http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11305146/The-week-the-dam-broke-in-Russia-and-ended-Putins-dreams.htmlThis was the week when the country’s long-festering crisis turned virulent. A last-ditch attempt to defend the exchange rate by raising interest rates to 17pc failed within hours, yet the shock is surely enough to set off a chain of corporate failures and push banks over the edge.
Traders in the City watched open-mouthed as the dam broke on Black Tuesday. The event exposed the awful reality that the Kremlin does not have the infinite foreign reserves that many had supposed. “What is happening is a nightmare that we could not even have imagined a year ago,” says the central bank’s deputy chief, Sergei Shvetsov.
The currency has since stabilised at 60 to the dollar. But it has lost half its value in a year. Russia’s $2.1 trillion (£1.3 trillion) economy has shrunk to $1.1 trillion, half the GDP of California.
The external debt of Russian banks and companies has by mathematical effect ballooned to 70pc of total output. “A Russian downgrade to junk is only a matter or time,” says Tim Ash, from Standard Bank.
“The crisis is suddenly filtering into people’s daily lives,” says Bill Browder from Hermitage. “55pc of consumer goods in Russia are imported and these are doubling in price. People are buying anything they can that keeps its value.” (reminds me of the Soviet rubble collapse)
Vedomisti reports that there is a de facto run on banks as depositors pull what they can from ATM machines, fearing the guillotine at any moment. Soviet queues are appearing again.
Those scrambling to buy cars may have missed their chance. Jaguar Land Rover has halted sales to Russia. So has General Motors, citing “rouble volatility”. The big three dealerships - Transtekhservice, Major Auto, and Avilon - have frozen sales.
As the buying frenzy subsides, the eerie stillness of depression may instead take hold. The central bank says the economy could contract by 4.7pc next year if oil prices settle at $60 a barrel, but that was before the rate shock. BNP Paribas says each 100-basis point rise cuts 0.8pc off GDP a year later. Rates have risen 750 points in a week.
“It’s going to be worse than the default crisis in 1998. This time you have a situation where the West is against them,” says Browder. “Russian companies are shut out of the global capital markets. The country can’t turn to the IMF because Washington will block it. There is no lender of last resort.”
Guess no investing in rubbles or buying cars and property. Russia better come out with those black swans they have been threatening soon! Of course...
The White House says Putin can reverse the process at any time by implementing the Minsk ceasefire deal agreed three months ago. “The aim is to sharpen the choice that he faces,” it says.
... but we all know Putin won't do that:
“The issue is not Crimea. We are protecting our sovereignty and our right to exist,” he says.
which is funny, because that's PRECISELY what is being done to Russia. Russia is allowed to exist all sovereign, on it's own, without anyone pressuring it in any way. But also without anyone collaborating in any way. And it looks like Russia, alone on its own, is falling.
And this is just sad:
Russia ranks 136 for road quality, 126 for the ability of firms to absorb technology, 124 for availability of the latest technology, 120 for the burden of government regulation, and 105 for product sophistication, in the World Economic Forum’s index of competitiveness.
The curtain (iron?) is being pulled back, to reveal that the great and prosperous Russia isn't really all it has been claiming to be.