Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 4.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote

Total of 40 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Jul-12 09:20am (up to block 246233)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 25373 | 22978 (0.97866) | 501 | 1894 | 26392.11 | 25952.40 | 241.48 | 439.70 | 98.334
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 191267 | 174140 (0.91549) | 16076 | 1051 | 93282.83 | 91973.42 | 2.82 | 1309.40 | 98.596
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 111830 | 95043 (0.85637) | 15941 | 846 | 92390.99 | 91453.74 | 401.50 | 937.25 | 98.986
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 119182 | 93998 (0.79387) | 24407 | 777 | 75180.04 | 73330.08 | 1188.43 | 1849.95 | 97.539
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 504612 | 369902 (0.73460) | 133638 | 1072 | 334933.69 | 326955.10 | 6173.66 | 7978.58 | 97.618
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 899759 | 448392 (0.49946) | 449357 | 2010 | 797160.48 | 775635.19 | 6524.71 | 21525.28 | 97.300
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1421229 | 692654 (0.48811) | 726398 | 2177 | 985797.84 | 966211.63 | 3003.06 | 19586.21 | 98.013
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 339294 | 124335 (0.36729) | 214188 | 771 | 604881.02 | 596056.30 | 1014.02 | 8824.72 | 98.541
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 360393 | 87762 (0.24410) | 271768 | 863 | 416065.01 | 400807.16 | 2323.68 | 15257.85 | 96.333
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 148832 | 27115 (0.18307) | 121001 | 716 | 187122.92 | 187580.89 | 3315.58 | -457.96 | 100.245
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 276528 | 33794 (0.12253) | 242014 | 720 | 146404.79 | 146742.95 | 307.33 | -338.16 | 100.231
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 70677 | 6405 (0.09140) | 63669 | 603 | 19573.41 | 20817.59 | 7.84 | -1244.18 | 106.356
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 43020 | 2647 (0.06216) | 39938 | 435 | 8263.66 | 8222.45 | 31.50 | 41.20 | 99.501
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 34486 | 1577 (0.04645) | 32375 | 534 | 11145.77 | 11919.46 | 40.52 | -773.69 | 106.942
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 121670 | 3683 (0.03039) | 117490 | 497 | 76741.87 | 73275.06 | 155.74 | 3466.81 | 95.483
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 29187 | 665 (0.02313) | 28087 | 435 | 8184.15 | 8736.30 | 15.39 | -552.15 | 106.747
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 186072 | 2830 (0.01527) | 182488 | 754 | 57648.69 | 53335.49 | 31.31 | 4313.19 | 92.518
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 43075 | 335 (0.00793) | 41923 | 817 | 8578.48 | 6992.54 | 10.41 | 1585.93 | 81.513
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 29164 | 119 (0.00414) | 28592 | 453 | 6155.00 | 8717.38 | 13.38 | -2562.38 | 141.631
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 24221 | 44 (0.00186) | 23623 | 554 | 2481.13 | 1603.40 | 57.56 | 877.73 | 64.624
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 33218 | 36 (0.00110) | 32593 | 589 | 2256.91 | 1750.74 | 117.25 | 506.16 | 77.573
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 35629 | 17 (0.00048) | 35131 | 481 | 1773.56 | 1911.45 | 1.67 | -137.88 | 107.775
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 27360 | 5 (0.00019) | 26845 | 510 | 944.17 | 606.95 | 22.27 | 337.21 | 64.284
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 27932 | 5 (0.00018) | 27358 | 569 | 659.66 | 434.15 | 15.06 | 225.50 | 65.815
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 16205 | 2 (0.00013) | 15641 | 562 | 242.08 | 320.54 | 18.68 | -78.45 | 132.409
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 14116 | 0 (0.00000) | 13500 | 616 | 199.18 | 0.58 | 31.43 | 198.59 | 0.295
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 167891 | 4 (0.00002) | 164998 | 2889 | 2193.44 | 4485.53 | 197.52 | -2292.08 | 204.497
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 5162056 | 2128138 | 3010037 | 23881 | 977648.34 | 959502.38 | 379.49 | 18145.96 | 98.144
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 140166 | 60349 | 79503 | 314 | 2989004.65 | 2926326.25 | 24884.47 | 62678.40 | 97.903
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 5302222 | 2188487 | 3089540 | 24195 | 3966653.00 | 3885828.63 | 25263.97 | 80824.37 | 97.962
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 80824.37081036 BTC (2.038%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 4578.26417500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 76246.10663536 BTC (1.922%)
Pending Liabilities: 7.71180229 BTC
Final SD Profit: 76238.39483307 BTC (1.922%)
Profit This Month: -812.05418027 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 17717121 : SatoshiDice Tx: 9741613 (55.0%)
Blockchain MB: 7804.6 : SatoshiDice MB: 4023.3 (51.6%)

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: Jonny Heggheim on July 11, 2013, 06:44:53 PM

Thanks for still giving us new reports

No problem! Thanks for the tips.

Jonny Heggheim

member

Activity: 74

Merit: 10

Thanks for still giving us new reports

RationalSpeculator

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!

Thanks for the update dooglus

Quote from: dooglus on July 11, 2013, 06:17:48 PM

Except I was deciding whether to hold BTC or SDICE. For me, holding SDICE was a horrible decision. Holding USD would have been even worse of course.

Compared to btc you are right, it was horrible indeed.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on July 11, 2013, 07:51:34 AM

Until bitcoin has become a mainstream stable currency (another few decades...) it makes good sense to continue to evaluate the performance of your investments with the most stable unit of account: fiat!

Except I was deciding whether to hold BTC or SDICE. For me, holding SDICE was a horrible decision. Holding USD would have been even worse of course.

Quote

Wed Jul 10 20:41:23 2013 <2000 245913 8dfb9b1e0cd42853:1 13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET 4.00000000 WIN 123.94627200
Thu Jul 11 06:37:16 2013 <2000 245990 e2088a488c3a3c51:3 1BD9EqV6NxTVeWFqw6Bv7P8sBX6KaDEG4f BET 11.00000000 WIN 340.85224800
Thu Jul 11 07:21:23 2013 <8000 245997 1aae126703556be5:2 1BD9EqV6NxTVeWFqw6Bv7P8sBX6KaDEG4f BET 24.00000000 WIN 168.00940800
Thu Jul 11 07:36:10 2013 <8000 246000 48b3feab876ec304:2 1BD9EqV6NxTVeWFqw6Bv7P8sBX6KaDEG4f BET 25.00000000 WIN 175.00980000
Thu Jul 11 08:10:20 2013 <8000 246003 ccc9153cda694ea4:2 1BD9EqV6NxTVeWFqw6Bv7P8sBX6KaDEG4f BET 28.00000000 WIN 196.01097600
Thu Jul 11 08:51:07 2013 <8000 246007 da7361f7d4ad4134:2 1BD9EqV6NxTVeWFqw6Bv7P8sBX6KaDEG4f BET 28.00000000 WIN 196.01097600
Thu Jul 11 09:22:47 2013 <16000 246015 14edf9a2b6f24b89:0 1BD9EqV6NxTVeWFqw6Bv7P8sBX6KaDEG4f BET 35.00000000 WIN 105.09436000
Thu Jul 11 14:04:02 2013 <16000 246041 9e33501df9c14e3b:0 1BD9EqV6NxTVeWFqw6Bv7P8sBX6KaDEG4f BET 36.00000000 WIN 108.09705600

Quote

Total of 10 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Jul-11 03:14pm (up to block 246111)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 25366 | 22972 (0.97870) | 500 | 1894 | 26391.46 | 25951.77 | 241.48 | 439.69 | 98.334
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 190688 | 173612 (0.91550) | 16025 | 1051 | 93247.03 | 91948.41 | 2.82 | 1298.61 | 98.607
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 111759 | 94978 (0.85633) | 15935 | 846 | 92380.03 | 91444.99 | 401.50 | 935.04 | 98.988
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 119054 | 93892 (0.79383) | 24385 | 777 | 75160.56 | 73309.66 | 1188.43 | 1850.90 | 97.537
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 503910 | 369368 (0.73456) | 133472 | 1070 | 334687.50 | 326693.82 | 6173.64 | 7993.67 | 97.612
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 898820 | 447947 (0.49949) | 448864 | 2009 | 796895.46 | 775477.53 | 6524.71 | 21417.93 | 97.312
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1420233 | 692198 (0.48813) | 725860 | 2175 | 985528.47 | 965949.65 | 3003.06 | 19578.82 | 98.013
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 338637 | 124087 (0.36727) | 213779 | 771 | 604764.06 | 595926.47 | 1014.02 | 8837.59 | 98.539
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 359502 | 87560 (0.24415) | 271079 | 863 | 415874.34 | 400681.68 | 2323.68 | 15192.65 | 96.347
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 148568 | 27071 (0.18310) | 120781 | 716 | 187106.46 | 187569.71 | 3315.58 | -463.24 | 100.248
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 276281 | 33764 (0.12253) | 241797 | 720 | 146384.65 | 146729.90 | 307.33 | -345.24 | 100.236
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 70587 | 6400 (0.09145) | 63585 | 602 | 19550.25 | 20795.41 | 7.84 | -1245.15 | 106.369
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 43000 | 2646 (0.06216) | 39919 | 435 | 8254.34 | 8214.41 | 31.50 | 39.92 | 99.516
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 34480 | 1577 (0.04646) | 32369 | 534 | 11145.60 | 11919.46 | 40.52 | -773.86 | 106.943
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 121558 | 3679 (0.03039) | 117382 | 497 | 76736.08 | 73273.75 | 155.74 | 3462.32 | 95.488
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 29185 | 665 (0.02313) | 28085 | 435 | 8183.14 | 8736.29 | 15.39 | -553.15 | 106.760
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 185909 | 2829 (0.01528) | 182326 | 754 | 57640.95 | 53329.06 | 31.31 | 4311.89 | 92.519
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 43067 | 335 (0.00793) | 41915 | 817 | 8574.62 | 6992.52 | 10.41 | 1582.09 | 81.549
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 29159 | 119 (0.00415) | 28588 | 452 | 6154.93 | 8717.38 | 13.38 | -2562.44 | 141.632
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 24209 | 44 (0.00186) | 23612 | 553 | 2480.24 | 1603.39 | 50.66 | 876.84 | 64.647
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 33198 | 36 (0.00110) | 32573 | 589 | 2256.65 | 1750.74 | 117.25 | 505.90 | 77.582
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 35587 | 17 (0.00048) | 35089 | 481 | 1772.14 | 1911.44 | 1.67 | -139.30 | 107.861
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 27348 | 5 (0.00019) | 26833 | 510 | 943.85 | 606.95 | 22.27 | 336.89 | 64.306
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 27924 | 5 (0.00018) | 27350 | 569 | 659.54 | 434.15 | 15.06 | 225.38 | 65.827
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 16196 | 2 (0.00013) | 15633 | 561 | 242.00 | 320.54 | 18.58 | -78.53 | 132.453
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 14106 | 0 (0.00000) | 13491 | 615 | 199.06 | 0.58 | 31.33 | 198.47 | 0.295
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 167678 | 4 (0.00002) | 164789 | 2885 | 2191.05 | 4485.52 | 197.41 | -2294.47 | 204.720
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 5155892 | 2125478 | 3006546 | 23868 | 976827.98 | 958719.21 | 379.15 | 18108.77 | 98.146
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 140117 | 60334 | 79470 | 313 | 2988576.59 | 2926056.10 | 24877.57 | 62520.49 | 97.908
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 5296009 | 2185812 | 3086016 | 24181 | 3965404.58 | 3884775.32 | 25256.72 | 80629.26 | 97.967
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 80629.26253031 BTC (2.033%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 4571.79017500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 76057.47235531 BTC (1.918%)
Pending Liabilities: -5.52077556 BTC
Final SD Profit: 76062.99313087 BTC (1.918%)
Profit This Month: -987.45588247 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 17680941 : SatoshiDice Tx: 9730080 (55.0%)
Blockchain MB: 7787.9 : SatoshiDice MB: 4018.6 (51.6%)

RationalSpeculator

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!

Quote from: FTWbitcoinFTW on July 11, 2013, 07:28:33 AM

Since your investissement is in bitcoin, forget about dollard when you do the math !

if you put 10btc you should get back 10 btc, or it's a fails, period.

Only if one COMPARES an investment in bitcoin with an investment in SDICE does btc value of an investment matters.

To evaluate an investment in SDICE an sich, USD value matters as btc value has little meaning. Bitcoins are not useful yet as a unit of account because it is not stable. Sometimes btc is worth a lot, sometimes it's worth much less. Saying something was worth x btc and now it's only worth y btc, does not tell the whole picture if in the meantime btc tenfolded in value!

Until bitcoin has become a mainstream stable currency (another few decades...) it makes good sense to continue to evaluate the performance of your investments with the most stable unit of account: fiat!

FTWbitcoinFTW

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

Since your investissement is in bitcoin, forget about dollard when you do the math !

if you put 10btc you should get back 10 btc, or it's a fails, period.

RationalSpeculator

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!

Quote from: dooglus on July 10, 2013, 03:12:52 PM

This one's for RationalSpeculator.

Thanks for caring about my loss, people, but I've already made it back on my Just-Dice investment.

Thanks so much dooglus!

Quote from: jonitas on July 10, 2013, 06:17:29 PM

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on July 10, 2013, 01:39:07 PM

Yes it was a horrible run since February. In USD SDICE lost -40%, dividends included! It's rightful to feel bad about that.

That's not correct. If we take Dooglus for example:

He invested BTC79.9924*$21.5 (median price that day) = $1719.84

And he cashed out BTC28.3309509*$75.41 = $2136.43

For a USD profit of 24%. In BTC terms it looks very bad of course, but the key when investing in anything is always to diversify. Even though he lost in BTC terms I wouldnt say it was a bad decision to put money in sdice.

I am keeping my SDICE shares and have put some money in just-dice as well. I think the competition will do SatoshiDice good.

Thanks for correcting me. You are right that in dooglus his case he has a USD profit of +24%. Very respectable in my book indeed.

However those that bought in March and April when SDICE was valued around $30 and up to $40 million do have a considerable USD loss since the company is valued around $17 million today. A loss of around -50%!

solex

legendary

Activity: 1078

Merit: 1006

100 satoshis -> ISO code

dooglus, have you seen that Bitcoin transaction volumes (to all addresses) have declined to Dec/Jan levels?
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions?showDataPoints=false×pan=&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=

Is there a noticeable decline in S.Dice trades avg.no/day?

I note that there is a long-term increase still in train for non-popular addresses...
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?showDataPoints=false×pan=&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: jonitas on July 10, 2013, 06:17:29 PM

He invested BTC79.9924*$21.5 (median price that day) = $1719.84

And he cashed out BTC28.3309509*$75.41 = $2136.43

For a USD profit of 24%. In BTC terms it looks very bad of course, but the key when investing in anything is always to diversify. Even though he lost in BTC terms I wouldnt say it was a bad decision to put money in sdice.

I absolutely would. If I hadn't put the money in sdice, I would have left it in my bitcoin wallet.

Any investment that does worse than a paper wallet (the bitcoin equivalent of burying your money in the sand) is a bad decision in my book.

Dabs

legendary

Activity: 3416

Merit: 1912

The Concierge of Crypto

Quote from: jonitas on July 10, 2013, 06:17:29 PM

He invested BTC79.9924*$21.5 (median price that day) = $1719.84
And he cashed out BTC28.3309509*$75.41 = $2136.43

He'd be better off putting those 79.9924 BTC into cold storage and just selling it today without having it go through S.DICE. Then he'd have $6,997 now instead of $2136.43.

thoughtfan

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 506

Quote from: jonitas on July 10, 2013, 06:17:29 PM

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on July 10, 2013, 01:39:07 PM

Yes it was a horrible run since February. In USD SDICE lost -40%, dividends included! It's rightful to feel bad about that.

That's not correct. If we take Dooglus for example:

No, it is incorrect to say it is 'not correct' because of not taking the exchange rate into the equation. Of course you are welcome to include that in your own assessment of yours or anybody else's investment but it is perfectly reasonable to make the assessment of an investment on the basis of the currency in which it was invested alone. Would you think me 'not correct' in saying I'd made a good profit from stocks I bought in euros even if the profit was more than wiped out from a pound perspective by the exchange rate having changed?

jonitas

newbie

Activity: 57

Merit: 0

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on July 10, 2013, 01:39:07 PM

Yes it was a horrible run since February. In USD SDICE lost -40%, dividends included! It's rightful to feel bad about that.

That's not correct. If we take Dooglus for example:

He invested BTC79.9924*$21.5 (median price that day) = $1719.84

And he cashed out BTC28.3309509*$75.41 = $2136.43

For a USD profit of 24%. In BTC terms it looks very bad of course, but the key when investing in anything is always to diversify. Even though he lost in BTC terms I wouldnt say it was a bad decision to put money in sdice.

I am keeping my SDICE shares and have put some money in just-dice as well. I think the competition will do SatoshiDice good.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

This one's for RationalSpeculator.

Thanks for caring about my loss, people, but I've already made it back on my Just-Dice investment.

Quote

Tue Jul 9 20:56:19 2013 <8000 245735 e6342e8362075275:1 13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET 21.00000000 WIN 147.00823200
Tue Jul 9 21:13:36 2013 <8000 245737 bfde621a00fd01bd:1 13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET 28.00000000 WIN 196.01097600
Tue Jul 9 21:13:36 2013 <1000 245737 b59fe42ec9fecc95:1 13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET 4.00000000 WIN 251.87254400
Tue Jul 9 21:24:50 2013 <2000 245739 f6396287b120762a:2 13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET 9.00000000 WIN 278.87911200
Tue Jul 9 21:24:50 2013 <8000 245739 7446e85778c3f4a3:1 13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET 23.00000000 WIN 161.00901600
Tue Jul 9 22:23:50 2013 <8000 245743 69a314e796c2e6f6:1 13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET 28.00000000 WIN 196.01097600
Tue Jul 9 23:01:30 2013 <2000 245746 bb71c5094eaad4f1:0 13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET 7.00000000 WIN 216.90597600
Tue Jul 9 23:01:30 2013 <8000 245746 c4d798b84c8240f9:1 13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET 16.00000000 WIN 112.00627200
Tue Jul 9 23:59:35 2013 <2000 245754 15bc42959d0817a1:0 1LktGPFJviEab7CHNQ3xxGAvXQ9psdcvau BET 9.00000000 WIN 278.87911200
Wed Jul 10 00:04:49 2013 <8000 245755 be38a9e0db6e5bd8:0 19jbJsmGWRaFycbp6tRtkR4VVsErBq4Wis BET 17.00000000 WIN 119.00666400
Wed Jul 10 00:09:12 2013 <8000 245756 2acb42cf3ef865d1:1 13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET 22.00000000 WIN 154.00862400
Wed Jul 10 00:28:12 2013 <6000 245762 0ba20a2fa23def0e:1 16U6mo1kPQuqrSaHjijDFNnnbfEfCGdmeZ BET 20.00000000 WIN 193.31045333
Wed Jul 10 00:40:12 2013 <8000 245764 04695da25d6bc54b:1 13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET 18.00000000 WIN 126.00705600
Wed Jul 10 02:00:59 2013 <8000 245773 2caf91f7826e95cc:1 13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET 17.00000000 WIN 119.00666400
Wed Jul 10 02:00:59 2013 <8000 245773 5e64ef3314f77dfd:2 16U6mo1kPQuqrSaHjijDFNnnbfEfCGdmeZ BET 22.00000000 WIN 154.00862400
Wed Jul 10 02:00:59 2013 <2000 245773 96b65619be9cdda5:1 13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET 10.00000000 WIN 309.86568000
Wed Jul 10 02:28:16 2013 <2000 245777 deab9f1e5c300d90:2 16U6mo1kPQuqrSaHjijDFNnnbfEfCGdmeZ BET 11.00000000 WIN 340.85224800
Wed Jul 10 02:50:18 2013 <8000 245780 8d9d937ea60fc261:1 13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET 15.00000000 WIN 105.00588000
Wed Jul 10 02:58:18 2013 <8000 245781 98da13c515556955:1 1D1q5o7FZn3kCbFNEBymE5wswbyoVeu9Bs BET 21.00000000 WIN 147.00823200
Wed Jul 10 02:58:18 2013 <2000 245781 040c83606dd1f777:2 13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET 9.00000000 WIN 278.87911200
Wed Jul 10 04:16:48 2013 <8000 245788 1200dbe15a7790e2:1 13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET 15.00000000 WIN 105.00588000
Wed Jul 10 04:44:20 2013 <8000 245793 3cb824b383b675c1:3 1Hf6PQQPRe9KH3KpAPEtLjAFJKbJFsKPRB BET 20.00000000 WIN 140.00784000
Wed Jul 10 04:55:31 2013 <8000 245795 bd333c81eee4171a:0 13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET 25.00000000 WIN 175.00980000
Wed Jul 10 05:11:25 2013 <6000 245797 5a823ebc722ea4e6:4 13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET 16.00000000 WIN 154.64836266
Wed Jul 10 05:23:36 2013 <16000 245799 89492f0f39f0e052:0 13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET 36.00000000 WIN 108.09705600
Wed Jul 10 05:33:35 2013 <8000 245800 a09cb6ab623626e3:0 13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET 24.00000000 WIN 168.00940800
Wed Jul 10 05:55:49 2013 <8000 245801 cb1281e501f09aab:4 1Hf6PQQPRe9KH3KpAPEtLjAFJKbJFsKPRB BET 20.00000000 WIN 140.00784000
Wed Jul 10 06:01:02 2013 <8000 245803 f0d89f365c176049:3 1DQ7yxexeDo7QVkoXPbf6gKmcpchbdEb3V BET 18.00000000 WIN 126.00705600
Wed Jul 10 06:07:00 2013 <8000 245805 b7c669b7681e6f9b:1 13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET 16.00000000 WIN 112.00627200
Wed Jul 10 06:47:00 2013 <8000 245809 3a9544d63aea68e4:1 1Hf6PQQPRe9KH3KpAPEtLjAFJKbJFsKPRB BET 29.00000000 WIN 203.01136800
Wed Jul 10 06:57:17 2013 <8000 245812 81a5a6356ab0246c:2 13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET 15.00000000 WIN 105.00588000
Wed Jul 10 07:13:59 2013 <2000 245814 b64fc42eea34f40e:0 13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET 7.00000000 WIN 216.90597600
Wed Jul 10 07:38:23 2013 <1000 245819 ff8ccfba5921ce9f:3 13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET 2.00000000 WIN 125.93627200
Wed Jul 10 08:47:33 2013 <8000 245823 55c5a0a9ff8a4ef7:4 14kmeURcEiLvniuubqKmquNXBNoRPDgdZs BET 15.00000000 WIN 105.00588000
Wed Jul 10 09:21:26 2013 <8000 245828 530d129b70d7cbf4:2 1143iB2H3rBA8qMxxGhvwQ44rJkGVssrtz BET 24.00000000 WIN 168.00940800
Wed Jul 10 09:43:13 2013 <2000 245829 ae4127dbdd415017:0 1NGgTsQVUTNnk7gZojxkpNS8YmP8TJd3Zk BET 9.00000000 WIN 278.87911200
Wed Jul 10 10:31:36 2013 <8000 245835 757598bc94de58ea:0 13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET 25.00000000 WIN 175.00980000
Wed Jul 10 10:37:00 2013 <8000 245837 f1b08b3878efd43f:1 13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET 25.00000000 WIN 175.00980000
Wed Jul 10 11:18:42 2013 <8000 245842 c75d2eb4fc740dca:0 13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET 26.00000000 WIN 182.01019200
Wed Jul 10 13:05:09 2013 <2000 245854 e31ae915fd6fd585:2 13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET 7.00000000 WIN 216.90597600
Wed Jul 10 15:18:26 2013 <3000 245869 e955eb565d4d7731:2 16M1rdbw3xQhDZB4nhdAtJn4p24MmapGwM BET 9.00000000 WIN 182.93440800
Wed Jul 10 16:06:46 2013 <8000 245875 f9c1cea2abaee026:3 1EJjoW7Mr8B9oHvhbKWaHji34rj8vnEYQd BET 16.00000000 WIN 112.00627200
Wed Jul 10 16:50:41 2013 <6000 245880 6de5b8f30f311493:3 18vXpUJMYCFaghKHHCJtGcfa32jqyj7Wy8 BET 12.00000000 WIN 115.98627200
Wed Jul 10 17:46:09 2013 <8000 245885 7bfda0a44b195df7:4 18vXpUJMYCFaghKHHCJtGcfa32jqyj7Wy8 BET 30.00000000 WIN 210.01176000
Wed Jul 10 18:36:21 2013 <8000 245893 e0927954df7c4ca4:2 13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET 25.00000000 WIN 175.00980000
Wed Jul 10 18:36:21 2013 <2000 245893 96823dd68ff3db36:1 19gD4M8xzQA2yVV7M2k8ZR9TqoxkxaWLVn BET 9.00000000 WIN 278.87911200
Wed Jul 10 18:42:26 2013 <8000 245895 67da1a05446348f1:2 13BbsXMvGbCfRwb1XJa8n1JLKMDGBxMJJa BET 25.00000000 WIN 175.00980000

Quote

Total of 68 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Jul-10 12:10pm (up to block 245898)

Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 25354 | 22960 (0.97869) | 500 | 1894 | 26383.05 | 25943.32 | 241.48 | 439.72 | 98.333
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 190165 | 173138 (0.91552) | 15976 | 1051 | 93192.53 | 91896.53 | 2.82 | 1296.00 | 98.609
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 111622 | 94860 (0.85632) | 15916 | 846 | 92312.25 | 91375.58 | 401.50 | 936.67 | 98.985
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 118980 | 93832 (0.79382) | 24371 | 777 | 75147.05 | 73294.09 | 1188.43 | 1852.96 | 97.534
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 502948 | 368650 (0.73454) | 133228 | 1070 | 334380.42 | 326340.64 | 6173.64 | 8039.78 | 97.596
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 898000 | 447527 (0.49948) | 448467 | 2006 | 796777.59 | 775355.14 | 6524.69 | 21422.44 | 97.311
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 1418864 | 691515 (0.48812) | 725174 | 2175 | 984978.13 | 965430.50 | 3003.06 | 19547.63 | 98.015
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 337898 | 123802 (0.36723) | 213325 | 771 | 604681.91 | 595854.13 | 1014.02 | 8827.78 | 98.540
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 358554 | 87330 (0.24415) | 270363 | 861 | 414692.64 | 399384.08 | 2323.67 | 15308.55 | 96.308
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 148264 | 27024 (0.18315) | 120524 | 716 | 186493.57 | 187273.24 | 3315.58 | -779.67 | 100.418
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 275872 | 33729 (0.12258) | 241425 | 718 | 145103.56 | 145503.73 | 307.33 | -400.17 | 100.276
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 70486 | 6394 (0.09149) | 63491 | 601 | 19432.68 | 20602.58 | 7.84 | -1169.90 | 106.020
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 42987 | 2645 (0.06216) | 39907 | 435 | 8254.02 | 8214.22 | 31.50 | 39.80 | 99.518
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 34461 | 1576 (0.04645) | 32351 | 534 | 11138.17 | 11919.21 | 40.52 | -781.03 | 107.012
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 121347 | 3672 (0.03038) | 117178 | 497 | 76000.81 | 72787.15 | 155.74 | 3213.65 | 95.772
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 29158 | 665 (0.02315) | 28059 | 434 | 8182.71 | 8736.29 | 15.38 | -553.58 | 106.765
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 185754 | 2826 (0.01528) | 182174 | 754 | 57605.83 | 53323.77 | 31.31 | 4282.06 | 92.567
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 43052 | 335 (0.00793) | 41900 | 817 | 8574.43 | 6992.52 | 10.41 | 1581.91 | 81.551
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 29150 | 119 (0.00415) | 28579 | 452 | 6154.82 | 8717.38 | 13.38 | -2562.55 | 141.635
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 24173 | 44 (0.00186) | 23576 | 553 | 2479.82 | 1603.39 | 50.66 | 876.43 | 64.658
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 33174 | 36 (0.00110) | 32549 | 589 | 2256.24 | 1750.74 | 117.25 | 505.49 | 77.596
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 35518 | 17 (0.00049) | 35020 | 481 | 1771.40 | 1911.44 | 1.67 | -140.04 | 107.906
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 27334 | 5 (0.00019) | 26819 | 510 | 943.66 | 606.95 | 22.27 | 336.71 | 64.319
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 27917 | 5 (0.00018) | 27343 | 569 | 659.47 | 434.15 | 15.06 | 225.31 | 65.834
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 16153 | 2 (0.00013) | 15590 | 561 | 241.44 | 320.54 | 18.58 | -79.09 | 132.758
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 14090 | 0 (0.00000) | 13477 | 613 | 198.81 | 0.58 | 31.25 | 198.23 | 0.295
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 167332 | 4 (0.00002) | 164461 | 2867 | 2187.51 | 4485.50 | 196.93 | -2297.98 | 205.050
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
small (bets < 4 BTC) | 5148830 | 2122440 | 3002551 | 23839 | 975781.75 | 957701.36 | 378.55 | 18080.38 | 98.147
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 139777 | 60272 | 79192 | 313 | 2984442.92 | 2922356.14 | 24877.57 | 62086.78 | 97.920
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 5288607 | 2182712 | 3081743 | 24152 | 3960224.67 | 3880057.51 | 25256.13 | 80167.16 | 97.976
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees: 80167.16356698 BTC (2.024%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 4564.00557500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 75603.15799198 BTC (1.909%)
Pending Liabilities: 0.00000000 BTC
Final SD Profit: 75603.15799198 BTC (1.909%)
Profit This Month: -1447.29102136 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 17632749 : SatoshiDice Tx: 9716710 (55.1%)
Blockchain MB: 7766.6 : SatoshiDice MB: 4013.0 (51.7%)

RationalSpeculator

sr. member

Activity: 294

Merit: 250

This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!

Quote from: dooglus on July 10, 2013, 01:31:14 AM

Quote from: GeoRW on July 10, 2013, 12:27:28 AM

How come you made 70% percent loss on S.DICE. Did you not buy at IPO prices? I have like 80% percent back on dividends + I did some day trading with S.DICE shares, but if you bought at IPO you should have like 50% back on dividends (I'm too lazy to search for exact numbers though, so anyone correct me, if I'm wrong).

I don't know. I put 80 BTC onto bitfunder and got 28.3309509 BTC back (including dividends). Turns out it's only a 64.6% loss.

Here's how the magic happened, using my patented "buy high, sell low" technique:

I'm sorry for your loss Sad

Yes it was a horrible run since February. In USD SDICE lost -40%, dividends included! It's rightful to feel bad about that.

wtfvanity

hero member

Activity: 504

Merit: 500

WTF???

Quote from: dooglus on July 10, 2013, 01:31:14 AM

Quote from: GeoRW on July 10, 2013, 12:27:28 AM

How come you made 70% percent loss on S.DICE. Did you not buy at IPO prices? I have like 80% percent back on dividends + I did some day trading with S.DICE shares, but if you bought at IPO you should have like 50% back on dividends (I'm too lazy to search for exact numbers though, so anyone correct me, if I'm wrong).

I don't know. I put 80 BTC onto bitfunder and got 28.3309509 BTC back (including dividends). Turns out it's only a 64.6% loss.

Here's how the magic happened, using my patented "buy high, sell low" technique:

Ouch, my numbers weren't as big, but had a similar scenario on bitfunder. I bought in around the same price, but I dumped mine about .0035 so it didn't hurt quite as bad, and I only lost about 3 BTC. Sorry dooglus. Hope just-dice is making it back for you.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: Korbman on July 09, 2013, 08:53:13 PM

Quote from: dooglus on July 09, 2013, 08:12:58 PM

[...] I got a new laptop today with more RAM and a faster processor, so hopefully it won't be too painful to generate them in the future.

Ha, I like how your solution to upgrading a laptop's RAM and processor is to buy a new laptop altogether Tongue

The last one turned out to be a lemon. It crashes randomly if I look at it wrongly. I think there must be a hardware fault with it. I'll return it for repair, but can't be without a laptop while that's happening. So I figured I should get another one. Always good to have a spare, right? Also, the AMD graphics on it aren't really supported by the OS I run, it crashes about 10% of the time when I try to resume from suspend. All in all I regret buying it, but left it too long to return it.

The old one is now permanently offline, acting as Just-Dice cold storage, so that's not an option.

dooglus

legendary

Activity: 2940

Merit: 1333

Quote from: GeoRW on July 10, 2013, 12:27:28 AM

How come you made 70% percent loss on S.DICE. Did you not buy at IPO prices? I have like 80% percent back on dividends + I did some day trading with S.DICE shares, but if you bought at IPO you should have like 50% back on dividends (I'm too lazy to search for exact numbers though, so anyone correct me, if I'm wrong).

I don't know. I put 80 BTC onto bitfunder and got 28.3309509 BTC back (including dividends). Turns out it's only a 64.6% loss.

Here's how the magic happened, using my patented "buy high, sell low" technique:

GeoRW

sr. member

Activity: 350

Merit: 257

Trust No One

How come you made 70% percent loss on S.DICE. Did you not buy at IPO prices? I have like 80% percent back on dividends + I did some day trading with S.DICE shares, but if you bought at IPO you should have like 50% back on dividends (I'm too lazy to search for exact numbers though, so anyone correct me, if I'm wrong).

Korbman

legendary

Activity: 1064

Merit: 1001

Quote from: dooglus on July 09, 2013, 08:12:58 PM

[...] I got a new laptop today with more RAM and a faster processor, so hopefully it won't be too painful to generate them in the future.

Ha, I like how your solution to upgrading a laptop's RAM and processor is to buy a new laptop altogether Tongue

Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 4. (Read 192889 times)