Topic: Silk road down for over 24 hours now. (Read 7841 times)
im thinking there might be a little more pain, just based on the fact that alot of people are at work, sleeping or havent been able to get on still to the silk road. BUT I think in the short term still upward mo imo.
I have worked with some graphs in trading to make money but, they are usually a tiny piece of a puzzle. News reports are a much greater impact on price than any graph can predict. We should have a competition for those who claim to make money using charts. Post your charts with your prediction, put in your orders, take some screen shots, and then show us your profit. For some reason no one ever seems to do this. My theory is that 99% of graph theory tends to be hindsight as it fails to take in most important factors in price movement. If I'm wrong it should be really simple to make predictions and profit and prove me wrong, right? I bet anyone who can successfully day trade Bitcoin for 30-60 days could get us to pool in a few million and all get super rich. I wont hold my breath. 
Ah, thank you for that (detailed) explanation. Great contribution to the community ^.^
That is very interesting, my knowledge does not go past market depth at the moment
.
I will have to look into that more, bit confused on the Y-axis units and how they relate to each other.
Does an equilibrium exist on these graphs? Again I’m not sure on how they are calculated so I’m not sure how to tell.
That is very interesting, my knowledge does not go past market depth at the moment
.I will have to look into that more, bit confused on the Y-axis units and how they relate to each other.
Does an equilibrium exist on these graphs? Again I’m not sure on how they are calculated so I’m not sure how to tell.
no problem
in regards to the Y-axis:
oscillators are usually rational transforms of price and volume data -- that is they look like fractions, having the form N/D for some N(price, volume) and D(price, volume).
this allows them to move within a fixed range for any (price, volume) input: 100 to 0, or 0 to -100. this would make the equilibrium or 'neutral' point the midline -- 50 on the RSI and -50 on the William's oscillator.
it'll take time to familiarize yourself with what the figures represent, but they can be very useful.
i hope my follow up worked for further clarification.
--arepo
the market was also severely overbought short- and long-term.
Can you explain this to me?
of course.
'overbought' and 'oversold' signals are usually given by oscillators, a special kind of technical indicator.
oscillators measure something that is comparable to the intuitive notion of the 'momentum' of price. since a general rule of markets is 'what goes up must go down', we can use oscillators to see the magnitude of the net 'upness' versus the magnitude of the net 'downness' in a given time frame, and anticipate corrections based on their proportions.
-===-
*1-month 6-hour scale*
*snip*
-===-
if the two oscillators are legible to you, the red splotches indicate periods of 'overbuying', where the net upness was high for a long period of time. notice how we have spent a lot of time in the overbought region in the mid- and long-term (mid-term circled in green, long-term not shown), and just left the overbought zone in the William's oscillator in the short-term (circled in blue).
further, we can interpret the current downward trending of both oscillators as a downward trend in 'price momentum', which both anticipated the sell-offs we just witnessed, as well as suggests that the market may be preparing for a major correction in the immediate future.
hope that was clear enough -- are you familiar with these indicators at all?
--arepo
Ah, thank you for that (detailed) explanation. Great contribution to the community ^.^
That is very interesting, my knowledge does not go past market depth at the moment
.I will have to look into that more, bit confused on the Y-axis units and how they relate to each other.
Does an equilibrium exist on these graphs? Again I’m not sure on how they are calculated so I’m not sure how to tell.
the market was also severely overbought short- and long-term.
Can you explain this to me?
of course.
'overbought' and 'oversold' signals are usually given by oscillators, a special kind of technical indicator.
oscillators measure something that is comparable to the intuitive notion of the 'momentum' of price. since a general rule of markets is 'what goes up must go down', we can use oscillators to see the magnitude of the net 'upness' versus the magnitude of the net 'downness' in a given time frame, and anticipate corrections based on their proportions.
-===-
*1-month 6-hour scale*
-===-
if the two oscillators are legible to you, the red splotches indicate periods of 'overbuying', where the net upness was high for a long period of time. notice how we have spent a lot of time in the overbought region in the mid- and long-term (mid-term circled in green, long-term not shown), and just left the overbought zone in the William's oscillator in the short-term (circled in blue).
further, we can interpret the current downward trending of both oscillators as a downward trend in 'price momentum', which both anticipated the sell-offs we just witnessed, as well as suggests that the market may be preparing for a major correction in the immediate future.
hope that was clear enough -- are you familiar with these indicators at all?
--arepo
The site is back up now, no telling how long. I think over 50% have faith in DPR and will not try to mass sell. At least I hope for the sake of bitcoin. No telling how long this uptime will last once the jackasses return. Let's hope they did some good engineering and things will remain up a while.
Any idea how the timing coincided with the recent downspike to $127?
I wonder if this entire situation could have been engineered to produce a large downspike.
the market was also severely overbought short- and long-term.
Can you explain this to me?
The site is back up now, no telling how long. I think over 50% have faith in DPR and will not try to mass sell. At least I hope for the sake of bitcoin. No telling how long this uptime will last once the jackasses return. Let's hope they did some good engineering and things will remain up a while.
Any idea how the timing coincided with the recent downspike to $127?
I wonder if this entire situation could have been engineered to produce a large downspike.
i'm fairly confident that these selloffs were a significant proportion coins of SR vendors. that being said, the market was also severely overbought short- and long-term.
The site is back up now, no telling how long. I think over 50% have faith in DPR and will not try to mass sell. At least I hope for the sake of bitcoin. No telling how long this uptime will last once the jackasses return. Let's hope they did some good engineering and things will remain up a while.
Any idea how the timing coincided with the recent downspike to $127?
I wonder if this entire situation could have been engineered to produce a large downspike.
The site is back up now, no telling how long. I think over 50% have faith in DPR and will not try to mass sell. At least I hope for the sake of bitcoin. No telling how long this uptime will last once the jackasses return. Let's hope they did some good engineering and things will remain up a while.
Any idea how the timing coincided with the recent downspike to $127?
Its obvious that a lot of Silkroaders (or however they want to be called) are cashing out at least part of their bitcoins as they are able to access the site. A lot of the sellers are not "Bitcoin believers" like most of the early adopters, but just drug sellers that are using Bitcoin because its useful (which is fine), so they tend to preffer holding fiat more than bitcoins, specially now that there is uncertainty. As more people access SR and have access to the funds more selling presure will appear. I think they will regret it long term and in a few years they wish they had kept their bitcoins, but you can not fault them for wanting something they are more familiar with and cashing out if they are not really into Bitcoin as a monetary system changer but just as a useful method to sell drugs.
The site is back up now, no telling how long. I think over 50% have faith in DPR and will not try to mass sell. At least I hope for the sake of bitcoin. No telling how long this uptime will last once the jackasses return. Let's hope they did some good engineering and things will remain up a while.
Any idea how the timing coincided with the recent downspike to $127?
The site is back up now, no telling how long. I think over 50% have faith in DPR and will not try to mass sell. At least I hope for the sake of bitcoin. No telling how long this uptime will last once the jackasses return. Let's hope they did some good engineering and things will remain up a while.
... Wait, silk road has been down for days and BTC price HASN'T tanked?
... Might this mean that BTC price isn't carried by Silk Road, i.e. we AREN'T still in 2011?
And according to some bull/bear schizos on here, the "speculators" have left, interest is down, and BTC is headed for the doldrums.
So if Silk Road is down, and "the speculators" "have left", and price is holding... major bullish, because it means price isn't based on drugs and wall st. wannabes, according to the bears' own arguments
... Might this mean that BTC price isn't carried by Silk Road, i.e. we AREN'T still in 2011?
And according to some bull/bear schizos on here, the "speculators" have left, interest is down, and BTC is headed for the doldrums.
So if Silk Road is down, and "the speculators" "have left", and price is holding... major bullish, because it means price isn't based on drugs and wall st. wannabes, according to the bears' own arguments
Ashley, don't be silly, I've been telling you forever the price is solely based on speculation and not usage or adoption. Right now my best guess is it is being used as a temporary cash store in hopes of good news later on. There is nothing surprising here at all.
Also Silk Road has had on and off issues for a long while so it will take more than 3 days to lose confidence. If MtFUX didn't bring BTC down to double digits that shows the irrational exuberance is still at an all time high. I've predicted a slowly downward trend for a long time although a panic sell based on possible news scenarios wouldn't shock me. Once Silk Road comes back who knows another irrational bubble as I first was thinking. I figured it would be up by today though.
EDIT - Also those with BTC in silk road can't panic sell currently their Bitcoins are gone unless the site comes back.
I don't want to spread FUD (just trying to use logic) but the longer Silk Road is down the more I worry a big cash out when funds do become available.
great post dude. Have you seen the message boards. People are going apeshit because they cant access their funds. You are right it may big a good time to short bitcoin after the road comes back up. alot of people have bills to pay.
... Wait, silk road has been down for days and BTC price HASN'T tanked?
... Might this mean that BTC price isn't carried by Silk Road, i.e. we AREN'T still in 2011?
And according to some bull/bear schizos on here, the "speculators" have left, interest is down, and BTC is headed for the doldrums.
So if Silk Road is down, and "the speculators" "have left", and price is holding... major bullish, because it means price isn't based on drugs and wall st. wannabes, according to the bears' own arguments
... Might this mean that BTC price isn't carried by Silk Road, i.e. we AREN'T still in 2011?
And according to some bull/bear schizos on here, the "speculators" have left, interest is down, and BTC is headed for the doldrums.
So if Silk Road is down, and "the speculators" "have left", and price is holding... major bullish, because it means price isn't based on drugs and wall st. wannabes, according to the bears' own arguments
Ash, alot but not all of the people on the silk road have either gone to atlantis or black market reloaded to get their drugs now. the silk road is the major player but even though its down right now people that want their drugs will still carry on they arent going to sop all of a sudden so what you are seeing now is still people buying for their drugs, but you are correct there are no manipulators because there is no volume.. and please dont call ne a schizo
Would mirroring the site under many different addresses make it ddos proof in tor?
The problem is that all transactions are stored in a database. In order to mirror the databases have to be sync'd. When you have high speed transactions this gets difficult with distance due to latency. Wall street gets around this having invested billions of dollars in fiber connects and centralizing everything in one spot. Of course if Wall street was the new 104 story building about to be completed I'd compare MtGox or Silk road as a 2 man pup tent. Not to be critical but they are small potatoes.
But couldn't all the mirrors be run from the same source? Because the DDoSers would just be targeting the website distribution in general, as opposed to targeting the specific source computer (if they could locate/target the source server then what would be the point of Tor)
So couldn't the dread pirate roberts just run 100 instances of Tor on the same server all with different tor addresses, but still serving up the same data from the same database?
But then again I have a really limited knowledge of Tor so this could be completely wrong.
No. You failed to address network link saturation which is the most common mode of accomplishing denial of service.
2. The speed of the server has pretty much nothing to do with DDOS resistance. DDOS is accomplished by saturating the network connection, not attempting to overload a machine that is simply piping data from disk to the network port.
That's incorrect.
While saturating a network connection is ONE way of causing a denial of service, overloading the target machine(s) so that they can't respond to requests even if the connection isn't saturated would also count as a DOS attack. As long as someone is intentionally trying to cause a network resource to become unavailable it's a DOS attack regardless of the means through which they cause that service denial. (If they're using a zombie botnet or some such then it's a DDOS).
Sure, that's not the only method. But saturating the link is the vastly most common method used in practice and so unless a solution addresses that, it isn't a solution.
Price will go up if SR is down hopefully. Less coins to be sold.
you are kidding right?
Atlantis was Litecoin only last time I heard. Looks like selling my Litecoins was a massive mistake! 
Tell me about it. At least there's a chance the ounces of silver I paid thousands of LTC for will regain parity, someday.
Atlantis accepts BTC and LTC. Source: some guy on reddit.
Proposal: Split Silkroad by category into several .onion sites. One for stoners, one for ravers, one for tweakers, etc.
Give the adversary multiple targets to attack, diffusing their (hopefully limited) resources.
Price will go up if SR is down hopefully. Less coins to be sold.
No dumb drug dealers cashing in by putting in market orders causing selloffs. That's one of my theories, anyways.
site is down. no coins moving anywhere.
Price will go up if SR is down hopefully. Less coins to be sold.
No dumb drug dealers cashing in by putting in market orders causing selloffs. That's one of my theories, anyways.
Would mirroring the site under many different addresses make it ddos proof in tor?
The problem is that all transactions are stored in a database. In order to mirror the databases have to be sync'd. When you have high speed transactions this gets difficult with distance due to latency. Wall street gets around this having invested billions of dollars in fiber connects and centralizing everything in one spot. Of course if Wall street was the new 104 story building about to be completed I'd compare MtGox or Silk road as a 2 man pup tent. Not to be critical but they are small potatoes.
But couldn't all the mirrors be run from the same source? Because the DDoSers would just be targeting the website distribution in general, as opposed to targeting the specific source computer (if they could locate/target the source server then what would be the point of Tor)
So couldn't the dread pirate roberts just run 100 instances of Tor on the same server all with different tor addresses, but still serving up the same data from the same database?
But then again I have a really limited knowledge of Tor so this could be completely wrong.
What you are missing is that the mirrors are what we call the front ends. That allow the interface to do transactions on the database or backend. If the front ends are being DDOS'd this causes latency to the backend database (think of two people purchasing the same product 5 minutes apart on two different front ends) and the transactions get all out of whack. It makes semi-real time trading almost impossible. The only solution I could see would be to make all trading heavily delayed to mitigate the latency.
I don't architect trading sites based on BTC so I'm not sure if delayed trading could work.
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