and happens to catch my eye), I don't bother even reading cos I know exactly the drivel to expect and don't want to waste mental energy trying to make sense of it. .

Ah.  Wise.  It is often best to conserve when resources are scarce.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
https://medium.com/p/ba5f3fcce103

Finding Equilibrium : Searching for the true value of a Bitcoin

Vinny Lingham, CEO of Gyft, discusses some of the current forces affecting the price of bitcoin. A very worthwhile read imho.

Excellent article. I agree with everything he wrote.

I also have made the point that Bitcoin asymmetrically favors merchants at this stage. And he points that out well.

Risto you should read that article above. Then you will understand where the selling pressure is coming from and what has changed.


If it turns around I would start worrying after it passes 550

I have a question to the bears. If the price does in fact go the other way at what level will you start buying back? At what level will you panik buy?

so everything lower 550 would be just a bulltrap for you?
i think that will be the problem for the bears, as soon as the green volume bars start to be larger than the red volume bars, it could be the reversal or only a bull trap.  Cool

I don't expect a V reversal. I am waiting for it to get errie quiet after everyone has capitulated and exhausted their fiat capital.

I expect a long U reversal.

However working against my scenario is the bottom price rises about $10-15 per week that this drags out.


What is to be gained by denying the current issues we are presented with.  (and I'm talking as a 'community' rather than personal or individual gain.)

I repeat: there are no new issues. It is a common scare-tactic to raise some evergreen issues when it is important to fool the newcomers.

Therefore "presented with" reveals you agenda pretty well  Cheesy
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
I give credit to Risto for taking all the abuse from people that he does and doing so in a mature manner. He works hard on his TA and shares it for free with the crum bums on this board and all they do is challenge him. Imo he's one of the 5-10 people on this board who are actually worth reading.

Risto's posts are amongst those that I generally read through well. Most of the rest on here (unless post is short and happens to catch my eye), I don't bother even reading cos I know exactly the drivel to expect and don't want to waste mental energy trying to make sense of it. Worst of all are the drivel merchants who aggrandise their drivel with fancy jargon and complex concepts. There has been one in particular who has been at large (aminorex) recently in this thread that has resulted in the past few pages here being a total skim read for me....unless I see a poster with a reliable track record of good posts.

You are unable to comprehend what aminorex is writing. His posts are not drivel, and apparently it is just way over your IQ range or perhaps your area of mental interest and attention span.

Risto's posts often lack depth, which is why simpletons like them. He is correct on the main point which is BTC will bottom then continue up. That is probably all you need to know.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
P.S. Isn't there a  $600 exclusion for reporting on bartering? I need to look into that.

Clarification on the tax issue from a US tax attorney.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/21una0/i_am_a_tax_attorney_here_is_the_truth_about_1099s/

Thought it could be valuable since some of the posters here seem to have it slightly wrong.

Thanks that reminded me the $600 exclusion is on reporting payments, not on reporting gains.
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
there are 12 million millionaires in the world, and 1500 billionaires. there are only 21 million bitcoins, and I imagine most of those people dont have any.

That 21 million will never stand as the asymptotic limit (actually it isn't asymptotic because the finite limit of divisibility is 1 Satoshi), because there is no way the world's billionaires will hand power to Risto et al (of course not!). That is pure fantasy like a overgrown, naive children playing a board game. There are multiple ways it can be increased.

  • Off chain is the only way Bitcoin will go mainstream. Coins will be created just as the private banks did with gold certificates in the 1800s with gold on deposit.
  • It is impossible that altcoins won't proliferate because Bitcoin can't offer every feature.
  • One pool controls 50+% of the hash power, even one ASIC miner controls 10%. Government control of that pool (and a few miners) can force more coins to be created. This won't be done now, instead later when the lockdown is more ubiquitous and you have no way to avoid this control.


they wouldn't have to hand over power, not the first ones. many will have a keen eye for investments, and will trickle capital into it.

in time, this will prove binary. some will be left behind. Thats not a naive fantasy, in fact it's a back stabbing game some billionaires might like to play.

Of coarse I dont mean there is a shortage of bitcoin, but if everyone wanted just one of those coins, the price would be millions per coin easy.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521

I sold all. Game over.

BINGO!

Buy back in soon. Bitcoin isn't over. No chance.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
there are 12 million millionaires in the world, and 1500 billionaires. there are only 21 million bitcoins, and I imagine most of those people dont have any.

That 21 million will never stand as the asymptotic limit (actually it isn't asymptotic because the finite limit of divisibility is 1 Satoshi), because there is no way the world's billionaires will hand power to Risto et al (of course not!). That is pure fantasy like slumber party of overgrown, naive children playing a board game. There are multiple ways it can be increased.

  • Off chain is the only way Bitcoin will go mainstream. Coins will be created just as the private banks did with gold certificates in the 1800s with gold on deposit.
  • It is impossible that altcoins won't proliferate because Bitcoin can't offer every feature.
  • One pool controls 50+% of the hash power, even one ASIC miner controls 10%. Government control of that pool (and a few miners) can force more coins to be created. This won't be done now, instead later when the lockdown is more ubiquitous and you have no way to avoid this control.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
Mining isn't producing a unique work. It is providing a repetitive service that is scripted by the network. The litmus test is that the network is the manager, not the miner. The network sets the difficulty, the protocol, etc..

A network cannot manage anyone.  Management flows in the opposite direction.  Mining a block produces a novel work.

The network dictates which hash to solve. Which is what the miner is paid for doing. Everything else the miners do is optional in the protocol and thus incidental.
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