Bitcoin Forum>Economy>Marketplace>Service Discussion
Pages:
Author

Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 27. (Read 192914 times)

MeatPopsicle
newbie
Activity: 49
Merit: 0
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 30, 2013, 12:25:54 AM
#1082
Quote from: dooglus on March 29, 2013, 05:01:27 PM
A new whale appears?  12zHnb8nBQL3bDcWt69MhnRrthZUGFpikf

For those too lazy to dig:

Code:

      First Bet      |      Last Bet       |     bets      |   winnings    |    profit
---------------------+---------------------+---------------+---------------+--------------
 2013-03-28 19:11:46 | 2013-03-29 11:20:48 | 2394.00000000 | 2757.05458660 | 363.05458660  
FTWbitcoinFTW
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 29, 2013, 07:17:41 PM
#1081
Quote from: dooglus on March 29, 2013, 05:01:27 PM
A new whale appears?  12zHnb8nBQL3bDcWt69MhnRrthZUGFpikf

Hope so !
Like the last day of january (+15k)
Good old time when a 500btc bet was common  Lips sealed

We just need 3338 Btc more to match fiat february sum..


dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 29, 2013, 05:01:27 PM
#1080
A new whale appears?  12zHnb8nBQL3bDcWt69MhnRrthZUGFpikf

Quote
Total of 71 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Mar-29 03:00pm (up to block 228649)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   114162 |       3 (0.00003) |  112417 |    1742 |    1369.25 |    3841.32 |   137.01 |  -2472.07 | 280.542
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     6257 |       0 (0.00000) |    5711 |     546 |     104.12 |       0.11 |    21.66 |    104.01 |   0.106
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     8576 |       1 (0.00012) |    8116 |     459 |     132.29 |     160.08 |    14.52 |    -27.79 | 121.010
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    14810 |       5 (0.00035) |   14320 |     485 |     292.30 |     432.31 |    10.10 |   -140.00 | 147.897
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    15911 |       1 (0.00006) |   15460 |     450 |     550.36 |       5.33 |    22.09 |    545.03 |   0.969
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    22324 |      11 (0.00050) |   21900 |     413 |    1286.87 |    1537.22 |     1.44 |   -250.34 | 119.454
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    25684 |      32 (0.00127) |   25164 |     488 |    1886.97 |    1521.02 |    55.88 |    365.94 |  80.607
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    20478 |      38 (0.00190) |   19973 |     467 |    2368.89 |    1562.83 |    48.41 |    806.05 |  65.973
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    25711 |     112 (0.00442) |   25201 |     398 |    5988.75 |    8651.08 |    13.23 |  -2662.33 | 144.455
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    36444 |     294 (0.00823) |   35436 |     714 |    8204.54 |    6797.10 |    10.09 |   1407.44 |  82.846
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   128470 |    1947 (0.01522) |  125973 |     550 |   40718.33 |   35894.20 |     2.16 |   4824.12 |  88.152
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    25216 |     576 (0.02317) |   24280 |     360 |    7953.56 |    8554.68 |    15.10 |   -601.11 | 107.558
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    82053 |    2525 (0.03092) |   79127 |     401 |   40685.34 |   36566.59 |     9.38 |   4118.75 |  89.877
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    29791 |    1352 (0.04610) |   27976 |     463 |    9783.90 |   10619.36 |    25.30 |   -835.45 | 108.539
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    35692 |    2187 (0.06197) |   33105 |     400 |    7689.18 |    7498.35 |    31.38 |    190.83 |  97.518
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    49473 |    4512 (0.09208) |   44488 |     473 |   16750.89 |   18384.03 |     7.40 |  -1633.13 | 109.750
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   193388 |   23670 (0.12274) |  169180 |     538 |   95707.78 |   94674.25 |   100.61 |   1033.53 |  98.920
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   102206 |   18637 (0.18337) |   83000 |     569 |  174972.94 |  176031.79 |  3315.01 |  -1058.85 | 100.605
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   263945 |   64305 (0.24418) |  199051 |     589 |  372049.06 |  358042.10 |  2322.52 |  14006.95 |  96.235
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   259502 |   95263 (0.36796) |  163630 |     609 |  588560.05 |  580693.61 |  1013.30 |   7866.44 |  98.663
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1153319 |  561995 (0.48801) |  589610 |    1714 |  897802.18 |  879489.30 |  2925.16 |  18312.87 |  97.960
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   640004 |  319149 (0.49964) |  319611 |    1244 |  676287.81 |  659626.64 |  6521.62 |  16661.16 |  97.536
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   362666 |  266082 (0.73510) |   95885 |     699 |  306390.10 |  299273.22 |  6172.04 |   7116.88 |  97.677
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    80919 |   63840 (0.79441) |   16522 |     557 |   63466.20 |   62077.04 |  1187.69 |   1389.15 |  97.811
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    71874 |   61089 (0.85739) |   10161 |     624 |   80759.73 |   79991.02 |   400.72 |    768.70 |  99.048
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   110772 |  100909 (0.91606) |    9247 |     616 |   73339.41 |   72299.80 |     0.77 |   1039.60 |  98.582
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    18564 |   16971 (0.97979) |     350 |    1243 |   24506.74 |   24092.71 |   240.40 |    414.02 |  98.311
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3778939 | 1551554           | 2209867 |   17518 |  803345.52 |  789799.74 |   279.91 |  13545.78 |  98.314
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   119272 |   53952           |   65027 |     293 | 2696262.14 | 2638517.48 | 24345.21 |  57744.66 |  97.858
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3898211 | 1605506           | 2274894 |   17811 | 3499607.67 | 3428317.23 | 24625.13 |  71290.44 |  97.963
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      71290.44638075 BTC (2.037%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3105.67497500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       68184.77140575 BTC (1.948%)
Pending Liabilities:           -8.66642696 BTC
Final SD Profit:            68193.43783271 BTC (1.949%)
Profit This Month:           1517.07037483 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 12302879  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7163257  (58.2%)
Blockchain MB:   5314.8  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2951.3  (55.5%)



Jonny Heggheim
member
Activity: 74
Merit: 10
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 28, 2013, 08:33:15 PM
#1079
Quote from: dooglus on March 28, 2013, 07:06:48 PM
I've added 'profit this month' to the report now too:
+1, Thanks
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 28, 2013, 07:06:48 PM
#1078
Quote from: Ploo on March 28, 2013, 06:04:08 PM
Quote from: gog1 on March 28, 2013, 10:59:12 AM
I would like to suggest that if we can also graph a rolling 7 day average betting volume on SD (smooth out day of the week effect) and rolling average BTC / USD prices.  I speculate they are inversely correlated.  Betting 1 BTC is almost like betting $100 USD, which qualify you for high limit area for certain casino if you are playing $100 a bet.

I'd also like to see this.

Any idea where there's an API that gives me a history of BTC/USD price?

The 'end of last month' line has moved ever so slightly.  I was previously accidentally using Pacific time, whereas I think SatoshiDice uses the time in Ireland.

I've added 'profit this month' to the report now too:

Quote
Total of 36 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Mar-28 05:03pm (up to block 228491)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   112695 |       3 (0.00003) |  110961 |    1731 |    1350.21 |    3841.23 |   136.51 |  -2491.01 | 284.490
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     6100 |       0 (0.00000) |    5555 |     545 |     102.37 |       0.10 |    21.65 |    102.27 |   0.099
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     8535 |       1 (0.00012) |    8076 |     458 |     131.70 |     160.08 |    14.52 |    -28.37 | 121.544
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    14663 |       5 (0.00035) |   14176 |     482 |     290.57 |     432.30 |    10.10 |   -141.72 | 148.775
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    15862 |       1 (0.00006) |   15411 |     450 |     549.32 |       5.32 |    22.09 |    544.00 |   0.970
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    22003 |      10 (0.00046) |   21582 |     411 |    1268.62 |    1437.19 |     1.44 |   -168.56 | 113.288
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    25630 |      32 (0.00127) |   25112 |     486 |    1885.21 |    1521.01 |    55.87 |    364.19 |  80.681
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    20417 |      38 (0.00190) |   19914 |     465 |    2367.80 |    1562.83 |    48.41 |    804.97 |  66.003
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    25647 |     112 (0.00444) |   25137 |     398 |    5987.80 |    8651.08 |    13.23 |  -2663.28 | 144.478
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    36369 |     294 (0.00825) |   35363 |     712 |    8201.59 |    6797.08 |    10.08 |   1404.50 |  82.875
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   127475 |    1931 (0.01521) |  124998 |     546 |   40481.60 |   35155.11 |     2.14 |   5326.49 |  86.842
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    25160 |     576 (0.02323) |   24224 |     360 |    7952.35 |    8554.67 |    15.10 |   -602.32 | 107.574
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    81288 |    2505 (0.03097) |   78382 |     401 |   40445.99 |   36514.83 |     9.38 |   3931.16 |  90.280
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    29708 |    1350 (0.04616) |   27897 |     461 |    9782.29 |   10618.92 |    25.30 |   -836.63 | 108.553
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    35599 |    2181 (0.06196) |   33018 |     400 |    7685.27 |    7481.52 |    31.38 |    203.74 |  97.349
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    49240 |    4491 (0.09209) |   44278 |     471 |   16724.88 |   18291.48 |     7.40 |  -1566.59 | 109.367
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   192535 |   23568 (0.12275) |  168433 |     534 |   95456.94 |   94551.21 |   100.58 |    905.72 |  99.051
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   101545 |   18519 (0.18339) |   82461 |     565 |  174719.83 |  175952.31 |  3315.00 |  -1232.47 | 100.705
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   262695 |   64016 (0.24424) |  198091 |     588 |  371726.11 |  357860.21 |  2322.52 |  13865.89 |  96.270
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   258646 |   94963 (0.36802) |  163077 |     606 |  587989.99 |  580061.38 |  1013.29 |   7928.61 |  98.652
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1150847 |  560767 (0.48799) |  588374 |    1706 |  897231.35 |  878877.41 |  2925.14 |  18353.93 |  97.954
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   637851 |  318112 (0.49969) |  318508 |    1231 |  674307.26 |  658462.53 |  6521.56 |  15844.73 |  97.650
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   361019 |  264854 (0.73504) |   95470 |     695 |  305974.84 |  298878.14 |  6172.01 |   7096.69 |  97.681
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    80430 |   63459 (0.79447) |   16417 |     554 |   63385.24 |   61999.15 |  1187.69 |   1386.09 |  97.813
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    71224 |   60536 (0.85737) |   10071 |     617 |   80559.89 |   79797.32 |   400.70 |    762.56 |  99.053
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   109749 |   99988 (0.91609) |    9159 |     602 |   73180.13 |   72133.41 |     0.72 |   1046.72 |  98.570
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    18425 |   16850 (0.97982) |     347 |    1228 |   24448.22 |   24034.04 |   240.38 |    414.17 |  98.306
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3762307 | 1545288           | 2199609 |   17410 |  801277.58 |  787790.52 |   279.12 |  13487.05 |  98.317
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   119050 |   53874           |   64883 |     293 | 2692909.93 | 2635841.46 | 24345.21 |  57068.46 |  97.881
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3881357 | 1599162           | 2264492 |   17703 | 3494187.51 | 3423631.99 | 24624.34 |  70555.52 |  97.981
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      70555.52117293 BTC (2.019%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3088.00237500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       67467.51879793 BTC (1.931%)
Pending Liabilities:           -4.15814417 BTC
Final SD Profit:            67471.67694210 BTC (1.931%)
Profit This Month:            795.30948422 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 12245911  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7133221  (58.2%)
Blockchain MB:   5287.8  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2938.5  (55.6%)



Ploo
full member
Activity: 125
Merit: 100
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 28, 2013, 06:04:08 PM
#1077
Quote from: gog1 on March 28, 2013, 10:59:12 AM
I would like to suggest that if we can also graph a rolling 7 day average betting volume on SD (smooth out day of the week effect) and rolling average BTC / USD prices.  I speculate they are inversely correlated.  Betting 1 BTC is almost like betting $100 USD, which qualify you for high limit area for certain casino if you are playing $100 a bet.

I'd also like to see this.
gog1
hero member
Activity: 756
Merit: 500
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 28, 2013, 10:59:12 AM
#1076
I would like to suggest that if we can also graph a rolling 7 day average betting volume on SD (smooth out day of the week effect) and rolling average BTC / USD prices.  I speculate they are inversely correlated.  Betting 1 BTC is almost like betting $100 USD, which qualify you for high limit area for certain casino if you are playing $100 a bet.
jborkl
sr. member
Activity: 246
Merit: 250
Team Heritage Motorsports
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 28, 2013, 10:01:56 AM
#1075
Good and bad months for a business are normal, people need to look longer term than the everyday update.

I like the updates, so good job - but you can not judge a business on a month or few weeks of data.

SD has taken huge payouts this month like a champ, plus blockchain fork and a massive price rise in BTC.
MeatPopsicle
newbie
Activity: 49
Merit: 0
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 27, 2013, 02:31:58 PM
#1074
From my limited dataset, I show that address up 727.34528992 on 1856.81 of bets.
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 27, 2013, 11:29:44 AM
#1073
Quote from: scrybe on March 27, 2013, 08:20:19 AM
Any chance you could add that value to your text report as well? (or a monthly net number after subtracting from the current profit)

Thanks again for this info, tip on the way

I was asked for that around the end of last month too I think, and have been putting off doing it ever since.  I'll get to it soon.  I'll show something about the dividend per share too.

Thanks for the tip.

Edit: current dividend for this month: zero...

Edit2: the losses that took us into a net loss for the month were mostly due to bets from one address, 1EvdzQZtdSDtcTBvcNy6qcsRQyhrKtEf91.  Here's a summary of his recent bets of 10 BTC or more:

Quote
Mar 27 09:21:28 2013 <8000  228230 0e951fcd5e65bbc9:3  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92500000
Mar 27 09:21:28 2013 <16000 228230 0e951fcd5e65bbc9:1  BET    10.00000000 LOSE    -9.95000000
Mar 27 09:21:28 2013 <24000 228230 0e951fcd5e65bbc9:0  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92500000
Mar 27 09:21:28 2013 <12000 228230 0e951fcd5e65bbc9:2  BET    20.00000000 LOSE   -19.90000000
Mar 27 09:21:28 2013 <2000  228230 0e951fcd5e65bbc9:4  BET    10.00000000 LOSE    -9.95000000
Mar 27 10:02:23 2013 <1000  228234 54cd23f489389651:1  BET    10.00000000 WIN    629.68136000
Mar 27 10:02:23 2013 <8000  228234 25eb734672a72d8c:0  BET    10.00000000 LOSE    -9.95000000
Mar 27 10:02:23 2013 <12000 228234 ff2651572f4ab823:1  BET    20.00000000 LOSE   -19.90000000
Mar 27 10:02:23 2013 <2000  228234 25eb734672a72d8c:1  BET    10.00000000 LOSE    -9.95000000
Mar 27 10:02:23 2013 <24000 228234 54cd23f489389651:0  BET    10.00000000 WIN     16.70130666
Mar 27 10:29:50 2013 <16000 228235 0385bf847ababd3d:0  BET    20.00000000 LOSE   -19.90000000
Mar 27 10:29:50 2013 <1000  228235 376ecb0c4dedaab6:1  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92500000
Mar 27 10:29:50 2013 <2000  228235 0385bf847ababd3d:1  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92500000
Mar 27 10:29:50 2013 <12000 228235 762cfadef0556334:0  BET    20.00000000 LOSE   -19.90000000
Mar 27 10:29:50 2013 <24000 228235 376ecb0c4dedaab6:0  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92500000
Mar 27 10:29:50 2013 <8000  228235 762cfadef0556334:1  BET    25.00000000 LOSE   -24.87500000
Mar 27 10:29:50 2013 <16000 228235 ff2651572f4ab823:0  BET    10.00000000 LOSE    -9.95000000
Mar 27 10:46:30 2013 <16000 228237 c91b140ee6151391:1  BET    20.00000000 LOSE   -19.90000000
Mar 27 10:46:30 2013 <2000  228237 c91b140ee6151391:4  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92500000
Mar 27 10:46:30 2013 <8000  228237 c91b140ee6151391:3  BET    15.00000000 LOSE   -14.92500000
Mar 27 10:46:30 2013 <1000  228237 c91b140ee6151391:5  BET    10.00000000 LOSE    -9.95000000
Mar 27 10:46:30 2013 <12000 228237 c91b140ee6151391:2  BET    25.00000000 LOSE   -24.87500000
Mar 27 10:46:30 2013 <24000 228237 c91b140ee6151391:0  BET    20.00000000 LOSE   -19.90000000
Mar 27 10:51:32 2013 <1000  228238 02ac4ee062bb1521:5  BET    10.00000000 LOSE    -9.95000000
Mar 27 11:13:47 2013 <2000  228239 cf2f7be04c4e5a37:4  BET    10.00000000 LOSE    -9.95000000
Mar 27 11:13:47 2013 <8000  228239 cf2f7be04c4e5a37:3  BET    10.00000000 LOSE    -9.95000000
Mar 27 11:13:47 2013 <1000  228239 cf2f7be04c4e5a37:5  BET    10.00000000 LOSE    -9.95000000
Mar 27 11:13:47 2013 <8000  228239 02ac4ee062bb1521:3  BET    10.00000000 LOSE    -9.95000000
Mar 27 11:13:47 2013 <2000  228239 02ac4ee062bb1521:4  BET    10.00000000 LOSE    -9.95000000
Mar 27 11:13:47 2013 <1000  228239 111f3717ad193291:5  BET    10.00000000 LOSE    -9.95000000
Mar 27 11:13:47 2013 <12000 228239 111f3717ad193291:2  BET    10.00000000 LOSE    -9.95000000
Mar 27 11:13:47 2013 <2000  228239 111f3717ad193291:4  BET    10.00000000 LOSE    -9.95000000
Mar 27 11:13:47 2013 <16000 228239 02ac4ee062bb1521:1  BET     5.00000000 WIN     15.01348000
Mar 27 11:13:47 2013 <12000 228239 cf2f7be04c4e5a37:2  BET    10.00000000 WIN     43.35261333
Mar 27 11:13:47 2013 <12000 228239 02ac4ee062bb1521:2  BET    10.00000000 WIN     43.35261333
Mar 27 11:13:47 2013 <8000  228239 111f3717ad193291:3  BET    10.00000000 WIN     70.00392000
Mar 27 11:26:19 2013 <2000  228240 89ffc32abfe94a2c:4  BET    10.00000000 LOSE    -9.95000000
Mar 27 11:26:19 2013 <1000  228240 89ffc32abfe94a2c:5  BET    10.00000000 LOSE    -9.95000000
Mar 27 11:26:19 2013 <2000  228240 334fd3ff342ce787:4  BET    10.00000000 LOSE    -9.95000000
Mar 27 11:26:19 2013 <12000 228240 89ffc32abfe94a2c:2  BET    10.00000000 LOSE    -9.95000000
Mar 27 11:26:19 2013 <8000  228240 89ffc32abfe94a2c:3  BET    10.00000000 LOSE    -9.95000000
Mar 27 11:26:19 2013 <12000 228240 334fd3ff342ce787:2  BET    10.00000000 LOSE    -9.95000000
Mar 27 11:26:19 2013 <1000  228240 334fd3ff342ce787:5  BET    10.00000000 LOSE    -9.95000000
Mar 27 11:26:19 2013 <8000  228240 334fd3ff342ce787:3  BET    10.00000000 LOSE    -9.95000000
Mar 27 11:26:19 2013 <16000 228240 89ffc32abfe94a2c:1  BET     5.00000000 WIN     15.01348000
Mar 27 11:47:23 2013 <1000  228242 19c895f7f99d0d73:5  BET    10.00000000 LOSE    -9.95000000
Mar 27 11:47:23 2013 <12000 228242 c810fdd77a58a02d:2  BET    10.00000000 LOSE    -9.95000000
Mar 27 11:47:23 2013 <8000  228242 c810fdd77a58a02d:3  BET    10.00000000 LOSE    -9.95000000
Mar 27 11:47:23 2013 <1000  228242 c810fdd77a58a02d:5  BET    10.00000000 LOSE    -9.95000000
Mar 27 11:47:23 2013 <12000 228242 19c895f7f99d0d73:2  BET    10.00000000 LOSE    -9.95000000
Mar 27 11:47:23 2013 <8000  228242 19c895f7f99d0d73:3  BET    10.00000000 LOSE    -9.95000000
Mar 27 11:47:23 2013 <24000 228242 19c895f7f99d0d73:0  BET    10.00000000 WIN     16.70130666
Mar 27 11:47:23 2013 <24000 228242 c810fdd77a58a02d:0  BET    10.00000000 WIN     16.70130666
Mar 27 11:47:23 2013 <2000  228242 c810fdd77a58a02d:4  BET    10.00000000 WIN    309.86568000
Mar 27 11:47:23 2013 <2000  228242 19c895f7f99d0d73:4  BET    10.00000000 WIN    309.86568000
Mar 27 12:06:26 2013 <12000 228243 81ae09866c77fb7a:2  BET    10.00000000 LOSE    -9.95000000
Mar 27 12:06:26 2013 <1000  228243 81ae09866c77fb7a:5  BET    10.00000000 LOSE    -9.95000000
Mar 27 12:06:26 2013 <2000  228243 81ae09866c77fb7a:4  BET    10.00000000 LOSE    -9.95000000
Mar 27 12:06:26 2013 <24000 228243 81ae09866c77fb7a:0  BET    10.00000000 WIN     16.70130666
Mar 27 12:06:26 2013 <8000  228243 81ae09866c77fb7a:3  BET    10.00000000 WIN     70.00392000

Quote
Total of 166 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Mar-27 09:21am (up to block 228264)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   111786 |       3 (0.00003) |  110069 |    1714 |    1338.74 |    3841.17 |   135.80 |  -2502.42 | 286.923
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     6065 |       0 (0.00000) |    5524 |     541 |     101.70 |       0.09 |    21.31 |    101.60 |   0.096
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     8497 |       1 (0.00012) |    8039 |     457 |     130.79 |     160.07 |    14.21 |    -29.28 | 122.389
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    14532 |       5 (0.00036) |   14048 |     479 |     289.01 |     432.29 |    10.09 |   -143.27 | 149.574
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    15671 |       1 (0.00007) |   15221 |     449 |     542.61 |       5.29 |    22.09 |    537.32 |   0.975
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    21831 |      10 (0.00047) |   21411 |     410 |    1261.27 |    1437.15 |     1.43 |   -175.87 | 113.944
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    24623 |      31 (0.00128) |   24108 |     484 |    1817.94 |    1460.71 |    55.86 |    357.22 |  80.350
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    20277 |      38 (0.00192) |   19774 |     465 |    2362.09 |    1562.80 |    48.41 |    799.29 |  66.162
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    25503 |     112 (0.00446) |   24994 |     397 |    5973.69 |    8651.01 |    13.23 |  -2677.32 | 144.819
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    36198 |     293 (0.00826) |   35194 |     711 |    8189.80 |    6795.78 |    10.08 |   1394.02 |  82.979
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   126593 |    1922 (0.01525) |  124125 |     546 |   39766.74 |   34806.13 |     2.14 |   4960.60 |  87.526
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    25119 |     576 (0.02326) |   24183 |     360 |    7917.45 |    8554.50 |    15.10 |   -637.04 | 108.046
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    80575 |    2487 (0.03102) |   77687 |     401 |   39731.83 |   35863.31 |     9.38 |   3868.52 |  90.263
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    29618 |    1347 (0.04619) |   27812 |     459 |    9675.23 |   10511.36 |    25.29 |   -836.13 | 108.642
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    35478 |    2171 (0.06189) |   32907 |     400 |    7678.65 |    7477.32 |    31.38 |    201.32 |  97.378
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    49043 |    4475 (0.09213) |   44098 |     470 |   16613.99 |   18285.48 |     7.39 |  -1671.48 | 110.061
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   191565 |   23450 (0.12275) |  167582 |     533 |   94590.94 |   93528.82 |   100.58 |   1062.11 |  98.877
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   100841 |   18389 (0.18338) |   81888 |     564 |  173808.98 |  175066.49 |  3315.00 |  -1257.51 | 100.724
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   260611 |   63507 (0.24423) |  196519 |     585 |  370685.58 |  356779.32 |  2322.52 |  13906.25 |  96.249
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   257630 |   94584 (0.36799) |  162445 |     601 |  586937.41 |  578958.35 |  1013.27 |   7979.06 |  98.641
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1148238 |  559485 (0.48798) |  587051 |    1702 |  895140.86 |  877375.82 |  2925.14 |  17765.03 |  98.015
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   635179 |  316786 (0.49970) |  317171 |    1222 |  672576.00 |  656947.35 |  6521.53 |  15628.64 |  97.676
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   359115 |  263435 (0.73498) |   94992 |     688 |  304937.35 |  297583.62 |  5455.48 |   7353.72 |  97.588
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    80002 |   63110 (0.79434) |   16340 |     552 |   63238.56 |   61840.55 |  1187.68 |   1398.01 |  97.789
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    70557 |   59979 (0.85754) |    9964 |     614 |   79744.85 |   78951.47 |   400.68 |    793.38 |  99.005
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   108256 |   98640 (0.91623) |    9019 |     597 |   73103.28 |   72058.33 |     0.69 |   1044.95 |  98.571
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    18288 |   16720 (0.97973) |     346 |    1222 |   24428.58 |   24014.36 |   240.37 |    414.21 |  98.304
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3743185 | 1537817           | 2188037 |   17331 |  799174.92 |  785757.92 |   277.57 |  13416.99 |  98.321
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   118506 |   53740           |   64474 |     292 | 2683409.12 | 2627191.15 | 23628.70 |  56217.96 |  97.905
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3861691 | 1591557           | 2252511 |   17623 | 3482584.04 | 3412949.07 | 23906.27 |  69634.96 |  98.000
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      69634.96507841 BTC (2.000%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3067.28197500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       66567.68310341 BTC (1.911%)
Pending Liabilities:         -144.11838175 BTC
Final SD Profit:            66711.80148516 BTC (1.916%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 12166198  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7098245  (58.3%)
Blockchain MB:   5248.7  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2923.6  (55.7%)



scrybe
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 27, 2013, 08:20:19 AM
#1072
Quote from: dooglus on March 26, 2013, 06:36:10 PM
Quote from: Jonny Heggheim on March 26, 2013, 02:34:15 PM
I liked the "end of last month" line Smiley

I received a PM asking for it to be added.

Thanks to the suggestor!

Any chance you could add that value to your text report as well? (or a monthly net number after subtracting from the current profit)

Thanks again for this info, tip on the way
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 26, 2013, 06:36:10 PM
#1071
Quote from: Jonny Heggheim on March 26, 2013, 02:34:15 PM
I liked the "end of last month" line Smiley

I received a PM asking for it to be added.
Jonny Heggheim
member
Activity: 74
Merit: 10
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 26, 2013, 02:34:15 PM
#1070
I liked the "end of last month" line Smiley
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 26, 2013, 01:17:15 PM
#1069
Quote
Total of 66 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Mar-26 11:15am (up to block 228143)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   111269 |       3 (0.00003) |  109562 |    1704 |    1326.88 |    3841.11 |   134.37 |  -2514.23 | 289.484
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     6037 |       0 (0.00000) |    5499 |     538 |     101.20 |       0.09 |    21.12 |    101.11 |   0.095
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     8409 |       1 (0.00013) |    7951 |     457 |     129.71 |     160.07 |    14.21 |    -30.35 | 123.399
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    14471 |       5 (0.00036) |   13988 |     478 |     288.22 |     432.29 |    10.09 |   -144.07 | 149.986
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    15578 |       1 (0.00007) |   15128 |     449 |     540.33 |       5.28 |    22.09 |    535.05 |   0.977
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    21785 |      10 (0.00047) |   21365 |     410 |    1259.63 |    1437.14 |     1.43 |   -177.51 | 114.092
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    24426 |      31 (0.00129) |   23912 |     483 |    1805.63 |    1460.65 |    55.86 |    344.98 |  80.894
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    20218 |      38 (0.00192) |   19715 |     465 |    2359.68 |    1562.79 |    48.41 |    796.89 |  66.229
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    25406 |     112 (0.00448) |   24899 |     395 |    5954.07 |    8650.91 |    13.22 |  -2696.83 | 145.294
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    36089 |     291 (0.00823) |   35087 |     711 |    8162.43 |    6662.92 |    10.08 |   1499.51 |  81.629
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   126091 |    1914 (0.01525) |  123632 |     545 |   39429.29 |   33838.00 |     2.14 |   5591.29 |  85.819
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    25063 |     576 (0.02332) |   24127 |     360 |    7842.74 |    8554.12 |    15.10 |   -711.37 | 109.071
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    80038 |    2469 (0.03100) |   77169 |     400 |   39379.24 |   35146.76 |     9.37 |   4232.48 |  89.252
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    29478 |    1342 (0.04624) |   27678 |     458 |    9562.89 |   10083.95 |    25.29 |   -521.06 | 105.449
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    35410 |    2168 (0.06192) |   32843 |     399 |    7674.98 |    7476.56 |    31.37 |    198.42 |  97.415
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    48892 |    4458 (0.09207) |   43964 |     470 |   16513.73 |   18226.34 |     7.39 |  -1712.61 | 110.371
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   190991 |   23375 (0.12273) |  167085 |     531 |   94044.67 |   92860.76 |   100.57 |   1183.91 |  98.741
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   100301 |   18282 (0.18330) |   81456 |     563 |  173223.52 |  174839.84 |  3315.00 |  -1616.32 | 100.933
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   259580 |   63253 (0.24422) |  195744 |     583 |  370159.98 |  356305.54 |  2322.50 |  13854.44 |  96.257
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   256955 |   94339 (0.36800) |  162015 |     601 |  586324.41 |  578306.46 |  1013.27 |   8017.95 |  98.633
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1146553 |  558663 (0.48798) |  586190 |    1700 |  894139.92 |  876508.90 |  2925.13 |  17631.02 |  98.028
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   633431 |  315945 (0.49974) |  316273 |    1213 |  671654.20 |  656035.45 |  6521.51 |  15618.74 |  97.675
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   357751 |  262431 (0.73497) |   94634 |     686 |  304703.33 |  297310.16 |  5455.46 |   7393.17 |  97.574
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    79711 |   62885 (0.79440) |   16275 |     551 |   63179.48 |   61779.87 |  1187.68 |   1399.60 |  97.785
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    70184 |   59656 (0.85747) |    9916 |     612 |   79687.69 |   78895.71 |   400.68 |    791.97 |  99.006
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   107508 |   97964 (0.91629) |    8950 |     594 |   73037.13 |   71992.57 |     0.68 |   1044.55 |  98.570
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    18192 |   16631 (0.97962) |     346 |    1215 |   24422.68 |   24008.44 |   240.36 |    414.24 |  98.304
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3731699 | 1533194           | 2181226 |   17279 |  797862.28 |  784461.46 |   275.82 |  13400.82 |  98.320
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   118118 |   53649           |   64177 |     292 | 2679045.53 | 2621921.33 | 23628.70 |  57124.19 |  97.868
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3849817 | 1586843           | 2245403 |   17571 | 3476907.82 | 3406382.80 | 23904.53 |  70525.02 |  97.972
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      70525.02187297 BTC (2.028%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3054.74777500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       67470.27409797 BTC (1.941%)
Pending Liabilities:          -64.15956938 BTC
Final SD Profit:            67534.43366735 BTC (1.942%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 12118166  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7076357  (58.4%)
Blockchain MB:   5227.3  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2914.6  (55.8%)



organofcorti
donator
Activity: 2058
Merit: 1007
Poor impulse control.
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 26, 2013, 01:02:19 AM
#1068
Quote from: romerun on March 26, 2013, 12:10:23 AM
I think it's worth to overlay daily bet volume as bars over the profit graph Roll Eyes

You can figure out daily bet volume from the "1.9% edge" line without defacing nice clean charts.
romerun
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1002
Bitcoin is new, makes sense to hodl.
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 26, 2013, 12:10:23 AM
#1067
I think it's worth to overlay daily bet volume as bars over the profit graph Roll Eyes
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 25, 2013, 01:53:58 PM
#1066
Quote from: bb113 on March 25, 2013, 01:35:20 PM
Actually I think "color-different" would be a more accurate term for it. Usually the "color blind palettes" are even worse for whatever my specific issue is. The issue was that the small lines in the legend all looked like shades of grey to me. These current colors are fine and I can tell by context anyway.

I've reordered the legend so that they're in the same order as the lines are at the right of the graph.
bb113
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 25, 2013, 01:35:20 PM
#1065
Actually I think "color-different" would be a more accurate term for it. Usually the "color blind palettes" are even worse for whatever my specific issue is. The issue was that the small lines in the legend all looked like shades of grey to me. These current colors are fine and I can tell by context anyway.
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 25, 2013, 01:21:49 PM
#1064
Still not sure about the colours...

Quote
Total of 69 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Mar-25 11:11am (up to block 227986)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   110660 |       3 (0.00003) |  108965 |    1692 |    1317.91 |    3841.07 |   133.00 |  -2523.15 | 291.451
 1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |     6016 |       0 (0.00000) |    5479 |     537 |     101.00 |       0.09 |    21.12 |    100.90 |   0.094
 1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |     8355 |       1 (0.00013) |    7898 |     456 |     128.84 |     160.06 |    13.21 |    -31.21 | 124.229
 1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    14384 |       5 (0.00036) |   13902 |     477 |     287.23 |     432.29 |    10.09 |   -145.05 | 150.502
 1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    15462 |       1 (0.00007) |   15014 |     447 |     535.62 |       5.25 |    22.08 |    530.36 |   0.982
 1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    21691 |       9 (0.00042) |   21272 |     410 |    1251.92 |    1397.13 |     1.43 |   -145.21 | 111.599
 1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    24267 |      31 (0.00130) |   23755 |     481 |    1797.49 |    1460.61 |    55.85 |    336.87 |  81.258
 1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    20124 |      38 (0.00193) |   19621 |     465 |    2356.25 |    1562.77 |    48.41 |    793.47 |  66.325
 1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    25306 |     112 (0.00450) |   24800 |     394 |    5888.00 |    8650.58 |    13.22 |  -2762.58 | 146.919
 1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    35973 |     291 (0.00825) |   34974 |     708 |    8131.03 |    6662.76 |    10.06 |   1468.26 |  81.942
 1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   125580 |    1905 (0.01524) |  123136 |     539 |   39214.96 |   33795.25 |     2.12 |   5419.71 |  86.179
 1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    25013 |     576 (0.02336) |   24077 |     360 |    7739.76 |    8553.61 |    15.10 |   -813.85 | 110.515
 1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |    79697 |    2458 (0.03100) |   76839 |     400 |   39273.18 |   35115.36 |     9.37 |   4157.82 |  89.413
 1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    29382 |    1338 (0.04625) |   27591 |     453 |    9489.14 |   10082.72 |    25.26 |   -593.58 | 106.255
 1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    35348 |    2166 (0.06198) |   32783 |     399 |    7673.16 |    7476.23 |    31.37 |    196.93 |  97.434
 1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    48700 |    4445 (0.09216) |   43787 |     468 |   16403.88 |   18164.93 |     7.39 |  -1761.05 | 110.736
 1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   190386 |   23295 (0.12270) |  166562 |     529 |   93763.24 |   92632.59 |   100.57 |   1130.64 |  98.794
 1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |    99896 |   18209 (0.18331) |   81125 |     562 |  173046.85 |  174688.55 |  3314.99 |  -1641.69 | 100.949
 1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   258191 |   62921 (0.24425) |  194690 |     580 |  369725.53 |  355755.56 |  2322.50 |  13969.96 |  96.222
 1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   256199 |   94072 (0.36804) |  161528 |     599 |  585983.47 |  577896.44 |  1013.27 |   8087.02 |  98.620
 1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1144973 |  557879 (0.48797) |  585397 |    1697 |  892807.38 |  874936.09 |  2925.12 |  17871.29 |  97.998
 1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   631406 |  314922 (0.49972) |  315279 |    1205 |  670452.93 |  654436.75 |  6521.48 |  16016.18 |  97.611
 1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   356460 |  261511 (0.73504) |   94265 |     684 |  304112.22 |  296607.89 |  5455.45 |   7504.32 |  97.532
 1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |    79420 |   62650 (0.79430) |   16224 |     546 |   63002.87 |   61622.45 |  1187.66 |   1380.41 |  97.809
 1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |    69767 |   59314 (0.85760) |    9849 |     604 |   79523.56 |   78742.42 |   400.66 |    781.13 |  99.018
 1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   106898 |   97416 (0.91634) |    8894 |     588 |   72961.71 |   71918.10 |     0.65 |   1043.61 |  98.570
 1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    18088 |   16543 (0.97969) |     343 |    1202 |   24414.35 |   24000.19 |   240.33 |    414.15 |  98.304
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  3719794 | 1528540           | 2174064 |   17190 |  796214.33 |  782939.26 |   273.20 |  13275.06 |  98.333
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   117848 |   53571           |   63985 |     292 | 2675169.25 | 2617658.59 | 23628.70 |  57510.65 |  97.850
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  3837642 | 1582111           | 2238049 |   17482 | 3471383.59 | 3400597.86 | 23901.90 |  70785.72 |  97.961
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      70785.72561804 BTC (2.039%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        3041.93197500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       67743.79364304 BTC (1.951%)
Pending Liabilities:          -70.17107813 BTC
Final SD Profit:            67813.96472117 BTC (1.954%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 12070534  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  7053685  (58.4%)
Blockchain MB:   5203.9  :  SatoshiDice MB:   2904.9  (55.8%)



chrcoe01
full member
Activity: 147
Merit: 100
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
March 25, 2013, 08:48:44 AM
#1063
Quote from: FTWbitcoinFTW on March 25, 2013, 12:45:48 AM
I'm blind, can you make it in Braille ?


Thsdansdsdsqks

ha! needed a laugh today, thanks!
Pages:
Bitcoin Forum>Economy>Marketplace>Service Discussion
Jump to: