Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 98. (Read 907229 times)

Miners are in small numbers so they don't matter to the whole Paypal&Bitpay mix.

paypal news potentially interesting, but I don't see how these two can mix.
Paypal just introduced a new draconian TOS where someone can return your goods full 180 days after purchasing if they are not "significantly as described" whatever that means.
I don't think I will be selling anything of value and, specifically, bitcoin related on ebay/paypal after this POS/TOS goes into effect on Nov 18.
All used miners have to go beforehand, as risking a FULL return after 179 days is too much to consider.

The Paypal news is HUGE imo. This is going to attract a lot more eyes to BTC. Regardless of the effect of BTC holders making more purchases now, I really think that with full Paypal integration, BTC starts another phase. This is like a huge Advertisement. It "coincidentally" happened at a really interesting point in the chart as well. Funny how that works out...

I am very curious about what happens over the next few weeks. I say this starts a new uptrend. Perhaps not the big one we are looking for but at least a bounce to 600 ish...

Quoting this for info:
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More info: http://www.bfxdata.com/combined/btc.php

I think it's just buying because of the paypal news.

Here is the 15-minute resolution chart showing what I believe to be a short-covering bitcoin price rally. Large blocks are being purchased on Bitstamp. Gold prices have rallied a bit in the last hour too.

Why sell all ?  Why do not keep 1 BTC (10 BTC ... who knows)

Your observation brings up another interesting thought.  What if most millionaires and billionaires don't really care about bitcoin any more than a relative short term investment?  Meaning, they'll probably give it one try, hold for 12 months, wait for the leg-up multiplier, and sell at the top?  Then take the returns and invest them elsewhere while the bitcoin market is in a long downturn?  And what if they don't come back to bitcoin after that one experience?

What if the only true long-term 'holders' are the common people, who never see the same types of overall yearly returns as millionaires/billionaires, because they have all their capital 'tied up' in bitcoin for far too long?

Bitcoin is a creation of the new money billionaires who are fighting a war with the old money billionaires.

Richard Branson et al cannot come out and simply say so, but btc is a direct challenge to the centralised power structures.

Look at the actions of the new money billionaires like Branson and Gates, they spend billions trying to make the world a better place.

The old money like the rothschilds who own the banking system, and many other things, rely on centralised power structures to maintain their position.

The new money billionaires like Gates, Branson etc make more money with further decentralisation.

For people who think the Rothschilds are not hugely powerful you only have to see how one junior 30 year old family member gets exposedi n a multibillion dollar trade deal involving russian oligarchs, members of parliament etc to imagine what his father/uncles are up to.

The old money rely on centralised power structures, such as the CIA/military industrial complex. A recent example was Gadaffi, they fund him, they put him into power, they allow him to accumulate the worlds largest fortune (500 bn) and then when he's no longer useful they kill him off, and none of his fortune is recovered. All those hundreds of billions he thought he'd safely stashed in their offshore banks, siphoned off by the old money.

Old money make money by destruction and control, new money make money thru freedom and enterprise.

There is a war on, and decentralisation is the trenches. Bitcoin is but one tool.

the plan was to get him an account at stamp, which worked - but to get a confirmed account never worked (they have not accepted his documents, we never got beyond this point) he actually bought from me.

Where did he buy at?

my landlord is a multi-millionaire. i got her and her sons convinced to invest in btc last may/june. first thing that happened was we were 50% down ( i invested at the same days ) when october came and price went 10% above the price we went in, they wanted to sell. they wanted to sell almost every day through november and i strongly advised them every time to hold.
when their investment had 10-folded they sold. I didn't. they don't care about bitcoin as a technology. it was just a funny investment. I may be too much in love with bitcoin to ever sell, but next run up, i try to perform a little bit better.
There is another friend in the millionaire category that i got interested in. he invested in october/november, average about $ 250, never sold and heute is actually interested in the tech, but even services like bitstamp he cannot comprehend, it is all way too complicated for him.

Isn't this cool? I like that property. The people have the chance to turn the pyramid upside down in a sense...

I think we need more education, though: a lot of people still seem to think they have to buy a whole bitcoin (who can blame them, the term 'coin' implies this) and the /r/bitcoin crowd happily sends everyone to circle/coinbase.

The bitcoin game has the interesting property that incentivises/allows easier access for smaller (yet more knowledgeable) players to get in first ... the entrance only grows large enough for the next larger level of players at each stage ... the biggest position takers in fiat terms will probably be the last to arrive under this logic.

This is a great point too.  0.1% hedges are perhaps too small to bother with; on the other hand, should the market-cap significantly increase, 10% hedges would be painful.  The "hedging dynamics" will get interesting around the 1% level I think (as you implied as well).  

A good friend of mine serves as a case study. He's a very successful businessman in the multi-millionaire category. I convinced him at the beginning of the run up last fall to buy a sizable chunk of btc, at average buy-in price just below $400. His only bitcoin-related comment to me during 2014 was to take note of the fact that the bitcoin price was "in the shitter." He sold a few months ago (against my advice) at about $600, for better than 50% profit. The timing of the sale had more to do with the fact that he needed the cash for a new business venture than for anything related to bitcoin. But the fact is that despite his favorable experience investing in bitcoin, he still isn't interested enough to dig into bitcoin fundamentals.

It takes a LOT of time, energy, and research to be confident enough that you are a better judge of bitcoin's long term viability than the market. Most people still don't have the incentive to do that; and if they are not tech-savvy, they will continue to doubt bitcoin until the moment they can see it in action, up close and personal.

What would it take for my friend to buy into it again? I'm not sure. But if I could take him and his wife out to dinner and pay for it in bitcoin -- that might do it.

One possibility is that 0.1% hedges are simply too small to bother. This may happen but only at some 1% or higher level.

Personally, I also believe that millionaires are a lot more interesting than billionaires because 1) there are a lot more of them, 2) in the aggregate they can make a considerable impact on the BTC market, 3) they are more likely (in the Rpietila line of thinking) to be willing to take a position in BTC, and 4) there may be some other reasons that they are an interesting group.. eg they may not be so stuffy and are more connected with world activities, which relates back to point 3.

Richard Branson and Michael Novogratz have stated publicly that they have a BTC position. Ray Dalio said he thinks Bitcoin is interesting, Bill Gates too. Peter Thiel invested in Bitpay.

let's focus on millionaires then, as they seem to be more conducive to bitcoin appeal .

It is probably not allowed to them.

There are things you cannot do if you are poor. Then there are things you cannot do if you are a billionaire. Both groups intuitively know them. The things are very different.