...
"Israel is a separate matter – we are going to bring forward a standalone Israel funding measure (of) over $14 billion,” Johnson said in the interview. He said House Republicans will look for other areas to cut in the budget in order to finance the funding for Israel.
...
Yes, nothing new, Biden supports the effort in Ukraine and has good reasons to it. There is nothing indicating that democrats are reconsidering and we already knew Republicans are divided.
There are discussions going on. On the "separate matter", nothing is "separate" in politics.
The amphibious operations in the Kherson region are ongoing, there has been even a report of Ruzzian bombing near Oleshky, which is well inside the west bank of the river.
Three S-400 seem to have been destroyed by an ATACAMS, so yes, S-400 is very effective destroying ATACAMS once the missile reaches them. BTW this is a Ruzzian report it seems
https://gagadget.com/en/342105-us-atacms-missiles-could-destroy-three-launchers-of-the-125-billion-s-400-air-defence-system/.
Judging from previous Ukrainian attacks this is not casual, there is an intent to clear the threats before the F-16 arrive or there is an intent to launch Stormshadows or more attacks in the area,...
I'm talking trends and macro level. From back in August
Majority of Americans oppose more US aid for Ukraine in war with Russia that was too impossible for populists to ignore and now US has a Trumpist House speaker thus
Ukraine Aid in Doubt as Johnson Moves to Drop It From Israel Assistance Bill. ....
So... you gather all the news that you find favourable to a certain position and you call that the direction of travel right? Including things like "a majority of Americans do not support further aid"? I mean, your own source says:
And 51% say that the US has already done enough to help Ukraine while 48% say it should do more.
- so you are right, there are 3% more that think it is enough - seems to me like within the margin of error of one week to another, but sure, if you need "hopium" go for it.
About weapons that are game changers, well they actually are. Two questions that you need to ask yourself:
- Why does Ukraine have a corridor that is working perfectly on exporting grain and other goods by sea? You did not know? Well it is there. Why?
- Why is Ukraine specifically targeting the S-400 and why are they actually able to do it?
From columns of tanks advancing in the early days - or just staying there like sitting ducks - all over the country, to loosing a year's worth of helicopters in a day, loosing a submarine, getting the Baltic fleet HQ bombed... Excuse me, but I think these weapons have changed the game, like a lot. This is a war of attrition and these weapons are great at blasting high-value targets.
And latest reports speak of even more troops being prepared for yet another assault in Avdiivka, after the loss of more than 200 vehicles in a week. Next week is going to be bloody for Ruzzia.
On the S-400, I will give you a hint: What is the single objective that could make a significant difference, requires a weapon that has not yet been used but it is on its way and might be bothered by S-400s? Another clue: It starts with Kerch and end with Bridge.
Ruzzia as of now has been reduced to WW I strategies - meat waves - with a 10% of other, such as gliding bombs, some Sahed (some say it is keeping them for winter, but it may be the case that there are not that many), missiles (nearly none las month), ... If Ukraine gets more modern aviation and over all the right munitions, the game will change again.
...
We must have a different definition for a "game changing" weapon. But that's good, now all we have to do is just
redefine the definition of "winning" for Ukraine, they'll just need someone like yourself to help convince the population.
Yes, yes things will get even worse for Russia next week as Ukraine possibly looses even more land
![Huh](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/huh.gif)
and once again just saying that Russia lost trillion of people/vehicles doesn't say anything at all, you really expect people to know if that's low or high for themselves? You need to also make up a low number of Ukrainian loses so you could lead people to you conclusion. How would Russia loosing X vehicles in a week and taking Z meters help your point, if Ukraine lost Z meters and X+Y vehicles in the same time period? So to be able to make a comparison, you need say that Ukraine losses are much less than 1/3 of X (account for population difference), as well as mention tiny Russian manufacturing capacity which should also be much less than Y vehicles lost.
...
On the news you choose, yes it is biased, you choose those that reinforce your beliefs and choose to ignore other equally important information (e.g. change of Government in Poland). Also, you choose to ignore the effect of the increase in number an effectiveness of the weapons available for Ukraine.
On the redefinition of winning... do you happen to have the phone of the Ruzzian Ministry of Propaganda? They have so much experience in re-defining victory that they could share some of their learnings. I mean... "we will change the Ukrainian government, demilitarise the country and stop NATO expansion...." to "We hope we do not loose the bridge to Crimea and keep a minimum buffer zone and have some fishing boats in Sebastopol".
You do not need a formula to understand the cost of territory. It is simply enough to understand if it is sustainable or not sustainable. Sufficient to say that there are abundant reports of North Korean supplies of shells and low-tech going to the front. Why do you think Ruzzia needs to import low-tech like shells, rifles and artillery from North Korea? Is it because they are producing enough?
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/10/10/north-korea-arms-russia-2/‘Dramatic’ Increase in Rail Freight Traffic
It coincides with a “dramatic” increase in rail freight traffic at a North Korean railway facility bordering Russia, the US Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) reported citing satellite imagery.
The Tumangang railway station saw 73 freight railcars on October 5, the highest volume of traffic witnessed at the facility in five years.
Of course, no free lunch for Ruzzia at all:
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/south-korea-warns-russia-of-retaliation-if-missile-tech-supplied-to-north-korea/3034523South Korea on Friday warned Russia of retaliation if Moscow transfers its missile technology to North Korea.
![Wink](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/wink.gif)
Ruzzia is banking on entrenching themselves to the point that Ukraine would need two years of intense war to drive them out have the US & other not willing to support Ukraine for that long. Avdiivka is strategic, but it is also an PR exercise for Putin that is why the losses are not being counted.
But see the news sources I post are already biased
TOWARDS Ukraine, CNN is creme de la creme for Ukraine. You keep putting yourself in a bubble where you only want to read Ukrainian biased sources. But when we get to the point where even they start to pivot and begin publishing negative outlooks for Ukraine, your response is: but look they still also publish some positive news for Ukraine, so lets just concentrate on that.
![Undecided](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/undecided.gif)
I guess creating a smaller bubble and only reading positive news from already biased sources is always a solution, but counterproductive and never a good idea if you want to objectively see the development of the situation.
It's physically impossible to conclude whether conflict is sustainable by only reading made up numbers for one side. Not sure how else i can explain it to you. When making up numbers you need to make them up for
both sides (taking into account differences in population and production outputs) for anyone to be able to draw any conclusions, that's just how maths work. This is my best attempt to bring this down to 4th grade level: if during a football game the other side scored 3 goals is it sustainable
![Huh](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/huh.gif)
You're ignoring my questions yet keep asking me your questions. Nevertheless, as far as shells it's rather simple, artillery is god of war in this conflict. Most of the casualties are from indirect shrapnel, not bullets. Drones and guided missiles are more effective and they try to push them as this new eye candy but reality is that their scale is just no there yet, so front lines crave more shells. It be silly for a side not to attempt to procure them from anywhere they can
Scoop: U.S. to send Israel artillery shells initially destined for UkraineWars Push Up Demand for Weapons, Sparking Fears of Shortages
...
Western defense officials worry that with Israel going to war as the West battles Russia by proxy in Ukraine, there won’t be enough artillery shells and other weapons to keep both allies in the fight.
...
“Of course” there are concerns about competition for military resources because of limited production capacity, said Göran Mårtensson, director general of the Swedish Defense Materiel Administration, which handles procurement for the country’s defense ministry. “There will be more need for that limited production capacity in Europe and the U.S.”
...
Since Russia launched its large-scale invasion of Ukraine roughly 20 months ago, defense contractors across the West have geared up production, but output remains below the volumes of ammunition and equipment being spent on Ukraine’s battlefields.
...
With demand increasing faster than production, prices of some supplies have soared. NATO-standard 155-millimeter artillery shells, one of the West’s most basic armaments, had cost governments about $2,100 apiece before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, said Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, Stoltenberg’s top military adviser, at the NATO forum.
The price of those shells, which Bauer dubbed “one of the most coveted objects in the world right now,” has increased fourfold, to about $8,400, he said.
...
Sweden and three other Nordic countries earlier this month announced a rare multicountry order for 155mm shells for Kyiv, valued at roughly $54 million. At the prices NATO’s Bauer cited, that would deliver fewer than 7,000 rounds.
...
“Everything is connected,” he said. “If Israel is helped out from the U.S. stockpiles, that’s taken away from something.”
...
“The biggest one to highlight, and it sticks out, is on the artillery side,” said Chief Financial Officer Jason Aiken of the recent $106 billion supplemental funding request from the White House, which includes further support for Ukraine and Israel, as well as Taiwan. “The Israeli situation is only going to put upward pressure on that demand.”
The Pentagon has sent back to Israel stocks of its shells relocated this year to replenish U.S. forces in Europe, a senior defense official said this week.
Interesting that no one even bothers to hide, and even started to openly admit, that West is battling Russia by Ukrainian proxy now. And you're still trying to spin Israel conflict as a net positive for Ukraine right?
Edit:
And here's a good quote by Ukrainian Prime Minister from today
“We have a huge deficit of ammunition not just in Ukraine but all over the world,” Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal told the Financial Times. “We understand we should produce this here in Ukraine because all around the world it’s finished, it’s depleted. All the warehouses are empty.”
...
But building up a procurement industry for shells, artillery and air defence is a far more complex and ambitious undertaking than for drones, at a time of worldwide shortages of key components and raw materials. One official said they could not quickly transform shell production in the way they did for drones, not least because of the global “shortage of gunpowder”.