⚽ Sportsbet.io ⚽ Spanish La Liga ⚽ Football Pool Discussion Thread - page 76.

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Quote from: KTChampions on September 28, 2022, 01:37:55 PM

~snip

for example, such a game as Sevilla - Atlético, in my opinion, deserves attention.
Will anyone bet on this game? At the moment I see an extraordinarily generous chance at BTTS 1.95. It seems to me that both teams are productive enough and at the same time bad enough to both score and concede a goal in this match Grin

it does sound as good odds, but with Sevilla and Atletico, you never know, and this could end up with one goal win by any side (1:0, 0:1)
and it is after international break, when it is always questionable how teams are going to pick up first match

low odds, but Athletic should be a good pick on Friday, their best La Liga start in long time, and Almeria will have harsh fight to avoid relegation

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Quote from: darxiaomi on September 28, 2022, 01:16:08 PM

Yes finally the football league come back, i hate the friendly matches, i know we have some Nation Leagues and some good one on it but.... still lack of that essence or fire we have in the domestic leagues or UCL.

Imagine being an South America team and only playing agains low tier teams only for money, like Argentina and Brasil do.

Yes, after this swamp serious games in the championships will be like a breath of fresh air. Although there will be nothing epic in this round in La Liga (unlike other leagues), for example, such a game as Sevilla - Atlético, in my opinion, deserves attention.
Will anyone bet on this game? At the moment I see an extraordinarily generous chance at BTTS 1.95. It seems to me that both teams are productive enough and at the same time bad enough to both score and concede a goal in this match Grin

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Yes finally the football league come back, i hate the friendly matches, i know we have some Nation Leagues and some good one on it but.... still lack of that essence or fire we have in the domestic leagues or UCL.

Imagine being an South America team and only playing agains low tier teams only for money, like Argentina and Brasil do.

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Haha nice going on Spain slam, and don't forget we resume league action this Friday, I'd put all my picks in and worry about them later. Meanwhile, El Clasico's confirmed for 16 October, a packed month for Barca (9 games), Real looking like to postpone their 30th Oct game.

Injuries though, so either they're a good club to make money on next month if they get inspired to do a clean sweep, or they collapse.

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Quote from: darxiaomi on September 19, 2022, 09:21:15 AM

Man a great rewards we have!!!. Sadly for me i start really bad this season.

Talking about this round.... man i cant believe how bad i m performing, i think its one of my worst weekends in my life.

We now have a pause for Nations League and national teams football, lets see when resume the tournament i can perform better than this.

Yeah man, when I look at all the prizes in all the pools, even if I win the smallest ones it's a lot of money, but it also makes me think how much I already put in the pools lol

To be fair, I gamble the same amount and can lose the same amount in a few days when I am in bad luck so it's still a great investment for possible better returns.

It's amazing to see how some guys are so far up the table but as long as my Barca wins, I may never be happier.

Spainnnnn!!

darxiaomi

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Quote from: Trofo on September 14, 2022, 12:32:13 PM

Quote from: KTChampions on September 14, 2022, 12:16:33 PM

I'm not strong in table tennis and eSports (only I understand some types), but what can you say about women's tennis? Here is no accuracy at all, and during the match, the odds jump randomly in both directions. It seems to me that if you are seriously engaged in betting, then this is just the most profitable field for value betting, arbitrage, etc.

It is important for you to find your own niche, doesn't matter what it is. Important thing is that you have more info on that than bookie

Though to accomplish these days.

We have total of 138 mBTC in the pool this season and rewards will be given out for following positions:
1. Place - 60 mBTC
2. Place - 35 mBTC
3. Place - 19 mBTC (fees are paid from this prize)
4. Place - 12 mBTC
5. Place - 6 mBTC
Highest overall yellow cap - 6 mBTC

Man a great rewards we have!!!. Sadly for me i start really bad this season.

Talking about this round.... man i cant believe how bad i m performing, i think its one of my worst weekends in my life.

We now have a pause for Nations League and national teams football, lets see when resume the tournament i can perform better than this.

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Quote from: Trofo on September 18, 2022, 03:15:12 PM

Lewandowski is proven striker and he is genuine goal machine. I think he will do well in CL in the future for Barca. That first half against Bayern should have gotten them at least a goal and then it would have been a different game.

Real 2:0 up against Atletico and playing without Benzema? Did not expect they will pass trough this though away game that easy. Not watching it, but according to the stats it seems that result is a bit hard on Atletico.

Yeah, I'm still hurting also but we were the better team, just so unlucky, and we can afford that loss as it's still group stage. Bayern play like that again on the return game and we'll win easily.

Also read the reports and it was definitely harsh on the losers, and they also unfortunately had a lot of fan incidents so most reports are actually almost reading like they deserved to lose for their behavior.

I totally forgot to make a red card bet on this game ^facepalm^

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Quote from: Trofo on September 18, 2022, 03:15:12 PM

Quote from: tomahawk9 on September 18, 2022, 10:02:29 AM

1-0 Sevilla at HT. I think we're in for another big upset (after that Cadiz win from last friday). From Superbru: "5.16% of players picked a win for Sevilla" LOL those are numbers you would expect to see from a recently promoted side that's about to face a top 3 team

Quote from: LTU_btc on September 17, 2022, 05:27:53 PM

I haven't saw such boring game like Barcelona - Elche for very long time.

early red card for the small team = borefest. Many such cases. Btw, am i the only one who's starting to get some messi from the last decade vibes from Lewandowski? goal-scoring machine in La Liga - completely invisible against big teams in the champions league 😭😂 maybe things will change in the future, but those are the vibes i got this week :⌃)

Lewandowski is proven striker and he is genuine goal machine. I think he will do well in CL in the future for Barca. That first half against Bayern should have gotten them at least a goal and then it would have been a different game.

Real 2:0 up against Atletico and playing without Benzema? Did not expect they will pass trough this though away game that easy. Not watching it, but according to the stats it seems that result is a bit hard on Atletico.

We already know that Lewandowski is a goal machine. He averaged over 30 goals per season while in the Bayern Munich squad. Also, his performances have been stronger in the last few seasons. Barcelona's attack has become stronger with such an experienced and talented player. Now if Barcelona can solve their tactical problems they will be stronger.

My prediction against Real Madrid was Atletico to win 2-1. But the result is exactly the opposite. It proved that Real Madrid is not weak without Benzema. Atlético Madrid is the seventh team in the table with 10 points in 8 matches.

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Quote from: tomahawk9 on September 18, 2022, 10:02:29 AM

1-0 Sevilla at HT. I think we're in for another big upset (after that Cadiz win from last friday). From Superbru: "5.16% of players picked a win for Sevilla" LOL those are numbers you would expect to see from a recently promoted side that's about to face a top 3 team

Quote from: LTU_btc on September 17, 2022, 05:27:53 PM

I haven't saw such boring game like Barcelona - Elche for very long time.

early red card for the small team = borefest. Many such cases. Btw, am i the only one who's starting to get some messi from the last decade vibes from Lewandowski? goal-scoring machine in La Liga - completely invisible against big teams in the champions league 😭😂 maybe things will change in the future, but those are the vibes i got this week :⌃)

Lewandowski is proven striker and he is genuine goal machine. I think he will do well in CL in the future for Barca. That first half against Bayern should have gotten them at least a goal and then it would have been a different game.

Real 2:0 up against Atletico and playing without Benzema? Did not expect they will pass trough this though away game that easy. Not watching it, but according to the stats it seems that result is a bit hard on Atletico.

casperBGD

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Quote from: tomahawk9 on September 18, 2022, 10:02:29 AM

-snip

Btw, am i the only one who's starting to get some messi from the last decade vibes from Lewandowski? goal-scoring machine in La Liga - completely invisible against big teams in the champions league 😭😂 maybe things will change in the future, but those are the vibes i got this week :⌃)

Farmers league they say for Bundesliga, but it seems that all leagues are farmers leagues at one point
in EPL there was two 9:0 wins lately (that is not happening on WC anymore, even on local competitions, like Asian qualifications), and in Bundesliga 7:0 this season, La Liga is holding better on these numbers, and it is really rare ocassion in Calcio

maybe German and England football is just much more offensive?

regarding Lewa, I had same vibes since he announced getting to Barca

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1-0 Sevilla at HT. I think we're in for another big upset (after that Cadiz win from last friday). From Superbru: "5.16% of players picked a win for Sevilla" LOL those are numbers you would expect to see from a recently promoted side that's about to face a top 3 team

Quote from: LTU_btc on September 17, 2022, 05:27:53 PM

I haven't saw such boring game like Barcelona - Elche for very long time.

early red card for the small team = borefest. Many such cases. Btw, am i the only one who's starting to get some messi from the last decade vibes from Lewandowski? goal-scoring machine in La Liga - completely invisible against big teams in the champions league 😭😂 maybe things will change in the future, but those are the vibes i got this week :⌃)

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I got a first-half bet on Atletico. Both teams seem to enjoy scoring late, so I think Real would win in the end, and not sure if Griezmann coming on after 62nd is going to throw them off balance, so they need to do the job early, so they can play shithouse the whole game and lose.

Quote from: LTU_btc on September 17, 2022, 05:27:53 PM

Can't understand Valencia - one round they destroy Getafe, then lose against Rayo without any questions and now beat Celta so easy. Seems that whole season for them will be full ups and downs

Welcome to has-beens clubs. You win a title once or twice, and then for the next 20 years people think of you as some kind of possible upstart to the league. Capable of scoring goals with beautiful play, capable of playing like schoolkids.

Teams like Valencia are a martingale special for me, I think. Look for them at 2/1 or above, keep doubling down if they lose.

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Quote from: Harkorede on September 17, 2022, 09:11:21 PM

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid might actually not be overly interesting, due to Atleti's style, but it sure should be a match filled with loads of emotions.

I don't think this match will be interesting. Atlético Madrid is a team that always tries to play defensively against strong opponents and wants to share the points. They will also play defensively against Real Madrid. However, the match is likely to be competitive for Atletico Madrid to change tactics.

Real Madrid have won all their matches of the season. They will not want to lose the top spot in the points table. They will play to win. However, Atletico Madrid perform well in home matches. In the last 3 home matches, Real Madrid have drawn two and won one. So today's match is likely to be a draw.

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Quote from: LTU_btc on September 17, 2022, 05:27:53 PM

I haven't saw such boring game like Barcelona - Elche for very long time. Everything is ok, Barca won easy, but Elche looked like amateur team. They got red card early and parked bus then. It's common thing for underdogs, but I barely can remember games when even biggest underdogs failed to make attempt to make dangerous attack.
Can't understand Valencia - one round they destroy Getafe, then lose against Rayo without any questions and now beat Celta so easy. Seems that whole season for them will be full ups and downs
Last game before international game between Atletico and Real. I refrain from predictions, but I hope that Real will drop first points. Villarreal - Sevilla should be interesting game too.

I guess Barcelona are very boring to watch mostly on two occasions, one when they're not struggling to win or secondly, if you're not a fan, even when Barcelona are having a stroll in the park against an opponent, I love to see the team dynamics and how they can integrate some other player in the squad, perhaps to playing a different style. but the season so far, Xavi have been playing the same style just a different couple of players in other position, but the approach is still pretty much the same to me.

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid might actually not be overly interesting, due to Atleti's style, but it sure should be a match filled with loads of emotions.

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I haven't saw such boring game like Barcelona - Elche for very long time. Everything is ok, Barca won easy, but Elche looked like amateur team. They got red card early and parked bus then. It's common thing for underdogs, but I barely can remember games when even biggest underdogs failed to make attempt to make dangerous attack.
Can't understand Valencia - one round they destroy Getafe, then lose against Rayo without any questions and now beat Celta so easy. Seems that whole season for them will be full ups and downs
Last game before international game between Atletico and Real. I refrain from predictions, but I hope that Real will drop first points. Villarreal - Sevilla should be interesting game too.

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@Trofo @KTChampions

Yeah, find your niche is the name of the game. Unfortunately, I'm too old or don't have time to really get into new things but I do personally know a little bit about local football (or at least from reading local news) which doesn't get translated or covered in English or mainstream, so you sometimes find incredible bargains in AFC tournaments or local leagues, I feel so anyway!

My style with value is probably too simple... for example. If Team A playing Team B should win at least 1 out of 5 games but odds is better than 5/1, that's value to me. Of course, teams don't play each other that often in a short period so form and team members are important -- but the other way to look at it is how many losses the favourite has in a given stretch.

La Liga is a beauty in past seasons, with the Reals and Barcas losing enough games per season to poor teams (including in Europe) that it almost always makes sense to me to take 7-10/1+ bets on a decent team playing them.

re: arbitrage, that's why I don't ever call what I do arb. Only taking hedging opportunities if and when they come.

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Quote from: KTChampions on September 14, 2022, 12:16:33 PM

I'm not strong in table tennis and eSports (only I understand some types), but what can you say about women's tennis? Here is no accuracy at all, and during the match, the odds jump randomly in both directions. It seems to me that if you are seriously engaged in betting, then this is just the most profitable field for value betting, arbitrage, etc.

It is important for you to find your own niche, doesn't matter what it is. Important thing is that you have more info on that than bookie

Though to accomplish these days.

We have total of 138 mBTC in the pool this season and rewards will be given out for following positions:
1. Place - 60 mBTC
2. Place - 35 mBTC
3. Place - 19 mBTC (fees are paid from this prize)
4. Place - 12 mBTC
5. Place - 6 mBTC
Highest overall yellow cap - 6 mBTC

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Quote from: Trofo on September 14, 2022, 11:59:29 AM

Quote from: KTChampions on September 14, 2022, 11:45:54 AM

And yes, I agree with Trofo - there are sports that are full of fixed games and the player who wins there immediately falls under suspicion and additional checks, in my opinion it is better to avoid such markets altogether.

Only problem is that those sports are more or less only thing that actually gives you advantage over bookies. Odds on Champions League are always spot on and everything is known. When you follow some fringe sport you can always find something that looks like badly set odds and then you capitalize on those mistakes. I am not talking about fixed games, there are those as well, but I don't have access to them.

When looking at the match, I always set my odds and I tell myself I am taking this team to win if they give me for example around 1.6. If they give me way less I pick handicap on opponent, if they give me much more like 2.5 I take it for bigger stake. It compounds over the time and gives you net profit in the end.

I'm not strong in table tennis and eSports (only I understand some types), but what can you say about women's tennis? Here is no accuracy at all, and during the match, the odds jump randomly in both directions. It seems to me that if you are seriously engaged in betting, then this is just the most profitable field for value betting, arbitrage, etc.

Trofo

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Quote from: KTChampions on September 14, 2022, 11:45:54 AM

And yes, I agree with Trofo - there are sports that are full of fixed games and the player who wins there immediately falls under suspicion and additional checks, in my opinion it is better to avoid such markets altogether.

Only problem is that those sports are more or less only thing that actually gives you advantage over bookies. Odds on Champions League are always spot on and everything is known. When you follow some fringe sport you can always find something that looks like badly set odds and then you capitalize on those mistakes. I am not talking about fixed games, there are those as well, but I don't have access to them.

When looking at the match, I always set my odds and I tell myself I am taking this team to win if they give me for example around 1.6. If they give me way less I pick handicap on opponent, if they give me much more like 2.5 I take it for bigger stake. It compounds over the time and gives you net profit in the end.

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buwaytress

Thanks for the detailed answer. I can assume that while the player does not get a good plus, even if the algorithms monitor him, they do not take any action (you can turn a blind eye to violations if the casino is still in the black). But in case you suddenly hit the jackpot sometime, it is better to have a clean account without any violations.
As for arbitration, I didn't understand the math. After all, the bookmaker's margin is on average 5%, the boost gives 2% - if you do not wait for changes in the odds (which are not guaranteed), then this is still gambling and not arbitrage.

And yes, I agree with Trofo - there are sports that are full of fixed games and the player who wins there immediately falls under suspicion and additional checks, in my opinion it is better to avoid such markets altogether.

Topic: ⚽ Sportsbet.io ⚽ Spanish La Liga ⚽ Football Pool Discussion Thread - page 76. (Read 32618 times)