Sports betting - How to determine if the line is a trap?

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Quote from: alani123 on June 13, 2024, 05:33:18 PM

If a team has good chances to win but the odds placed on the opponent are giving out a low multiplier for your bet than expected, then I think this type of match is worth a look.
I'd say it's not that hard to figure this one out, but really it's something very often overlooked. People will go on to bet on their favorite team usually regardless of odds and won't even do much to adjust their bet size. A smart gambler would adjust his bets based on how risky a certain bet is. However betting blindly will just result in having no advantage and leaving things mostly to luck.

Surely you won't be able to change the outcomes, but by looking at the odds and choosing which bets are more worth than others you're making a choice that in the long term will help achieve better results in terms of performance. Really it's mostly about avoiding certain bets that have bad odds.

As explained in the OP.

Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 05:51:25 AM

here ; https://www.thegistsports.com/faq/sports-betting/

Quote

What’s a betting line?
A line actually refers to the point spread, or the specific number of points the sportsbook uses to determine the odds between an underdog and a favorite. The line is the margin between those two outcomes.

So that says it's not the betting odds which is known as moneyline when betting on a team to win straight up. We are discussing about the "point spread" here, it's the + - of the game which is harder to predict than just predicting the winner of the game.

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Quote from: Yatsan on June 13, 2024, 01:27:21 PM

Do a couple of bets and from that, decide whether it is your day or not. Personally once I got consecutive loss, then I will just be taking a rest and try the other day I would be able to do so.

I like that way of determining things, professionally I have not done something like that, but I am really going to take that advice because it seems that it is something quick, and there is not so much complication and I think that life is about that, not complicating things so much and seeing things as they are, I have always said something, when one is in a casino sometimes we think that it is a trap where we always lose money, but sometimes the casino system we must mature in understanding that it is basically an advantage of the house against which we fight, it is a very different thing to what is always done when the casinos are a fraud.

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Quote from: Assface16678 on June 13, 2024, 05:27:24 AM

Quote from: Questat on June 13, 2024, 01:01:48 AM

Quote from: Mrbluntzy on June 08, 2024, 07:03:26 AM

Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise. So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

What matters is how long you have been using the strategy and how often you had success with the strategy, you already said that you have recorded many success with the strategy and other gamblers that have not used the strategy can not really tell more about it, like me, I don't know about it but I know that there are more than two strategy in sport betting. I even guess that every sport gambler has their strategy that is giving them success and some of those strategy are not also working.

If we can't prove that we are profitable in sports betting, then basically what we are doing is just gambling based on luck. Honestly, it's hard to be unrelistic when the record does not prove anything, and in order for that record to be reliable, it should be the result for long term gambling, not only on few months and then conclude that you already found the recipe for success.

Well, I cant still say that sports betting is more on luck, well its because you only have 50/50 chances of losing or winning the bet because you will only bet in one team or player per match so the chances od winning is pretty big you just have to be more analytic and of course you are familiar with what sports you are betting, for example like me I often or my favorite sports I bet on is NBA leagues because I'm too familiar with the players and teams and I like watching those matches so I have a slight idea which has the advantage and most likely to win in a match by using that I also like to see the team stats and player stats so that I could add that to my analysis wether there is a factor that could make a team win or have an advantage. I'm sure we all have different way of strategies on howbcan we determine our selves on which team is more stronger.

It's easy to determine which team is stronger by simply looking at their standings and other factors such as statistics. It's true that the better team wins most of the time, but the question is: can it make us profitable as sports bettors? I'm sure you are familiar with the point spread and moneyline, and I believe bettors who are serious and want to minimize the house edge bet on the point spread rather than just picking the winning team on the moneyline, since the odds are usually lower than 1.50 when talking about a heavy favorite team.

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Quote from: Charles-Tim on June 05, 2024, 05:07:23 AM

What do you mean by looking at the line?

I prefer to check some last matches of the clubs or team that are playing and also check their h2h. These help a lot. But I do not just bet like that because I still also let the match get close to the time it would begin and check the players that will play in the match.

I think just looking at the last match of a team to predict if the team will win the bet is not enough because their are teams that they find it difficult to win games and If they finally win in the match it doesn't mean they still have the chance of winning game in the next match. The best way for me to predict if a team will win the match is to check the performance of the teams previous game in a row, if the team is able to win for or five times in a row then I can consider it. Another thing I check in a team before predicting is the performance of the team so far for the season. The success that a team has been able to achieve in performance is important when making prediction, though it is not a guarantee that bet must be won just because of the performance of a team in previous games.

alani123

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If a team has good chances to win but the odds placed on the opponent are giving out a low multiplier for your bet than expected, then I think this type of match is worth a look.
I'd say it's not that hard to figure this one out, but really it's something very often overlooked. People will go on to bet on their favorite team usually regardless of odds and won't even do much to adjust their bet size. A smart gambler would adjust his bets based on how risky a certain bet is. However betting blindly will just result in having no advantage and leaving things mostly to luck.

Surely you won't be able to change the outcomes, but by looking at the odds and choosing which bets are more worth than others you're making a choice that in the long term will help achieve better results in terms of performance. Really it's mostly about avoiding certain bets that have bad odds.

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Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

Lately, I've been using a simple strategy in sports betting by spotting lines that are overvalued or undervalued, which could easily attract public bets. Based on my record, I've had some success using this strategy. I realize that looking at stats alone to determine which team is better will not work. As gamblers, we have to do what others are not doing. A typical gambler will just look at the stats to determine the better team; they don't complicate things or consider other factors, which sometimes leads them to fall into traps.

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise. So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

Everything's a gamble, meaning without any assurance. Complicating sometimes result to bigger loss. The reason why many gamblers are complicating whenever they place a bet is simply because of frustration and struggle of winning which is normal. There are times I am winning more from betting at ease, especially whenever I'm just being lucky. Thinking in a complicated manner will just be a wasted effort because in gambling, if it is not for you then it won't be in your hands. This is a better way in order to be able to accept how things really are going. Once you got frustrated from exerting too much effort on your bet and end up losing, you'll be just hungry of winning. Let things be, if I would be asked.

Do a couple of bets and from that, decide whether it is your day or not. Personally once I got consecutive loss, then I will just be taking a rest and try the other day I would be able to do so.

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Quote from: Questat on June 13, 2024, 01:01:48 AM

Quote from: Mrbluntzy on June 08, 2024, 07:03:26 AM

Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise. So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

What matters is how long you have been using the strategy and how often you had success with the strategy, you already said that you have recorded many success with the strategy and other gamblers that have not used the strategy can not really tell more about it, like me, I don't know about it but I know that there are more than two strategy in sport betting. I even guess that every sport gambler has their strategy that is giving them success and some of those strategy are not also working.

If we can't prove that we are profitable in sports betting, then basically what we are doing is just gambling based on luck. Honestly, it's hard to be unrelistic when the record does not prove anything, and in order for that record to be reliable, it should be the result for long term gambling, not only on few months and then conclude that you already found the recipe for success.

Well, I cant still say that sports betting is more on luck, well its because you only have 50/50 chances of losing or winning the bet because you will only bet in one team or player per match so the chances od winning is pretty big you just have to be more analytic and of course you are familiar with what sports you are betting, for example like me I often or my favorite sports I bet on is NBA leagues because I'm too familiar with the players and teams and I like watching those matches so I have a slight idea which has the advantage and most likely to win in a match by using that I also like to see the team stats and player stats so that I could add that to my analysis wether there is a factor that could make a team win or have an advantage. I'm sure we all have different way of strategies on howbcan we determine our selves on which team is more stronger.

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Each gamblers who wants to place a bet will use many ways to find the right teams. You do the right things for you and other people will use their ways to find the teams that have a big chance to wins. That's why every gamblers will still learns many ways and research to finds what method that will works for them to find the right teams. Some people will check the history of each team that will match, but other people will use different methods because they must search for much information about each teams. But what you are doing can not be said the key to winning because analyzing the match will needs other things to finds the right teams and players. Although your way can be one of the key to wins, that does not means that other methods can not be the other key that gives them wins too.

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Quote from: Mrbluntzy on June 08, 2024, 07:03:26 AM

Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise. So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

What matters is how long you have been using the strategy and how often you had success with the strategy, you already said that you have recorded many success with the strategy and other gamblers that have not used the strategy can not really tell more about it, like me, I don't know about it but I know that there are more than two strategy in sport betting. I even guess that every sport gambler has their strategy that is giving them success and some of those strategy are not also working.

If we can't prove that we are profitable in sports betting, then basically what we are doing is just gambling based on luck. Honestly, it's hard to be unrelistic when the record does not prove anything, and in order for that record to be reliable, it should be the result for long term gambling, not only on few months and then conclude that you already found the recipe for success.

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Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise. So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

What matters is how long you have been using the strategy and how often you had success with the strategy, you already said that you have recorded many success with the strategy and other gamblers that have not used the strategy can not really tell more about it, like me, I don't know about it but I know that there are more than two strategy in sport betting. I even guess that every sport gambler has their strategy that is giving them success and some of those strategy are not also working.

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This is more or less like gut feeling? Or perhaps you're already familiar with the games, the teams, the players, and their plays that you'd be confused how certain betting lines turn out that way? I also have this confusion sometimes. But rather than interpreting the odds as overvalued or undervalued, I'd try to understand why because, for me, there must be a reason.

I don't know with others but I also have this tendency to guess the odds in certain matches. Sometimes, I'm surprised how my own predictions are too far from the odds released in the market. But I don't insist with my own analysis. More often, I just wonder what I missed. I don't conclude right away that these or those lines are overvalued or undervalued.

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Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

Lately, I've been using a simple strategy in sports betting by spotting lines that are overvalued or undervalued, which could easily attract public bets. Based on my record, I've had some success using this strategy. I realize that looking at stats alone to determine which team is better will not work. As gamblers, we have to do what others are not doing. A typical gambler will just look at the stats to determine the better team; they don't complicate things or consider other factors, which sometimes leads them to fall into traps.

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise. So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

This is an interesting and very profitable strategy, but very risky.
We know that sports betting pays very little, but the reason for this is justified by the fact that they are "quite predictable" compared to gambling in general, as a consequence, the houses reduce the reward for the one who statistically should win, and for " make the situation worse" we have many players who also bet mainly in favor of these statistics, and if on the other side of the bet there are few players betting on the unlikely, then the reward for the vast majority who bet on the statistics will in fact be small.

But, a smart or lucky bet on the "wrong side" will consequently yield a very generous prize. The problem is knowing how to identify these scenarios and bet at the right time.

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Quote from: wheelz1200 on June 07, 2024, 04:11:11 PM

Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

Lately, I've been using a simple strategy in sports betting by spotting lines that are overvalued or undervalued, which could easily attract public bets. Based on my record, I've had some success using this strategy. I realize that looking at stats alone to determine which team is better will not work. As gamblers, we have to do what others are not doing. A typical gambler will just look at the stats to determine the better team; they don't complicate things or consider other factors, which sometimes leads them to fall into traps.

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise. So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

The way I handle this is by setting my own lines in my head before I look. Usually it's in and around that and can spot my own personal value. If the lines are way off +/- a certain percentage then I stay away from that game. Likely there is something going on I'm not aware about that will alter the game. That's how I deal with trap betting

That's a good strategy too. You don't force yourself to bet on a game that you're not confident in. My main goal is to determine the most popular game on the board and evaluate if the line is correct according to my judgment. If I see one side is off, I'll usually bet on the correct side. Of course, it does not give me a right bet all the time, but most of the time is fine, and with that, I should not frustrate myself. I deal with it using the right bankroll management.

I'd really like to emphasize how we should stay disciplined in managing our bankroll because if not, it would leave us frustrated during a losing streak, which could result in wiping out the entire balance. We don't want to experience that, so we need to take it slow and be consistent.

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Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

Lately, I've been using a simple strategy in sports betting by spotting lines that are overvalued or undervalued, which could easily attract public bets. Based on my record, I've had some success using this strategy. I realize that looking at stats alone to determine which team is better will not work. As gamblers, we have to do what others are not doing. A typical gambler will just look at the stats to determine the better team; they don't complicate things or consider other factors, which sometimes leads them to fall into traps.

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise. So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

Some of these statistics especially those given by the casinos are sometimes traps because they will give you the information that will make you believe it's actually okey picking a particular team as the winners and foolish picking another as the losers and this is usually reflected in the statistics provided by these casinos, most times it's just okay to even go against the Information provided and just maybe you could turn out lucky with the results you will get at the end of the games.

You are quite rational with your taughts and I don't see it as overthinking, this is what happens almost everyday at the casinos and it takes only a very careful mind to get to see the logic and understand what is going on behind the statistics they are been provide with as at the time the statistics was added and they are about to make a prediction.

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I actually make my own odds based on h2h games , players , current standings and coach experience and after that I place a bet. Usually in this way you can catch higher odds and you will find yourself picking 5+odds instead of going for a "save" 1.23 odds. However , this won't work anytime because bookies know well how to make odds but there are traps in almost every sports category and you can find traps daily if you have the time to search for them.

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Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

Lately, I've been using a simple strategy in sports betting by spotting lines that are overvalued or undervalued, which could easily attract public bets. Based on my record, I've had some success using this strategy. I realize that looking at stats alone to determine which team is better will not work. As gamblers, we have to do what others are not doing. A typical gambler will just look at the stats to determine the better team; they don't complicate things or consider other factors, which sometimes leads them to fall into traps.

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise. So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

The way I handle this is by setting my own lines in my head before I look. Usually it's in and around that and can spot my own personal value. If the lines are way off +/- a certain percentage then I stay away from that game. Likely there is something going on I'm not aware about that will alter the game. That's how I deal with trap betting

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Sports betting is cool and one of my favorites, although winning your bet is still based on luck. If you apply a certain strategy, you will definitely not lose completely all the time but will regularly win your bet most of the time. We know that there is no way someone can keep winning in gambling every day and every time, but if you have some good sports knowledge and derive some strategies, you will be lucky more regularly than someone who doesn't even have good knowledge about sports.

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Quote from: Japinat on June 05, 2024, 07:54:38 AM

Say we have 2 teams in the NBA finals.

The current betting line now or point spread is

Dallas +6.5
Celtics -6.5

IMO, if I look at that line, that +6.5 might be a trap as it could easily attract public bets since Dallas are hot right now after they defeated the Wolves in a 4-1 series score. So in order for me to not fall into that trap, I might just bet on the other side which is the Celtics -6.5. However, as I was saying, I can only conclude if its a trap after the game is over.

Indeed, it was a trap. It looked like everyone was backing Dallas to cover the handicap, but it resulted in an easy dominant win by the Celtics. Game 2 could be different, though, as I don't see Dallas getting dominated again. Just like I've seen in the past, it's good to back a team that lost by a huge margin in the previous game, as they'll likely bounce back or at least make it a close game and cover the handicap.

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Quote from: Russlenat on June 06, 2024, 08:11:55 AM

Quote from: Questat on June 06, 2024, 05:16:58 AM

Definitely it's a trap for those who are aggressive in betting without even investigating while the line looks unsual. And honestly, that cashout thing in a casino is not too useful for me, because even if the line does look like it's not gonna hit, it also does not guarantee that we will win, so cashing out with a loss is already a loss.

It doesn't matter if your bet wins or loses, but if you're not confident with your bet, you can use the cashout option from the sportsbook to minimize your loss. Sometimes we make mistakes, and rather than losing it all, it's better to minimize the loss. If we don't cash out, we end up relying on luck instead of our skills in analyzing the game. Even if we win, it doesn't fully satisfy us because only winning through careful analysis is truly gratifying for bettors.

Who agrees with me?

That's another option, and it depends on the gambler's perspective. But for me, I prefer not to put much emotion into my betting and focus on playing with the numbers, if you know what I mean. Mistakes like this don't happen all the time, so it's sometimes okay to let it go and see if it results in a win. At the end of the day, if we want to make betting a long-term activity, we should learn how to manage our bankroll effectively and treat it as important funds that need to last.

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Quote from: Questat on June 06, 2024, 05:16:58 AM

Definitely it's a trap for those who are aggressive in betting without even investigating while the line looks unsual. And honestly, that cashout thing in a casino is not too useful for me, because even if the line does look like it's not gonna hit, it also does not guarantee that we will win, so cashing out with a loss is already a loss.

It doesn't matter if your bet wins or loses, but if you're not confident with your bet, you can use the cashout option from the sportsbook to minimize your loss. Sometimes we make mistakes, and rather than losing it all, it's better to minimize the loss. If we don't cash out, we end up relying on luck instead of our skills in analyzing the game. Even if we win, it doesn't fully satisfy us because only winning through careful analysis is truly gratifying for bettors.

Who agrees with me?

Topic: Sports betting - How to determine if the line is a trap? (Read 399 times)