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Topic: Steem pyramid scheme revealed - page 60. (Read 107058 times)

legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 1049
August 01, 2016, 09:19:08 PM
And also it seems there is no way it can be defended against a competitor which removes the stupid 50% yearly (currently 150%!) debasement of medium-term investors. Which I have a design that can do that.

Eh? They can convert STEEM => SDs => STEEM => SDs, as they see fit. SDs will even give them 10% interest.

That is not investment in Steem. There is no upside ROI for the investor coming from speculation about Steem by investing in Steem dollars which are pegged to the US dollar.

Ah well, you can't have everything. There are 3 tokens and you know one of them is debased a lot, the other is protected significantly and the other is giving you 10% interest. If you want upside potential, then you'll either trade it when low, or ride the fluctuations in the SD/STEEM markets (selling SDs when 1 or above, buying below 0.9 / 0.8, etc).
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
August 01, 2016, 09:16:32 PM
Remember that Monero slams SSDs so I am not so confident that you all are highly expert on this point. (not to say that I am either but I am thinking about the issues)

The person who literally is an expert on that (with a decade of experience developing databases for SSDs), said that particular FUD from an extremely shady competitor was "full of shit" (direct quote). (I also refuted it separately by measuring that routine laptop use generates SSD write volume that vastly dwarfs Monero's). In fact, he replied to you specifically in detail as to why your inexpert concern trolling on the matter was displaying ignorance. So why are you repeating it?

Anyway that is off topic to Steem. The blockchain can clearly scale to orders of magnitude more than current usage. Whether it runs into problems at some point is an issue, but not one for the short term, even with fairly rapid growth.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
August 01, 2016, 09:12:29 PM
And also it seems there is no way it can be defended against a competitor which removes the stupid 50% yearly (currently 150%!) debasement of medium-term investors. Which I have a design that can do that.

Eh? They can convert STEEM => SDs => STEEM => SDs, as they see fit. SDs will even give them 10% interest.

That is not investment in Steem. There is no upside ROI for the investor coming from speculation about Steem by investing in Steem dollars which are pegged to the US dollar.
legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 1049
August 01, 2016, 09:11:32 PM
And also it seems there is no way it can be defended against a competitor which removes the stupid 50% yearly (currently 150%!) debasement of medium-term investors. Which I have a design that can do that.

Eh? They can convert STEEM => SDs => STEEM => SDs, as they see fit. SDs will even give them 10% interest.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
August 01, 2016, 09:05:58 PM
You are certainly incorrect about scaling, at least on the front end portion.

When I wrote about Websockets versus REST, the scaling issue is of course on the serving end. How can a front end UI ever be a scaling problem since it runs on every client decentralized  Huh

Front end including the web server. You are still incorrect.

With enough capital, the web server can be scaled. You could read about some of the things Facebook had to develop in order to scale out.

But the devil in the details in terms of costs. A certain incorrect design decision could lead to 10 or even 100 times higher costs for the (database) servers. And that is what I am referring to.

The extra reason my point is so salient, is because afaik there is no funding for the webserver at all. Steemit.com is paying for it out of their "pre"-mine. So if the serving is 100 times more costly we are all paying for it (less funding for signups, etc).

Also scaling up to 100 million users requires special expertise. If your design is 100 times worse than it could be, they will hit their headroom sooner, putting pressure on their ability to source the expertise and figure it all out while at the same time being slammed with the exponential growth.

It is not an issue of it can't scale assuming all other factors are irrelevant. My point was about design decisions putting them behind in a race with a competitor which can scale faster, easier, and less costly.

Note I haven't evaluated their design in detail, so it is possible that my generalized assumptions have some flaw due to some detail I am unaware of. But generally speaking, what I wrote about Websockets vs. REST is the correct intuition. And I have some specific ideas in mind of how the content can be optimized in the REST case that impacts the database load by perhaps orders-of-magnitude (will know more as I dig into details of coding it).

I'm not sure whether the blockchain can scale to the necessary degree without redesign, but that certainly won''t be a problem for quite a while.

It is a problem if a competitor starts to grow at the 100 times faster rate that Ello did. In a month, Steemit's first mover advantage would already been irrelevant.

Yes but the blockchain scaling isn't the issue there.

For blockchain scaling they have at least the issue of transactions per second and DPoS's issues there.

Also they might have issues with the database employed by the witnesses that may be impacted by the decision to allow so many real-time updates to pre-existing data. Data fragmentation issues, etc..

Remember that Monero slams SSDs so I am not so confident (until you inform me otherwise) that you all are highly expert on this point. (not to say that I am either but I am thinking about the issues)
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
August 01, 2016, 08:50:42 PM
You are certainly incorrect about scaling, at least on the front end portion.

When I wrote about Websockets versus REST, the scaling issue is of course on the serving end. How can a front end UI ever be a scaling problem since it runs on every client decentralized  Huh

Front end including the web server. You are still incorrect.

I'm not sure whether the blockchain can scale to the necessary degree without redesign, but that certainly won''t be a problem for quite a while.

It is a problem if a competitor starts to grow at the 100 times faster rate that Ello did. In a month, Steemit's first mover advantage would already been irrelevant.

Yes but the blockchain scaling isn't the issue there.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
August 01, 2016, 08:49:02 PM
The main thing I disagree with there is that Bitcoin investors are almost entirely irrelevant. If it doesn't gain interest and investment from outside of cryptocurrency circles, then it is useless and will fail.

Bitcoin investors are the only source of capital while it grows from a small seed to the point where investors outside our sector would come it. We can't just jump across the ocean in one leap.

This a blockchain and crypto-currency. The investors must be comfortable with those concepts.

If you are thinking about big time funding rounds such as what Coinbase received, the problem is that the terms of their investment would be ruled by the Steem blockchain (which was not the case when they invested in Coinbase equity), which is not something traditional investors may be comfortable with. You can't just leap across the ocean.

You are committing a cardinal sin of marketing, by assuming that people change quickly. The key in marketing is to find an untapped synergy where people don't need to change what they already know and want to do.

You are certainly incorrect about scaling, at least on the front end portion.

When I wrote about Websockets versus REST, the scaling issue is of course on the serving end. How can a front end UI ever be a scaling problem since it runs on every client decentralized  Huh

I'm not sure whether the blockchain can scale to the necessary degree without redesign, but that certainly won''t be a problem for quite a while.

It is a problem if a competitor starts to grow at the 100 times faster rate that Ello did. In a month, Steemit's first mover advantage would already been irrelevant.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
August 01, 2016, 08:39:42 PM
Smooth much better if you don't cash any out and buy more STEEM POWER. Why not put your $ where your confidence is?

I'll consider it

Anyway, I never claimed Steem is perfect nor that it will clearly succeed, but it does have a big first mover advantage, isn't terrible, has decent size user base for a crypto (even factoring in the large number of scammer accounts) and is still growing. Thus, I don't think it is certainly doomed. Uncertainty prevails.

The big uncertainty is whether they will remove the quadratic vote weighting and remove the whales' voting power. If they don't do that, they are dead. And if they remove the quadratic voting, they shift their target demographics significantly so there is a lot of risk in that change/transition.

Even if they do that, they are still vulnerable to competition, primarily because Bitcoin investors will prefer one that wasn't so egregiously "pre"-mined and also one where the blockchain is not prevented by license from being forked.

And also it seems there is no way it can be defended against a competitor which removes the stupid 50% debasement of medium-term investors. Which I have a design that can do that.

In short, they probably can't make such big changes.

Those are the big picture reasons, that you apparently do not see clearly yet, but I do.

Also there are other issues that I have been mentioning such as better relevance and scaling design.

The main thing I disagree with there is that Bitcoin investors are almost entirely irrelevant. If it doesn't gain interest and investment from outside of cryptocurrency circles, then it is useless and will fail. That is the entirely of the value proposition here; I'm surprised you don't see that.

You are certainly incorrect about scaling, at least on the front end portion. I'm not sure whether the blockchain can scale to the necessary degree without redesign, but that certainly won''t be a problem for quite a while.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
August 01, 2016, 08:29:32 PM
Smooth much better if you don't cash any out and buy more STEEM POWER. Why not put your $ where your confidence is?

I'll consider it

Anyway, I never claimed Steem is perfect nor that it will clearly succeed, but it does have a big first mover advantage, isn't terrible, has decent size user base for a crypto (even factoring in the large number of scammer accounts) and is still growing. Thus, I don't think it is certainly doomed. Uncertainty prevails.

The big uncertainty is whether they will remove the quadratic vote weighting and remove the whales' voting power. If they don't do that, they are dead. And if they remove the quadratic voting, they shift their target demographics significantly so there is a lot of risk in that change/transition.

Even if they do that, they are still vulnerable to competition, primarily because Bitcoin investors will prefer one that wasn't so egregiously "pre"-mined and also one where the blockchain is not prevented by license from being forked.

And also it seems there is no way it can be defended against a competitor which removes the stupid 50% yearly (currently 150%!) debasement of medium-term investors. Which I have a design that can do that.

In short, they probably can't make such big changes.

Those are the big picture reasons, that you apparently do not see clearly yet, but I do.

Also there are other issues that I have been mentioning such as better relevance and scaling design.

Moreover, why don't you buy any? As far as I know, you've never bought any significant amount of STEEM POWER. It was all "gifted" to you (okay some effort to research and mine it, also to build your reputation which made you a good asset for them to coddle).

All of us have our confirmation biases. Yours is that you didn't risk anything consumerate to obtain your stake and mine is obvious that I want to think I can compete.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
August 01, 2016, 08:22:38 PM
[sell] before it is too late.

Does this remind anyone besides me of the wall observer thread?

Do you mean where I urged rpietila to stop leading n00bs to double-down at $700 and when I said it would decline to $150 and it did?

And that I wasn't saying that Bitcoin had no future. I am saying that Steem has no future.

No you weren't but some do and stylistically it is very similar. Substance may be different, or not.

Quote
Smooth much better if you don't cash any out and buy more STEEM POWER. Why not put your $ where your confidence is?

I'll consider it

Anyway, I never claimed Steem is perfect nor that it will clearly succeed, but it does have a big first mover advantage, isn't terrible, has decent size user base for a crypto (even factoring in the large number of scammer accounts) and is still growing. Thus, I don't think it is certainly doomed. Uncertainty prevails.

Quote
Moreover, why don't you buy any? As far as I know, you've never bought any significant amount of STEEM POWER. It was all gifted to you.

I have bought what I would consider to be a lot of STEEM as part of various trading strategies. I'm not just plainly dumping it. And FWIW, I just powered up 10K STEEM two days ago, but I'm not going to claim that is a massive increase to my investment. As I said earlier, I already have plenty, and increasing significantly from here would be a bad call even if I think it is moon-worthy.

Nothing was gifted to me either (the same can not be said necessarily of others who could have been tipped off, but I certainly wasn't). I may have found it lying around on a forum, but to be clear I did risk significant time and resources mining it. I made the decision to do that after evaluating the prospects and I wouldn't have done so had I found it to have no chance of success.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
August 01, 2016, 08:16:02 PM
[sell] before it is too late.

Does this remind anyone besides me of the wall observer thread?

Do you mean where I urged rpietila to stop leading n00bs to double-down at $700 and when I said it would decline to $150 and it did?

And I wasn't writing at that time that Bitcoin had no future. I am coming to the view about now, that Steem has no future.

Smooth much better if you don't cash any out and buy more STEEM POWER. Why not put your $ where your confidence is? All or nothing and you'd have some big balls.

Moreover, why don't you buy any? As far as I know, you've never bought any significant amount of STEEM POWER. It was all "gifted" to you (okay some effort to research and mine it, also to build your reputation which made you a good asset for them to coddle).
legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 1049
August 01, 2016, 08:02:31 PM
[sell] before it is too late.

Does this remind anyone besides me of the wall observer thread?

Only thing missing is Lambie with his ponies Tongue
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
August 01, 2016, 07:58:18 PM
[sell] before it is too late.

Does this remind anyone besides me of the wall observer thread?
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
August 01, 2016, 07:48:41 PM
probably something like $1500 or more could be in your pocket as fast as it takes to trade the crypto and cash out the Bitcoin.

We shall place this quote on a granite tablet at the nation's capital to immortalize Smooth's review of Steem.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
August 01, 2016, 07:28:21 PM
smooth I have a rebuttal to your Alexa point coming as a blog post.

In order to elucidate it clearly, I had to put some effort into collecting various charts, etc., so might as well put it on Steemit.

I hope you'll appreciate my effort, since you have the most to gain by knowing if you should be cashing out or not. You could probably do a deal with those Chinese who want to buy more, by selling some of your STEEM POWER at a discount before it is too late. I am doing you a massive favor and also will be providing a similar (but much better!) project to move your capital to which will be sustainable (and may also be work for you if you still want to be a programmer which I doubt). I think you would love to get behind something better and fairly launched. Then you would have nothing holding you back.

Hopefully you mined STEEM POWER to multiple accounts, so that you can sell individual accounts separately. If you didn't, this was an unfortunate lack of foresight.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
August 01, 2016, 06:35:16 PM
I was curious and tried to sign in (no facebook, nor reddit) and registred my email... however it makes almost 1 week and have still not receive anything back... What should I do to get an account?

Furthermore having to compile the miner... what is this?

very strange.

There are currently no email signups. You can either use Facebook, Reddit, PM me for a paid account, get mining working and mine yourself an account, or wait for other signup methods.
legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 1049
August 01, 2016, 06:34:22 PM

I didn't read your blog yet, but I agree it is all about relevance. And that is the other killer feature I am adding that Steem (the blockchain) doesn't have. Open sourcing the UI won't solve their problems.

I think it'll go something like duct-tape-it-till-you-make-it Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
August 01, 2016, 06:31:26 PM
Let's see if any whales will upvote the objective truth or not:

Quote from: xtester
The first one is the growth rate. Presently, Steemit has ~43,331 registered accounts and has grown with ~10000 new accounts during the last week(an impressive ~31,25 %)

This is a misleading interpretation of the data, because you are not accounting for the abandonment (attrition) rate of new signups.

In my opinion the best way to assess the overall trend is this:

http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/steemit.com (link may not work; if not then type in steemit.com when you get redirected to a query page)

Internal statistics are highly skewed by things like low level scammers mining $10 free accounts. But as long as web traffic is increasing and engagement statistics are relatively constant then we know the (non-attritted; active) user base is growing.

The alexa stats currently show a slowing of growth recently but still a high overall growth rate. The ranking has dropped from 50K+ to 20K over the course of a couple of weeks.

This approach will of course need to be replaced if alternate web site and/or clients take hold, but that hasn't happened yet.
sr. member
Activity: 336
Merit: 265
August 01, 2016, 06:08:56 PM

I didn't read your blog yet, but I agree it is all about relevance. And that is the other killer feature I am adding that Steem (the blockchain) doesn't have. Open sourcing the UI won't solve their problems.
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