By the way, the Champions League this season will be a real mess due to the new format, I don’t even know how relevant it will be to make money bets at this stage.
I think the prediction pools are always going to be a sort of revolving luck door. Especially when score differences on outcomes award extra points. So if you consistently put in your picks, add a dash of daring here and there, you'll eventually come out on top somewhere. Last season out of nowhere I took home a nice prize from AFCON how? By picking many 1-0 scores. No real research, just dumb luck.
The new format is definitely less viable for underdog outrights. You're seeded from your league position, and highest seeds play lowest seeds after. A pity for me and my style. Hope Bundesliga doesn't follow through with Super League in the end (but money talks loudest).
Yes, luck decides a lot (probably everything to be precise, especially when most of the forecasters are professionals or close to it). I remember how in the season before last I was very accurate in Serie A, but due to the fact that I almost never guessed the exact score I was at the bottom of the table. It was a real pain.
As for the Super League, I am on the contrary waiting for its launch. This format of the Champions League is a Super League, but an ugly one. Officials can never do anything good.