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Topic: Setting up new diff thread Dec 6 to Dec 20 picks closed. - page 15. (Read 9236 times)

legendary
Activity: 4326
Merit: 8950
'The right to privacy matters'
Last three adjustments add up to 27%.

Keep in mind that 9% after 10% is not 19% total but 19.9%... those percentages are deceivingly exponential.

On the other hand manufacturing and deployment is probably not exponential. So perhaps we are going to see additional 40-50 PH/s every round but the percentage will slow down.

Based on the idea that 125 ph from the last three adjustments is all .25 watts and

The other 450 ph on the network is .6 watts average. I can see room for lots of s-7s and Avalon 6s

Yeah, you could essentially double that 450 PH/s within the same space/power/cooling requirements. But man that's a lot of money to spend before halving. Not everyone is going to take that risk.
Funny that halving could come quite sooner than mid summer if we keep up this crazy jump in difficulty. Hopefully we won't but it has been larger than it has been in a long time.

I did a few calculations on that.  July 1 to 15 seem more likely  then July 16 to 31.

 If you do 7% every time it takes 13 days not 14

 So 14 or 15  adjustments  all a day shore mean we could move up 14 to 15 days.

But 1.07 x 1.07 x 1.07 x 1.07 x 1.07 x 1.07 x 1.07 =  1.606  and that is 7 adjustments not 14   so 1.606 x 1.606 =

2.58  which would mean diff would be 200 and gear hashing would be 1500ph

I frankly think those two numbers can not be  done.  I could see a diff of 100 to 110 and gear at 725ph to 750ph.

 If price holds over 400 or 500




However    we are still going up ,  boy  of boy  a  price crash to 180 like last Jan would be very interesting.

It would make all gear other then the s-7 and avalon 6  losing gear unless you have 8 cent power or better.
legendary
Activity: 2212
Merit: 1118
Lie down. Have a cookie
Last three adjustments add up to 27%.

Keep in mind that 9% after 10% is not 19% total but 19.9%... those percentages are deceivingly exponential.

On the other hand manufacturing and deployment is probably not exponential. So perhaps we are going to see additional 40-50 PH/s every round but the percentage will slow down.

Based on the idea that 125 ph from the last three adjustments is all .25 watts and

The other 450 ph on the network is .6 watts average. I can see room for lots of s-7s and Avalon 6s

Yeah, you could essentially double that 450 PH/s within the same space/power/cooling requirements. But man that's a lot of money to spend before halving. Not everyone is going to take that risk.
Funny that halving could come quite sooner than mid summer if we keep up this crazy jump in difficulty. Hopefully we won't but it has been larger than it has been in a long time.
legendary
Activity: 3654
Merit: 8909
https://bpip.org
Last three adjustments add up to 27%.

Keep in mind that 9% after 10% is not 19% total but 19.9%... those percentages are deceivingly exponential.

On the other hand manufacturing and deployment is probably not exponential. So perhaps we are going to see additional 40-50 PH/s every round but the percentage will slow down.

Based on the idea that 125 ph from the last three adjustments is all .25 watts and

The other 450 ph on the network is .6 watts average. I can see room for lots of s-7s and Avalon 6s

Yeah, you could essentially double that 450 PH/s within the same space/power/cooling requirements. But man that's a lot of money to spend before halving. Not everyone is going to take that risk.
legendary
Activity: 4326
Merit: 8950
'The right to privacy matters'
Last three adjustments add up to 27%.

Keep in mind that 9% after 10% is not 19% total but 19.9%... those percentages are deceivingly exponential.

On the other hand manufacturing and deployment is probably not exponential. So perhaps we are going to see additional 40-50 PH/s every round but the percentage will slow down.

Based on the idea that 125 ph from the last three adjustments is all .25 watts and

The other 450 ph on the network is .6 watts average. I can see room for lots of s-7s and Avalon 6s

legendary
Activity: 3654
Merit: 8909
https://bpip.org
Last three adjustments add up to 27%.

Keep in mind that 9% after 10% is not 19% total but 19.9%... those percentages are deceivingly exponential.

On the other hand manufacturing and deployment is probably not exponential. So perhaps we are going to see additional 40-50 PH/s every round but the percentage will slow down.
hero member
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
Thats so crazy, it's something like an additional 20'000 S7 on the network for 100 ph rounding 5 th per s7.  So we could by this logic add another 20'000 unit for December  Shocked Shocked Shocked or something.  I think the squeeze is really coming pretty hard as far as mining goes and we have good prices right now but if price falls ouch were going to be hurting.  But even the jump in price won't compensate for these gains
legendary
Activity: 4326
Merit: 8950
'The right to privacy matters'
the last 2 diff ajust were pretty big. Lets hope this one will be less.  Wink

well some quick math shows we added about 100 ph .

pretend it was all at .25watts per gh.

the other 470 ph before these jumps  was not a .50 watt average as some s-3's s 4's were mining so say :


470 ph of the network is doing .6watts 

100 ph of the network is doing .25 watts ----------------- there is a lot of incentive to go to .25 watt gear

a .25 watt s-7 paying 9 cents beats almost all .50 watt miners at they need to be down around 4.3 cents  not 4.5 cents since  space and wiring costs are higher.

one could argue we could add 100 ph in 1 month so why not add 100 ph the next month.
legendary
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1004
the last 2 diff ajust were pretty big. Lets hope this one will be less.  Wink
legendary
Activity: 4326
Merit: 8950
'The right to privacy matters'
I moved the other thread one due to an error (forgot self mod)

We had a rollover

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.13169444

Diff was 8.77%  he was correct!


 So we are now offering the largest 'free' prize ever 0.316 btc  and I am tossing in a sidehack-novac compac usb stick

 The picks open at block 600 made :

Bitcoin Difficulty:   79,102,380,900
Estimated Next Difficulty:   86,890,789,560 (+9.85%)


Adjust time:   After 1416 Blocks, About 13.6 days    at 1416 left or 600 made we start


Hashrate(?):   582,755,708 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):  
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.1 minutes
6 blocks: 58.3 minutes
Updated:  



and close at block 1200 made.


Bitcoin Difficulty:   79,102,380,900
Estimated Next Difficulty:   86,890,789,560 (+9.85%)
Adjust time:   After 816 Blocks, About 13.6 days At 816 left or 1200 made we stop.
Hashrate(?):   582,755,708 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):  
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.1 minutes
6 blocks: 58.3 minutes
Updated:  



make your pick  in .1 slots

example:

+2.1 =  philipma1957  this means I would win from 2.10 to 2.19

please make your picks easy to enter

+8.8    = tss     is easy to click and drag  please do it this way


philipma1957   I would like +2.1        is more work to put in place. please don't write your pick this way



Just a note in the last two adjustments  we added 95 ph  that is a lot of s-7's and avalon 6's
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