Topic: ⚽ Sportsbet.io ⚽ Spanish La Liga ⚽ Football Pool Discussion Thread - page 74. (Read 31882 times)

Farmers league they say for Bundesliga, but it seems that all leagues are farmers leagues at one point
in EPL there was two 9:0 wins lately (that is not happening on WC anymore, even on local competitions, like Asian qualifications), and in Bundesliga 7:0 this season, La Liga is holding better on these numbers, and it is really rare ocassion in Calcio

maybe German and England football is just much more offensive?

regarding Lewa, I had same vibes since he announced getting to Barca

1-0 Sevilla at HT. I think we're in for another big upset (after that Cadiz win from last friday). From Superbru: "5.16% of players picked a win for Sevilla" LOL those are numbers you would expect to see from a recently promoted side that's about to face a top 3 team

early red card for the small team = borefest. Many such cases. Btw, am i the only one who's starting to get some messi from the last decade vibes from Lewandowski? goal-scoring machine in La Liga - completely invisible against big teams in the champions league 😭😂 maybe things will change in the future, but those are the vibes i got this week :⌃)

I got a first-half bet on Atletico. Both teams seem to enjoy scoring late, so I think Real would win in the end, and not sure if Griezmann coming on after 62nd is going to throw them off balance, so they need to do the job early, so they can play shithouse the whole game and lose.


Welcome to has-beens clubs. You win a title once or twice, and then for the next 20 years people think of you as some kind of possible upstart to the league. Capable of scoring goals with beautiful play, capable of playing like schoolkids.

Teams like Valencia are a martingale special for me, I think. Look for them at 2/1 or above, keep doubling down if they lose.

I don't think this match will be interesting. Atlético Madrid is a team that always tries to play defensively against strong opponents and wants to share the points. They will also play defensively against Real Madrid. However, the match is likely to be competitive for Atletico Madrid to change tactics.

Real Madrid have won all their matches of the season. They will not want to lose the top spot in the points table. They will play to win. However, Atletico Madrid perform well in home matches. In the last 3 home matches, Real Madrid have drawn two and won one. So today's match is likely to be a draw.

I guess Barcelona are very boring to watch mostly on two occasions, one when they're not struggling to win or secondly, if you're not a fan, even when Barcelona are having a stroll in the park against an opponent, I love to see the team dynamics and how they can integrate some other player in the squad, perhaps to playing a different style. but the season so far, Xavi have been playing the same style just a different couple of players in other position, but the approach is still pretty much the same to me.

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid might actually not be overly interesting, due to Atleti's style, but it sure should be a match filled with loads of emotions.

I haven't saw such boring game like Barcelona - Elche for very long time. Everything is ok, Barca won easy, but Elche looked like amateur team. They got red card early and parked bus then. It's common thing for underdogs, but I barely can remember games when even biggest underdogs failed to make attempt to make dangerous attack.
Can't understand Valencia - one round they destroy Getafe, then lose against Rayo without any questions and now beat Celta so easy. Seems that whole season for them will be full ups and downs
Last game before international game between Atletico and Real. I refrain from predictions, but I hope that Real will drop first points. Villarreal - Sevilla should be interesting game too.

@Trofo @KTChampions

Yeah, find your niche is the name of the game. Unfortunately, I'm too old or don't have time to really get into new things but I do personally know a little bit about local football (or at least from reading local news) which doesn't get translated or covered in English or mainstream, so you sometimes find incredible bargains in AFC tournaments or local leagues, I feel so anyway!

My style with value is probably too simple... for example. If Team A playing Team B should win at least 1 out of 5 games but odds is better than 5/1, that's value to me. Of course, teams don't play each other that often in a short period so form and team members are important -- but the other way to look at it is how many losses the favourite has in a given stretch.

La Liga is a beauty in past seasons, with the Reals and Barcas losing enough games per season to poor teams (including in Europe) that it almost always makes sense to me to take 7-10/1+ bets on a decent team playing them.

re: arbitrage, that's why I don't ever call what I do arb. Only taking hedging opportunities if and when they come.

It is important for you to find your own niche, doesn't matter what it is. Important thing is that you have more info on that than bookie Though to accomplish these days.

---

We have total of 138 mBTC in the pool this season and rewards will be given out for following positions:
1. Place - 60 mBTC
2. Place - 35 mBTC
3. Place - 19 mBTC (fees are paid from this prize)
4. Place - 12 mBTC
5. Place - 6 mBTC
Highest overall yellow cap - 6 mBTC

I'm not strong in table tennis and eSports (only I understand some types), but what can you say about women's tennis? Here is no accuracy at all, and during the match, the odds jump randomly in both directions. It seems to me that if you are seriously engaged in betting, then this is just the most profitable field for value betting, arbitrage, etc.

Only problem is that those sports are more or less only thing that actually gives you advantage over bookies. Odds on Champions League are always spot on and everything is known. When you follow some fringe sport you can always find something that looks like badly set odds and then you capitalize on those mistakes. I am not talking about fixed games, there are those as well, but I don't have access to them.

When looking at the match, I always set my odds and I tell myself I am taking this team to win if they give me for example around 1.6. If they give me way less I pick handicap on opponent, if they give me much more like 2.5 I take it for bigger stake. It compounds over the time and gives you net profit in the end.

buwaytress

Thanks for the detailed answer. I can assume that while the player does not get a good plus, even if the algorithms monitor him, they do not take any action (you can turn a blind eye to violations if the casino is still in the black). But in case you suddenly hit the jackpot sometime, it is better to have a clean account without any violations.
As for arbitration, I didn't understand the math. After all, the bookmaker's margin is on average 5%, the boost gives 2% - if you do not wait for changes in the odds (which are not guaranteed), then this is still gambling and not arbitrage.

And yes, I agree with Trofo - there are sports that are full of fixed games and the player who wins there immediately falls under suspicion and additional checks, in my opinion it is better to avoid such markets altogether.

It is not just about the stakes, I think markets choice has even bigger flags. You are betting on top markets like CL and Grand Slams, limits for thise are virtually unreachable for most of us. I am thinking anything up 100k $ is pocket money on those games.

But try betting on lower level eSports tournaments, Russian table tennis or ITF tennis with amount like that and you will get tagged imeadiatly.

Stake limits my eSports tickets very strictly and I find myself in problems even with bets like 5mBTC, Sportsbet used to do same to me but not any more. Either they upped the limits or judged my account as safe. I never had any limits betting on top football leagues or tennis.

We have few big fiat bookies in Croatia. One which I use now never limits me, while one closed my account and another one does not let me to place bets for more than 10$.

I've heard of bookies limiting people but personally, it's never happened to me. Mainly because I'm not at all a big gambler, but also probably because I don't have a high win rate

But to answer/clarify: these bets were made at different bookies. The one against Real at Fairlay (which generally has way better odds for longshots, my impression is p2p has less juice). The live hedge was on Sportsbet (and you tend to get Super Boosts on big games anyway, so I really squeezed value there).

Fairlay doesn't limit you at all, btw, it's entirely p2p markets (you lock/escrow your funds in the system so you can only take or make offers matching your stake with the wins). It absolutely sucks for live betting though, very low liquidity anyway. Most markets have about 0.5 BTC per line.

That said, I do plenty of my bets at Sportsbet itself and it has never limited me, nor adjusted my odds. Again, I'm not a big stakes guy. Especially with the outrights like with World Cup, Grand Slams, etc. Early outrights with the daily boost means you squeeze out a LOT of value... and then I hedge those picks as the tournament goes on.

Same as City games, BVB was over 14.5 (regular 13.2) after a boost, so you see even with small bets. Say 1 mbtc, with a boost you "earn" 1.1 mbtc to hedge on City if they go behind. In fact, if odds improve, AND you wait for Super Boost (almost certain for this tie), you can even do pre-game hedge with handicap City, wait for Super Boost, and it's plenty of arbitrage.

Regular boost is anything from 7-10% I notice but Super Boost is something like 20%!

Another example from today/yesterday, with a boost, I took Dinamo Zagreb from something like 12.5 to 13.45. That's almost 1 mbtc "allowance" extra on 1mbtc wager. Check odds now it's only 10.00 and it's swung down to Milan, who, with a regular price boost is 1.32. Take it live, it'll creep up to 1.5 within first 15 mins no problem, then it's a nice way to keep hedging.

I imagine someone betting my style but with wagers like Hhampuz or maybe even Trofo would get limited but I'm just honestly a beer money guy Well, okay, these days 1 mbtc is more like 5-beer money haha but still, a proper bookie doesn't even look at me I think!

Good choice considering the final result! I would like to clarify - the bookmaker allows you to hedge a bet without problems or did you make a hedge on another bookmaker? After all, in fact, it turns out that you made an arbitrage bet and most bookmakers do not like it (although, for example, I see no reason for this dislike).

Yeah, I'm not too bummed about losing out on Mallorca, it was always going to be a losing bet, but catching 2.38 on livebetting right before Valverde equalised (thanks to a SB superboost), now that's special for me. Love seeing the giants going behind first... sadly has only worked out once this season for my own Liverpool ha!

Nice game, good goals, Real and Barca back to business at the top.

I thought the team was gonna struggle without good 'ol Benz in the team, but we have such good depth in the team that even without our best player we can win games comfortably by a 3 goal margin. That 3rd goal from Rodrygo today, though 🔥🔥🔥

heh, whenever i see Vini and Rodrygo doing their thing on the pitch, that one song from the joga bonito football commercials from 2006 starts playing in my head 🤩 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mvY20kZ2oSk good times

Yup, bed shitting starts early, and Sevilla wins will trick us all into believing they've turned a corner.

Also hoping for Real to stop their perfect streak and I know Mallorca aren't exactly the best bet but I took one over 11/1 at Fairlay... Benzema was out injured last game so maybe we have something... Hazard played well but he's never going to smash the charts right out of injury and Vini's got to have a day off at some point no?

Already 1-0 up, so of course I place a bet on Real live to hedge this

buway looks like you really know how to jinx Valencia after all and wow even Sevilla managed to get a solid win. I don't really care, those teams can do whatever they want as long as we keep winning by big margins and our boys all manage to score.

Would be really cool for Real to drop points today though so we can enjoy being top a little time more hehe

@Harko: Damn, the only Valladolid guy? I didn't even check but I thought most people would have opted for the draw, with Girona only winning against an even shittier Getafe earlier. As it turns out, 11 of us got points...


Add me to that list of haters. Especially let's say when you had a busy day, and you only can put a bet on the late evening, then you sort of screw yourself up the whole week waiting till late to use insurance (or skip a day so you can use it next morning).

Same with the boosts too... I know not everyone uses them but since I like taking longshots, 10/1 becomes 11/1 with the boost and that's REALLY important for me =)

And I hate Valencia too but they're on my ticket. So feel free to win free money betting against them.

Your bet hit from the very first half, congratulations!

I checked the pool and discovered I was the only one with Valladolid to win prediction, It could have gone my way though because Valladolid did create so many opportunities, but they just couldn't get it done at the end of the day.