Sanctions left and right, Can the Russian economy survive? - page 3.

The Sceptical Chymist

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Quote from: YOSHIE on February 28, 2022, 12:51:19 PM

Quote

In fact, International Law Observer, said that economic sanctions will certainly not have a big impact on the Russian people. And Russia will be able to survive six to 1 year after being given world sanctions.

Believe it or not, that's exactly what Russia is doing right now.

I believe it. You have to think Putin would have anticipated the reaction from the US, UK, and other countries if he invaded Ukraine--he's not a stupid man by any means, and he's been the top dog in Russia for many years. He knows how the game is played.

I talked to a couple of people about this situation, and they wondered why Ukraine's allies aren't doing more to support them, i.e., why haven't they sparked up a war with Russia....and I had to explain what should be obvious: you don't want to pick a fight with a country that has massive nuclear capability. Sanctions and whatever else the US and the rest of Ukraine's friends are doing behind the scenes is really all that can be done. At this point I don't think anyone really knows what Putin thinks about pushing the nuclear button.

bustabitsboy

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Just imagine two people - the first has firewood, matches, a garden, wheat, and the second has only wine. If winter comes, which of these two people will survive? I think the one that has warmth and food. Russia has everything to keep people warm and well fed. Why do you think that this country may not withstand sanctions from other states? Or do you think that if McDonald's closes, then the country is doomed to extinction? Even if this country creates a wall for itself from the rest of the world, not a single person will die from it.

Taskford

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Quote from: Abiky on March 24, 2022, 09:44:37 AM

Quote from: dunfida on March 23, 2022, 04:56:11 PM

They are really that confident because they do really have that huge reserve not only talking on some resources but totally speaking on their back up funds and of course they had already anticipated for this thing to

happen speaking with sanctions in global scale manner because into what they have done.So far they are really still holding on despite of those sanctions that they are facing on.
Yes, it would really be giving out economic effect but it seems they dont really put up much focus for that for now.

It's probable Putin anticipated tight economic sanctions would've happened after the invasion. After all, he's a wise person. I think China will begin to finance Russia's operations to help it rise from the ground up. Russia can also sell its natural resources to other countries to keep its economy afloat. If things work out the way they should, current sanctions won't have a profound effect over Russia's economy in the long run.

To stop Putin, there needs to be a full-scale war between the US and its allies. Sanctions won't do anything to prevent Putin from conquering Ukraine. But as I've said before, the West and the EU are afraid of Russia. So they will only impose sanctions without taking any military action whatsoever. Who knows if the Ruble rises all the way to its former glory before the year ends? Just my thoughts Grin

If he is affected on it then provably we will see him surrender and beg for other country to erase the sanctions impose to their country, but since he keeps forwarding and eager to invade Ukraine then maybe we can say that those sanctions throe to them really didn't work and I think what can make this war end if Ukrainian president will surrender and talk about how they can negotiate with Russia towards what they like to happen.

Abiky

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Quote from: dunfida on March 23, 2022, 04:56:11 PM

They are really that confident because they do really have that huge reserve not only talking on some resources but totally speaking on their back up funds and of course they had already anticipated for this thing to

happen speaking with sanctions in global scale manner because into what they have done.So far they are really still holding on despite of those sanctions that they are facing on.
Yes, it would really be giving out economic effect but it seems they dont really put up much focus for that for now.

It's probable Putin anticipated tight economic sanctions would've happened after the invasion. After all, he's a wise person. I think China will begin to finance Russia's operations to help it rise from the ground up. Russia can also sell its natural resources to other countries to keep its economy afloat. If things work out the way they should, current sanctions won't have a profound effect over Russia's economy in the long run.

To stop Putin, there needs to be a full-scale war between the US and its allies. Sanctions won't do anything to prevent Putin from conquering Ukraine. But as I've said before, the West and the EU are afraid of Russia. So they will only impose sanctions without taking any military action whatsoever. Who knows if the Ruble rises all the way to its former glory before the year ends? Just my thoughts Grin

bakasabo

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Quote from: darewaller on March 23, 2022, 12:03:58 PM

Quote from: bakasabo on March 22, 2022, 05:17:38 AM

Main harm that is made by sanctions are hundred thousand, if not a million of unemployed people. People who worked with import and foreign companies. I am sure that Russian economy could handle with inflation, and lack of goods from abroad. China will help them with it, all they need to do right now is to solve logistics issues. But the huge amount of unemployed will be real problem. Without work, people start to become dumb. Uneducated, dumb crowd is uncontrolled and dangerous.

It is obvious that there will always be some people who will be upset over the fact that Russia got sanctions (mainly Russians). I mean Russians may not be happy about the fact that they are unemployed and living in a horrible situation right now, but what did you expected when you have a dictator?

I get that you may not have enough power to overthrow a dictator, he may get you killed, jailed and basically do something horrible. But at the end of the day, we are talking about a dictator and you can't really blame the world for not working with you because of it. You have to blame your dictator, not the west. If they can't learn that, they can't get better.

Dictators are different. From people point of view, Putin and for example Kim Jong-un, are not the same. I never heard or read about protests against Kim Jong-un. There are a lot of people who support Putin, significant amount who does not. But that is not comparable how Kim Jong-un is idolized.

Lets take popular nowadays comparison of Putin and Hitler. They both did a lot of bad things, no doubt. But before WWII, Hitler send German and Austrian economy, lets say how it is common for bitcointalk, to the moon. Before WWII both countries became unbelievably developed. Putin now did exactly opposite.

Ahli38

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Quote from: YOSHIE on February 28, 2022, 12:51:19 PM

Quote from: Rruchi man on February 28, 2022, 11:36:20 AM

-Do you think Russia can survive, and how can they survive the harsh economic realities that they are about to experience? Are the sanctions sufficient to push Putin into a decision to stop the invasion?

I just finished reading one of the international media sources and I saw a topic here by accident.

From what I read, the answer to this topic, I think it fits the answer as I quote below.

Quote

But in fact, the economic sanctions imposed on Russia are expected to be met, because Russia is thought to have prepared its economy before an invasion of its neighboring country.

In fact, International Law Observer, said that economic sanctions will certainly not have a big impact on the Russian people. And Russia will be able to survive six to 1 year after being given world sanctions.

Believe it or not, that's exactly what Russia is doing right now.

look at the current condition. Indeed, Russia still looks fine and the impact is not too big in the big country.
I think Russia can survive and even from a long time ago I think Russia had expected this to happen.
then of course they also have preparations to anticipate something like this.

I think to stop Russia can only be done by persuading ukraine to fulfill the wishes of russia and ukraine before agreeing to have to ask for certain conditions such as the safety of the ukraine president and its citizens.

but maybe in reality it's not that easy. because we don't know the real purpose of the russian invasion of ukraine.
we only know the reasons that only circulate through the news that is spread.

because I think this invasion is a big step which is also tough for Russia. Of course they have a big reason behind it.

JoyMarsha

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Arbitrary sanctions by the west could also be viewed as an existential threat by Russia. World leaders should save the world. Ego and unnecessary selfishness will lead us nowhere other than another World War which will be likely fought with the nukes.

dunfida

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Quote from: cryptomaniac_xxx on March 23, 2022, 01:16:25 PM

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Quote from: Joshapat on March 23, 2022, 06:29:21 AM

The economy is getting closer to Russia, but I'm sure this has been carefully taken into account, but because Russia has a strong allies like China, I'm sure the sanctions will not have too much impact, besides that Russia has oil reserves and the gas needed by the European state so that it has the power to Avoid strict economic sanctions such as other countries.

Of course, the Russians didn't just stand still and calculated the worst-case scenario,
I think Russia knows that they will be subject to sanctions by various countries but of course the brands also have a strategy to deal with this,
Let's see what happens next and let's follow the progress

Maybe they have calculated it from the beginning, but they know that they still have the last laugh because of the oil they have. The supplied Europe and now that sanctions are around, Europe and the world are suffering from the gas hike as an effect. So we really don't know who will win in this war, but for sure, there will be suffering from both sides and maybe Russia can't survived that long with all the sanctions from the West, just saying.

They are really that confident because they do really have that huge reserve not only talking on some resources but totally speaking on their back up funds and of course they had already anticipated for this thing to

happen speaking with sanctions in global scale manner because into what they have done.So far they are really still holding on despite of those sanctions that they are facing on.
Yes, it would really be giving out economic effect but it seems they dont really put up much focus for that for now.

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Quote from: ChiBitCTy on March 22, 2022, 08:47:51 PM

This is a question I’ve been asking myself as well as time has gone on and as we’ve seen more and more sanctions being handed out. I think a large part of it is going to come from the people themselves, they are of course going to feel the ramifications of this hitting their pocket books, so the questions becomes when is enough enough for them?

I sure hope they are hurting their economy is a big way. We need this war to win immediately.

Agreed. Major investment agencies believe Russia is heading toward default. Also, while the prognosis for Russian economy is -8%, which seems like a joke, it's worth to know that when in 1998 the GDP decreased by 4.6% (so, it's almost twice the difference), and it was called a financial crisis, inflation was at 84%, and Russia recovered fast largely because of heavy trading with the world which isn't exactly an option this time, and another reason listed is the national industry benefiting due to increased prices on imported goods, but that's not going to be the case either because there will barely be any imported goods. But still, of course Ukraine needs the West to impose stronger sanctions, because these processes can take many months to unravel, whereas our civilians are dying every day.

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Quote from: Joshapat on March 23, 2022, 06:29:21 AM

The economy is getting closer to Russia, but I'm sure this has been carefully taken into account, but because Russia has a strong allies like China, I'm sure the sanctions will not have too much impact, besides that Russia has oil reserves and the gas needed by the European state so that it has the power to Avoid strict economic sanctions such as other countries.

Of course, the Russians didn't just stand still and calculated the worst-case scenario,
I think Russia knows that they will be subject to sanctions by various countries but of course the brands also have a strategy to deal with this,
Let's see what happens next and let's follow the progress

Maybe they have calculated it from the beginning, but they know that they still have the last laugh because of the oil they have. The supplied Europe and now that sanctions are around, Europe and the world are suffering from the gas hike as an effect. So we really don't know who will win in this war, but for sure, there will be suffering from both sides and maybe Russia can't survived that long with all the sanctions from the West, just saying.

Findingnemo

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Quote from: Joshapat on March 23, 2022, 06:29:21 AM

The economy is getting closer to Russia, but I'm sure this has been carefully taken into account, but because Russia has a strong allies like China, I'm sure the sanctions will not have too much impact, besides that Russia has oil reserves and the gas needed by the European state so that it has the power to Avoid strict economic sanctions such as other countries.

Sanction back fired the allies, gas prices hitting sky high so everyone is going to be affected especially western countries including NATO, now the new era begins because Putin announced that people can only buy gas from Russia with Ruble so its going to affect the USD too soon.

darewaller

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Quote from: bakasabo on March 22, 2022, 05:17:38 AM

Main harm that is made by sanctions are hundred thousand, if not a million of unemployed people. People who worked with import and foreign companies. I am sure that Russian economy could handle with inflation, and lack of goods from abroad. China will help them with it, all they need to do right now is to solve logistics issues. But the huge amount of unemployed will be real problem. Without work, people start to become dumb. Uneducated, dumb crowd is uncontrolled and dangerous.

It is obvious that there will always be some people who will be upset over the fact that Russia got sanctions (mainly Russians). I mean Russians may not be happy about the fact that they are unemployed and living in a horrible situation right now, but what did you expected when you have a dictator?

I get that you may not have enough power to overthrow a dictator, he may get you killed, jailed and basically do something horrible. But at the end of the day, we are talking about a dictator and you can't really blame the world for not working with you because of it. You have to blame your dictator, not the west. If they can't learn that, they can't get better.

Joshapat

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The economy is getting closer to Russia, but I'm sure this has been carefully taken into account, but because Russia has a strong allies like China, I'm sure the sanctions will not have too much impact, besides that Russia has oil reserves and the gas needed by the European state so that it has the power to Avoid strict economic sanctions such as other countries.

bakasabo

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Quote from: darkangel11 on March 22, 2022, 03:07:28 PM

It was funny, but not a serious blunder like sending a group of tanks into a muddy field just to lose all of them. I've seen pictures of 4 or 5 tanks stuck in the same place in the mud. These are billions of dollars in equipment lost to stupidity.

Tanks stuck in mud ? This is really lack of tactical education...

Do you really believe in all that stories of dumb Russian soldiers, that went to fuel station when they ran out of fuel ? I dont believe that tanks run on regular fuel, or use regular car diesel. Or the story when a granny shot down Russian war drone with a jar of cucumbers? I would not believe in anything mass media show or tell.

Casualties are from both sides. Both sides have their own truth. Both sides have idiots. Both sides should stop military actions.

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Quote from: Rruchi man on February 28, 2022, 11:36:20 AM

-Do you think Russia can survive, and how can they survive the harsh economic realities that they are about to experience? Are the sanctions sufficient to push Putin into a decision to stop the invasion?

I do believe that the Russian economy can survive at the moment, even if the sanctions are getting worse. At the beginning of the Ukraine Russia war it seemed very bad for Russia with all the sanctions, the biggest one removing Russia from swift system. The concern were that Russia is going to default on its foreign currency debt. This didn't happen luckily. American banks still keep open channels with Russia and coupon payments have been made. So Russia is not completely isolated and the debt prices recovered considerably. As for all dealings in rubble, Putin can just print more of them.
The main export for Russia is Oil and Gas, while some countries and companies said they are not going to make new contracts with Russia for future supply, the old contracts are still valid and being paid. Many countries in the European Union made it clear they are not going to stop relying on Russian imports. It's one thing to try and hurt Russia, but you can destroy your own economy because of it. Fuel prices are through the roof in Europe, inflation is rising. I think the West will keep trading with Putin and stabilise the Russian economy.

ChiBitCTy

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Quote from: Rruchi man on February 28, 2022, 11:36:20 AM

With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, almost all sectors & big businesses in Russia have been hit with huge Sanctions against them both from the United States, the United Kingdom and other internationally related bodies. Sanctions have hit the Russian central bank, other small russian banks, big business and companies in Russia from airlines to manufacturing have been affected as well and many assets private and government owned has been frozen.

-Do you think Russia can survive, and how can they survive the harsh economic realities that they are about to experience? Are the sanctions sufficient to push Putin into a decision to stop the invasion?

This is a question I’ve been asking myself as well as time has gone on and as we’ve seen more and more sanctions being handed out. I think a large part of it is going to come from the people themselves, they are of course going to feel the ramifications of this hitting their pocket books, so the questions becomes when is enough enough for them?

I sure hope they are hurting their economy is a big way. We need this war to win immediately.

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Quote from: CaVO32 on March 22, 2022, 06:42:43 PM

Quote from: Lizzylove1 on March 22, 2022, 10:46:48 AM

The sanctions are already having a toil on the nation of Russia, international companies are closing down and leaving and that is a big loss to the people, people are loosing their jobs, I read that one of their airports has asked about 40% of their staff to go home as there is a low traffic at the airport. Russia will definitely look to China and other allies to evade the sanctions of the West. I hope we return to peace soon.

It is indeed happening and right now, what they can do is accept the situation and find ways how to survive during this war. They can always recover but it would be a long road ahead of them. Their people are not ready for this situation so they are grappling how to survive. Russia will always find their ally, maybe from China. So it is another giant economy, which can assist them in their recovery period.

Well, if they did manage to survive in the past then they will probably going to survive too in the future. That sanction is only on the west but majority of the Asian countries didn't join the west sanctioning Russia. Asian countries don't want to get involve on their land territory fight since they all know what's going to happen since it has embarked already on their history what they suffer when west joining wars.

That's what I believe though but time will tell what's it gonna be since Russia is one of the giant in terms of power. They know their history.

CaVO32

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Quote from: Lizzylove1 on March 22, 2022, 10:46:48 AM

The sanctions are already having a toil on the nation of Russia, international companies are closing down and leaving and that is a big loss to the people, people are loosing their jobs, I read that one of their airports has asked about 40% of their staff to go home as there is a low traffic at the airport. Russia will definitely look to China and other allies to evade the sanctions of the West. I hope we return to peace soon.

It is indeed happening and right now, what they can do is accept the situation and find ways how to survive during this war. They can always recover but it would be a long road ahead of them. Their people are not ready for this situation so they are grappling how to survive. Russia will always find their ally, maybe from China. So it is another giant economy, which can assist them in their recovery period.

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Quote from: bakasabo on March 21, 2022, 04:45:40 AM

There are dump soldiers from both sides - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2G-n7fdYp_g. You get this from mass media, and they know how to manipulate with opinion. You can search for Russian propaganda and find similar bloopers from Ukrainian army. I can just say that in media war Russia is loosing badly.

I believe that smart people does not participate in war, dont fight. Smart people can solve everything with negotiations. And what we see right now are pawn, that pointlessly and without initiative doing orders like go there, shoot there.

"2 Russian generals". This is not the first time high ranked army serviceman are being killed. There is a rumor, that someone is cleaning this "high management" on purpose to perform takeover authorities.

The video you gave as an example of blunder isn't really showing anything big or stupid. This guy is most likely from territorial defense so he's just a citizen eager to fight with minimum training. He was playing around with the gun and dropped the magazine and was so ashamed that he tried to hide it, making the whole thing worse. I'm sure he knew how to fit the magazine back and he'd be able to do it if he wasn't trying to look at the camera and cover the gun with 1 hand while doing it. It was funny, but not a serious blunder like sending a group of tanks into a muddy field just to lose all of them. I've seen pictures of 4 or 5 tanks stuck in the same place in the mud. These are billions of dollars in equipment lost to stupidity.

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The sanctions are already having a toil on the nation of Russia, international companies are closing down and leaving and that is a big loss to the people, people are loosing their jobs, I read that one of their airports has asked about 40% of their staff to go home as there is a low traffic at the airport. Russia will definitely look to China and other allies to evade the sanctions of the West. I hope we return to peace soon.

Topic: Sanctions left and right, Can the Russian economy survive? - page 3. (Read 1033 times)