Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 29.

bb113

hero member

Activity: 728

Merit: 500

Quote from: dooglus on March 22, 2013, 09:51:21 PM

Quote from: MeatPopsicle on March 22, 2013, 05:42:15 PM

So in other words if people who didn't know (or thought they knew) statistics would bet on lessthan 2 and lessthan 8 because they're 'due' to win since their payouts is <1% and ~1% respectively.

or avoid those bets because they're unlucky... Superstition works in both directions.

Dooglas, can you increase the line thickness on your charts. My colorblind eyes have trouble.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: MeatPopsicle on March 22, 2013, 05:42:15 PM

So in other words if people who didn't know (or thought they knew) statistics would bet on lessthan 2 and lessthan 8 because they're 'due' to win since their payouts is <1% and ~1% respectively.

or avoid those bets because they're unlucky... Superstition works in both directions.

bb113

hero member

Activity: 728

Merit: 500

Quote from: organofcorti on March 18, 2013, 03:43:02 AM

Simulation results:

This histogram is the result of running a thousand repetitions of 1127422 trials and record the longest number of losses in a row. From the simulated results, we can say that the probability of less than 16 in a row and more than 31 in a row is less than one in a thousand. So I'd say 65 in a row is significantly improbable.

Since I'm home now I've looked for the paper I thought I had but can't find it. The histogram looks familiar though and I think it might be an extreme value distribution, but I'm not sure. I'll keep looking.

If you want to try the simulation for yourself, especially if you have a faster computer than my macbook air and want to try more than a thousand repetitions, here's the R script I wrote:

Code:

require(ggplot2)

# function to generate simulated maximum losses in a row
sim.func <- function(x) {
#create x trials: win = 1, loss = 0
# and find all wins and losses in a row
a <- rle(rbinom(x, 1, 32000/65536))
# find the longest number of losses in a row
b <- max(a$lengths[which(a$values == 0)])
# if no losses, return 0 otherwise return b
if(b == -Inf){return(0)} else {return(b)}
}
# number of trials
trials <- 1127422

# number of repetition of trials
# change for greater accuracy
repetitions <- 1000

# generate results
result <- sapply(rep(trials, repetitions), sim.func)
result.df <- data.frame(count = result)

# generate plot
plot.1 <- ggplot(result.df, aes(x=count)) +
geom_bar(binwidth=1) +
scale_x_continuous(breaks=seq(min(result.df),max(result.df),2)) +
labs( x = "", y = "Count",
title = "Histogram of simulated maximum number of sequential losses:\n1000 repetitions of 1127422 trials at P(win) = 32000/65536") +
xlab("") + ylab("count")

# display plot
plot.1

#eof

100K iterations:

Does it say anywhere in the satoshi dice small print that the lucky numbers are ordered randomly though? They may introduce such runs to give an advantage over martingale strategies while also having long win runs to cancel this out. Someone who has the data should make a histogram of the actual loss and win runs.

MeatPopsicle

newbie

Activity: 49

Merit: 0

So in other words if people who didn't know (or thought they knew) statistics would bet on lessthan 2 and lessthan 8 because they're 'due' to win since their payouts is <1% and ~1% respectively.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: MeatPopsicle on March 22, 2013, 04:17:44 PM

What's the RTP column again?

Return To Player.

It's the payouts as a percentage of the bet amount.

It should be around 98.1% for each bet, eventually.

RTP values over 100% mean the house is losing overall on that bet. For lessthan 1 it's currently over 300%, meaning the house has paid out more than 3 times as much as it has taken in bets on that outcome.

MeatPopsicle

newbie

Activity: 49

Merit: 0

What's the RTP column again?

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote

Total of 86 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Mar-22 09:17am (up to block 227407)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 106429 | 3 (0.00003) | 104786 | 1640 | 1252.69 | 3840.74 | 129.39 | -2588.04 | 306.598
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 5583 | 0 (0.00000) | 5054 | 529 | 95.60 | 0.06 | 20.72 | 95.54 | 0.071
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 8036 | 1 (0.00013) | 7580 | 455 | 122.77 | 160.03 | 12.84 | -37.25 | 130.347
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 13388 | 5 (0.00039) | 12909 | 474 | 266.15 | 432.18 | 10.09 | -166.03 | 162.384
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 14801 | 1 (0.00007) | 14355 | 445 | 513.08 | 5.14 | 22.07 | 507.94 | 1.003
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 20220 | 9 (0.00045) | 19801 | 410 | 1150.94 | 1396.62 | 1.43 | -245.68 | 121.346
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 20775 | 24 (0.00118) | 20276 | 475 | 1514.55 | 803.57 | 55.83 | 710.98 | 53.057
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 19822 | 38 (0.00196) | 19323 | 461 | 2349.16 | 1562.74 | 48.39 | 786.42 | 66.523
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 25040 | 109 (0.00442) | 24544 | 387 | 5882.35 | 8643.05 | 13.20 | -2760.69 | 146.932
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 35542 | 287 (0.00824) | 34550 | 705 | 8122.76 | 6657.57 | 10.06 | 1465.19 | 81.962
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 123691 | 1871 (0.01519) | 121291 | 529 | 39068.06 | 33656.53 | 2.08 | 5411.52 | 86.148
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 24828 | 574 (0.02346) | 23895 | 359 | 7734.53 | 8550.60 | 15.09 | -816.06 | 110.551
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 78121 | 2414 (0.03106) | 75308 | 399 | 39196.79 | 35068.29 | 9.37 | 4128.50 | 89.467
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 29054 | 1320 (0.04614) | 27291 | 443 | 9478.78 | 10075.73 | 25.20 | -596.95 | 106.298
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 35011 | 2140 (0.06183) | 32473 | 398 | 7657.07 | 7448.75 | 31.37 | 208.31 | 97.279
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 48244 | 4401 (0.09211) | 43380 | 463 | 16384.66 | 18134.40 | 7.37 | -1749.73 | 110.679
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 188674 | 23091 (0.12272) | 165068 | 515 | 93631.52 | 92502.27 | 100.50 | 1129.24 | 98.794
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 98410 | 17937 (0.18330) | 79919 | 554 | 172906.62 | 174563.58 | 3314.95 | -1656.95 | 100.958
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 254517 | 61991 (0.24411) | 191951 | 575 | 369151.53 | 355183.72 | 2322.48 | 13967.81 | 96.216
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 253827 | 93200 (0.36805) | 160028 | 599 | 585566.89 | 577477.41 | 1013.27 | 8089.48 | 98.619
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1139256 | 555108 (0.48798) | 582465 | 1683 | 888967.23 | 871091.96 | 2925.07 | 17875.27 | 97.989
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 623745 | 311017 (0.49957) | 311553 | 1175 | 668053.02 | 651763.00 | 6521.38 | 16290.02 | 97.562
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 352736 | 258792 (0.73506) | 93276 | 668 | 303348.23 | 295824.13 | 5455.37 | 7524.09 | 97.520
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 78152 | 61645 (0.79421) | 15973 | 534 | 62636.92 | 61241.35 | 1187.64 | 1395.56 | 97.772
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 67664 | 57493 (0.85720) | 9578 | 593 | 78911.88 | 78249.32 | 400.62 | 662.56 | 99.160
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 104028 | 94819 (0.91649) | 8640 | 569 | 72475.69 | 71502.69 | 0.58 | 973.00 | 98.657
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 17644 | 16145 (0.97991) | 331 | 1168 | 24326.17 | 23912.71 | 240.29 | 413.46 | 98.300
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 3669794 | 1511073 | 2141808 | 16913 | 790684.31 | 777390.33 | 268.10 | 13293.98 | 98.319
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 117444 | 53362 | 63790 | 292 | 2670081.46 | 2612357.93 | 23628.70 | 57723.53 | 97.838
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 3787238 | 1564435 | 2205598 | 17205 | 3460765.78 | 3389748.26 | 23896.80 | 71017.51 | 97.948
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 71017.51924560 BTC (2.052%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 2989.02297500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 68028.49627060 BTC (1.966%)
Pending Liabilities: -65.16813498 BTC
Final SD Profit: 68093.66440558 BTC (1.968%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 11905652 : SatoshiDice Tx: 6964914 (58.5%)
Blockchain MB: 5126.6 : SatoshiDice MB: 2867.0 (55.9%)

ingrownpocket

legendary

Activity: 952

Merit: 1000

Quote from: zvs on March 22, 2013, 12:56:59 AM

i just happened to be watching about 5 minutes ago & someone else won on the 'under 1' category, 640 back

it was:

http://blockchain.info/address/15MizdAbunve8vVrooUtn3j3DF7R5Ebwbd

also was alternating transaction fees, between 0.0005 and 0.00105, so maybe trying to double spend, too... but guess it doesn't matter on the win?

http://satoshidice.com/full.php?tx=44a7e34a8f37a91d9decd698f156627263f66977b8e61253537a0658d9e275f5

zvs

legendary

Activity: 1680

Merit: 1000

https://web.archive.org/web/*/nogleg.com

i just happened to be watching about 5 minutes ago & someone else won on the 'under 1' category, 640 back

it was:

http://blockchain.info/address/15MizdAbunve8vVrooUtn3j3DF7R5Ebwbd

also was alternating transaction fees, between 0.0005 and 0.00105, so maybe trying to double spend, too... but guess it doesn't matter on the win?

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

The graphs only show confirmed payouts, so the big lessthan 1 bet isn't included yet, but it does show up as a pending liability, and in the bottom line:

Quote

Total of 155 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Mar-21 12:26pm (up to block 227207)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 104433 | 1 (0.00001) | 102809 | 1623 | 1225.68 | 1280.61 | 127.41 | -54.93 | 104.482
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 5537 | 0 (0.00000) | 5010 | 527 | 94.43 | 0.06 | 20.72 | 94.36 | 0.065
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 7984 | 1 (0.00013) | 7528 | 455 | 121.14 | 160.02 | 12.84 | -38.88 | 132.099
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 12840 | 5 (0.00040) | 12362 | 473 | 254.71 | 432.12 | 10.09 | -177.41 | 169.650
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 14516 | 1 (0.00007) | 14070 | 445 | 506.11 | 5.10 | 22.07 | 501.00 | 1.010
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 19699 | 9 (0.00047) | 19280 | 410 | 1127.66 | 1396.50 | 1.43 | -268.84 | 123.840
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 20292 | 24 (0.00121) | 19794 | 474 | 1486.43 | 803.43 | 55.83 | 683.00 | 54.051
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 19767 | 38 (0.00197) | 19268 | 461 | 2347.71 | 1562.73 | 48.39 | 784.98 | 66.564
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 24963 | 108 (0.00439) | 24469 | 386 | 5878.86 | 8640.54 | 13.20 | -2761.67 | 146.976
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 35462 | 285 (0.00820) | 34472 | 705 | 8120.57 | 6652.56 | 10.06 | 1468.00 | 81.922
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 123100 | 1864 (0.01521) | 120707 | 529 | 38273.41 | 32681.55 | 2.08 | 5591.85 | 85.390
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 24773 | 573 (0.02347) | 23842 | 358 | 7732.17 | 8550.16 | 15.09 | -817.99 | 110.579
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 77649 | 2403 (0.03111) | 74847 | 399 | 38372.69 | 34098.18 | 9.37 | 4274.50 | 88.861
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 28983 | 1319 (0.04621) | 27224 | 440 | 9469.05 | 10075.36 | 25.19 | -606.31 | 106.403
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 34936 | 2132 (0.06172) | 32409 | 395 | 7654.53 | 7446.66 | 31.36 | 207.86 | 97.284
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 48047 | 4380 (0.09205) | 43204 | 463 | 16373.02 | 18126.75 | 7.37 | -1753.72 | 110.711
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 188146 | 23023 (0.12270) | 164609 | 514 | 92704.92 | 91572.61 | 100.49 | 1132.31 | 98.779
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 97867 | 17833 (0.18325) | 79480 | 554 | 171874.25 | 173588.52 | 3314.95 | -1714.26 | 100.997
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 253595 | 61765 (0.24411) | 191255 | 575 | 368477.69 | 354435.29 | 2322.48 | 14042.39 | 96.189
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 252909 | 92858 (0.36803) | 159453 | 598 | 584938.01 | 576809.82 | 1013.26 | 8128.19 | 98.610
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1137511 | 554272 (0.48799) | 581557 | 1682 | 887734.68 | 869478.66 | 2925.07 | 18256.02 | 97.944
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 621816 | 310075 (0.49960) | 310570 | 1171 | 667347.47 | 651240.32 | 6521.37 | 16107.15 | 97.586
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 351748 | 258082 (0.73509) | 93006 | 660 | 303153.24 | 295637.34 | 5455.35 | 7515.90 | 97.521
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 77743 | 61309 (0.79406) | 15901 | 533 | 62450.19 | 61151.39 | 1187.63 | 1298.79 | 97.920
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 67156 | 57051 (0.85707) | 9514 | 591 | 78760.80 | 78093.35 | 400.62 | 667.44 | 99.153
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 103239 | 94091 (0.91642) | 8581 | 567 | 72245.85 | 71270.13 | 0.58 | 975.71 | 98.649
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 17446 | 15956 (0.97992) | 327 | 1163 | 24258.09 | 23845.37 | 240.28 | 412.72 | 98.299
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 3655453 | 1506280 | 2132314 | 16859 | 788776.48 | 773197.33 | 266.02 | 15579.14 | 98.025
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 116704 | 53178 | 63234 | 292 | 2664207.01 | 2605837.94 | 23628.70 | 58369.07 | 97.809
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 3772157 | 1559458 | 2195548 | 17151 | 3452983.50 | 3379035.28 | 23894.72 | 73948.21 | 97.858
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 73948.21883620 BTC (2.142%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 2973.37997500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 70974.83886120 BTC (2.055%)
Pending Liabilities: 1786.48765676 BTC
Final SD Profit: 69188.35120444 BTC (2.004%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 11855457 : SatoshiDice Tx: 6938263 (58.5%)
Blockchain MB: 5102.7 : SatoshiDice MB: 2855.7 (56.0%)

MeatPopsicle

newbie

Activity: 49

Merit: 0

If they were sane, they wouldn't keep that much online, I'd imagine for all payments greater then $foo there's probably some oversight. But yes, there's no reason it shouldn't have been sent by now.

FTWbitcoinFTW

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

Quote from: apetersson on March 21, 2013, 02:44:39 PM

why can't i find the actual winnings payment TX?

Same question

Address : http://blockchain.info/address/1GH1PJjbL5KXLzAAjnYEcJrqCwJVJ9r8zs

apetersson

hero member

Activity: 668

Merit: 501

why can't i find the actual winnings payment TX?

DutchBrat

hero member

Activity: 868

Merit: 1000

Quote from: ingrownpocket on March 21, 2013, 01:32:02 PM

http://www.satoshidice.com/full.php?tx=d602ad09f967f11d50fcb2f98df8d001a812ce4965d6e69340f8961aeb32f27c

Shocked

Damn, now that is a nice win !!! almost $ 140.000 Cheesy

ingrownpocket

legendary

Activity: 952

Merit: 1000

http://www.satoshidice.com/full.php?tx=d602ad09f967f11d50fcb2f98df8d001a812ce4965d6e69340f8961aeb32f27c

Shocked

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote

Total of 49 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Mar-20 01:20pm (up to block 227001)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 103606 | 1 (0.00001) | 101987 | 1618 | 1212.85 | 1280.54 | 127.39 | -67.69 | 105.582
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 5418 | 0 (0.00000) | 4891 | 527 | 93.00 | 0.05 | 20.72 | 92.95 | 0.059
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 7869 | 1 (0.00013) | 7413 | 455 | 119.55 | 160.02 | 12.84 | -40.46 | 133.851
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 12793 | 5 (0.00041) | 12315 | 473 | 254.02 | 432.12 | 10.09 | -178.09 | 170.110
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 14464 | 1 (0.00007) | 14019 | 444 | 504.73 | 5.10 | 22.07 | 499.63 | 1.011
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 19611 | 9 (0.00047) | 19193 | 409 | 1124.02 | 1396.49 | 1.43 | -272.46 | 124.240
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 20180 | 24 (0.00122) | 19682 | 474 | 1483.30 | 803.41 | 55.83 | 679.88 | 54.164
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 19726 | 38 (0.00197) | 19227 | 461 | 2346.81 | 1562.72 | 48.39 | 784.08 | 66.589
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 24858 | 108 (0.00441) | 24364 | 386 | 5809.30 | 8640.19 | 13.20 | -2830.89 | 148.730
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 35350 | 285 (0.00823) | 34360 | 705 | 8105.45 | 6652.48 | 10.06 | 1452.97 | 82.074
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 122431 | 1854 (0.01521) | 120050 | 527 | 37942.61 | 32638.32 | 2.07 | 5304.29 | 86.020
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 24718 | 571 (0.02344) | 23789 | 358 | 7681.10 | 8378.91 | 15.09 | -697.80 | 109.085
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 77101 | 2389 (0.03115) | 74314 | 398 | 38089.24 | 34076.24 | 9.37 | 4013.00 | 89.464
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 28917 | 1315 (0.04618) | 27162 | 440 | 9357.85 | 10073.52 | 25.19 | -715.67 | 107.648
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 34888 | 2129 (0.06172) | 32365 | 394 | 7652.59 | 7443.14 | 31.36 | 209.45 | 97.263
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 47893 | 4367 (0.09207) | 43066 | 460 | 16307.24 | 18094.54 | 7.36 | -1787.30 | 110.960
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 187255 | 22915 (0.12271) | 163828 | 512 | 92301.13 | 90967.67 | 100.48 | 1333.46 | 98.555
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 97305 | 17731 (0.18326) | 79020 | 554 | 171577.63 | 173241.18 | 3314.95 | -1663.54 | 100.970
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 251659 | 61314 (0.24419) | 189773 | 572 | 368026.12 | 354133.80 | 2322.48 | 13892.31 | 96.225
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 251922 | 92504 (0.36807) | 158821 | 597 | 584551.94 | 576394.26 | 1013.26 | 8157.68 | 98.604
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1135494 | 553299 (0.48800) | 580518 | 1677 | 886821.70 | 868491.31 | 2925.05 | 18330.39 | 97.933
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 619570 | 308943 (0.49958) | 309459 | 1168 | 666654.20 | 650595.99 | 6521.36 | 16058.21 | 97.591
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 350445 | 257138 (0.73513) | 92649 | 658 | 302888.46 | 295386.93 | 5455.35 | 7501.53 | 97.523
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 77146 | 60854 (0.79429) | 15760 | 532 | 62311.87 | 61019.62 | 1187.63 | 1292.24 | 97.926
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 66390 | 56385 (0.85685) | 9420 | 585 | 78510.16 | 77847.48 | 400.58 | 662.68 | 99.156
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 102241 | 93173 (0.91636) | 8504 | 564 | 71911.91 | 70945.61 | 0.56 | 966.30 | 98.656
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 17273 | 15790 (0.97971) | 327 | 1156 | 24189.19 | 23776.16 | 240.27 | 413.02 | 98.293
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 3640186 | 1500063 | 2123311 | 16812 | 786583.37 | 771140.34 | 265.85 | 15443.03 | 98.037
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 116337 | 53080 | 62965 | 292 | 2661244.73 | 2603297.58 | 23628.70 | 57947.15 | 97.823
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 3756523 | 1553143 | 2186276 | 17104 | 3447828.11 | 3374437.92 | 23894.55 | 73390.19 | 97.871
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 73390.19062760 BTC (2.129%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 2957.71537500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 70432.47525260 BTC (2.043%)
Pending Liabilities: -65.14752384 BTC
Final SD Profit: 70497.62277644 BTC (2.045%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 11804054 : SatoshiDice Tx: 6910079 (58.5%)
Blockchain MB: 5078.7 : SatoshiDice MB: 2843.7 (56.0%)

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Some of the recent big bets:

Quote

Tue Mar 19 00:51:55 2013 <32000 226656 c982e858edbd80cc:3 1EMCSk7CTVZU5JELx7bKiSt5SHtbfgFfUH BET 12.80000000 LOSE -12.73600000
Tue Mar 19 00:54:30 2013 <32000 226657 3891265e256d0f1c:0 1EMCSk7CTVZU5JELx7bKiSt5SHtbfgFfUH BET 25.60000000 LOSE -25.47200000
Tue Mar 19 01:47:15 2013 <32000 226660 3bfdcda75c3fce7e:1 1EMCSk7CTVZU5JELx7bKiSt5SHtbfgFfUH BET 51.20000000 LOSE -50.94400000
Tue Mar 19 01:59:41 2013 <32000 226661 595dc785b33be9f6:0 1GEvQXYptHBx8vrCvbyAeRoATDi5jShqWU BET 100.00000000 LOSE -99.50000000
Tue Mar 19 02:13:32 2013 <32000 226662 5d3f51cd17db153b:0 1B7knWTDp2xq6gkMdoLv5UpE1wZuUBtBgV BET 200.00000000 LOSE -199.00000000
Tue Mar 19 02:20:26 2013 <32000 226663 1638ff60b7844a7e:0 1Mwa4cqNKenC7o2hAdByd6c4kYs8rN1Czr BET 400.00000000 LOSE -398.00000000

Tue Mar 19 04:31:41 2013 <32000 226677 4855a6154ba86425:0 18eYvQjX42xGRFeUeufcuKpqYejoJk5WUz BET 400.00000000 WIN 401.53920000

Tue Mar 19 06:07:03 2013 <48000 226691 a2d8f83241217ee7:0 13JK7mnEbQcoUj83WXESLmWJVGSTAK53J7 BET 20.00000000 LOSE -19.90000000
Tue Mar 19 06:35:58 2013 <48000 226694 c50e3a659e00cc45:0 13JK7mnEbQcoUj83WXESLmWJVGSTAK53J7 BET 40.00000000 LOSE -39.80000000
Tue Mar 19 07:15:48 2013 <32000 226697 eb9d81dcf7b97b9a:0 1NkXTYELvEu9vRBftGupGfErraajc4Qnnh BET 82.00000000 LOSE -81.59000000
Tue Mar 19 07:36:29 2013 <32000 226700 848bc526110e8983:1 1NPxBmoBUFQqpH9SwaeKqBeALfi99TWc7F BET 167.77000000 LOSE -166.93115000

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote

Total of 51 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Mar-19 10:55am (up to block 226786)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 103083 | 1 (0.00001) | 101467 | 1615 | 1205.57 | 1280.51 | 127.38 | -74.93 | 106.216
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 5407 | 0 (0.00000) | 4880 | 527 | 92.85 | 0.05 | 20.72 | 92.80 | 0.058
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 7855 | 1 (0.00014) | 7399 | 455 | 119.23 | 160.02 | 12.84 | -40.78 | 134.209
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 12782 | 5 (0.00041) | 12305 | 472 | 253.74 | 432.12 | 10.09 | -178.37 | 170.299
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 14451 | 1 (0.00007) | 14007 | 443 | 504.48 | 5.10 | 22.07 | 499.38 | 1.011
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 19588 | 9 (0.00047) | 19171 | 408 | 1123.34 | 1396.48 | 1.42 | -273.13 | 124.315
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 20148 | 24 (0.00122) | 19652 | 472 | 1482.77 | 803.41 | 55.83 | 679.35 | 54.183
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 19714 | 38 (0.00197) | 19215 | 461 | 2346.51 | 1562.72 | 48.39 | 783.79 | 66.598
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 24846 | 108 (0.00442) | 24353 | 385 | 5806.07 | 8640.17 | 13.20 | -2834.10 | 148.813
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 35322 | 284 (0.00820) | 34335 | 703 | 8102.74 | 6651.22 | 10.05 | 1451.52 | 82.086
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 121967 | 1843 (0.01518) | 119597 | 527 | 37868.48 | 32601.49 | 2.07 | 5266.99 | 86.091
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 24693 | 571 (0.02346) | 23764 | 358 | 7679.70 | 8378.90 | 15.09 | -699.20 | 109.105
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 76698 | 2379 (0.03118) | 73921 | 398 | 37982.76 | 33999.91 | 9.37 | 3982.84 | 89.514
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 28886 | 1314 (0.04619) | 27133 | 439 | 9349.60 | 10071.35 | 25.18 | -721.74 | 107.720
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 34861 | 2127 (0.06171) | 32341 | 393 | 7651.32 | 7441.22 | 31.36 | 210.10 | 97.254
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 47744 | 4353 (0.09206) | 42931 | 460 | 16285.74 | 18056.25 | 7.36 | -1770.50 | 110.872
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 186750 | 22864 (0.12277) | 163375 | 511 | 92085.13 | 90881.73 | 100.48 | 1203.40 | 98.693
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 96890 | 17653 (0.18324) | 78686 | 551 | 171385.52 | 173106.26 | 3314.93 | -1720.74 | 101.004
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 250073 | 60904 (0.24410) | 188600 | 569 | 367809.05 | 353922.68 | 2322.47 | 13886.36 | 96.225
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 250880 | 92136 (0.36813) | 158147 | 597 | 584377.76 | 576207.28 | 1013.26 | 8170.47 | 98.602
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1133650 | 552409 (0.48800) | 579567 | 1674 | 886338.37 | 868056.73 | 2925.04 | 18281.63 | 97.937
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 617273 | 307827 (0.49963) | 308282 | 1164 | 665659.47 | 649685.22 | 6521.35 | 15974.25 | 97.600
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 349039 | 256094 (0.73509) | 92289 | 656 | 302532.53 | 295034.14 | 5455.35 | 7498.38 | 97.521
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 76805 | 60594 (0.79438) | 15684 | 527 | 62088.47 | 60819.12 | 1187.61 | 1269.34 | 97.956
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 65798 | 55872 (0.85675) | 9342 | 584 | 78260.74 | 77602.77 | 400.58 | 657.96 | 99.159
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 101357 | 92363 (0.91635) | 8431 | 563 | 71624.13 | 70808.70 | 0.56 | 815.43 | 98.862
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 17172 | 15698 (0.97966) | 326 | 1148 | 24178.52 | 23765.45 | 240.26 | 413.06 | 98.292
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 3627559 | 1494451 | 2116340 | 16768 | 784609.63 | 769255.93 | 265.72 | 15353.69 | 98.043
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 116173 | 53021 | 62860 | 292 | 2659585.07 | 2602115.18 | 23628.70 | 57469.89 | 97.839
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 3743732 | 1547472 | 2179200 | 17060 | 3444194.71 | 3371371.12 | 23894.43 | 72823.59 | 97.886
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 72823.59070833 BTC (2.114%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 2944.91287500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 69878.67783333 BTC (2.029%)
Pending Liabilities: -70.17872411 BTC
Final SD Profit: 69948.85655744 BTC (2.031%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 11754760 : SatoshiDice Tx: 6886914 (58.6%)
Blockchain MB: 5056.5 : SatoshiDice MB: 2833.8 (56.0%)

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

The recent activity seems to be someone betting 5 BTC on lessthan 256 over and over, and winning once:

http://www.satoshidice.com/lookup.php?tx=dc0c383dabfaeec4

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote

Total of 116 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Mar-18 10:11am (up to block 226585)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 101988 | 1 (0.00001) | 100377 | 1610 | 1192.71 | 1280.44 | 127.16 | -87.72 | 107.355
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 5394 | 0 (0.00000) | 4867 | 527 | 91.80 | 0.04 | 20.72 | 91.75 | 0.053
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 7843 | 1 (0.00014) | 7388 | 454 | 118.97 | 160.01 | 12.84 | -41.04 | 134.496
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 12771 | 5 (0.00041) | 12295 | 471 | 253.25 | 432.12 | 10.09 | -178.86 | 170.624
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 14440 | 1 (0.00007) | 13997 | 442 | 504.01 | 5.09 | 22.07 | 498.91 | 1.012
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 19557 | 9 (0.00047) | 19142 | 406 | 1118.92 | 1396.46 | 1.42 | -277.53 | 124.804
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 20129 | 24 (0.00122) | 19633 | 472 | 1482.20 | 803.41 | 55.83 | 678.78 | 54.204
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 19693 | 38 (0.00198) | 19195 | 460 | 2346.08 | 1562.72 | 48.39 | 783.36 | 66.610
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 24642 | 107 (0.00441) | 24150 | 385 | 5786.07 | 8615.09 | 13.20 | -2829.02 | 148.894
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 35169 | 283 (0.00821) | 34184 | 702 | 8043.53 | 6649.68 | 10.05 | 1393.85 | 82.671
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 120701 | 1828 (0.01521) | 118347 | 526 | 37575.90 | 32391.51 | 2.07 | 5184.38 | 86.203
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 24665 | 571 (0.02349) | 23736 | 358 | 7678.76 | 8378.90 | 15.09 | -700.13 | 109.118
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 75533 | 2341 (0.03116) | 72794 | 398 | 37767.33 | 33774.64 | 9.37 | 3992.68 | 89.428
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 28871 | 1314 (0.04622) | 27118 | 439 | 9349.22 | 10071.35 | 25.18 | -722.13 | 107.724
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 34830 | 2124 (0.06168) | 32313 | 393 | 7650.02 | 7440.57 | 31.36 | 209.45 | 97.262
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 47623 | 4343 (0.09208) | 42822 | 458 | 16225.95 | 18047.53 | 7.35 | -1821.57 | 111.226
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 186393 | 22828 (0.12281) | 163054 | 511 | 92039.23 | 90842.76 | 100.48 | 1196.46 | 98.700
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 96620 | 17587 (0.18306) | 78485 | 548 | 171362.02 | 173070.84 | 3314.92 | -1708.81 | 100.997
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 248991 | 60618 (0.24401) | 187805 | 568 | 367654.47 | 353716.85 | 2322.47 | 13937.61 | 96.209
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 249931 | 91792 (0.36815) | 157543 | 596 | 584211.49 | 576000.36 | 1013.26 | 8211.13 | 98.594
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1131917 | 551595 (0.48803) | 578653 | 1669 | 884082.39 | 866511.01 | 2925.02 | 17571.37 | 98.012
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 615371 | 306879 (0.49963) | 307335 | 1157 | 664912.95 | 648883.45 | 6521.31 | 16029.50 | 97.589
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 347427 | 254909 (0.73508) | 91868 | 650 | 300838.35 | 293322.99 | 5455.33 | 7515.35 | 97.502
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 76412 | 60282 (0.79438) | 15604 | 526 | 61876.44 | 60578.22 | 1187.60 | 1298.21 | 97.902
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 65123 | 55291 (0.85668) | 9250 | 582 | 78135.48 | 77479.40 | 400.57 | 656.07 | 99.160
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 100562 | 91622 (0.91622) | 8378 | 562 | 71478.41 | 70663.11 | 0.55 | 815.29 | 98.859
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 17101 | 15636 (0.97976) | 323 | 1142 | 24174.05 | 23761.04 | 240.25 | 413.01 | 98.291
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 3613734 | 1489139 | 2107875 | 16720 | 782102.39 | 766948.63 | 265.38 | 15153.75 | 98.062
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 115963 | 52890 | 62781 | 292 | 2655847.74 | 2598891.09 | 23628.70 | 56956.64 | 97.855
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 3729697 | 1542029 | 2170656 | 17012 | 3437950.14 | 3365839.73 | 23894.08 | 72110.40 | 97.903
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 72110.40752716 BTC (2.097%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 2930.85937500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 69179.54815216 BTC (2.012%)
Pending Liabilities: -62.78002244 BTC
Final SD Profit: 69242.32817460 BTC (2.014%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 11704937 : SatoshiDice Tx: 6863053 (58.6%)
Blockchain MB: 5033.2 : SatoshiDice MB: 2823.1 (56.1%)

Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 29. (Read 192889 times)