What tells you it's gonna happen fast?
everyone and their aunt have been waiting on their sidelines to catch the bottom, everyone convinced they are smarter than the next. like some huge game of chicken. these people *want* to buy. they are frightened. their fear just needs an outlet, right now they are afraid that they are catching a knife, but that will quickly change to the terror of missing the boat.
every move ever is made of that.
This. Once the greed of "man I could have bought at 350 yesterday" will be overtaken by fear of "oh my god I may miss this train completely" people start making hasty buy decisions, followed by hasty sell decisions when it turns around on a 5-minute candle, rinse repeat, because human emotions are the shortest route to poverty.
sgbett, does not it feel nice being a hodler and watching the things you've experienced twice already unfold on unsuspecting newbies? So much fun
It feels nice being a holder yes, because at todays prices I could not afford to buy 1/10th of what I have now, and it would be infinitely more risky.
However, I'm under no illusion that this is a sure bet. It's interesting watching newbies go through the process of figuring out how what the potential upside is, and how little they really have to risk. You don't need to be ALL IN, and once you figure that out you are set. Risk what you can afford to lose. Watch it go to the moon/up in smoke. Don't sweat.
Or be like mat. trade insanely. become neurotic the market is against you then finally throw in the towel and sit on the sidelines a trembling wreck.
It's those people, the people that are ALL OUT, they are the people I don't get. They are convinced they can trade to win, and for a while I'm sure some do (and statistically some will continue to). Most won't. They could have just held and done alright.
Sure I've juiced my returns by skimming a bit off the top on the run ups and buying back a little on the downturns, but this accounts for tiny fraction of my pot.
It's all gambling, but if you are going to gamble, pick good odds, and manage your bankroll.
I still say buy, I still say hold, and I still leave in my sig where I called the bottom so you can see just how easy it is to be wrong. There is too much revisionism on these boards. This is just my bit of truth
(I also said buy at $800, and I suspect soon, that will end up having been good advice...)
