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Topic: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;) - page 95. (Read 907229 times)

legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 4331
I am curious about long term scenarios. We all know about 21 mil max bitcoins. However, if and when COIN or BIT will start trading, what would prevent Wall Street to multiply the number of supposedly strictly restricted number of units 10 or 100 fold? Nobody ever challenged GLD ETF to show that they actually own the amount of gold they supposed to have. Brokerages already using hypothecation for stocks, which together with other techniques in case of heavily shorted stocks is rumored to vastly increase the number of shares for some companies.

On the other hand, Bill Gates could sneeze in the morning and "accidentally" use one-one and a half day worth of his dividends and bitcoin will be above $1000  Smiley.

It's impossible. There is more GLD ETF then ever has been mined. GLD in its fine print says that they will settle accounts in cash if it comes to that. It is fraud sanctioned by the US government. It keeps the price artificially suppressed so their fiat lives on. There is no audit trail. It is kabuki theater. The only ETF that I know of that has audited gold with serial numbers is Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS). Same thing with silver. SLV is a fraud. PSLV is legit.

If so, the same nonsense might be repeated with COIN.
legendary
Activity: 1582
Merit: 1019
011110000110110101110010
I am curious about long term scenarios. We all know about 21 mil max bitcoins. However, if and when COIN or BIT will start trading, what would prevent Wall Street to multiply the number of supposedly strictly restricted number of units 10 or 100 fold? Nobody ever challenged GLD ETF to show that they actually own the amount of gold they supposed to have. Brokerages already using hypothecation for stocks, which together with other techniques in case of heavily shorted stocks is rumored to vastly increase the number of shares for some companies.

On the other hand, Bill Gates could sneeze in the morning and "accidentally" use one-one and a half day worth of his dividends and bitcoin will be above $1000  Smiley.

It's impossible. There is more GLD ETF then ever has been mined. GLD in its fine print says that they will settle accounts in cash if it comes to that. It is fraud sanctioned by the US government. It keeps the price artificially suppressed so their fiat lives on. There is no audit trail. It is kabuki theater. The only ETF that I know of that has audited gold with serial numbers is Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS). Same thing with silver. SLV is a fraud. PSLV is legit.
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 4331
I am curious about long term scenarios. We all know about 21 mil max bitcoins. However, if and when COIN or BIT will start trading, what would prevent Wall Street to multiply the number of supposedly strictly restricted number of units 10 or 100 fold? Nobody ever challenged GLD ETF to show that they actually own the amount of gold they supposed to have. Brokerages already using hypothecation for stocks, which together with other techniques in case of heavily shorted stocks is rumored to vastly increase the number of shares for some companies.

On the other hand, Bill Gates could sneeze in the morning and "accidentally" use one-one and a half day worth of his dividends and bitcoin will be above $1000  Smiley.
hero member
Activity: 588
Merit: 500
I think we have to watch 3d for the J line cross and then be prepared to move to a short time period when price starts moving quickly.

Personally I'm making longer term trades in and out of the market with 10-20% of my holdings...so 3d is fine in my case.
Some people may want to put a magnifying glass to the market and try to gain on every 15 min blip...not me.  

The 3 day KDJ is brilliant as far as I'm concerned.

 
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 501
Stephen Reed
[Hey Stephen....as I mentioned on cryptocrypt last week...I believe the KDJ is one of the best indicators I've found so far but I believe we have to look for the J line to cross below 20 for a buy signal. It is currently reaching into that territory. Notice how the lower crossovers exactly pinpoint the bottom before a rise and the higher crossovers pinpoint the coming drop...this indicator seems to lead very nicely. 

I will consider it a very strong buy signal if we get a sharp upward crossover below 20...if you see the J line cross and stay above (on the 3d chart) you know the time has come.

I am buying fractional coin each month and do not plan to trade until we get the next bubble peak, i.e. I am buying now regardless of indicators.  However algorithmic trading methods are very interesting. I just learned about the KDJ indicator, and maybe from you. I like the weekly chart and the long term swings.

Do you have a preferred time-resolution for the KDJ indicator - assuming zero trading fees as can obtained on the liquid Chinese exchanges?

-Stephen
hero member
Activity: 588
Merit: 500
[log price chart]
[variation from trend chart]

Nice charts. I especially like the central tendency illustration over the past 12 months.

Here is the one-week resolution log chart of Bitstamp prices with your regression line approximated by me. The bottom technical indicator is the KDJ as provided by Bitcoin Wisdom. A backtested strategy suggests buying when the J line (purple) rises above 50 and selling when the J line falls below 50.



Hey Stephen....as I mentioned on cryptocrypt last week...I believe the KDJ is one of the best indicators I've found so far but I believe we have to look for the J line to cross below 20 for a buy signal. It is currently reaching into that territory. Notice how the lower crossovers exactly pinpoint the bottom before a rise and the higher crossovers pinpoint the coming drop...this indicator seems to lead very nicely. 

I will consider it a very strong buy signal if we get a sharp upward crossover below 20...if you see the J line cross and stay above (on the 3d chart) you know the time has come.


legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1072
Crypto is the separation of Power and State.
Unless we make a significant new low (below $266 would qualify), we have just made a multi-month double bottom, an incredibly bullish signal, way more bullish than the 1-month double bottom at $2 in 2011.

QFI:
Quote
Unless we make a significant new low (below $266 would qualify), we have just made a multi-month double bottom, an incredibly bullish signal, way more bullish than the 1-month double bottom at $2 in 2011.


I see so many people with bullish expectations...that seems like a bearish indicator to a contrarian like me.   Cheesy
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
Unless we make a significant new low (below $266 would qualify), we have just made a multi-month double bottom, an incredibly bullish signal, way more bullish than the 1-month double bottom at $2 in 2011.

QFI:
Quote
Unless we make a significant new low (below $266 would qualify), we have just made a multi-month double bottom, an incredibly bullish signal, way more bullish than the 1-month double bottom at $2 in 2011.
legendary
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1008
Delusional crypto obsessionist
[log price chart]
[variation from trend chart]
A backtested strategy suggests buying when the J line (purple) rises above 50 and selling when the J line falls below 50.
January 9th 2012 would not have been a really good time to buy.
Although other moments would have been a very good time to buy according to the strategy.

hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 501
Stephen Reed
[log price chart]
[variation from trend chart]

Nice charts. I especially like the central tendency illustration over the past 12 months.

Here is the one-week resolution log chart of Bitstamp prices with your regression line approximated by me. The bottom technical indicator is the KDJ as provided by Bitcoin Wisdom. A backtested strategy suggests buying when the J line (purple) rises above 50 and selling when the J line falls below 50.

sr. member
Activity: 263
Merit: 280
Risto,

Chart inspired in yours, but with spread = zero from the genesis to the MtGox start.

01-10-2014:
Weighted price: 378.84
Trend price = 1269.11
Spread = -0.53  -->  -70%

legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1010
he who has the gold makes the rules
rpietilla, what's your price projection for the end of the year? is btc going further into bear market or we will see a recovery?
He called the bottom 1,5 month ago.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/rpietila-calling-the-bottom-740394

I think there are not many people who really know.

I also called the bottom 2 weeks ago, now look Smiley


I knew this was happening.. we arent at a bottom yet... it all depends on LTC not btc...  we need to go down on LTC then both will bottom.
Can you explain what LTC got to do with this?

Ive got it in my posts i posted a bunch of times.. its volume/price correlation. Been using it for over a year... its what kept me out since then (well not really... i bought some at a little under $500 to buy btsx which I am up as a whole on because im largely more bullish on btsx than btc right now). It's also what will get me in at the right time.. and I think we are close.

Do you perhaps have a link or topic where btsx is briefly explained?

http://prestonbyrne.com/2014/08/17/dont-walk-away-run/

Marmot assets FTW

That couldn't be more biased even if he tried.

Try this http://bitshares.org/faq/... essentially the only risk is the asset peg bitUSD to $1.. a oroblem all blockchain 2.0 currencies are trying to solve. I believe for the time being BM got it right and its on the up and up for now... until the time comes when we release the price feed and have the system get off of its trainign wheels. By then volume should be high enought o justify prices beyond the scope of comprehension.

The risk for US-based owners of bitshares is that this is digital stock trading platform. The government has laws against these types of activities unless sanctioned.

you are not very familiar with the securities regulations. it is perfectly okay for people to trade things, including unregistered securities so long as they file their taxes and report earnings.  the problem, and not just for Americans, is that an American company issues unregistered shares and markets them to the American public, in which case you can look to Mr. Voorhees for what the end result is.

Umm AllSportsMarket tried it and regulators shut them down. They traded digital stocks and it ran afoul of US Regulators. That is why they had to create the Sports Risk Index. They have been 4 years at least trying to work through all of the red tape.

You should be more precise in what you write.  

I cannot gather from what you write whether they were shut down for running an unregistered exchange, similar to BTCT.CO, or issuing shares without filing proper paperwork, or for marketing unregistered shares to the general public.

People are allowed to trade financial instruments amongst themselves, even bearer instruments, which are illegal to issue in the USA.  They simply need to report ownership and tax implications.  Companies marketing them on the other hand.
legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1005
rpietilla, what's your price projection for the end of the year? is btc going further into bear market or we will see a recovery?
He called the bottom 1,5 month ago.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/rpietila-calling-the-bottom-740394

I think there are not many people who really know.

I also called the bottom 2 weeks ago, now look Smiley


I knew this was happening.. we arent at a bottom yet... it all depends on LTC not btc...  we need to go down on LTC then both will bottom.
Can you explain what LTC got to do with this?

Ive got it in my posts i posted a bunch of times.. its volume/price correlation. Been using it for over a year... its what kept me out since then (well not really... i bought some at a little under $500 to buy btsx which I am up as a whole on because im largely more bullish on btsx than btc right now). It's also what will get me in at the right time.. and I think we are close.

Do you perhaps have a link or topic where btsx is briefly explained?

http://prestonbyrne.com/2014/08/17/dont-walk-away-run/

Marmot assets FTW

That couldn't be more biased even if he tried.

Try this http://bitshares.org/faq/... essentially the only risk is the asset peg bitUSD to $1.. a oroblem all blockchain 2.0 currencies are trying to solve. I believe for the time being BM got it right and its on the up and up for now... until the time comes when we release the price feed and have the system get off of its trainign wheels. By then volume should be high enought o justify prices beyond the scope of comprehension.

The risk for US-based owners of bitshares is that this is digital stock trading platform. The government has laws against these types of activities unless sanctioned.

you are not very familiar with the securities regulations. it is perfectly okay for people to trade things, including unregistered securities so long as they file their taxes and report earnings.  the problem, and not just for Americans, is that an American company issues unregistered shares and markets them to the American public, in which case you can look to Mr. Voorhees for what the end result is.

Umm AllSportsMarket tried it and regulators shut them down. They traded digital stocks and it ran afoul of US Regulators. That is why they had to create the Sports Risk Index. They have been 4 years at least trying to work through all of the red tape.

Uses $ all over the UI so it represents winnings in $... if this is true then its a money transmitter if you can deposit/withdraw fiat. I saw in Aug they got tax exempt status meaning they are labelled a charity, not sure how/why this would work for this business. The fact that the UI is literred with $ means it can't be the same as bitshares.
legendary
Activity: 1582
Merit: 1019
011110000110110101110010
rpietilla, what's your price projection for the end of the year? is btc going further into bear market or we will see a recovery?
He called the bottom 1,5 month ago.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/rpietila-calling-the-bottom-740394

I think there are not many people who really know.

I also called the bottom 2 weeks ago, now look Smiley


I knew this was happening.. we arent at a bottom yet... it all depends on LTC not btc...  we need to go down on LTC then both will bottom.
Can you explain what LTC got to do with this?

Ive got it in my posts i posted a bunch of times.. its volume/price correlation. Been using it for over a year... its what kept me out since then (well not really... i bought some at a little under $500 to buy btsx which I am up as a whole on because im largely more bullish on btsx than btc right now). It's also what will get me in at the right time.. and I think we are close.

Do you perhaps have a link or topic where btsx is briefly explained?

http://prestonbyrne.com/2014/08/17/dont-walk-away-run/

Marmot assets FTW

That couldn't be more biased even if he tried.

Try this http://bitshares.org/faq/... essentially the only risk is the asset peg bitUSD to $1.. a oroblem all blockchain 2.0 currencies are trying to solve. I believe for the time being BM got it right and its on the up and up for now... until the time comes when we release the price feed and have the system get off of its trainign wheels. By then volume should be high enought o justify prices beyond the scope of comprehension.

The risk for US-based owners of bitshares is that this is digital stock trading platform. The government has laws against these types of activities unless sanctioned.

you are not very familiar with the securities regulations. it is perfectly okay for people to trade things, including unregistered securities so long as they file their taxes and report earnings.  the problem, and not just for Americans, is that an American company issues unregistered shares and markets them to the American public, in which case you can look to Mr. Voorhees for what the end result is.

Umm AllSportsMarket tried it and regulators shut them down. They traded digital stocks and it ran afoul of US Regulators. That is why they had to create the Sports Risk Index. They have been 4 years at least trying to work through all of the red tape.
legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1005
Yea I think if you misrepresent what you are selling that is an issue, or if you introduce fiat or regulated securities to mix in with unregulated ones.
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1010
he who has the gold makes the rules
rpietilla, what's your price projection for the end of the year? is btc going further into bear market or we will see a recovery?
He called the bottom 1,5 month ago.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/rpietila-calling-the-bottom-740394

I think there are not many people who really know.

I also called the bottom 2 weeks ago, now look Smiley


I knew this was happening.. we arent at a bottom yet... it all depends on LTC not btc...  we need to go down on LTC then both will bottom.
Can you explain what LTC got to do with this?

Ive got it in my posts i posted a bunch of times.. its volume/price correlation. Been using it for over a year... its what kept me out since then (well not really... i bought some at a little under $500 to buy btsx which I am up as a whole on because im largely more bullish on btsx than btc right now). It's also what will get me in at the right time.. and I think we are close.

Do you perhaps have a link or topic where btsx is briefly explained?

http://prestonbyrne.com/2014/08/17/dont-walk-away-run/

Marmot assets FTW

That couldn't be more biased even if he tried.

Try this http://bitshares.org/faq/... essentially the only risk is the asset peg bitUSD to $1.. a oroblem all blockchain 2.0 currencies are trying to solve. I believe for the time being BM got it right and its on the up and up for now... until the time comes when we release the price feed and have the system get off of its trainign wheels. By then volume should be high enought o justify prices beyond the scope of comprehension.

The risk for US-based owners of bitshares is that this is digital stock trading platform. The government has laws against these types of activities unless sanctioned.

you are not very familiar with the securities regulations. it is perfectly okay for people to trade things, including unregistered securities so long as they file their taxes and report earnings.  the problem, and not just for Americans, is that an American company issues unregistered shares and markets them to the American public, in which case you can look to Mr. Voorhees for what the end result is.
legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1005
rpietilla, what's your price projection for the end of the year? is btc going further into bear market or we will see a recovery?
He called the bottom 1,5 month ago.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/rpietila-calling-the-bottom-740394

I think there are not many people who really know.

I also called the bottom 2 weeks ago, now look Smiley


I knew this was happening.. we arent at a bottom yet... it all depends on LTC not btc...  we need to go down on LTC then both will bottom.
Can you explain what LTC got to do with this?

Ive got it in my posts i posted a bunch of times.. its volume/price correlation. Been using it for over a year... its what kept me out since then (well not really... i bought some at a little under $500 to buy btsx which I am up as a whole on because im largely more bullish on btsx than btc right now). It's also what will get me in at the right time.. and I think we are close.

Do you perhaps have a link or topic where btsx is briefly explained?

http://prestonbyrne.com/2014/08/17/dont-walk-away-run/

Marmot assets FTW

That couldn't be more biased even if he tried.

Try this http://bitshares.org/faq/... essentially the only risk is the asset peg bitUSD to $1.. a oroblem all blockchain 2.0 currencies are trying to solve. I believe for the time being BM got it right and its on the up and up for now... until the time comes when we release the price feed and have the system get off of its trainign wheels. By then volume should be high enought o justify prices beyond the scope of comprehension.

The risk for US-based owners of bitshares is that this is digital stock trading platform. The government has laws against these types of activities unless sanctioned.

There is  no fiat involved thus totally legal. It's just open source software. If it's banned in US because of being a money transmitter somehow that doesn't stop other jurisdictions from benefiting the obvious increase in efficiency in our everyday lives. If US decides to not adopt, it is their loss and other's may come out ahead in the technology revolution/knowledge era which is the next driver of economic prosperity.
legendary
Activity: 1582
Merit: 1019
011110000110110101110010
rpietilla, what's your price projection for the end of the year? is btc going further into bear market or we will see a recovery?
He called the bottom 1,5 month ago.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/rpietila-calling-the-bottom-740394

I think there are not many people who really know.

I also called the bottom 2 weeks ago, now look Smiley


I knew this was happening.. we arent at a bottom yet... it all depends on LTC not btc...  we need to go down on LTC then both will bottom.
Can you explain what LTC got to do with this?

Ive got it in my posts i posted a bunch of times.. its volume/price correlation. Been using it for over a year... its what kept me out since then (well not really... i bought some at a little under $500 to buy btsx which I am up as a whole on because im largely more bullish on btsx than btc right now). It's also what will get me in at the right time.. and I think we are close.

Do you perhaps have a link or topic where btsx is briefly explained?

http://prestonbyrne.com/2014/08/17/dont-walk-away-run/

Marmot assets FTW

That couldn't be more biased even if he tried.

Try this http://bitshares.org/faq/... essentially the only risk is the asset peg bitUSD to $1.. a oroblem all blockchain 2.0 currencies are trying to solve. I believe for the time being BM got it right and its on the up and up for now... until the time comes when we release the price feed and have the system get off of its trainign wheels. By then volume should be high enought o justify prices beyond the scope of comprehension.

The risk for US-based owners of bitshares is that this is digital stock trading platform. The government has laws against these types of activities unless sanctioned.
legendary
Activity: 2044
Merit: 1005
rpietilla, what's your price projection for the end of the year? is btc going further into bear market or we will see a recovery?
He called the bottom 1,5 month ago.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/rpietila-calling-the-bottom-740394

I think there are not many people who really know.

I also called the bottom 2 weeks ago, now look Smiley


I knew this was happening.. we arent at a bottom yet... it all depends on LTC not btc...  we need to go down on LTC then both will bottom.
Can you explain what LTC got to do with this?

Ive got it in my posts i posted a bunch of times.. its volume/price correlation. Been using it for over a year... its what kept me out since then (well not really... i bought some at a little under $500 to buy btsx which I am up as a whole on because im largely more bullish on btsx than btc right now). It's also what will get me in at the right time.. and I think we are close.

Do you perhaps have a link or topic where btsx is briefly explained?

http://prestonbyrne.com/2014/08/17/dont-walk-away-run/

Marmot assets FTW

That couldn't be more biased even if he tried.

Try this http://bitshares.org/faq/... essentially the only risk is the asset peg bitUSD to $1.. a oroblem all blockchain 2.0 currencies are trying to solve. I believe for the time being BM got it right and its on the up and up for now... until the time comes when we release the price feed and have the system get off of its trainign wheels. By then volume should be high enought o justify prices beyond the scope of comprehension.
legendary
Activity: 1624
Merit: 1008
rpietilla, what's your price projection for the end of the year? is btc going further into bear market or we will see a recovery?
He called the bottom 1,5 month ago.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/rpietila-calling-the-bottom-740394

I think there are not many people who really know.

I also called the bottom 2 weeks ago, now look Smiley


I knew this was happening.. we arent at a bottom yet... it all depends on LTC not btc...  we need to go down on LTC then both will bottom.
Can you explain what LTC got to do with this?

Ive got it in my posts i posted a bunch of times.. its volume/price correlation. Been using it for over a year... its what kept me out since then (well not really... i bought some at a little under $500 to buy btsx which I am up as a whole on because im largely more bullish on btsx than btc right now). It's also what will get me in at the right time.. and I think we are close.

Do you perhaps have a link or topic where btsx is briefly explained?

http://prestonbyrne.com/2014/08/17/dont-walk-away-run/

Marmot assets FTW
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