Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 33. (Read 192889 times)

New highs!

That's cool.

I should probably mention for completeness than my data doesn't include any bets that were refunded for being too big or too small.  That's why you see nothing at all less than 0.01 BTC in 2013.

I'm wondering if it would be interesting to plot a violin plot where the thickness indicates the volume (in BTC) bet at each price rather than the number of bets at that price.  Then we'd be able to see that


for ourselves. 

No, I don't think so. In this case large number of tiny bets doesn't equal a small number of extremely large bets. The large bets might only make up a small percentage of bets, but they are the largest proportion of overall bet value.

So based on the plots, would it be a fair assessment to say that SDICE should consider lowering the minimum bid to increase revenue?

Thank you.
The violin plot is pretty cool.

Thanks!

Weekly mean and + 1 sigma
You already posted some of these and I'm including this one as a comparison to the next plots.

Here are a couple of other ways to visualise the data. Boxplots weren't very useful since a large portion of the large bets were considered "outliers".

Violin plots.
If you haven't come across a violin plot before, think of it as a vertical density plot, width being proportional to number of bets for a particular amount of btc. The advantge of this type of plot is that it also allows easy comparison of limits (compared to a density plot) and provides a more intuitive understanding of the results than traditional boxplots. The plot shows clearly that bettors prefer even amounts to bet - for example 0.01 btc, 0.02 btc, 0.05 btc, 0.1 btc, 0.2 btc etc, and that most are probably not martingaling much lately.


Percentile plots.
These are similar to the mean and sd plot, instead showing percentiles. For those not familiar, if you place the bests in order of size, the nth percentile bet is the value of the bet below which n percent of bet values fall. The 50th percentile bet is the median bet.



Are any of these good visualisation tools for most readers? If so, let me know.

Thanks for the data, dooglus. That was interesting.

Edit: These plots can be done on a much shorter timescale, such as the ones you posted earlier.

Do you have a reference for that?  I must have missed it.  I thought losing bets have always paid out half a percent.  Here's what I think it probably my biggest ever losing SD bet: http://blockchain.info/tx-index/12114983

I bet 6 BTC and got 0.03 back - that's 0.5%.

Edit: my bad - I once lost 31 BTC and got 0.155 BTC back, but still it was 0.5%.

So I guess I don't know what has changed...


Thank you very much.  

Thanks for keeping it up Dooglus, the charts and the level-headed responses. I sent a little bit your way again

Good to see that SD is break-even for the month. Hopefully, the rest of the month produces dividends.

dooglus, quick q if you would oblige...

Two days ago Erik implemented a change which returns 0.5% on a losing bet. The significant benefit of this to Bitcoin is that unspendable bitdust utxo is nearly eliminated. Only bets of <=0.06 BTC create such outputs.

For information can you advise what percentage of SD bets are 0.06 or less?
(the last two days is probably fine enough for a sampling).

Edit. Don't bother. I saw your file above and sampled that and about 54% of recent bets are 0.06 or less. Wow. Most of these are really small!
In any case, an fx rate of $200 will mean that all utxo since the change will be spendable. This is not a permanent problem then...

OK, here it is.

  http://dooglus.com/allbets.txt.bz2

It's 4.8MB compressed,  69.5 MB uncompressed, one bet per line.  Time (seconds since 1970) and bet size (in satoshis):


The timestamp is the timestamp of the block which paid the bet out.

I don't have a list of all bets but can generate it.  I'm a little busy at the moment getting ready to give back $82k that I've become kind of attached to tomorrow.  But I'll prepare the bet list when I get a chance.

Is it possible paste a list of all bets, rather than the average size per time period (I'm guessing it's per block)?

Well, if I send my money to satoshidice with a public note saying "send my winnings back to 1MyOtherSecretAddress so they don't know it's me" then that's not a very useful laundry either.

I've seen this "SDICE launders money" argument before, but I think it's bogus.  Everything they do is public, so is absolutely not laundering money.

Thanks for the stats folks
It also might be interesting to see what fraction of users are selecting to have winnings routed to another address. 
If the money goes back to the same address, it's hardly a very useful launderer.

http://dooglus.com/sd-data.txt.gz has 2 numbers per line.  Time (seconds since 1970) and average bet size in the block with that timestamp:

This is where boxplots or violin plots might be more useful. If you're not sure what I mean (and tbh I haven't exactly explained myself well) if you post the data (or pm me) I'll post some examples.

... but I do now.

This graph shows the moving average bet size (in BTC) over the previous 7 days:



I also tried using a 1-day window, but it's very spiky:



and here's the average over the previous 28 days:

I don't think anything I said assumes anything about the average bet size.

I don't have data readily available about the average bet size, but I do have the total amount bet over time.  Here's a graph showing the total bet volume over time since September last year when the price was down around $10/BTC.  Notice how the slope of the line (indicating bet volume per unit time) is about the same now as it was then.  There are a few very steep parts from when the whale was playing, but the overall volume doesn't seem to be affected by the dollar value of Bitcoins, odd as that seems.  Maybe the price goes up because more people are using it, so more people are betting, which offsets the small size per bet, but that's just a guess.

Thanks.

But this assumes that the average bet will remain in the same range.

My contention is that the average bet will keep on reducing as the BTC / USD rate keeps on increasing. The amount of total BTC bet on the first 100,000 bets will be higher than the amount of BTC made on the next 100,000. (I have not looked at the numbers and I don't know if I'm right or wrong, it just feels that way to me intuitively.)

If I'm right, then the gap between the black line and the red line won't go away as more time goes by.