Topic: Russia can evade sanction through cryptocurrencies - page 5. (Read 805 times)
They can evade sanctions if they use gold, yuan or some other local currency too. The thing is, they won't be doing any trades with the countries that sanction them anyways so It doesn't matter what they use. Let's say Russia is trading with China. Does it matter if they use crypto or Yuans? Both countries see each other as allies... If you think the US companies will do business with Russia and evade the sanctions I think that's a very big problem for the US.
Hahaha, reverse-sanction by Putin. Every person who says that Russia is "not relevant" base their analysis through GDP denominated in the U.S. Dollar. BUT the truth is, Russia is the source of 17% of the global supply of Natural Gas, 11% of oil, 11% Wheat, and I believe one of the largest sources of Palladium and fertilizer.
...Also 5% of global nickel production.
On the oil and gas topic, it's a "reverse sanction" only for medium term. If the current status remains for long, then it will force:
* infrastructure development towards other suppliers (hence on the long term more competition and maybe lower prices)
* infrastructure development for increased use of greens energy (maybe more nuclear plants, maybe more hydrogen, clearly more solar, wind and hydro)
I fear that this war can easily turn into a years long guerrilla war in Ukraine, I fear that this war can easily go farther, engulfing more countries, I fear it can easily turn into WW3.
All these scenarios would mean that much more infrastructure will need built or rebuilt.
I believe this war will end with Ukraine's president negotiating with Putin. If a war continues, you're right, it will only be contained within Ukraine as a guerilla war. I also believe Russia doesn't want to be in a World War. They merely want control of Ukraine because Russia's major gas pipelines go through the country.
The Russia's central bank wanted cryptocurrencies to be banned in its country but the Russian president, Vladimir Putin said bitcoin mining and other crypto mining will be beneficial for Russia. Some people at that time have been supectimg this could be a move by the Russia's president that he is planning to invade Ukraine which will result to sanctions, thinking cryptocurrencies would be a means to evade sanctions and make it economically less effective.
Ukrainian Vice Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov demand crypto exchanges to freeze all Russian accounts so that the sanction can be effective, but most exchanges did not support this. I read few days ago that cryptocurrencies may not help in Russia sanction but FinCEN concluded that Russia can attempt to use cryptocurrencies to evade sanctions.
FinCEN Provides Financial Institutions with Red Flags on Potential Russian Sanctions Evasion Attempts
What is your take? What role can cryptocurrencies play in helping Russia sanctions evasion and to what extent can this be?
Ukrainian Vice Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov demand crypto exchanges to freeze all Russian accounts so that the sanction can be effective, but most exchanges did not support this. I read few days ago that cryptocurrencies may not help in Russia sanction but FinCEN concluded that Russia can attempt to use cryptocurrencies to evade sanctions.
FinCEN Provides Financial Institutions with Red Flags on Potential Russian Sanctions Evasion Attempts
What is your take? What role can cryptocurrencies play in helping Russia sanctions evasion and to what extent can this be?
This is rubbish because the cryptocurrency networks do not have the capacity to handle the amount of transactions a country like Russia would need efficiently. Even if it did somehow manage to make this work, sanctions on any individuals or companies would wipe out any potential benefit very clearly - at best this could provide a very short term solution. However it will be of limited benefit to them right now, because the ruble has already plunged so far and a lot of their trade is denominated in foreign currencies, which they cannot get back into the country. Anyone who thinks they're smart by evading financial restrictions in this sort of way could become a huge target and be made an example of by many regulators.
And now Russia has finally stopped shipping gas to Europe, which makes European countries finally constrained by gas consumption for factory needs. It turns out that the impact of sanctions against Russia was actually retaliated by stopping gas exports, we know Russia is the largest gas producer in the world and even Francis is the country that buys gas the most from Russia, now he appeals to its citizens not to panic and will immediately take alternative actions using coal. Closing each other's economic gaps has an impact on the instability of other countries. And one thing, non-block countries like me are experiencing the impact of the invasion which is almost a few days where we live the internet is completely down.
But we know very well that this would affect Russia more than it would affect other European countries. Russia is already feeling the heat of the action that they have taken. Their economy is already falling, and their currency is losing value. Other countries can easily make use of other alternatives that are available to them, which I believe for sure that there are so many alternatives to making use of gas.But for Russia, they would keep on keeping the gas for as long, and that is not doing any good to them. Rather it would even’ cause more of negative impact on their economy, since they wouldn’t be making much exports this time around. Other countries have stopped making use of their gas, and they are still doing fine, their economy is still OK even at this point.
Stop using gas will halt everything from production to household cooking. Given that it's winter, the more there is the need for gas and oil that's why Biden asked Iran and Saudi to produce gas for EU. It's impossible to stop using gas, it's time for every country to use the alternative sources like wind and sunlight massively.
Russia evading sanctions will be difficult but the one ally they have which is China plays a vital role for them to achieve many things still. I'm afraid this one has more influence than Russia.
And now Russia has finally stopped shipping gas to Europe, which makes European countries finally constrained by gas consumption for factory needs. It turns out that the impact of sanctions against Russia was actually retaliated by stopping gas exports, we know Russia is the largest gas producer in the world and even Francis is the country that buys gas the most from Russia, now he appeals to its citizens not to panic and will immediately take alternative actions using coal. Closing each other's economic gaps has an impact on the instability of other countries. And one thing, non-block countries like me are experiencing the impact of the invasion which is almost a few days where we live the internet is completely down.
But we know very well that this would affect Russia more than it would affect other European countries. Russia is already feeling the heat of the action that they have taken. Their economy is already falling, and their currency is losing value. Other countries can easily make use of other alternatives that are available to them, which I believe for sure that there are so many alternatives to making use of gas.But for Russia, they would keep on keeping the gas for as long, and that is not doing any good to them. Rather it would even’ cause more of negative impact on their economy, since they wouldn’t be making much exports this time around. Other countries have stopped making use of their gas, and they are still doing fine, their economy is still OK even at this point.
And now Russia has finally stopped shipping gas to Europe, which makes European countries finally constrained by gas consumption for factory needs. It turns out that the impact of sanctions against Russia was actually retaliated by stopping gas exports, we know Russia is the largest gas producer in the world and even Francis is the country that buys gas the most from Russia, now he appeals to its citizens not to panic and will immediately take alternative actions using coal. Closing each other's economic gaps has an impact on the instability of other countries. And one thing, non-block countries like me are experiencing the impact of the invasion which is almost a few days where we live the internet is completely down.
Hahaha, reverse-sanction by Putin. Every person who says that Russia is "not relevant" base their analysis through GDP denominated in the U.S. Dollar. BUT the truth is, Russia is the source of 17% of the global supply of Natural Gas, 11% of oil, 11% Wheat, and I believe one of the largest sources of Palladium and fertilizer.However, none of these are things that can't be found in another country. Like wheat, that's a very simple thing, if you got it from one place, you do not look or build in another place, but if west wanted to, they could literally spend enough money to turn ENTIRE African nation (pick any poor one you want) into wheat farm, literally entire nation. Or oil? Saudi Arabia has so much, they could take out all the oil today, and that would be enough for 20 years of wests needs. Basically these are temporary and sudden changes and the economy will be impacted, but in the long run, it is really not a big deal at all.
Let's GUESS. Now let's simulate how it will look in reality?
To begin with, remember - the entire economy of the Russian Federation is either a resource-based economy that depends on Western technologies, or everything else that is completely dependent on Western technologies. Yes, yes - Russia is a technologically backward country. All technologies are borrowed. So. Russia is lowering a new iron curtain. He buys crypts, and / or releases his own, and ? How, for example, will they buy Canadian technologies for gas production for a crypt? Here answer? Provided that the supply of such technologies is prohibited!
To begin with, remember - the entire economy of the Russian Federation is either a resource-based economy that depends on Western technologies, or everything else that is completely dependent on Western technologies. Yes, yes - Russia is a technologically backward country. All technologies are borrowed. So. Russia is lowering a new iron curtain. He buys crypts, and / or releases his own, and ? How, for example, will they buy Canadian technologies for gas production for a crypt? Here answer? Provided that the supply of such technologies is prohibited!
Russia is the largest country in the word to be honest and they're listed as a big distributor in other countries such oil, gas and etc. sso on that case probably they don't need cryptocurrency such bitcoin to bypass sanction because fiat will keep entering on their country despite of the situation. and infact it seems most russian are not affected because they keep supporting putin decisions.
And lastly they still have choice instead of bitcoin IMO and it will be their digital ruble.
And lastly they still have choice instead of bitcoin IMO and it will be their digital ruble.
You think they've bought enough crypto before they started the invasion?
Do you really believe that they need crypto? They are still selling as we speak gas and oil to Germany, USA and a whole lot of other countries, and they're not even selling it cheap. Do you think they don't get paid for that, no matter the sanctions on TV? Gas flows, fiat flows, and the common people (some brain washed, some scared, some standing against the war, no matter, all of them), as usual, suffer.
Well based on their change of stance I'm assuming they did but then again many have been speculating that foreign governments have been buying even before. Oil is probably going to be the last resource to get sanctioned but I'm assuming they'd use crypto to perform certain transactions they won't be able to do after their banks get kicked off SWIFT.
Hahaha, reverse-sanction by Putin. Every person who says that Russia is "not relevant" base their analysis through GDP denominated in the U.S. Dollar. BUT the truth is, Russia is the source of 17% of the global supply of Natural Gas, 11% of oil, 11% Wheat, and I believe one of the largest sources of Palladium and fertilizer.
...Also 5% of global nickel production.
On the oil and gas topic, it's a "reverse sanction" only for medium term. If the current status remains for long, then it will force:
* infrastructure development towards other suppliers (hence on the long term more competition and maybe lower prices)
* infrastructure development for increased use of greens energy (maybe more nuclear plants, maybe more hydrogen, clearly more solar, wind and hydro)
I fear that this war can easily turn into a years long guerrilla war in Ukraine, I fear that this war can easily go farther, engulfing more countries, I fear it can easily turn into WW3.
All these scenarios would mean that much more infrastructure will need built or rebuilt.
That's not how sanctions work.
Let's imagine the sanction on Russian gas/oil. If Europe is starving for gas and aren't allowed to buy it from Russia they will not buy it from Russia. Cryptocurrencies don't even come in! Similarly if the starving European countries decided they have no other choice to buy Russian gas they will buy it again there is no cryptocurrencies involved!
That's the same with anything else that was sanctioned.
Let's imagine the sanction on Russian gas/oil. If Europe is starving for gas and aren't allowed to buy it from Russia they will not buy it from Russia. Cryptocurrencies don't even come in! Similarly if the starving European countries decided they have no other choice to buy Russian gas they will buy it again there is no cryptocurrencies involved!
That's the same with anything else that was sanctioned.
And now Russia has finally stopped shipping gas to Europe, which makes European countries finally constrained by gas consumption for factory needs. It turns out that the impact of sanctions against Russia was actually retaliated by stopping gas exports, we know Russia is the largest gas producer in the world and even Francis is the country that buys gas the most from Russia, now he appeals to its citizens not to panic and will immediately take alternative actions using coal. Closing each other's economic gaps has an impact on the instability of other countries. And one thing, non-block countries like me are experiencing the impact of the invasion which is almost a few days where we live the internet is completely down.
Hahaha, reverse-sanction by Putin. Every person who says that Russia is "not relevant" base their analysis through GDP denominated in the U.S. Dollar. BUT the truth is, Russia is the source of 17% of the global supply of Natural Gas, 11% of oil, 11% Wheat, and I believe one of the largest sources of Palladium and fertilizer.
That's not how sanctions work.
Let's imagine the sanction on Russian gas/oil. If Europe is starving for gas and aren't allowed to buy it from Russia they will not buy it from Russia. Cryptocurrencies don't even come in! Similarly if the starving European countries decided they have no other choice to buy Russian gas they will buy it again there is no cryptocurrencies involved!
That's the same with anything else that was sanctioned.
Let's imagine the sanction on Russian gas/oil. If Europe is starving for gas and aren't allowed to buy it from Russia they will not buy it from Russia. Cryptocurrencies don't even come in! Similarly if the starving European countries decided they have no other choice to buy Russian gas they will buy it again there is no cryptocurrencies involved!
That's the same with anything else that was sanctioned.
And now Russia has finally stopped shipping gas to Europe, which makes European countries finally constrained by gas consumption for factory needs. It turns out that the impact of sanctions against Russia was actually retaliated by stopping gas exports, we know Russia is the largest gas producer in the world and even Francis is the country that buys gas the most from Russia, now he appeals to its citizens not to panic and will immediately take alternative actions using coal. Closing each other's economic gaps has an impact on the instability of other countries. And one thing, non-block countries like me are experiencing the impact of the invasion which is almost a few days where we live the internet is completely down.
The fact that crypto could be used to avoid sanctions may create a bit of danger for all of us as well. In the sense that, they can't do anything about crypto itself, but they can do something about what you can do with crypto. In the sense that they are not going to just freeze blockchain, they do not have the power to do so, it will continue like it has been for the past 10+ years.
However, they can put some legal restrictions and regulations about having your money on exchanges or trading or whatever, so basically not with your crypto, but what you do with it. So in that case, it will be harder for all of us to use it, but it will also get better when it stops.
However, they can put some legal restrictions and regulations about having your money on exchanges or trading or whatever, so basically not with your crypto, but what you do with it. So in that case, it will be harder for all of us to use it, but it will also get better when it stops.
If the fiat and crypto freeze on the Freedom Convoy wasn't enough to open their eyes, nothing will.
It seems to me that what can be called cultural sanctions affects them much more than economic issues. Twitter, YouTube, Tik Tok, Netflix and others came out of Russia. Russians were banned from flying to other countries. They were restricted from accessing the civilized world in various ways. Now they are forced to be exclusively in their own environment, and they begin to realize that it is not as bright as they were told on TV. People quickly get used to the good things, and when they disappear, it is very difficult to switch to a low-quality "homeland product". Perhaps this is what will make them finally wake up from the lethargic sleep in which they have been for the last 20 years.
You think they've bought enough crypto before they started the invasion?
Do you really believe that they need crypto? They are still selling as we speak gas and oil to Germany, USA and a whole lot of other countries, and they're not even selling it cheap. Do you think they don't get paid for that, no matter the sanctions on TV? Gas flows, fiat flows, and the common people (some brain washed, some scared, some standing against the war, no matter, all of them), as usual, suffer.
I've mentioned it before but their sudden turnaround of crypto stance hinted of their plans to invade Ukraine. They were preparing for sanctions. Well, let's just see in the news how well they've prepared. They can still get banned from exchanges and it'll be interesting how they'll get around that.
You think they've bought enough crypto before they started the invasion?
If the fiat and crypto freeze on the Freedom Convoy wasn't enough to open their eyes, nothing will.
You think they've bought enough crypto before they started the invasion?
Hahaha. The Russians being sanctioned couldn't make Bitcoin's fundamental thesis, and main value-proposition clearer for the public. Governments use financial bans, and sanctions to control you. In this kind of world, we should be HODLing decentralized, censorship-resistant money.
If the fiat and crypto freeze on the Freedom Convoy wasn't enough to open their eyes, nothing will.
I think these say economic sanctions are not useful anymore to put the dictators under pressure.
It is still having desirable effect on the Russian economy because the rupee is dropping against the dollar and you know what it means for a country to have dropping value of currency against the dollar, this is leading to high cost of importation which will increase inflation too. But what I see is that Russia also what to retaliate the EU by cutting off gas supply to Germany and that will affect other EU countries, rail ways and other utilities.
Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies can definitely help Russia to bypass some economic sanctions while bitcoin can help people to get their money away from governments eyes and save them from the governments, sometimes this can help the governments to stay safe from the economic sanction, However, in my own idea, Putin was so really for any sanction and even with or without of the bitcoin they have their own ways to stay safe from the sanctions. generally, I think these say economic sanctions are not useful anymore to put the dictators under pressure.
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Cryptocurrencies can be decentralized but centralized exchanges and centralized wallets are not decentralized, only centralized exchanges and wallets is what I are talking about. For people that are using decentralized wallets, there is nothing because the have the control, not the exchanges. But Russians can turn to decentralized means though.
Even from Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao himself saying that cryptocurrencies won’t help evade sanctions.
But from my own perspective, Russia can possibly evade sanctions if they turn towards full decentralization or exchanges refusing to ban Russians from using their respective platforms. Like for instance, mandating all businesses to accept crypto payments by using non-custodial wallets.
No matter what CZ says, it needs to be noted that CZ denied blocking Russian accounts from Binance through a rightful decision. So not sure why he thinks that cryptos can't help Russia evade the sanctions.
Russia can certainly try this. But considering the global sentiment is against Russia right at this moment, it may not be beneficial for them. Their internal economy can be supported by cryptos but the global trade won't go through crypto route.
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Cryptocurrencies can be decentralized but centralized exchanges and centralized wallets are not decentralized, only centralized exchanges and wallets is what I are talking about. For people that are using decentralized wallets, there is nothing because the have the control, not the exchanges. But Russians can turn to decentralized means though.
Even from Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao himself saying that cryptocurrencies won’t help evade sanctions.
But from my own perspective, Russia can possibly evade sanctions if they turn towards full decentralization or exchanges refusing to ban Russians from using their respective platforms. Like for instance, mandating all businesses to accept crypto payments by using non-custodial wallets.
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