Topic: (SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan - page 3. (Read 84914 times)

Have you thought about the 50/50 approach. You get 50% of coins to do as you will and so does he. If he sells early and BTC price then drops, he has his money to play with and he can take you out sometimes. If he sells early and BTC goes to the moon, you can let him visit your mansion or join you on trips from time to time.

Currently, there appears to be quite a few indicators that BTC prices are transitioning into reversal - meaning that maybe this time for sure we are leaving the fairly long bear market.  Accordingly, it seems even more necessary to prepare for some upward BTC price surges (even though we will likely experience several ups and downs along the way to the moon).

I think that I have created a pretty decent tentative rake plan that draws from concepts in this thread and according to my own individual particulars, and that is going to involve both raking and reinvesting. 

Even though my tentative rake plan is NOT as "simple" as the one set forth by op,  it still borrows fundamental concepts from the principles of projecting ahead and then establishing various criteria and triggering points. 

For me, these criteria are NOT exactly set in stone, but they are pretty solidly predetermined in order that I am able to act quickly when the predetermined BTC price points are triggered. 

My current projected rake plan involves raking approximately 6% the first time when my overall BTC holdings are at approximately 66% profits.  Thereafter, my rake is projected to be 3.3% each time that my BTC portfolio reaches an additional 33% profits.

Furthermore, my rake plan involves completely taking out 50% of the rake proceeds and holding the other 50% of the rake proceeds in a BTC reinvestment fund that will be triggered in approximately three stages (of equal amounts) - in the event that BTC prices subsequently drop 9% then 7% and then 4% (which in essence would cause the total amount of the reinvestment portion of the rake proceeds to be reinvested by the time BTC prices dropped 20% lower than my rake price, if such a drop were to occur).

I would be interested to hear about any other interesting and/or individualized tweaks to the SSS plan that others may have made.






 

Even if you are correct about the "all or nothing" dynamic of bitcoin and its success, that does NOT mean that you invest with "all or nothing" strategies... that would be foolish, because we know that there are going to be ups and downs along the way, and the realities is that you want to be taking out some profits at various times and even incorporating the enjoying of the fruits of your labor and life from time to time...

Of course you may think so but the topic of this thread since 2 years ago is a method how to invest in crypto so that you gain from the volatility and stay in black even if the end result is "nothing".

What I mean is that BTC has experienced serious problems with fungibility, regulation etc. and does not have leadership. Price has suffered as a result. A widely disproportionate number of the smartest guys in crypto have moved to Monero, and the opportunity is very much available still - Monero price is about 10-20% of what is was last year. I threw in a 10k to Bitcoin when everyone in our club was buying silver, thinking that diversification can never be bad, and due to that, I am able to write this in the conference room of my castle, looking at the opposite wall 17 meters away. There just isn't anything to lose when you buy Monero (the amount required to scoop the number corresponding to 10,000 BTC is nothing, even less than I paid to enter Bitcoin). If you believe BTC will stay larger that is all fine, silver is also more valuable than Bitcoin marketcapwise, but what counts here is if you make money or not with it.

What do you mean with the 10.000 BTC = 10.000 XMR?
You mean it can reach the current Bitcoin price, or that it will reach parity with BTC whatever the BTC price is?
I don't see this at all. I think XMR is a good coin, im invested, but it will never reach parity with BTC. No coin is going to be more valuable than Bitcoin, when sidechains open the gates towards endless possibilities we are going to see some serious shit.

Im sure there is money to be made by selling during bubbles, but it's too hard to know when the price is bubbled. As a long term holder I would easily hold for 5+ years without selling any sensible amount of my stack. It's all or nothing with this. Even Satoshi said so.

If you dreamed of having 1,000 BTC, buy 1,000 XMR. Surely you can afford $400?  It is not even risk. Just set the rake thresholds 10x higher and the end result is just the same.

I have thought about it.  I have mentioned it to BitchicksHusband.  Some of us are more "visionary" than others though.  The educated "risk takers" do get the greatest rewards in life.

Buy Monero. If you ever dreamed of having 10,000 BTC, you can now buy 10,000 XMR for about $4k. Not too much, is it?

Total quantity of XMR is about the same as BTC, actually less, so this is a valid comparison.

Then just do the SSS plan methodically from the beginning 

Some of us just get a bit greedy and set the starting point too high (This is what I am guilty of.)  Although I talked hubby out of selling coins on multiple occasions, we did sell some coins off, just to be in the black at about $400, but certainly didn't take advantage of the bubble cycle like we should have, or could have, had we followed the plan a little better.  Emotions are a dangerous thing!  I am learning though, I think.   I really think we should buy some more coins right now, but with too many expenses it really isn't feasible. 

Just that you have a plan. If your analysis of the expected value turns negative, my advice is to sell at regular intervals instead of SSS, because then the investment gets sold in your base case (price going down) yet gains are somewhat dollar-averaged in the happy case (price going up).

In other words: SSS should be used so that the rake price points are multiples of original entry point. Otherwise you take the risk yet cap the gains. It is bad luck that if you(s) almost did not hit your rake last time. I did. My first cashout ever in 15 years of investing... Luck plays a role.

Even though you have somewhat differing inclinations, working with some kind of plan will probably benefit your sanity considerably to come to some compromise as to the various triggering points.

If I were in your situation (having to share in some of my BTC decision making with another person), then I think that it would be good to play around with the whole matter a bit.

For example, lets say that hypothetically you have 100 BTC between you.  Maybe you could come to some kind of compromise to treat 80% or 80 BTC as subject to joint decisions?  10% or 10 BTC strictly for you to have final determination and 10% 10BTC for him to have final determination. 

Surely you could play around with this, and in the end, you would likely still be sharing all of the proceeds, but you would just allow some additional discretion to each of you to be able to play around with it, and maybe even jokingly be able to say "I told you so."  hahahahaha


You may also be able to learn more about the whole bitcoin experience by dividing it up a bit... and maybe even one of you may be more active than the other... ?  and maybe hahahaha Bitchick's Husband is worried that Bitchick will end up gambling away all of her BTC proceeds (so Bitchick may have to receive a relatively small BTC play allowance).

Yes but hubby wants to sell at a lower price than I do.  He reminded me that he wanted to sell earlier but we didn't.  It seems to always be my fault in hindsight.   I will try my best this time not to stop him from selling.  I admittedly have talked him out of selling before.  But I think if we get a good bubble going the price will go well over our previous ATH.  I guess having a plan in place is wise.  We really don't know for sure what is going to happen.

Everyone preparing their variations of SSS cashing out charts?

After experiencing a couple Bitcoin bubbles and not taking advantage of those rises as well as I should have, I fully understand the need for something like this SSS plan.  It is so easy to get very emotional about buying and selling for some people and I am admittedly one of those people!  I realize now that to really benefit fully it is extremely important to have a plan like this in place in order to make wiser decisions in the future.  The difficult part is just waiting for the next price increase so I can put this plan into practice.

Yeah, but the SSS plan is NOT only about choosing how much to invest, but also about a plan for raking profits and holding off from raking those profits too soon.. maybe even to take some thinking out of the equation, by creating an investment plan ahead of time, and attempting to stick with such ahead of time created plan.

I personally think that the SSS plan is a good framework for starting to think about possibilities, and that the SSS could pay off really well in some scenarios, but some would call such a plan a bit insane rather than sane to expect mathematical and continued exponential growth in BTC..... especially as some of the big player downward bank manipulators increasingly come into the BTC space.

I have tweaked and personalized the SSS plan in such a way that currently I am dividing my BTC portfolio into 3 portions, but within some of my BTC portions, I will be trading (based on a preset model that I have personalized and is adaptive to my view of the world of bitcoin and the probabilities of certain outcomes), and the other portion of my BTC portfolio, I will be raking as the price goes up (in the event that it does go up, which i am sort of presuming within my plan - even though I am prepared for the scenario that BTC prices may NOT go up (and that is investing no more than I can afford to lose. 

 I concede that the SSS did provide me with some terms in which to think about what I consider to be realistic probabilities within my own plan while allowing savings, trading, and trading only with a portion of my BTC portfolio that assumes that it remains very likely that at some unexpected point, there could be an exponential spurt upward in BTC values that will cause part of my portfolio (that had been sold) to be treated as a rake.

What I'm doing right now is basically using the money that i would otherwise spent it for entertainment and buying other non valued stuff and put it into bitcoin. If it becomes trash one day, the loses wouldn not significantly impact or bring down my whole life.

A pretty simple plan is to invest only what you can lose 100% on.

If you can't lose 100% of what you think you want to invest...you probably should invest much much less.

It's your call and no one else's.

Proceed at your own risk.

Certainly, I believe that there is considerable value in planning ahead and even having some kinds of concrete plans that are NOT going to cause you to panic at the wrong moments.  However, sometimes, there also needs to be some flexibility because no market system is going to follow any mathematical formulas with precision because there are humans and manipulators and politicians involved.

I think that you are correct that a lot of previous bulls are becoming weary of bitcoin, and it will be interesting to see whether they start to buy back into bitcoin if it goes above $500 and then continues upwards and maybe by the time they buy back in (if they do) then BTC prices will be back on a downward trajectory (ups and downs that are NOT easy to predict or contain by many manipulators while they are happening).


Yes, I understand the concept of rake and then to keep your rake or to diversify your rake (and NOT to buy back in); however, sometimes modification may be practical and necessary, especially if an investor knows that the price is going to come back up, but in the meantime the price is being manipulated downward.  In those kinds of circumstances, a person can sell part of his BTC holdings and buy back in for larger holdings.  NO that practice is NOT clean, and it is NOT mathematical and yes it takes judgement and guesses that may result in the investor guessing wrong and missing out on gains that he could have had.









Yes, dollar cost averaging (DCA) is a bit of a different practice from what you are proposing, but DCA is NOT incompatible with concepts of raking profits.  DCA can work with any investment and it can be more assured way of investing rather than a balls to the walls alternative.

DCA is a tried and trued method that anticipates that in the long run, the asset will be going up in price, or at some point will return to an upward trajectory.  In that sense, DCA works with every kind of investment, except for those that never return to an upward price trajectory.... but even then, a fairly strict DCA practice may allow an investor to discontinue investing in a depreciating asset that does NOT appear to have any recovery in its future.


Actually, there are fairly new investors within the past 2 years that could hold a sizable quantity of bitcoin and have cost bases anywhere between $0 and $2,000 - likely most of them that merely bought at various points and hold will have cost bases largely between $220 and $700.  You will have cost bases outside of the largely $220 to $700 when you either got unlucky or lucky in buying outside of the range or you engaged in failing or or successful trades. 

I see no real reason for a person to NOT continue to buy and to accumulate at this time, and DCA allows someone to continue to invest a certain percentage of his/her income while continuing to have the income coming in.  Normal people do NOT usually have large chunks of money to invest but instead have a stream of income in which they can DCA and/or invest and spend wisely by living within their income stream (rather than beyond it).

Your suggestion to take a stake between 1% and 50% seems to be a bit broad, but instead more feasible that someone figures out their income stream and their expenses and then figure out ways to live within their means by investing a certain portion of their extra money (or extra that they have created by frugality) to invest in Bitcoin.  Then the rake concepts will apply as BTC prices appreciate and that they are able to monitor that BTC prices can move fairly quickly in order that they can act (to rake) at more or less the preset BTC price that they have established.

Also, surely, let's say for example that at this time, a guy's average cost basis is $500, and at this time he decides that he wants to begin to rake at 2x 10% and then continue to rake 5% thereafter at every 1.5x.  If he discontinues completely to invest in BTC, then his cost basis will remain at $500, and it will be easy; however, life in reality and the reality of normal people is NOT so easy.  It is likely for a variety of reasons that his cost basis is going to change through time, whether he buys more BTC or he sells BTC.... The guy(gal) likely has an income stream in fiat, and may want to continue to periodically invest in BTC... or through time, a person may also develop part of an income stream in BTC, which may cause some of the cost basis calculations to become a little more complicated to clarify and to keep track of.





This is very incomplete advise for real people.  Surely some people may want to follow these kinds of formulations; however, in the real world, people get involved in all kinds of investments (even yourself), such as real estate, precious metals (PM), other cryptos, the stock market, bonds, family business, etc.

Your point about diversification is certainly valid, and your points about considering net worth, available income, liquid assets and percentage allocations to direct towards each area are very valid considerations that are going to play out differently for each person and their risk profiles.

Certainly, some people could put 5% of their income stream into BTC; however, that may entail less than 1% of their total assets and maybe even less than .5% of their liquid assets.

Surely it is a good thing to get a grasp on these various concepts in order to plan how you are investing and risks that you are ready, willing and able to take and when and what points you plan to rake and to either diversify or to use the rake for life enjoyment, rather than reinvesting.

hehe, if you can't handle the fear of losing 100% of your 10% investment, just go for a 50% investment you can at most lose 20% of.

I like it: if you have some psychological flaw keeping you from doing something you want to do, just brainfuck yourself around it.

After a long decline in price, many have understandably grown weary and abandoned the plan (even if they successfully used it during the last bull run).

No reason to do this. If followed rigorously, the plan caused selling some bitcoins at the top, and remember that it expressly forbad to buy them back even at the cheap prices that followed.

For those who only now come to BTC (or whose cost basis is <500 otherwise), the plan is still very good because bitcoin continues to be an asset with a limited downside (zero at most, -100%), but with an unbounded upside, (+100%, +1000%, +10000%). The correct way of investing is unchanged: select a small but significant enough of a stake (not 1%, not 50%+, but something in between), buy it in a quick order (DCA is a flawed concept in this style of investing), and set a rake schedule that suits your preferences.

For those who emotionally cannot handle a 100% loss, I would add a (mental) tweak: Invest 50% of your net worth to a basket that contains 10% of BTC, 10% of Monero and 80% of cash. When the cash is distributed wisely (in different currencies, jurisdictions, and banks, with some tucked in your mattress), it is pretty safe. Then you maximum loss even if BTC and XMR both go to zero, is -20%. That's pretty manageable, isn't it! The upside is still there.