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Topic: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis - page 9. (Read 192896 times)

dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
June 06, 2013, 01:55:05 PM
#1451
Quote
Total of 93 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Jun-06 11:51am (up to block 240114)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    24676 |   22318 (0.97865) |     487 |    1871 |   25763.59 |   25322.54 |   241.39 |    441.04 |  98.288
1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   165178 |  150314 (0.91573) |   13832 |    1032 |   82812.28 |   81564.77 |     2.73 |   1247.51 |  98.494
1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |   103729 |   88128 (0.85643) |   14774 |     827 |   89395.83 |   88561.24 |   401.44 |    834.58 |  99.066
1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |   109537 |   86374 (0.79399) |   22411 |     752 |   71783.69 |   69996.95 |  1188.35 |   1786.74 |  97.511
1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   467922 |  343059 (0.73480) |  123817 |    1046 |  324811.88 |  316872.65 |  6173.56 |   7939.23 |  97.556
1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   833284 |  415393 (0.49965) |  415973 |    1918 |  771235.21 |  751488.88 |  6524.33 |  19746.32 |  97.440
1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1345251 |  655481 (0.48802) |  687657 |    2113 |  952831.90 |  932535.33 |  2926.81 |  20296.56 |  97.870
1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   317602 |  116306 (0.36705) |  200558 |     738 |  601696.54 |  592964.67 |  1013.90 |   8731.87 |  98.549
1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   334194 |   81385 (0.24413) |  251988 |     821 |  396393.29 |  381104.59 |  2323.52 |  15288.70 |  96.143
1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   138295 |   25257 (0.18356) |  112342 |     696 |  184611.80 |  185640.35 |  3315.50 |  -1028.55 | 100.557
1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   254072 |   31063 (0.12258) |  222345 |     664 |  122451.16 |  121558.67 |   101.19 |    892.48 |  99.271
1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    66351 |    6010 (0.09136) |   59771 |     570 |   18098.91 |   19691.96 |     7.72 |  -1593.04 | 108.802
1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    41268 |    2530 (0.06195) |   38310 |     428 |    8095.21 |    8009.55 |    31.48 |     85.66 |  98.942
1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    33628 |    1539 (0.04648) |   31572 |     517 |   10241.26 |   11250.64 |    25.49 |  -1009.38 | 109.856
1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |   111706 |    3392 (0.03050) |  107834 |     480 |   60979.19 |   57756.08 |     9.71 |   3223.10 |  94.714
1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    28394 |     656 (0.02344) |   27332 |     406 |    8143.38 |    8731.64 |    15.24 |   -588.25 | 107.224
1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   171685 |    2643 (0.01546) |  168327 |     715 |   52454.26 |   49411.46 |     2.80 |   3042.80 |  94.199
1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    42216 |     333 (0.00804) |   41079 |     804 |    8548.88 |    6989.89 |    10.38 |   1558.98 |  81.764
1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    28340 |     118 (0.00423) |   27781 |     441 |    6136.01 |    8667.31 |    13.34 |  -2531.29 | 141.253
1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    23585 |      43 (0.00187) |   23004 |     538 |    2465.42 |    1598.32 |    48.60 |    867.09 |  64.830
1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    31906 |      35 (0.00112) |   31309 |     562 |    2220.74 |    1740.57 |   117.15 |    480.17 |  78.378
1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    31600 |      14 (0.00045) |   31123 |     463 |    1692.88 |    1851.07 |     1.62 |   -158.19 | 109.345
1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    25539 |       5 (0.00020) |   25032 |     502 |     896.71 |     606.72 |    22.24 |    289.99 |  67.660
1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    26198 |       5 (0.00020) |   25633 |     560 |     626.01 |     433.98 |    14.67 |    192.02 |  69.325
1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    15760 |       2 (0.00013) |   15208 |     550 |     235.15 |     320.51 |    18.54 |    -85.35 | 136.300
1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    13683 |       0 (0.00000) |   13082 |     601 |     191.43 |       0.54 |    30.50 |    190.88 |   0.287
1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   155851 |       3 (0.00002) |  153157 |    2691 |    2018.28 |    3844.62 |   184.23 |  -1826.33 | 190.489
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4809043 | 1974142           | 2811889 |   23012 |  922697.87 |  905771.39 |   360.34 |  16926.48 |  98.166
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   132407 |   58264           |   73849 |     294 | 2884133.16 | 2822744.23 | 24406.21 |  61388.92 |  97.871
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4941450 | 2032406           | 2885738 |   23306 | 3806831.03 | 3728515.62 | 24766.55 |  78315.40 |  97.943
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      78315.40984378 BTC (2.057%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        4199.80077500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       74115.60906878 BTC (1.947%)
Pending Liabilities:            1.78543058 BTC
Final SD Profit:            74113.82363820 BTC (1.947%)
Profit This Month:           2651.94221964 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 16179890  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  9081097  (56.1%)
Blockchain MB:   7126.6  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3746.6  (52.6%)



freedomno1
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1090
Learning the troll avoidance button :)
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
June 05, 2013, 10:50:14 PM
#1450
Why I watch it Smiley
That and I enjoy Dooglus and his numbers charts and stats
Bugpowder
sr. member
Activity: 394
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
June 05, 2013, 10:09:32 PM
#1449
Quote from: Carnth on June 05, 2013, 05:29:13 PM
Quote from: romerun on June 04, 2013, 05:08:54 PM
Something tells me that this month is a good sdice month.

The month ain't over yet.


Quote from: BTCdude007 on June 05, 2013, 01:30:23 AM
I am flabbergasted that someone can bet $42K on a single roll of the satoshi dice!

Yep, there are some people that have that kind of coin. Even in real casinos people bet this much per hand of blackjack and more. Win or lose, I find it fascinating to watch people bet this much.



Quote from: dooglus on June 05, 2013, 02:56:06 PM
New laptop arrived, how exciting!  I get to spend days getting it set up just the way I like it!  Smiley

Enjoy!

Money Mayweather bet $5.9 million on Miami Heat -7 over Indiana in game 7.

This level of betting is still small potatoes relative to the past, but does look pretty good so far...  At any moment S.DICE has the potential to have an explosive month of revenue.  I bought BTC after many people gave up on it, around $2, because it had the potential to go back to $33.  Well, apply the same logic to S.DICE...
Carnth
hero member
Activity: 634
Merit: 500
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
June 05, 2013, 05:29:13 PM
#1448
Quote from: romerun on June 04, 2013, 05:08:54 PM
Something tells me that this month is a good sdice month.

The month ain't over yet.


Quote from: BTCdude007 on June 05, 2013, 01:30:23 AM
I am flabbergasted that someone can bet $42K on a single roll of the satoshi dice!

Yep, there are some people that have that kind of coin. Even in real casinos people bet this much per hand of blackjack and more. Win or lose, I find it fascinating to watch people bet this much.



Quote from: dooglus on June 05, 2013, 02:56:06 PM
New laptop arrived, how exciting!  I get to spend days getting it set up just the way I like it!  Smiley

Enjoy!
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
June 05, 2013, 02:56:06 PM
#1447
New laptop arrived, how exciting!  I get to spend days getting it set up just the way I like it!  Smiley

Quote
Wed Jun  5 12:36:22 2013 <32768 239888 6026db76c3104ec1:0  16QXn4tiW8oTwsPLuL8iktfKMM131NLZU2 BET   100.00000000 WIN     95.70000000
Wed Jun  5 14:25:18 2013 <2000  239904 ed36c33dc0c5855a:1  1MnUw7R9Rj7RqTaZqL9RQSAcpdEqixRrLw BET     5.00000000 WIN    154.93284000

Quote
Total of 105 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Jun-05 12:48pm (up to block 239942)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    24658 |   22301 (0.97863) |     487 |    1870 |   25762.52 |   25321.46 |   241.38 |    441.05 |  98.288
1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   164262 |  149479 (0.91575) |   13753 |    1030 |   82738.69 |   81496.18 |     2.71 |   1242.50 |  98.498
1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |   103337 |   87796 (0.85645) |   14715 |     826 |   89351.19 |   88514.70 |   401.44 |    836.49 |  99.064
1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |   109211 |   86122 (0.79405) |   22337 |     752 |   71669.74 |   69884.97 |  1188.35 |   1784.77 |  97.510
1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   466742 |  342161 (0.73473) |  123538 |    1043 |  324492.54 |  316620.79 |  6173.56 |   7871.74 |  97.574
1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   830853 |  414223 (0.49970) |  414715 |    1915 |  770164.68 |  750151.59 |  6524.32 |  20013.08 |  97.401
1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1343079 |  654418 (0.48802) |  686551 |    2110 |  952215.35 |  932152.54 |  2926.80 |  20062.81 |  97.893
1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   316742 |  115980 (0.36702) |  200024 |     738 |  601644.58 |  592912.13 |  1013.90 |   8732.45 |  98.549
1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   333685 |   81266 (0.24414) |  251601 |     818 |  396305.31 |  380969.58 |  2323.50 |  15335.72 |  96.130
1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   138023 |   25205 (0.18354) |  112122 |     696 |  184597.50 |  185617.76 |  3315.50 |  -1020.25 | 100.553
1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   250947 |   30698 (0.12265) |  219586 |     663 |  122283.59 |  121344.07 |   101.19 |    939.51 |  99.232
1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    66290 |    6006 (0.09139) |   59714 |     570 |   18097.99 |   19691.53 |     7.72 |  -1593.53 | 108.805
1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    41248 |    2528 (0.06193) |   38292 |     428 |    8094.17 |    8009.02 |    31.48 |     85.15 |  98.948
1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    33610 |    1536 (0.04641) |   31557 |     517 |   10240.82 |   11249.31 |    25.49 |  -1008.48 | 109.848
1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |   111180 |    3375 (0.03049) |  107326 |     479 |   60888.78 |   57728.45 |     9.70 |   3160.33 |  94.810
1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    28382 |     656 (0.02345) |   27320 |     406 |    8143.16 |    8731.64 |    15.24 |   -588.47 | 107.227
1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   170837 |    2635 (0.01549) |  167487 |     715 |   52306.12 |   49339.40 |     2.80 |   2966.72 |  94.328
1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    42186 |     332 (0.00802) |   41050 |     804 |    8545.04 |    6983.62 |    10.38 |   1561.41 |  81.727
1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    28308 |     118 (0.00423) |   27749 |     441 |    6135.66 |    8667.31 |    13.34 |  -2531.64 | 141.261
1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    23569 |      43 (0.00187) |   22988 |     538 |    2464.04 |    1598.31 |    48.60 |    865.72 |  64.866
1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    31892 |      35 (0.00112) |   31295 |     562 |    2220.01 |    1740.56 |   117.15 |    479.44 |  78.403
1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    31549 |      14 (0.00045) |   31072 |     463 |    1692.36 |    1851.07 |     1.62 |   -158.70 | 109.378
1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    25528 |       5 (0.00020) |   25021 |     502 |     896.59 |     606.71 |    22.24 |    289.87 |  67.670
1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    26152 |       5 (0.00020) |   25588 |     559 |     625.02 |     433.98 |    14.67 |    191.04 |  69.434
1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    15747 |       2 (0.00013) |   15195 |     550 |     235.01 |     320.51 |    18.54 |    -85.49 | 136.380
1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    13654 |       0 (0.00000) |   13053 |     601 |     191.00 |       0.54 |    30.50 |    190.46 |   0.286
1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   155443 |       3 (0.00002) |  152749 |    2691 |    2011.91 |    3844.58 |   184.23 |  -1832.67 | 191.091
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4794790 | 1968714           | 2803083 |   22993 |  920953.12 |  904146.43 |   360.25 |  16806.68 |  98.175
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   132324 |   58228           |   73802 |     294 | 2883060.37 | 2821636.02 | 24406.21 |  61424.35 |  97.869
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4927114 | 2026942           | 2876885 |   23287 | 3804013.50 | 3725782.45 | 24766.47 |  78231.04 |  97.943
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      78231.04676471 BTC (2.057%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        4184.77217500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       74046.27458971 BTC (1.947%)
Pending Liabilities:           -0.80167299 BTC
Final SD Profit:            74047.07626270 BTC (1.947%)
Profit This Month:           2585.19484414 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 16127127  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  9053810  (56.1%)
Blockchain MB:   7102.6  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3735.0  (52.6%)



dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
June 05, 2013, 02:21:35 PM
#1446
Quote from: RationalSpeculator on June 05, 2013, 06:06:38 AM
Me too, I can't believe my eyes. I would be very surprised that this is from someone who does not have a lot of money. Makes no sense. It would be like buying a ferrari with your pension fund. Ofcourse exception to the rule always exist. But I think the rule is that rich people play big, not middle class people.

I like to think it's someone who bought a whole bunch of Bitcoins when they were worth a few cents each, or mined them when it was easy.

I also like to think he somehow doesn't realise that the price went up, so he thinks he's betting a few bucks here and there.  "Oops, just lost 300 BTC?  Oh well, that's only $5".  Although that seems pretty unlikely.
RationalSpeculator
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
June 05, 2013, 06:06:38 AM
#1445
Quote from: BTCdude007 on June 05, 2013, 01:30:23 AM
Quote from: dooglus on June 04, 2013, 02:09:45 PM
Quote

Mon Jun  3 17:31:09 2013 <32000 239515 ace309991765aec3:0  1FjQ22o6Rx5aehkkc8hkHQxxh5ncMt7ns2 BET   352.00000000 LOSE  -350.24000000

I am flabbergasted that someone can bet $42K on a single roll of the satoshi dice!

I just hope it is a multi-millionaire, and not someone gambling with their retirement or kid's college funds.

Me too, I can't believe my eyes. I would be very surprised that this is from someone who does not have a lot of money. Makes no sense. It would be like buying a ferrari with your pension fund. Ofcourse exception to the rule always exist. But I think the rule is that rich people play big, not middle class people.
BTCdude007
sr. member
Activity: 686
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
June 05, 2013, 01:30:23 AM
#1444
Quote from: dooglus on June 04, 2013, 02:09:45 PM
Quote

Mon Jun  3 17:31:09 2013 <32000 239515 ace309991765aec3:0  1FjQ22o6Rx5aehkkc8hkHQxxh5ncMt7ns2 BET   352.00000000 LOSE  -350.24000000

I am flabbergasted that someone can bet $42K on a single roll of the satoshi dice!

I just hope it is a multi-millionaire, and not someone gambling with their retirement or kid's college funds.
ar9
sr. member
Activity: 352
Merit: 250
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
June 04, 2013, 08:40:23 PM
#1443
LOL
And it begins...
romerun
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1002
Bitcoin is new, makes sense to hodl.
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
June 04, 2013, 05:08:54 PM
#1442
Something tells me that this month is a good sdice month.
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
June 04, 2013, 02:09:45 PM
#1441
Quote
Mon Jun  3 11:04:08 2013 <2000  239464 d8945b51106e185f:1  17XF9GMB7uM94JSety54a4eM1PjHC1QAMX BET     9.00000000 WIN    278.87911200
Mon Jun  3 13:27:06 2013 <2000  239484 1ce609f4a6eab1c7:1  17tGP1AurMpxfHwN47btTontzJRcGW6Pmb BET    12.00000000 WIN    371.83881600
Mon Jun  3 13:30:15 2013 <2000  239485 a946cd06805affd5:0  17tGP1AurMpxfHwN47btTontzJRcGW6Pmb BET    13.00000000 WIN    402.82538400
Mon Jun  3 14:17:54 2013 <8000  239489 e8b0ab5a2069b1db:0  17tGP1AurMpxfHwN47btTontzJRcGW6Pmb BET    26.00000000 WIN    182.01019200
Mon Jun  3 14:30:07 2013 <8000  239491 c935ef57178b6199:0  17tGP1AurMpxfHwN47btTontzJRcGW6Pmb BET    23.00000000 WIN    161.00901600
Mon Jun  3 14:30:07 2013 <8000  239491 cf3e2c98677ad279:0  17tGP1AurMpxfHwN47btTontzJRcGW6Pmb BET    23.00000000 WIN    161.00901600
Mon Jun  3 14:30:07 2013 <8000  239491 deff0f7cd47777f9:0  17tGP1AurMpxfHwN47btTontzJRcGW6Pmb BET    23.00000000 WIN    161.00901600
Mon Jun  3 15:21:47 2013 <2000  239497 ec10822db5acde15:1  17tGP1AurMpxfHwN47btTontzJRcGW6Pmb BET    23.00000000 WIN    712.69106400
Mon Jun  3 16:45:08 2013 <48000 239508 95bc9a405c9f4f58:0  1MnUw7R9Rj7RqTaZqL9RQSAcpdEqixRrLw BET   100.00000000 WIN     33.75653333
Mon Jun  3 17:13:25 2013 <32768 239512 3802f1d5efcf17b8:1  1JiCPow55co6QKAMvcugK95WQYkcw6QtcB BET   176.00000000 LOSE  -175.12000000
Mon Jun  3 17:27:43 2013 <8000  239514 2e03d3f0fb8e8814:0  1AdX7A6AEfCq4rGinByECCz1iTUiE93B9W BET    23.00000000 WIN    161.00901600
Mon Jun  3 17:27:43 2013 <8000  239514 e8e93790ca320aa6:0  1AdX7A6AEfCq4rGinByECCz1iTUiE93B9W BET    23.00000000 WIN    161.00901600
Mon Jun  3 17:31:09 2013 <32000 239515 ace309991765aec3:0  1FjQ22o6Rx5aehkkc8hkHQxxh5ncMt7ns2 BET   352.00000000 LOSE  -350.24000000
Mon Jun  3 18:26:03 2013 <2000  239527 31a699e7cfe4a600:1  1AdX7A6AEfCq4rGinByECCz1iTUiE93B9W BET    16.00000000 WIN    495.78508800
Mon Jun  3 18:45:30 2013 <8000  239529 cfe06a68d20c2d00:0  1AdX7A6AEfCq4rGinByECCz1iTUiE93B9W BET    23.00000000 WIN    161.00901600
Mon Jun  3 19:34:19 2013 <8000  239539 e9cb3cf2f210d77c:0  1AdX7A6AEfCq4rGinByECCz1iTUiE93B9W BET    16.00000000 WIN    112.00627200
Mon Jun  3 20:03:44 2013 <8000  239545 7db7a17fe6e41076:0  1AdX7A6AEfCq4rGinByECCz1iTUiE93B9W BET    16.00000000 WIN    112.00627200
Mon Jun  3 20:32:48 2013 <8000  239548 208708f8f8d3b6ee:3  1AdX7A6AEfCq4rGinByECCz1iTUiE93B9W BET    23.00000000 WIN    161.00901600
Mon Jun  3 20:38:59 2013 <2000  239551 993748a067dcbff8:1  1AdX7A6AEfCq4rGinByECCz1iTUiE93B9W BET    16.00000000 WIN    495.78508800
Mon Jun  3 21:38:44 2013 <8000  239557 f9b3f9e5371244e3:5  1AdX7A6AEfCq4rGinByECCz1iTUiE93B9W BET    26.00000000 WIN    182.01019200
Mon Jun  3 21:38:44 2013 <1000  239557 c1ce6ce68510378d:2  1AdX7A6AEfCq4rGinByECCz1iTUiE93B9W BET     6.00000000 WIN    377.80881600
Mon Jun  3 22:23:00 2013 <8000  239564 d026fa5a9c5129fe:0  1AdX7A6AEfCq4rGinByECCz1iTUiE93B9W BET    28.00000000 WIN    196.01097600
Mon Jun  3 22:35:03 2013 <8000  239567 50d4a602399a7b1a:0  1AdX7A6AEfCq4rGinByECCz1iTUiE93B9W BET    21.00000000 WIN    147.00823200
Tue Jun  4 00:16:28 2013 <8000  239579 3f987f2196d416f8:0  1GFXCFeP3bYuH9TsnFMHXWVHz82xWTg4f9 BET    15.00000000 WIN    105.00588000
Tue Jun  4 01:29:14 2013 <32768 239582 ca50e3ada941dc6c:0  1MnUw7R9Rj7RqTaZqL9RQSAcpdEqixRrLw BET   114.00000000 LOSE  -113.43000000
Tue Jun  4 02:20:23 2013 <32000 239588 16e2375b26142617:0  1MnUw7R9Rj7RqTaZqL9RQSAcpdEqixRrLw BET   104.00000000 LOSE  -103.48000000
Tue Jun  4 05:19:08 2013 <32768 239616 eaf2e5e4bcf5712d:0  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   100.00000000 LOSE   -99.50000000
Tue Jun  4 05:23:00 2013 <1000  239617 5a83953a31bba1fa:2  1ARi1rBLec9FSF3JVsf97gG3xJsx9pKUWU BET     4.00000000 WIN    251.87254400
Tue Jun  4 07:15:29 2013 <2000  239629 b043f111bad9f93a:0  1ARi1rBLec9FSF3JVsf97gG3xJsx9pKUWU BET     8.00000000 WIN    247.89254400
Tue Jun  4 07:15:29 2013 <2000  239629 d51674f5228ab2ca:1  1ARi1rBLec9FSF3JVsf97gG3xJsx9pKUWU BET     6.00000000 WIN    185.91940800
Tue Jun  4 07:39:12 2013 <2000  239634 1468e17f6ab04c76:1  1ARi1rBLec9FSF3JVsf97gG3xJsx9pKUWU BET     7.00000000 WIN    216.90597600
Tue Jun  4 08:29:59 2013 <2000  239644 57aa5a4cc0d13ce0:1  1ARi1rBLec9FSF3JVsf97gG3xJsx9pKUWU BET     9.00000000 WIN    278.87911200
Tue Jun  4 08:33:31 2013 <1000  239645 6bb321436b1c03d7:2  1ARi1rBLec9FSF3JVsf97gG3xJsx9pKUWU BET     5.00000000 WIN    314.84068000
Tue Jun  4 08:52:33 2013 <8000  239648 9281011e379142df:0  1ARi1rBLec9FSF3JVsf97gG3xJsx9pKUWU BET    23.00000000 WIN    161.00901600
Tue Jun  4 09:02:45 2013 <8000  239649 63a8bdf3fcbfdd47:0  1ARi1rBLec9FSF3JVsf97gG3xJsx9pKUWU BET    23.00000000 WIN    161.00901600
Tue Jun  4 11:17:14 2013 <2000  239667 1395421c2ab6690e:1  1ARi1rBLec9FSF3JVsf97gG3xJsx9pKUWU BET     8.00000000 WIN    247.89254400
Tue Jun  4 15:05:08 2013 <2000  239704 af91d96b8f1151b1:0  14bFtqnVfYE4rUDhQjVpRKW1YbNuQzEmdQ BET     8.00000000 WIN    247.89254400
Tue Jun  4 16:55:45 2013 <2000  239718 d00c17c49ca14a84:0  14bFtqnVfYE4rUDhQjVpRKW1YbNuQzEmdQ BET     6.00000000 WIN    185.91940800

Quote
Total of 70 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Jun-04 12:08pm (up to block 239742)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    24638 |   22281 (0.97861) |     487 |    1870 |   25725.66 |   25284.44 |   241.38 |    441.21 |  98.285
1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   162621 |  147971 (0.91570) |   13622 |    1028 |   82625.71 |   81383.07 |     2.70 |   1242.63 |  98.496
1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |   102763 |   87317 (0.85657) |   14621 |     825 |   88933.47 |   88057.79 |   401.43 |    875.68 |  99.015
1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |   108342 |   85433 (0.79405) |   22158 |     751 |   71190.22 |   69392.74 |  1188.34 |   1797.48 |  97.475
1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   465146 |  341011 (0.73477) |  123092 |    1043 |  324098.30 |  316270.16 |  6173.56 |   7828.14 |  97.585
1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   828113 |  412812 (0.49965) |  413392 |    1909 |  768613.61 |  748250.94 |  6524.30 |  20362.67 |  97.351
1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1341078 |  653447 (0.48802) |  685524 |    2107 |  951386.83 |  931266.27 |  2926.79 |  20120.55 |  97.885
1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   316106 |  115758 (0.36706) |  199611 |     737 |  601538.34 |  592807.90 |  1013.89 |   8730.44 |  98.549
1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   332745 |   81043 (0.24416) |  250885 |     817 |  396109.10 |  380798.27 |  2323.49 |  15310.83 |  96.135
1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   137483 |   25091 (0.18343) |  111699 |     693 |  184515.25 |  185525.34 |  3315.50 |  -1010.08 | 100.547
1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   248815 |   30439 (0.12266) |  217714 |     662 |  121858.55 |  120888.54 |   101.18 |    970.00 |  99.204
1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    66220 |    6002 (0.09142) |   59649 |     569 |   18096.05 |   19691.01 |     7.72 |  -1594.95 | 108.814
1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    41206 |    2528 (0.06199) |   38250 |     428 |    8091.72 |    8009.01 |    31.48 |     82.71 |  98.978
1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    33589 |    1532 (0.04632) |   31541 |     516 |   10240.29 |   11247.39 |    25.49 |  -1007.09 | 109.835
1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |   110542 |    3359 (0.03052) |  106706 |     477 |   60510.82 |   57442.46 |     9.69 |   3068.36 |  94.929
1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    28378 |     656 (0.02345) |   27316 |     406 |    8143.12 |    8731.64 |    15.24 |   -588.51 | 107.227
1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   170080 |    2622 (0.01548) |  166744 |     714 |   52046.21 |   49298.76 |     2.80 |   2747.45 |  94.721
1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    42083 |     332 (0.00804) |   40947 |     804 |    8543.72 |    6983.62 |    10.38 |   1560.10 |  81.740
1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    28286 |     118 (0.00424) |   27727 |     441 |    6135.31 |    8667.31 |    13.34 |  -2531.99 | 141.269
1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    23528 |      43 (0.00187) |   22947 |     538 |    2463.24 |    1598.31 |    48.60 |    864.92 |  64.887
1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    31875 |      35 (0.00112) |   31278 |     562 |    2219.73 |    1740.56 |   117.15 |    479.17 |  78.413
1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    31524 |      14 (0.00045) |   31047 |     463 |    1692.06 |    1851.07 |     1.62 |   -159.01 | 109.398
1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    25522 |       5 (0.00020) |   25015 |     502 |     896.53 |     606.71 |    22.24 |    289.81 |  67.674
1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    26131 |       5 (0.00020) |   25569 |     557 |     624.47 |     433.97 |    14.67 |    190.49 |  69.495
1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    15623 |       2 (0.00013) |   15071 |     550 |     223.71 |     320.45 |    18.54 |    -96.74 | 143.243
1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    13633 |       0 (0.00000) |   13032 |     601 |     190.61 |       0.54 |    30.50 |    190.07 |   0.286
1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   154760 |       3 (0.00002) |  152071 |    2686 |    1991.68 |    3844.48 |   183.62 |  -1852.79 | 193.026
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4778754 | 1961720           | 2794072 |   22962 |  918211.24 |  901604.90 |   359.54 |  16606.34 |  98.191
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   132076 |   58139           |   73643 |     294 | 2880493.19 | 2818787.95 | 24406.21 |  61705.24 |  97.858
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4910830 | 2019859           | 2867715 |   23256 | 3798704.44 | 3720392.86 | 24765.76 |  78311.58 |  97.938
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      78311.58434838 BTC (2.062%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        4167.76517500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       74143.81917338 BTC (1.952%)
Pending Liabilities:            7.25244778 BTC
Final SD Profit:            74136.56672560 BTC (1.952%)
Profit This Month:           2674.68530704 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 16071400  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  9024372  (56.2%)
Blockchain MB:   7076.7  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3722.7  (52.6%)



dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
June 04, 2013, 01:52:32 PM
#1440
The fan in my laptop makes a horrible noise every time I generate a new report for this thread.  I guess something's wearing out, and the extra load caused by loading the whole blockchain into RAM drives it too hard.

I've ordered a new laptop which should be here within a week, but until then I won't be posting the reports very regularly.  I'd like this laptop to keep working until I get the new one set up.

Having said that, I'm running a report right now because I'm curious to see how profits have been over the last couple of days, and will post it when it's done.
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
June 03, 2013, 02:52:51 AM
#1439
Quote
Sat Jun  1 03:58:26 2013 <32768 238987 71c6579fc5a6eac4:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   200.00000000 LOSE  -199.00000000
Sat Jun  1 04:20:12 2013 <32768 238990 4323357ade42635a:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   200.00000000 WIN    191.40000000
Sat Jun  1 04:33:50 2013 <32768 238992 4e79a67c627f20fa:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   130.00000000 LOSE  -129.35000000
Sat Jun  1 07:55:54 2013 <32768 239020 72eb0cae4b3062ad:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   100.00000000 LOSE   -99.50000000
Sat Jun  1 08:07:18 2013 <32768 239021 ecc2a20255120795:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   150.00000000 LOSE  -149.25000000
Sat Jun  1 08:10:31 2013 <32768 239022 11d92d03aace2c4b:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   200.00000000 WIN    191.40000000
Sat Jun  1 08:59:09 2013 <32768 239028 af3bebf0b2cc41fd:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   140.00000000 LOSE  -139.30000000
Sat Jun  1 09:14:09 2013 <32768 239030 f0ee9448270b64c4:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   200.00000000 WIN    191.40000000
Sat Jun  1 10:14:14 2013 <32768 239038 780c8387bb19c2da:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   100.00000000 LOSE   -99.50000000
Sat Jun  1 10:37:23 2013 <32000 239041 0b3b76f5a099ca1d:0  1MnUw7R9Rj7RqTaZqL9RQSAcpdEqixRrLw BET   100.00000000 WIN    100.38480000
Sat Jun  1 11:03:57 2013 <1000  239044 34d248cfcad68ef4:4  1MnUw7R9Rj7RqTaZqL9RQSAcpdEqixRrLw BET     8.00000000 WIN    503.74508800
Sat Jun  1 14:15:33 2013 <32768 239070 f96040c5d29c4023:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   200.00000000 WIN    191.40000000
Sat Jun  1 14:15:33 2013 <32768 239070 f258f7f22c05092f:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   300.00000000 LOSE  -298.50000000
Sat Jun  1 15:46:29 2013 <1000  239086 41fe1e9061e74ee9:2  1MnUw7R9Rj7RqTaZqL9RQSAcpdEqixRrLw BET     8.00000000 WIN    503.74508800
Sat Jun  1 15:52:02 2013 <32768 239087 d03a2e07472a625f:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   128.00000000 WIN    122.49600000
Sat Jun  1 16:22:43 2013 <32768 239091 4c1b62860fb72b09:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   100.00000000 LOSE   -99.50000000
Sat Jun  1 16:44:44 2013 <32768 239094 7503fd6b5c80036b:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   150.00000000 LOSE  -149.25000000
Sat Jun  1 18:11:22 2013 <32000 239110 d29a671b311ec21d:0  1MnUw7R9Rj7RqTaZqL9RQSAcpdEqixRrLw BET   170.00000000 LOSE  -169.15000000
Sat Jun  1 18:12:38 2013 <32000 239111 f2ef373abb88ce26:0  1MnUw7R9Rj7RqTaZqL9RQSAcpdEqixRrLw BET   150.00000000 WIN    150.57720000
Sat Jun  1 18:55:41 2013 <32768 239117 17da80db75e7c797:0  1MnUw7R9Rj7RqTaZqL9RQSAcpdEqixRrLw BET   296.00000000 LOSE  -294.52000000
Sun Jun  2 04:59:41 2013 <32768 239207 bf8093aeae44b930:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   150.00000000 WIN    143.55000000
Sun Jun  2 05:13:10 2013 <32768 239210 a66b2a79a133bf0f:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   200.00000000 LOSE  -199.00000000
Sun Jun  2 05:19:05 2013 <32768 239212 cdaaaa8fbb2ca844:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   400.00000000 WIN    382.80000000
Sun Jun  2 06:06:51 2013 <32768 239219 8a8d8453e5c58bf2:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   120.00000000 LOSE  -119.40000000
Sun Jun  2 06:14:12 2013 <32768 239221 f7b6a693f0465a6a:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   200.00000000 WIN    191.40000000
Sun Jun  2 08:10:09 2013 <32768 239238 d6afa9367c66a862:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   200.00000000 WIN    191.40000000
Sun Jun  2 08:16:24 2013 <32768 239239 ac32645633ee74ef:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   220.00000000 WIN    210.54000000
Sun Jun  2 08:32:35 2013 <32000 239240 65002b83bf50601f:0  1MnUw7R9Rj7RqTaZqL9RQSAcpdEqixRrLw BET   100.00000000 LOSE   -99.50000000
Sun Jun  2 11:20:01 2013 <32768 239259 45fc4b9a022265e6:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   120.00000000 LOSE  -119.40000000
Sun Jun  2 11:32:17 2013 <32768 239262 a1f831128d5f2a7d:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   240.00000000 LOSE  -238.80000000
Sun Jun  2 11:50:08 2013 <32768 239266 3cac4c180821a024:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   200.00000000 WIN    191.40000000
Sun Jun  2 11:57:50 2013 <32768 239267 9318f9401222d129:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   250.00000000 LOSE  -248.75000000
Sun Jun  2 13:09:09 2013 <32768 239272 b214d6d488a12893:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   100.00000000 LOSE   -99.50000000
Sun Jun  2 13:27:57 2013 <32768 239273 a54fb2a828b6140c:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   300.00000000 LOSE  -298.50000000
Sun Jun  2 13:41:04 2013 <32768 239275 e12626b049df9f53:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   230.00000000 LOSE  -228.85000000
Sun Jun  2 14:00:11 2013 <32768 239277 a4598b3422e6d2bf:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   402.20430000 LOSE  -400.19327850
Sun Jun  2 14:06:53 2013 <32768 239278 f06812a48ddeb8a2:0  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   126.00000000 LOSE  -125.37000000
Sun Jun  2 17:57:27 2013 <2000  239312 c340d1b4269ce7f9:1  17XF9GMB7uM94JSety54a4eM1PjHC1QAMX BET     6.00000000 WIN    185.91940800
Sun Jun  2 18:20:37 2013 <2000  239316 dc52357abba80fbb:1  17XF9GMB7uM94JSety54a4eM1PjHC1QAMX BET     9.00000000 WIN    278.87911200
Mon Jun  3 01:25:58 2013 <2000  239380 45eed0915ba211b4:1  17XF9GMB7uM94JSety54a4eM1PjHC1QAMX BET     9.00000000 WIN    278.87911200
Mon Jun  3 06:15:56 2013 <1000  239423 3ccf8fbcf75644a7:2  17XF9GMB7uM94JSety54a4eM1PjHC1QAMX BET     4.00000000 WIN    251.87254400

Quote
Total of 51 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-Jun-03 12:46am (up to block 239434)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    24594 |   22237 (0.97857) |     487 |    1870 |   25721.80 |   25280.57 |   241.38 |    441.23 |  98.285
1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   160938 |  146430 (0.91566) |   13487 |    1021 |   82371.04 |   81143.34 |     2.67 |   1227.70 |  98.510
1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |   101397 |   86160 (0.85669) |   14413 |     824 |   88186.06 |   87310.42 |   401.43 |    875.63 |  99.007
1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |   106676 |   84086 (0.79383) |   21839 |     751 |   70672.39 |   68839.46 |  1188.34 |   1832.93 |  97.406
1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   462894 |  339387 (0.73484) |  122465 |    1042 |  323236.73 |  315433.80 |  6173.55 |   7802.92 |  97.586
1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   823191 |  410366 (0.49966) |  410924 |    1901 |  765934.00 |  745957.53 |  6524.27 |  19976.46 |  97.392
1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1337465 |  651678 (0.48802) |  683685 |    2102 |  949882.19 |  930358.46 |  2926.78 |  19523.72 |  97.945
1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   315053 |  115400 (0.36715) |  198916 |     737 |  601465.84 |  592744.01 |  1013.89 |   8721.83 |  98.550
1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   331586 |   80769 (0.24418) |  250002 |     815 |  395861.47 |  380516.68 |  2323.47 |  15344.79 |  96.124
1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   137148 |   25030 (0.18343) |  111429 |     689 |  184491.43 |  185515.63 |  3315.49 |  -1024.20 | 100.555
1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   245749 |   30062 (0.12266) |  215026 |     661 |  117419.65 |  116408.68 |   101.18 |   1010.97 |  99.139
1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    66065 |    5989 (0.09144) |   59508 |     568 |   18063.89 |   19687.65 |     7.72 |  -1623.75 | 108.989
1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    41157 |    2525 (0.06199) |   38205 |     427 |    8089.57 |    8007.78 |    31.48 |     81.79 |  98.989
1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    33523 |    1531 (0.04638) |   31477 |     515 |   10238.80 |   11247.17 |    25.48 |  -1008.36 | 109.848
1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |   109716 |    3336 (0.03054) |  105904 |     476 |   55824.65 |   52899.71 |     9.68 |   2924.93 |  94.760
1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    28359 |     656 (0.02347) |   27297 |     406 |    8142.48 |    8731.63 |    15.24 |   -589.15 | 107.236
1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   169209 |    2610 (0.01549) |  165891 |     708 |   50198.46 |   48232.85 |     2.76 |   1965.61 |  96.084
1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    42048 |     332 (0.00805) |   40914 |     802 |    8543.15 |    6983.62 |    10.38 |   1559.53 |  81.745
1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    28249 |     118 (0.00424) |   27693 |     438 |    6134.46 |    8667.30 |    13.33 |  -2532.84 | 141.289
1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    23507 |      43 (0.00187) |   22928 |     536 |    2462.91 |    1598.31 |    48.60 |    864.60 |  64.895
1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    31858 |      35 (0.00112) |   31262 |     561 |    2219.45 |    1740.56 |   117.14 |    478.88 |  78.423
1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    31482 |      14 (0.00045) |   31005 |     463 |    1691.41 |    1851.07 |     1.62 |   -159.65 | 109.439
1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    25496 |       5 (0.00020) |   24989 |     502 |     896.01 |     606.71 |    22.24 |    289.30 |  67.712
1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    26116 |       5 (0.00020) |   25554 |     557 |     624.03 |     433.97 |    14.67 |    190.05 |  69.544
1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    15259 |       2 (0.00014) |   14707 |     550 |     219.82 |     320.43 |    18.54 |   -100.60 | 145.766
1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    13601 |       0 (0.00000) |   13000 |     601 |     190.22 |       0.54 |    30.50 |    189.68 |   0.285
1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   154134 |       3 (0.00002) |  151447 |    2684 |    1979.59 |    3844.42 |   183.52 |  -1864.82 | 194.202
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4755608 | 1950833           | 2781862 |   22913 |  914381.40 |  898192.84 |   359.27 |  16188.55 |  98.230
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   130862 |   57976           |   72592 |     294 | 2866380.23 | 2806169.56 | 24406.21 |  60210.66 |  97.899
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4886470 | 2008809           | 2854454 |   23207 | 3780761.64 | 3704362.41 | 24765.48 |  76399.22 |  97.979
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      76399.22251520 BTC (2.021%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        4142.20837500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       72257.01414020 BTC (1.911%)
Pending Liabilities:            0.38182950 BTC
Final SD Profit:            72256.63231070 BTC (1.911%)
Profit This Month:            794.75089214 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 15984152  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  8978501  (56.2%)
Blockchain MB:   7037.6  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3703.9  (52.6%)



organofcorti
donator
Activity: 2058
Merit: 1007
Poor impulse control.
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
June 01, 2013, 05:29:48 AM
#1438
Quote from: nimda on May 31, 2013, 07:10:55 PM
OK, just making sure. Hmm... I believe the longest expected loss run is actually -log(np)/log(q). This follows from the statements made at http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Run.html.


I've confused "expected length of a run" and "expected longest run", and probably confused you too.

I can derive the "expected length of a run":

Expected length of a run

For a series of Bernoulli trials where:

P(win) = p
P(loss) = 1 - p

the probability of k of losses before a win is the probability of k - 1 losses multiplied by the probability of 1 win:

P(X = k) = (1 - p)^(k-1) * p

From this the expected number of losses before a win can be derived.

E(X) = sum(n = 1 to n = k)  [ n * (1 - p)^(n - 1) * p ]

= p * sum(n=1 to n=k) [ n * (1 - p)^(n - 1)]

The derivative of a geometric progression sum(n=1 to k) n * x^ (n - 1) = 1/(1 - x)^2, so substituting (1 - p) for x:

p * sum(n=1 to n=k) [ n * (1 - p)^(n - 1)] = p * 1 / (1 - ( 1 - p))^2

 = p / p^2 = 1/p

So the expected number of losses before a win is 1 / p

This holds true for the number of runs in a win, by redefining

P(loss) = p
P(win) = 1 - p


Expected longest run

I'm pretty sure I didn't derive this one. Maybe it was dooglus.
* organofcorti attempts to shift the blame

Quote from: nimda on May 31, 2013, 07:10:55 PM
Edit: I believe I see where the 1 comes from... and yet it doesn't seem to work.
-log(1*1/2 + 1)/log(1/2) is about 0.5849625007211561814537389439478165087598144076924810, not 0.5 as intuition would suggest. Does the formula converge towards "correctness?"

As far as I can tell, neither converge to the correct answer although they clearly converge on each other. I'll see if I can figure it out.





Edit:  I found a better estimate here: http://gato-docs.its.txstate.edu/mathworks/DistributionOfLongestRun.pdf

Expected longest run = -log(n*p)/log(q) + 0.57722.../log(1/q) -1/2

Note: 0.57722... is the Euler-Mascheroni constant, which is the limit(n -> infinity) { sum(k = 1 to k = n)[1/k] - log(n) }
nimda
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
0xFB0D8D1534241423
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
May 31, 2013, 07:10:55 PM
#1437
OK, just making sure. Hmm... I believe the longest expected loss run is actually -log(np)/log(q). This follows from the statements made at http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Run.html.

Edit: I believe I see where the 1 comes from... and yet it doesn't seem to work.
-log(1*1/2 + 1)/log(1/2) is about 0.5849625007211561814537389439478165087598144076924810, not 0.5 as intuition would suggest. Does the formula converge towards "correctness?"
organofcorti
donator
Activity: 2058
Merit: 1007
Poor impulse control.
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
May 31, 2013, 06:49:56 PM
#1436
Quote from: nimda on May 31, 2013, 02:21:02 PM
Quote from: organofcorti on May 31, 2013, 12:09:33 AM
Quote from: dooglus on May 30, 2013, 11:29:39 PM
Quote from: organofcorti on May 30, 2013, 11:05:01 PM
I wouldn't believe dooglus. That's clearly a sock puppet account Grin (you've just been waiting for that, huh?)

Heh.  I found them here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2324967

Also, I just remembered and used something you taught me about a year ago: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2325281

Those were the days! I think it was more of a collaborative effort than anything else, though Wink

Now If I could just find the post where I derived the expected number of losses in a row as -log(bets*p + 1)/log(q). Where the hell did I leave that thing? Or maybe you derived it?
Please define "expected number of losses in a row." Are you using mean, median, or mode; are you ignoring wins in a row, etc.

I'm using "expected" in the statistical sense, and "in a row" in the usual sense. So the derivation is for mean number of losses in a row for a game with a win probability of 'p', loss probability 'q' (q=1-p), and number of bets, 'bets'.

As for ignoring "losses in a row", of course. Expected losses in a row can of course be derived the same way by redefining p and q.

Edit: That should be "expected longest number of wins in a row".
dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
May 31, 2013, 05:27:19 PM
#1435
Quote
Fri May 31 03:32:26 2013 <32768 238801 5b7a993cc26d3571:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   100.00000000 WIN     95.70000000
Fri May 31 03:42:40 2013 <32768 238802 9957fb4afd02c40b:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   100.00000000 LOSE   -99.50000000
Fri May 31 03:58:04 2013 <32768 238803 01fcefd94ef5a333:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   150.00000000 WIN    143.55000000
Fri May 31 04:27:50 2013 <32768 238805 0148217af38a4240:0  1MnUw7R9Rj7RqTaZqL9RQSAcpdEqixRrLw BET   100.00000000 LOSE   -99.50000000
Fri May 31 04:55:56 2013 <32768 238808 b037b30196ead4e9:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   100.00000000 LOSE   -99.50000000
Fri May 31 06:33:26 2013 <32768 238816 529880c6bc107319:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   100.00000000 LOSE   -99.50000000
Fri May 31 06:38:45 2013 <32768 238817 ec59541b8aa2ab59:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   200.00000000 WIN    191.40000000
Fri May 31 07:08:19 2013 <32768 238819 e7aa97061a251ea3:0  1MnUw7R9Rj7RqTaZqL9RQSAcpdEqixRrLw BET   100.00000000 LOSE   -99.50000000
Fri May 31 07:10:53 2013 <32768 238821 e9c88f618da46fd0:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   100.00000000 LOSE   -99.50000000
Fri May 31 07:18:38 2013 <32768 238824 515a73db982f864d:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   200.00000000 WIN    191.40000000
Fri May 31 14:20:31 2013 <32768 238884 d0f63bf9cf85e456:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   200.00000000 WIN    191.40000000
Fri May 31 14:56:35 2013 <32768 238888 b424885c320016fa:2  14j73fVVomPRpfzxb9DmYQQy7sFZj626a8 BET   100.00000000 WIN     95.70000000

Quote
Total of 220 bets unaccounted for.

Results: 2013-May-31 03:26pm (up to block 238941)

   Address  Target   Should Win |    #Bets |        Win        |   Lose  | Refunds |   BTC In   |  BTC Out   |  Refund  |   Profit  |   RTP 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice9wVt   64000      0.97656 |    24352 |   22003 (0.97861) |     481 |    1868 |   25710.59 |   25269.45 |   241.37 |    441.14 |  98.284
1diceDCd2   60000      0.91553 |   158248 |  143981 (0.91565) |   13263 |    1004 |   81850.21 |   80617.15 |     2.59 |   1233.05 |  98.494
1dicegEAr   56000      0.85449 |   100520 |   85416 (0.85675) |   14282 |     822 |   87532.07 |   86678.51 |   401.43 |    853.55 |  99.025
1dicec9k7   52000      0.79346 |   105661 |   83277 (0.79377) |   21636 |     748 |   70581.53 |   68747.34 |  1188.33 |   1834.19 |  97.401
1dice9wcM   48000      0.73242 |   458566 |  336246 (0.73492) |  121282 |    1038 |  322390.92 |  314638.92 |  6173.51 |   7751.99 |  97.595
1dice97EC   32768      0.50000 |   815948 |  406789 (0.49971) |  407269 |    1890 |  756030.92 |  737295.68 |  6524.21 |  18735.24 |  97.522
1dice8EMZ   32000      0.48828 |  1333540 |  649790 (0.48803) |  681655 |    2095 |  947902.25 |  928447.09 |  2926.75 |  19455.16 |  97.948
1dice7W2A   24000      0.36621 |   313922 |  115020 (0.36726) |  198166 |     736 |  601354.16 |  592641.45 |  1013.89 |   8712.71 |  98.551
1dice7fUk   16000      0.24414 |   328246 |   79918 (0.24407) |  247518 |     810 |  395547.59 |  380224.41 |  2323.45 |  15323.17 |  96.126
1dice7EYz   12000      0.18311 |   136349 |   24897 (0.18352) |  110764 |     688 |  184387.50 |  185436.05 |  3315.49 |  -1048.54 | 100.569
1dice6YgE    8000      0.12207 |   241619 |   29585 (0.12278) |  211375 |     659 |  116660.02 |  115811.11 |   101.17 |    848.91 |  99.272
1dice6wBx    6000      0.09155 |    65363 |    5934 (0.09158) |   58862 |     567 |   18024.55 |   19647.05 |     7.72 |  -1622.49 | 109.002
1dice6GV5    4000      0.06104 |    40878 |    2508 (0.06200) |   37944 |     426 |    8076.94 |    7992.81 |    31.48 |     84.13 |  98.958
1dice6gJg    3000      0.04578 |    33348 |    1523 (0.04638) |   31311 |     514 |   10232.07 |   11239.18 |    25.48 |  -1007.10 | 109.843
1dice6DPt    2000      0.03052 |   108116 |    3287 (0.03054) |  104354 |     475 |   55020.21 |   52051.82 |     9.68 |   2968.39 |  94.605
1dice61SN    1500      0.02289 |    28326 |     655 (0.02346) |   27266 |     405 |    8141.02 |    8728.21 |    15.24 |   -587.19 | 107.213
1dice5wwE    1000      0.01526 |   166847 |    2582 (0.01554) |  163563 |     702 |   49618.80 |   46865.54 |     2.74 |   2753.25 |  94.451
1dice4J1m     512      0.00781 |    41944 |     331 (0.00805) |   40812 |     801 |    8540.21 |    6982.35 |    10.38 |   1557.86 |  81.759
1dice3jkp     256      0.00391 |    28205 |     118 (0.00425) |   27652 |     435 |    6132.04 |    8667.29 |    13.33 |  -2535.24 | 141.344
1dice37Ee     128      0.00195 |    23486 |      43 (0.00187) |   22908 |     535 |    2462.38 |    1598.31 |    48.60 |    864.07 |  64.909
1dice2zdo      64      0.00098 |    31750 |      35 (0.00112) |   31155 |     560 |    2216.39 |    1740.54 |   117.14 |    475.84 |  78.531
1dice2xkj      32      0.00049 |    31408 |      14 (0.00045) |   30931 |     463 |    1689.59 |    1851.06 |     1.62 |   -161.46 | 109.557
1dice2WmR      16      0.00024 |    25420 |       5 (0.00020) |   24913 |     502 |     895.00 |     606.71 |    22.24 |    288.29 |  67.788
1dice2vQo       8      0.00012 |    26041 |       5 (0.00020) |   25479 |     557 |     622.63 |     433.96 |    14.67 |    188.66 |  69.699
1dice2pxm       4      0.00006 |    15243 |       2 (0.00014) |   14691 |     550 |     219.64 |     320.43 |    18.54 |   -100.78 | 145.888
1dice1Qf4       2      0.00003 |    13573 |       0 (0.00000) |   12972 |     601 |     189.93 |       0.54 |    30.50 |    189.39 |   0.285
1dice1e6p       1      0.00002 |   153008 |       3 (0.00002) |  150349 |    2656 |    1963.28 |    3844.33 |   181.83 |  -1881.05 | 195.812
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           small (bets < 4 BTC) |  4719575 | 1936174           | 2760588 |   22813 |  909803.49 |  893832.81 |   357.28 |  15970.68 |  98.245
            big (bets >= 4 BTC) |   130352 |   57793           |   72265 |     294 | 2854189.08 | 2794544.58 | 24406.21 |  59644.50 |  97.910
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                |  4849927 | 1993967           | 2832853 |   23107 | 3763992.58 | 3688377.40 | 24763.49 |  75615.18 |  97.991
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SD Profit before fees:      75615.18930502 BTC (2.009%)
Cumulative Fees Paid:        4103.81857500 BTC
SD Profit after fees:       71511.37073002 BTC (1.900%)
Pending Liabilities:           11.78571482 BTC
Final SD Profit:            71499.58501520 BTC (1.900%)
Profit This Month:           -103.82332942 BTC
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 15861501  :  SatoshiDice Tx:  8912717  (56.2%)
Blockchain MB:   6980.2  :  SatoshiDice MB:   3676.2  (52.7%)



dooglus
legendary
Activity: 2940
Merit: 1333
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
May 31, 2013, 05:00:41 PM
#1434
Quote from: wtfvanity on May 31, 2013, 12:17:32 PM
If I'm looking at the profit for may right, before expenses are taken out, each share in SD will receive about 5 satoshis, right? After paying for system admin and hosting, it's well negative. Right?

Wasn't it still May when you posted that?  I think it's still May now for another hour maybe, server time.
nimda
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
0xFB0D8D1534241423
Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
May 31, 2013, 02:21:02 PM
#1433
Quote from: organofcorti on May 31, 2013, 12:09:33 AM
Quote from: dooglus on May 30, 2013, 11:29:39 PM
Quote from: organofcorti on May 30, 2013, 11:05:01 PM
I wouldn't believe dooglus. That's clearly a sock puppet account Grin (you've just been waiting for that, huh?)

Heh.  I found them here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2324967

Also, I just remembered and used something you taught me about a year ago: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2325281

Those were the days! I think it was more of a collaborative effort than anything else, though Wink

Now If I could just find the post where I derived the expected number of losses in a row as -log(bets*p + 1)/log(q). Where the hell did I leave that thing? Or maybe you derived it?
Please define "expected number of losses in a row." Are you using mean, median, or mode; are you ignoring wins in a row, etc.
RationalSpeculator
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Re: Satoshi Dice -- Statistical Analysis
May 31, 2013, 01:19:04 PM
#1432
Quote from: wtfvanity on May 31, 2013, 12:36:20 PM
Quote from: RationalSpeculator on May 31, 2013, 12:25:04 PM
Quote from: wtfvanity on May 31, 2013, 12:17:32 PM
If I'm looking at the profit for may right, before expenses are taken out, each share in SD will receive about 5 satoshis, right? After paying for system admin and hosting, it's well negative. Right?

That's correct.

And losses are forwarded to the next month as well, right?

Indeed, as I understand it if the month ends at a loss it is prefinanced by the largest stockholder and forwarded to the next month where the large shareholder will first recoup their loss only after which remaining profits will be distributed.
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