Topic: Stephen Reed's Million Dollar Logistic Model - page 20. (Read 123218 times)

Sure technical analysis could be performed on a linear chart, but then all the trend lines added the chart by the analyst would have to be exponential and no tool I know can do that.

I suggest that linear charts are best used for brief time frames, e.g. days, in which the exponential curves are flatter, and might effectively be ignored.

He just said .. representing logarithmic growth on linear chart is nonsensical. 0.1 does not register on chart that has a scale to 1000.

I meant. Is there a technical reason?  Why do you do Technical Analysis w log vs linear?

With exponential growth already on the charts I'm not going to fight the trend.

Why do you use logarithmic scale?

I'll take that as an invitation to post another chart:

I tried my hand at a new bitcoin chart using an alternate ticker but I couldn't figure out how to plot it back to the low on the mtGox chart of 1 penny back in 2010 so I had to resort to some curve fitting on where to place the handle.

I would recommend browsing the numerous other charting efforts @ https://www.tradingview.com/?q=BITCOIN

When I visited tradingview just now writing this post, this users chart was at the top of the page and I found it informative. https://www.tradingview.com/u/CoinCrack/

I am just now to the point where pieces of Bitcoin are qualifying for capital gains here in the US so my tolerance for price decreases are high. I'm not predicting price into the $380's on these charts, but the price breakdown against the fibs as I have them fit places that as a fib retracement target.



The chart above most closely approximates the mtGox chart posted earlier in this thread.



After some curve fitting by moving the handle around on the fork I might like the steeper channel better - time will tell, let's see where a few more lows and highs form.

I have not used them much because my trading is very coarse grained. Back in April 2013, which was my best trade, I set a spread of sell orders as the prices appeared to double in the week leading up the peak. This was at Mt. Gox. Most of the sell orders got filled, I did not know where the first pullback would exactly be - who could - but I spread my buy-back orders around $120 which was a 50% retracement from $240 which was the last time I could reliably place an order on Gox that near the peak.

Bitcoin Wisdom has a lovely Fibonacci line drawing feature that I may further explore. And I have come to depend on BitDreams' charts posted occasionally in this thread.

As a trader have you tried fibonacci retracement & extension on your charts?

I use fib numbers a lot on my charts for price guidance.   Not necessarily for predictive value.

Guilty as charged. The logistic model is hand fit according to my guess as to a maximum price value of one million USD, and my placement of the two previous bubbles into the future is biased by the supposition that the next bubble will be very similar to the previous two bubbles.

I have an undergraduate degree in applied mathematics, which gives me a certain comfort with numbers. I last traded bitcoin back in the summer of 2013, mistiming the exact bottom and paying for it when I bought back in. My timing of the two previous bubble peaks has been satisfactory however, and I am considering a trade off the next bubble peak, or at a minimum a postponement of mining equipment purchases and other major bitcoin spending until the peak - which I will recognize by the simple method of counting the days for each doubling from the low. When the price looks to double in less than a week - I sell.

Of course my posts are biased because I am a bitcoin holder and want others to participate in the economy and thus lift prices. Satoshi factored in the enthusiasm of early adopters as he designed the virtuous circle that has brought us this far.

Seems like you are curve fitting along with selection bias.   Are you a statician or trader?

Summer 2014 Bitcoin Bubble - First Projection

I hand fit this simple projection by copying the April 2013 bubble and the November 2013 bubble into the future, aligning both along the logistic model trendline. The vertical line separates the current Bitstamp price series from the future hypothesis. This first iteration of the 2014 Bitcoin bubble projection supposes that the peak occurs in July - August and that the ensuing collapse is underway in September. I project the peak at 6000 USD and the subsequent consolidation price at approximately 3000 USD through year end 2014.

As the collapse of the current bubble resolves, perhaps further iterations of this projection can be more accurately placed. The crucial assumption of this projection is that the next bubble will be very similar to the previous two.

You don't have to be finished with the topic just yet. I want you to have the opportunity to have the last word.


No crimes were committed, preposterous!   

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/24/us-banks-fines-idUSBRE9BN00I20131224


What were the fines for if not criminal actions?

Marketing, legal and accounting discussion is where the dirt lies in any banking organization where the topic of conversation always begins with: is the crime worth the time? Or call it risk assessment if you need to sweep something under the rug.

http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2014/01/21/3184401/banks-profits-2013-record


So the banks paid big fines, whooped-de-do! That one or two bad profit years is now priced into the cost of doing business for future customers: Rotten to the core.

Off w their heads!   Hey I don't have any political opinions only economics.   Just stating what happened.   Why shoot the messenger?

Why would anyone give back their bonus when those were contractual obligations?   Bailouts were repaid.   Treasury received Citi stock or warrants (I forgot)  and they made 2B in profit.

There were no criminal proceedings cause no crime was committed.   You want argue ethics then I won't disagree w you.   But cite me the law that was broken

To repeat I AM FOR MORE REGULATIONS in matters of banking.   I AM FOR RULE OF LAW.   I am NOT for circumventing law,  mob rule, anarchy,  unregulated currency,  lassiez faire capitalism. 

The koolaid I drink is empiricism. I am interested in academics and how things work.   Not soapbox rhetoric

Im finished w this topic cause I don't want hijack this thread anymore

You haven't just been drinking the Kool-Aid you've been swimming in the punch bowl .... we're on a wild downward spiral of the banks and govt. making.

Recall the "too big to jail"? ... this is why justice has been denied, prosecuting individual criminal bankers, like Blankfein and Dimon would collapse the whole rotten system. MF Global? Corzine walked away uncharged after demonstrably misappropriating customer funds and physical assets worth $1 billion ... do I need to go on?

Paid back? Point to me one criminal banker who has handed back their bonuses that was known to have come directly from government bail-out checks. The rest of the money was taken from society in one form or another as the mega-banks provide zero utility, only serving to bleed the real economy to line their own pockets, It's become a mega-racket and it serves only to enrich those at the top, as can be seen very clearly when you look at long term graphs of wealth inequality and the soaring inequality since 2007-08.

Final comment. Apologies to Slippery Slope and his excellent model and discussion thread

Yes the TARP was paid back in full except for Citi of which the Treasury hold common stock of C and will make $12B profit on the TARP program on selling the Citi stock.  This is a fact.  

Nobody is stopping you for applying for loan at a bank.  If your business is so big that banks can't service you, then you go to the govt to get the loan.  The role of gov in economics is to be buyer or lender of last resort.  If they didn't provide this function there is nothing to stop a downward spiral.  

Please give me a similar loan under the same conditions and I'll have more money than I'll ever need AND pay the loan back. Will I get the loan? Nope. Did blatant criminals get the loan? Yes.

With the system such as it exists today the loan to these companies were gifts. Just not gifts of the entire amount but huge gifts none the less.

And to conclude: what you regard as the biggest shortcoming in Bitcoin is its greatest strength. So, either figure out why it is so, or leave and wait for Bitcoin to collapse. Newsflash: it won't

Without derailing the thread any further into anti-Libertarian rants from Newbies ... (strange how none of them have anti-Mao anti-Marxists rants, USA after all was founded and made great by Libertarians)

... you're wrong, they suspended GAAP and changed the mark-to-market rules to mark-to-model for the very reason that the entire mega-banking complex was operating outside the law under colour of criminality. They were insolvent and to continue trading knowingly an insolvent institution is criminal. They were not only bailed out financially by the taxpayer (the economic repercussions are all around you so have no idea how you can say "it was paid back" like some petulant child) ... they deserve not one cent of the 100x salaries because they owe society every penny and more, not just for the ridiculously misallocated bonuses, but for the massive and widespread economic destruction they have caused. Must be nice to have a bribed congress who can change the laws when you are caught involved in a massive criminal enterprise that is raping society for trillions eh?

They should have all be let go bust and begin again. As it now stands, you should be very afraid because by bailing out the incompetent and corrupt all Congress has done is double down and make a bigger bet, such that the next bust will be worse than 2007. There are no free lunches my ranting banker friend, nature always bats last and human nature owes you one.

Wait you know what a bailout is don't you?   Its a loan and its already been paid back.  Did you pay bailout? Cause I didn't and I pay tons of taxes.  I got mortgage relief through an FHA loan though. So you pissed I got bailout thru via FHA? 

You know what would happen if AIG didn't get bailed out?  Goldman would have gone under.   Do you realize the size of Goldman compared to Lehman and Bear?   Do you understand the concept of liquidity at all?

Criminals are people who commit crime.   Please cite the crime Bear or Lehman committed.    If there was crime then we already have a justice system to deal with that.  Im so sick of the moral superiority in here.  Bankers are just bankers.   Its there job to make money.   You don't like that some people make 100x your salary then that's your problem for choosing that profession.

I don't like that 2008 happened either.   And Im scared as hell that it happens again.   But I think issues are regulatory.   Heck thats the only thing you can do is change the laws.  You can't remove greed from human nature.   Bitcoin world is of equal if not more greed and corruption than banking specifically due to lack to zero REGULATIONS.   The idea that bitcoin will solve banking is a joke to anyone w a rudimentary knowledge of undergrad macro and  finance

You think Goldman Sachs will go away if bitcoin replace dollars?   If anything they'll monopolize it and ess rape you even more without regulations.   If Goldman truly believed that bitcoin replaces dollar they'll use so much money to short it, collapse the price and buy it all.   It would be too easy at the current market cap.  Fortunately for you,  they're not kiddies.   They don't care about your libertarian utopian fantasy

This is completely delusional or wantonly revisionist ... the entire system was insolvent and the taxpayer bailed them out. If you really are involved in banking how could you have missed that detail?

Goldman Sachs bonuses in 2008, (~ $20 billion worth) were paid directly out of the check that the taxpayer wrote to bail-out AIG. It was a pirate@40 pass-thru scandal only a truly evil cadre could abide by and profit from ....

They were criminal because a criminally compliant congress bailed out broke institutions to the tune of trillions of dollars stolen from the wealth of nations themselves to make bankers whole on bad bets that made the entire system insolvent. Just because they were not prosecuted does not absolve them of their criminality.