Sports betting - How to determine if the line is a trap? - page 2.

Questat

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Quote from: dimonstration on June 06, 2024, 04:43:04 AM

Quote from: OgNasty on June 06, 2024, 12:09:13 AM

Whenever I’m sports betting and the line looks off to me I usually start researching why that is. Most of the time it’s a star player out with an illness or family emergency, etc. I’ve been guilty in the past of just taking the bet and thinking I got a deal only to find out later that I didn’t know something. So if something looks off, find out why.

I’m a victim of this many time when betting prematch in advance. Casino suddenly increased/decreased odds on the day match begins. This happened frequently on NBA since some team delay the announcement of injury report because they are maximizing time to check before the player can still play or not.

To prevent ourselves on making mistake, we should not bet early, wait maybe 15 minutes before the game as the line will not likely move anymore. Research on the injury reports or rumors is easy nowadays, but we have to confirm it before placing a bet.

Quote from: dimonstration on June 06, 2024, 04:43:04 AM

But this kind of betting offer is not a trap imho. It’s just look like a trap if a bettor is like us that is lazy to check and just looking on the odds offer by the sportsbook.

We are lucky that cashout was already introduced now because in old days, bet hedging is the only option.

Definitely it's a trap for those who are aggressive in betting without even investigating while the line looks unsual. And honestly, that cashout thing in a casino is not too useful for me, because even if the line does look like it's not gonna hit, it also does not guarantee that we will win, so cashing out with a loss is already a loss.

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Quote from: OgNasty on June 06, 2024, 12:09:13 AM

Whenever I’m sports betting and the line looks off to me I usually start researching why that is. Most of the time it’s a star player out with an illness or family emergency, etc. I’ve been guilty in the past of just taking the bet and thinking I got a deal only to find out later that I didn’t know something. So if something looks off, find out why.

I’m a victim of this many time when betting prematch in advance. Casino suddenly increased/decreased odds on the day match begins. This happened frequently on NBA since some team delay the announcement of injury report because they are maximizing time to check before the player can still play or not.

But this kind of betting offer is not a trap imho. It’s just look like a trap if a bettor is like us that is lazy to check and just looking on the odds offer by the sportsbook.

We are lucky that cashout was already introduced now because in old days, bet hedging is the only option.

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Quote from: Davidvictorson on June 05, 2024, 06:48:18 AM

Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

Lately, I've been using a simple strategy in sports betting by spotting lines that are overvalued or undervalued, which could easily attract public bets.

Isn't this the same as contrarian Indicators where your bets are against the public?

Sort of, but not totally a full fade the public strategy as sometimes the public bets win.
In betting, I don't need to bet on all available games on the board, I just select a game that is more popular than the other as that will attract a lot of bets, and that way, and most importantly, if the line is quite suspicious that it would easily attract public bets, I would go on the other side.

I'm not saying that this strategy work all the time, it doesn't work in gambling, right? What I observe with this is that it work most of the time, and that's all I need, and together with a good bankroll management, I guess I will be profitable in the long run.

Quote from: Davidvictorson on June 05, 2024, 06:48:18 AM

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Based on my record, I've had some success using this strategy. I realize that looking at stats alone to determine which team is better will not work. As gamblers, we have to do what others are not doing. A typical gambler will just look at the stats to determine the better team; they don't complicate things or consider other factors, which sometimes leads them to fall into traps.

It's good that you have records on this strategy and that you can conclude that it works. So if anyone is looking for something new to try out, they can just use this as evidence. And truly, a gambler has to do what others aren't willing to do, it will require thorough research and it takes a lot of time that's why I think most of us just look at the stats and then place our bets.

Record is necessary if we like to be updated with our performance, and this record should be free from bias, that we will right the correct result and compute the real percentage of winning. As long as I'm at 55%, I think that's already a great percent to maintain.

Quote from: Davidvictorson on June 05, 2024, 06:48:18 AM

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So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

This doesn't look like over thinking to me. How can you be wrong about it when you have your records. What I will added is that one must be flexible about this too. If there research turns out to be that spotting overvalued or undervalued lines may not work, then they should place their bets based off on what works which is their findings.

I feel a bit of that since I'm still new to this, I think I need more time to really determine if the strategy is working, if not then I'm just overthinking. LOL

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Quote from: YOSHIE on June 05, 2024, 07:43:54 AM

I rarely gamble on sports by determining teams that often spread points, I prefer to bet on sports by determining the score or the player who scores the most goals.

That's what I do in sports betting, looking at the H2H stats if the previous few games they often scored against each other then it's better to bet both teams score, this allows us to win the bet.
Although there are other betting options with handicaps.

Quote from: YOSHIE on June 05, 2024, 07:43:54 AM

The line betting method is too complicated for me, maybe if you are good at sports betting, maybe it's good enough for you to do it, maybe the quote above can provide a little winning point for line betting by judging.

I don't really understand line betting, it's something I haven't covered before, yes I just bet in general but with that always look for odds above @1.50.

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Quote from: CODE200 on June 05, 2024, 06:42:06 AM

Quote from: bittraffic on June 05, 2024, 05:57:44 AM

Damn! that's a slick skill you have there. Grin

So you mean you are just Jonah Hill in the Money Ball movie who looks at the stats and determines skills and which team?

I bet on some upsets as well, didn't turn out well for me. I have some kind of comparison to some players but depends on which sports we are up to.

I guess you're right, my first thought about this was Rain Man but it seems apt that it's Money Ball. I mean there's probably a consistency in terms of how some players do their thing, you can track them really easy and if you've got the time to analyze a lot of factors, you can easily do it, what I mean by many factors is that you need to consider also how players do during a certain time in the game, the way they synergize with other players is also a big factor, there's so many that it will hurt your brain if you're not good at it.

You'd be a great bettor when you see some skills that are overlooked at some point and when deployed correctly you can see the game can overturn. Sadly as just as gamblers we have zero chance to decide which players can play in the first quarter to the last. The only we can bet on is team vs team. But this kind of skill must be useful in analyzing Boxing or MMA, maybe you can even predict how the fight will play out or which round the fight will end.

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Whenever I’m sports betting and the line looks off to me I usually start researching why that is. Most of the time it’s a star player out with an illness or family emergency, etc. I’ve been guilty in the past of just taking the bet and thinking I got a deal only to find out later that I didn’t know something. So if something looks off, find out why.

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I'm doing something similar, I usually check the opening and current odds to see if there's any line movement, then look up which side the public is on because you sometimes see a lot of bets going through on one side and there's still no movement.

The Dallas/Celtics market that Japinat mentioned is a good example, I remember checking one of the betting bots in our group and it said around 80% of bets are placed on Dallas, but the spread isn't going down anytime soon.

Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

It goes both ways, regardless of the line looking like a trap you could be missing out on an easy win. Sometimes, we think that getting the best line should translate to a free win, but we forget that it's always easy for a team to crumble on a good day and ruin your bet at the end.

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I agree that stats are crucial, and analyzing recent matches, head-to-head records, and player availability is essential. However, I believe that just focusing on these aspects might not give us the full picture. Sometimes, the line itself can reveal hidden insights. For instance, if a line seems too good to be true, it might be worth investigating further to see if it's a trap.

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Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

You are right and wrong because at the same time, you would still base your winning on luck which even if you put all of your efforts in picking your game based on the teams historical and future influences, there would be no assurance that your efforts would bring you forth winning.

I understand your notion on one aspect which is to say... Sometimes it feels crazy lucky that when you compromises your predicted teams to win and then pick the underated team which by your mind, they are potential to loose, such potential loosing teams are sometimes the team to win. All these strategies are still based on luck.

pinggoki

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If your strategy is viable, you should probably do a data gathering or at the least, list your wins to see if what you're doing is really viable, I can already see where you're getting at, I mean looking at a player's statistics will really help you understand whether they can help you decide which team to put your money into. Really nice of you to share your way of winning bets, if it were some people (including me), I'd definitely not share it especially if it helps me make more money than I should in gambling.

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Quote from: Eternad on June 05, 2024, 07:15:07 AM

Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise. So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

I don’t believe that there’s really a trap line. Sportsbook already have their profit by providing bets with house edge especially on lower leagues which the house edge is very.

Bookmaker is not perfect which is the reason why there are some error on odds placement but that doesn’t mean they want to trap players. Players is just the one assuming it because they are typically suspicious on every bets due to the risk involved.

Odds provider doesn’t need trap lines just to get profit since they are relying on the house edge which is fixed per match.

I agree with you that looking at the line will not change anything or make you win often, because no matter how you gamble with different strategies and stats the house hedge or bookie will always win. It is good that we don't start going too far looking for strategies to enable us make profit in gamble, because if it is not your lucky day you will lose that bet.

It is not that I am against the OP, but it might become a problem that if you are too serious with this strategy, you might end up losing big, because you will have too much confidence in yourself and bet with a huge amount of money, since profit is what you are doing it for.

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Any strategy in sports betting is better than relying on luck, but for someone who wants to improve his chances of winning more than losing, he needs to study much more than raw statistics. When I was betting seriously, I always looked for specific matches not only based on statistics, but much more on the condition of the players and their motivation in a certain match in relation to the opposing team.

Such things require a lot of time and filtering of matches, but when you find events in which you can predict the outcome with relative certainty and if your bank can handle a bigger bet, then you have a chance to come out as winners. Of course, you should not limit yourself only to the outcome of the matches in the sense of 1x2, but you should bet on the options of total goals, options to score/not score a goal, the team's goal in both halves and similar.

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Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise. So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

I don’t even understand what you mean by looking at the line

No matter what you do or how good you are and how well you look at the line it doesn’t guarantee 100% profit i am sure, it can only increase your chances of winning. I would have try to learn and understand your strategy of picking the best bet but i am not the type that like being too serious and sensitive with my bets, when i am being too careful in picking bets that’s even when i end up losing my bets so i prefer being casual and not get too serious when i bet.

When selecting a game i look at the statistics of each team, how well they have being playing in recent games also i look at the head to head, how they perform when they face each other and some few other factors. I don’t take it too seriously as i believe gambling is a game of luck.

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For those who often bet on football, Im sure you guys ever seen markets that could be said to be abnormal but I dont think its right to call it a trap line.
Because even without cheating - in the end the bookie will always win, but I do agree that sometimes bookmakers provide a strange odds as if they already know the final result.
For example, in the Europa League final last month I posted about this before the match started

Quote from: Sunderland on May 22, 2024, 10:26:44 AM

UEFA Europa League final today, kinda surprised to see the odds for Leverkusen is still 1.80x considering they are still unbeaten in this season.
I guess the odds for Leverkusen will only range between 1.5x to 1.6x, 1.8x is quite big considering they are the favorite to win the Europa League this season.

I also thought that Leverkusen would win easily against Atalanta, but after checking the odds - I think this match could end in a draw (normal time).

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Quote from: Gozie51 on June 05, 2024, 07:46:11 AM

Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise.

Like what do you really mean by line, do you mean line up? If that's what you mean, I don't think that is enough to bet and win a match. Stats are important, head 2 head too and current fitness are what can give you possible winning if the house edge doesn't over power your analysis. As to odds and bookmarkers, it can be deceptive. Odds are not what determines winning though lower odds sometimes too matters. Overall, I don't see how you can determine you are in a trap until the game is over. Every bet is a potential winning bet until FT.

He did replied with a definition of line, a regular sports bettor would easily understand what line is.

I guess we must get used to the terminologies being used in sports betting.
Maybe we can read some from this article. https://www.si.com/betting/2020/05/13/sports-betting-terms-definitions-gambling

For me, a word trap is definitely defending on our own understanding, as "trap" means a realization after a bet is loss. So for a gambler not to fall into the trap, they should analyze the line very well and pick those teams that he think would cover the spread.

Say we have 2 teams in the NBA finals.

The current betting line now or point spread is

Dallas +6.5
Celtics -6.5

IMO, if I look at that line, that +6.5 might be a trap as it could easily attract public bets since Dallas are hot right now after they defeated the Wolves in a 4-1 series score. So in order for me to not fall into that trap, I might just bet on the other side which is the Celtics -6.5. However, as I was saying, I can only conclude if its a trap after the game is over.

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You are not overthinking, you probably spot the lines that are traps.

I think I was replied to more than once in the NBA betting thread about a line being a trap and they were correct when they spotted it, most of the time. Sometimes it is obvious, sometimes they are not. When an offer is too good to be true, it's probably a trap too. Let's say a weak team was given +20 and we think they could cover that, but when we watch the game, the other team will finish it with a lead of 30-40+ which means we lose.
For a new sports gambler, it may not be easy to tell if the line is wrong but with experience, they will probably see through it.
The hardest part of the offers is if you become emotional with the game, yeah, the example would be being a fan of the player or the team.

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Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise.

Like what do you really mean by line, do you mean line up? If that's what you mean, I don't think that is enough to bet and win a match. Stats are important, head 2 head too and current fitness are what can give you possible winning if the house edge doesn't over power your analysis. As to odds and bookmarkers, it can be deceptive. Odds are not what determines winning though lower odds sometimes too matters. Overall, I don't see how you can determine you are in a trap until the game is over. Every bet is a potential winning bet until FT.

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Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

If by the term 'line' you mean your opportunity to determine or spread points, to be honest I rarely place sports bets on the lines you mean, I rarely gamble on sports by determining teams that often spread points, I prefer to bet on sports by determining the score or the player who scores the most goals.

If this is what you mean.

Quote

When looking at the lines, it is important to know that the team with a negative point spread is always the favorite. The favorite can win the game but not cover the difference, which will only make you lose.

For example, the San Antonio Spurs are playing at home and are favored by 15 points against the visiting New York Knicks. You would read the lines as San Antonio -15 and Knicks +15. meaning if you bet on the Spurs, they have to win the game by more than 15 points for your ticket to be judged a winner. The same goes for any bet on the Knicks – anything other than a loss of 16 points or more will give Knicks bettors a winning ticket. If the Spurs win by exactly 15 points, the bet is graded as a "push" and both Spurs and Knicks bettors will get their money back.

The line betting method is too complicated for me, maybe if you are good at sports betting, maybe it's good enough for you to do it, maybe the quote above can provide a little winning point for line betting by judging.

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Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise. So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

I don’t believe that there’s really a trap line. Sportsbook already have their profit by providing bets with house edge especially on lower leagues which the house edge is very.

Bookmaker is not perfect which is the reason why there are some error on odds placement but that doesn’t mean they want to trap players. Players is just the one assuming it because they are typically suspicious on every bets due to the risk involved.

Odds provider doesn’t need trap lines just to get profit since they are relying on the house edge which is fixed per match.

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Quote from: freedomgo on June 05, 2024, 04:54:44 AM

Lately, I've been using a simple strategy in sports betting by spotting lines that are overvalued or undervalued, which could easily attract public bets. Based on my record, I've had some success using this strategy. I realize that looking at stats alone to determine which team is better will not work. As gamblers, we have to do what others are not doing. A typical gambler will just look at the stats to determine the better team; they don't complicate things or consider other factors, which sometimes leads them to fall into traps.

By looking at the line, you can already tell if there's something wrong with it, and you'll choose to be on the right side even if your heart says otherwise. So, guys, this is just my personal observation. Tell me if I'm overthinking, if I'm wrong about this, or if this really is the key to winning.

I don't think that odd makers are putting a trap for us, it's that the line could have been very close and it's going to be 50/50 no matter how you look at it. We shouldn't over complicated things as a gambler because if we did, we might have to look at a lot of factors before betting and so it might lead to losses if we will overthink.

I mean in sports betting it's only two teams that we are going to bet, and if we see the ML is not that attractive then look at the handicap and other betting options. The problem sometimes is that if we don't like the odds for the favorite, we look for other betting options that is appealing but we all know that the risk is going to be too high for that bet and the chance to lose is high.

Topic: Sports betting - How to determine if the line is a trap? - page 2. (Read 404 times)