Topic: Rumor that Bitmain is going belly up! can't pay its chip builder! - page 8. (Read 19767 times)

The diff math shows that not a lot of new gear is rolling out.

M10
S15
Inno turbo

they are not selling like mad.

What has happened here is :

 12 cent
 10 cent
   8 cent   all lose money at 5500 a btc coin.

with the s9 mining.
with the avalon 841 mining

to turn profit  at 8 cents  you need 100 watts at 1th

an s9 doing 14000 gh at 1400 watts at 8 cents makes 24 cents a day.

So a hosting of an s9  at 1.4 x 24 x 30 = 1008 kwatts  a 30 day month  so at 8 cents  that is 80.64 a kwatt

So if you have a contract for 10 kwatts that is 806.40 a month  to be at break even roughly 7 s9's

We all know the network has 65% s9 gear  all of it at 8 cents and up is dead.

So I ask you  if you have 7 s-9's  at 806.40 a month  (8cents)  and your 6 month renewal bill is due    will you want to pay 4838.40  fuck no you won't

So many hosting sites are going underwater.

If you have done okay for the last few years you may want to consider  mining at a loss with s9's rather then buying some s15

what is a pair of s15's 1475 + 1475 = 2950 add shipping add tax you are over 4050

what do you get  56th at 3200 watts at full speed

what are 4 s9's  56th at 5600 watts at full speed.

2.4kwatts x 24 hours = 57.6kwatts a day or 5.76 cents at 10 cent power  cost 4050

bitmain s9 on ebay with psu = 325 x 4 = 1300

so a savings of 2700    about 54th-56th    

now those s9's mining at 5.6kwatts = 134.40 kwatts a day at 10 cents  that is 13.44 a day

so for 200 days 2688 dollars

So  the s9s are better for 200 days then the s15  and I am not counting  the time you wait for the s15's

at 8 cents  it is 10.75 a day in power  that is 251 days  before the s15 catches up to the s9is

So really only small USA and Europe guys with high power costs have any real interest in the s15.

Lets make you  not in USA lets say Canada tax is 5%

so 2960 x 1.05 = 3108 + 200 to ship say 3308 that is 2k more then the s9's

so  10 cent power   2000/13.44 =  148 days before the s15 starts to catch up

so   8  cent power     2000/10.75 = 186 days defore the s15 starts to catch up

so  the demand at 1475  will be low

even a canada guy at 10 cent power should be very cautious to get a lot of them.

I see what your saying. It does have a certain effect on the market and competitors if you can sell this unit. It seems almost futile unless they truly are grasping at straws, it really only buys them a few weeks when the orders are supposed to ship out. If there aren't a bunch of them being delivered to farms of all sizes it would just raise more questions about their business.


That would be one hell of a going out of business sale.


Yeah it was discussed a little at the beginning of the thread


Even if the limit is 2 per customer if the machines fail, you've just spread out the amount of pissed off consumers. More angry people by limiting the purchase amount. The Max quantity does lend more credence to the small batch argument more than anything. If delivered to a large enough sampling of people it does a better job of getting the word out as opposed to a couple of large orders buying up all the stock.

Was there not reports too of issues with the chips during development? 
I was sure there was a source that said the wafers were failing.

Could this be a reason to limit how many a customer can buy so they don't end up with 1000's of warranty repair or replace in the next few months.

Yep.
Who knows if they had as little as 10 miners for sale and sold out very quickly.  

I wouldn't put too much emphasis on the S15s "selling out".  Bitmain has been known to have "sold out" of very small quantities of Batch 1 miners before - just to get the publicity.   For instance, perhaps the "sold out" of dozens or perhaps 100s of S15s in minutes.  No big deal.

Twins are turning into low time preference pumpers imo.

Yeah and they have the winklevoss twins as major investors correct?

So since the twins were burned by Facebook replacing their idea.

They could feel Btc could be replaced by BCH so they figure diverse coins work to stop that.

Odd concept since they've had original Bitcoin support longer than anything else.

Because Coinbase doesn't like the OG Bitcoin. For some reason they like everything that isn't Bitcoin. I'll guess because it's the one and only coin that's demonstrably beyond the influence of small cabals which does not fit into their wannabe bankster ethos.

After everyone failed to get S2X raped through, BCH became the next best possibility of a hijack, not that it ever had a hope.

Regardless of their feelings, you'd expect the actual launch of it on Coinbase to be far less disgusting than it was.

I've never understood why Coinbase chose to support BCH.
Without Bitmain pushing it so hard for so long, it would be just another common junk coin with nothing in particular going for it, or more likely would not exist at all.

Poloniex supports quite a few junk coins, though they do weed out a few occasionally - and have also dropped some coins that have a REAL reason to exist (like CureCoin and Foldingcoin that support medical research).

I do, to the extent of their BTC/BCH mining and hardware business.

Mostly because I don't think things were if at all bad, anywhere near what was being "reported". I had forgotten about the whole BCH fork which with it adds another dynamic for discrediting Bitmain. That would be in the interest of whoever is backing the opposite side of the BCH coin.

I have no idea how much money they are hemorrhaging fighting the coin battle or with their AI programs.  What I do know is they have a ton of hardware hashing away for them, that's money all day. Their new flagship model is proving to be a sellout product and will continue to do so until other manufacturers start shipping product. Until then this is in hand within 3 weeks, so people will keep lining up and throwing cash/BTC/BCH at them.

So while one batch doesn't bring them out of (an unproven and likely untrue) financial ruin, they can stick to the same gameplan they did pre-2017 spike to continue raking in massive gains.

Bch will never influence btc price ever again. It was a one off event. Bch may have future pumps like all shit coins do, but there is no way hash rate is going to lead price. And there’s no excitement about bch. If anything the price pump should have pumped pre-fork based on the 2 for 1 dynamics.

EDIT: Well, I haven't been paying attention, but BCH did already pump 50%. So that's right on cue. I'd expect the two coins to equal roughly the price of the one coin pre-fork. Of course, there is the possibility that Antpool will have to move hash power to fight off Faketoshi and Co. But I can't imagine they will have to move that much.

Hopefully  that is the case and not some  odd shift  in the entire dynamic of BTC  BCH/Fork

Worst case is  BCH/Fork  grab a lot of hash  away from BTC   dropping  price of btc a lot

Best Case  Is  BCH/Fork  grab some hash away from BTC  keep things more or less stable  with  long term sideways movement.

Stable diff and stable price would be nice.  Ie  Just duplicate  the August 24-Nov 15 run  for the next 6 to 9 months.

Reality  Will show soon  between  The Nov 15th jump and the dec 1 jump.

I agree. There is no scenario where BCH quickly escalates in value. Shit coin = shit price

Must say I'm not paying much attention to it. Presumably Bitmain is siding with Bitcoin ABC and the opposing fork is the Calvin Ayre/Faketoshi crew?

If that is the case then the opposing fork will die rapidly and it'll be back to business as usual for BCH - no one caring all that much though jettisoning those psychos can only be wonderful for all. But what do I know?

A ton of hash has left Btc to mine on Bch waiting for the Nov 15 fork .  That will be first step to see what bitmain is up to.

Bitmain has pushed hard on Bch for a long time.

If they succeed we could see a major value move for Bch and hash could flow towards Bch/fork big time.

Coinbase and poloniex are supporting fork.

I still don't believe a word of it, but do you think one batch of sales would turn around a company that had long standing problems? Plenty of companies turn over a lot yet still fly down the toilet. Even if they're selling a mountain of stuff, vastly more money could be flying out the door via other means.

BCH is their unknown millstone. I cannae believe a supposedly hard nosed operation would place such an irrational bet.

Considering the S15 batch shows sold out on day 1 for everyone outside China, I'm going to guess that even if they were legitimately having issues they now have it covered.

Now the interesting tinfoil hat moment I had when thinking about the timing of it all. Suppose they did hit some hard times. They've been mining these for a while on there end hoping for an increase in coin prices - whichever one is more beneficial to them. That didn't happen, money got tight, easy decision to decide it's time to sell to the masses.

I still think it was more of a PR stunt. Big old doom and gloom, news, followed by a new product launch and flagship product sellout. Easy way to create a nice positive buzz for that IPO they're launching.

TSMC rode on crypto:

https://www.coindesk.com/crypto-mining-boost-helps-taiwanese-chip-maker-break-sales-record/

They better be quelling rumors...

Google translated this:


Well the interest is do we now jump on the new miner send bitmain money and hope all is well?