What about Bitcoinia.
If they can controll the market and know for sure how it will go.
They can earn quite much by betting on it.
Topic: serious discussion on the strategy of the manipulator. Please no flame posts - page 4. (Read 7875 times)
September 21, 2011, 01:54:15 PM
September 21, 2011, 01:53:14 PM
It doesn't need to me malicious to be manipulation.
Pick up a dictionary:
ma·nip·u·late /məˈnɪpyəˌleɪt/ Show Spelled[muh-nip-yuh-leyt] Show IPA
verb (used with object), -lat·ed, -lat·ing.
1. to manage or influence skillfully, especially in an unfair manner.
(bolded for emphasis)
September 21, 2011, 01:27:19 PM
If someone can make money doing that, then why not. The price will slowly move up if there is true demand for it to go up, regardless of the back-and-forth created by manipulators. I wouldn't worry about it, either ignore the short term or use it to your advantage and trade accordingly.
September 21, 2011, 01:23:41 PM
The Manipulator is forcing the price down. People keep trying to rally and whenever it starts rallying big, he dumps coins onto it to make the rallying stop.
September 21, 2011, 01:02:06 PM
For sure, I'll be doing the same.
September 21, 2011, 12:46:29 PM
The massive 10000btc wall at 5 is gone now. The Manipulator seems to want it to drop into the $4-5 range.
He's just following the market, it's likely to dip below 5 at some point so why not soak up some more bitcoins for the money?
September 21, 2011, 12:44:03 PM
The massive 10000btc wall at 5 is gone now. The Manipulator seems to want it to drop into the $4-5 range.
September 21, 2011, 11:42:38 AM
The "there is no singular manipulator" case has been well stated. It does not need to be repeated ad infinitum as per the OP's request. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised if the price was wildly manipulated for profit and/or intensional discrediting, but I don't think the 'walls' will enlighten us. I often wonder about the stolen coins, whether Mt. Gox is solvent, or whether any central banks or credit agencies have taken active watch.
Revalin, I found your charts fascinating and others agree. Perhaps you could start a new thread or post them to ftp. Even if delayed to preserve your advantage, they could start a great discussion and suggested improvements.
Revalin, I found your charts fascinating and others agree. Perhaps you could start a new thread or post them to ftp. Even if delayed to preserve your advantage, they could start a great discussion and suggested improvements.
September 21, 2011, 11:00:19 AM
This is a stupid bot with deep pockets who chooses moments to go all-in based on an algorithm.
I used to think the same thing. Really.
But a bot-owner with deep pockets doesn't keep a 'stupid bot' around. These moves have been much less mechanical and much more organic.
I don't know exactly what's going on, but I'd be willing to bet it's not just a gang of ill-advised bots.
September 21, 2011, 10:53:26 AM
You won't be taking mine, I've been making plenty of money. Someone that can stop the market dead, killing a rally, whether they are using a bot or not, is still manipulating things and screwing with thousands of other people. It doesn't need to me malicious to be manipulation.
September 21, 2011, 10:50:19 AM
Explain 17000 BTC in at 7 that can appear and disappear instantly as it has many times. Often ranging from 10000 - 17000BTC . It is either a single person or a group who perfectly time placing or removing their walls.
Yes, one person/bot, but with malicious intent to manipulate the market?? or simply to profit? If you had funds to place 17k BTC orders, why would you only order 1000?
This is a stupid bot with deep pockets who chooses moments to go all-in based on an algorithm.
THERE. IS. NO. MANIPULATOR.
It's hilarious how idiotic some of the people here are.
I will enjoy taking your money.
September 21, 2011, 10:46:26 AM
Yes, that is a possibility for sure. Do these super walls appear on any other exchanges? I only use MtGox.
I dunno, that's a good question. It sure is peculiar. I'm glad I got in while the getting is good though! The way it rebounded I think we'll see it reverse it's trend, or at least stabilize soon. There are just way too many people waiting for them to get cheap, like me!
September 21, 2011, 10:39:24 AM
Yes, that is a possibility for sure. Do these super walls appear on any other exchanges? I only use MtGox.
September 21, 2011, 10:33:27 AM
I'm just saying, this thread sounds like some conspiracy theory of a mastermind planning ahead what the market will do. I don't believe that's the way things really are. It's not a single strategy, but rather the fact that actors using a lot of money tend to think about what they do. Throw an opening at them, such as people doing stupid moves due to inexperience or panic, and someone might just figure out the right move and make a profit.
Explain 17000 BTC in at 7 that can appear and disappear instantly as it has many times. Often ranging from 10000 - 17000BTC . It is either a single person or a group who perfectly time placing or removing their walls.
MTGox employees using insider trading, taking advantage of their btc holdings as leverage to manipulate the price to line their pockets.
September 21, 2011, 10:25:34 AM
I'm just saying, this thread sounds like some conspiracy theory of a mastermind planning ahead what the market will do. I don't believe that's the way things really are. It's not a single strategy, but rather the fact that actors using a lot of money tend to think about what they do. Throw an opening at them, such as people doing stupid moves due to inexperience or panic, and someone might just figure out the right move and make a profit.
Explain 17000 BTC in at 7 that can appear and disappear instantly as it has many times. Often ranging from 10000 - 17000BTC . It is either a single person or a group who perfectly time placing or removing their walls.
September 21, 2011, 09:39:50 AM
What makes you think all those "manipulative" things were caused by the same person?
When I see a drop causing panic, I sometimes also lower my bids, expecting the panic horde to sell regardless of price, or even with positive feedback for a bit.
As long as you have people falling heavily into such traps, there will be those happy to pick up the money. A move might also not be planned as manipulation at first, but just turn into it, with the one starting it thinking "oh well, if they want the game this way, it's fine too".
I'm just saying, this thread sounds like some conspiracy theory of a mastermind planning ahead what the market will do. I don't believe that's the way things really are. It's not a single strategy, but rather the fact that actors using a lot of money tend to think about what they do. Throw an opening at them, such as people doing stupid moves due to inexperience or panic, and someone might just figure out the right move and make a profit.
The large bubble itself was a good example of that. A single person could not make that happen, but the people who bought below 5 USD/BTC and sold above 20 certainly liked riding it.
When I see a drop causing panic, I sometimes also lower my bids, expecting the panic horde to sell regardless of price, or even with positive feedback for a bit.
As long as you have people falling heavily into such traps, there will be those happy to pick up the money. A move might also not be planned as manipulation at first, but just turn into it, with the one starting it thinking "oh well, if they want the game this way, it's fine too".
I'm just saying, this thread sounds like some conspiracy theory of a mastermind planning ahead what the market will do. I don't believe that's the way things really are. It's not a single strategy, but rather the fact that actors using a lot of money tend to think about what they do. Throw an opening at them, such as people doing stupid moves due to inexperience or panic, and someone might just figure out the right move and make a profit.
The large bubble itself was a good example of that. A single person could not make that happen, but the people who bought below 5 USD/BTC and sold above 20 certainly liked riding it.
September 21, 2011, 08:52:09 AM
I would like to know how to predict his behavior so I know beforehand if he will raise or lower it. How can I do that?
Step 1: Stop believing in a manipulator.
I've just put a few Bids in at $7 just for the hell of it, so I can be The Manipulator too. It's fun. Others should join in
Step 2: Stop looking at buy/sell walls. They are irrelevant. With the aid of bots/diligent traders, they rise and fall instantaneously and mean truly nothing. The only reason I watch Mt. Gox Live is to see in real time when my orders are filled.
Very true. People look at the 'walls' as if they're meant to be solid. If 20k of bitcoins are headed towards my price point you can be damn sure I'll raise or lower my bids to buy at the estimated optimal price. There is no rule in the markets that once a bid or ask has been placed that it must be left there until executed.
September 21, 2011, 08:27:01 AM
I would like to know how to predict his behavior so I know beforehand if he will raise or lower it. How can I do that?
Step 1: Stop believing in a manipulator.
Step 2: Stop looking at buy/sell walls. They are irrelevant. With the aid of bots/diligent traders, they rise and fall instantaneously and mean truly nothing. The only reason I watch Mt. Gox Live is to see in real time when my orders are filled.
Step 3:
Step 4: Profit
(It had to be said.)
September 21, 2011, 06:53:22 AM
I suggest we just ignore the manipulator, and go for a rally.
YEEEHAAAAAA!!
YEEEHAAAAAA!!
September 21, 2011, 02:25:18 AM
Cool charts, how do you sample the data? Do you just take a snapshot of the depth once every while, or do you subscribe to some kind of streaming updates?
(I ask this because I have market depth snapshots going back quite a long time, but your resolution seems to be to good to use this approach unless you flood the exchange :-)
(I ask this because I have market depth snapshots going back quite a long time, but your resolution seems to be to good to use this approach unless you flood the exchange :-)
I flood the exchanges.
Snapshotting through the JSON API once a minute won't make a mark on Gox's servers. I'll bet there are a hundred bots that pull once a second. The data is trivial to compute, and they can cache it for a second at a time if it ever becomes a burden.I did write support for the WebSockets streaming API, but at the time it was too flaky... Lots of random disconnects and outages. It might be better now, but I dropped it since the markets aren't moving fast enough for it to matter.
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