Topic: Stephen Reed's Million Dollar Logistic Model - page 23. (Read 123218 times)

You've just proved why technical analysis is akin to magic and tarrot card reading. You managed to draw up a chart that fits trend lines on an absolutely dead and not functioning exchange, and still come up with a price prediction. Chart's are nothing more then past last sale reference points. Staring at one long enough will eventually convince one of "patterns."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia

TA practitioners and sages eventually all suffer from Apophenia. They can't even help themselves at some point, they will chart a cockroach running up a wall to  look for patterns.

Understanding why the bitcoin price was unsustainable is pretty basic, 3600 coins are created daily out of thin air. In November and December those coins were worth $5million a day, miners just couldn't resist hitting the bid. When you realize 80% of the supply is held by some ~200 individuals, you quickly comprehend how easy it is to manipulate the price. Mt. Gox had no issues paying fiat out to insiders when they wanted to cashout, but everyone else was held up by compliance/funds shortage. Same thing that Bitstamp does.

The Slippery Slope Million Dollar Logistic Model, is based on the fallacy of what occured in the past must continue in the future.

The Slippery Slope Million Dollar Logistic Model, is based on the fallacy of what occured in the past must continue in the future.

As fictitious as we might believe mtGox price performance was over this past month it still played well with technical analysis. The green trend line was drawn back to the one-penny low on mtGox in October of 2010 (also coincides with 2.382 fib on the andrews fork I have tried to center on the chart). Even under all but total collapse that green dashed one-penny trend line, hinted at in an earlier post as 'your worst fears', that one-penny trendline held.

Traderview has Bitstamp exchange listed so I'll update this chart using the new symbol but for now, so long Gox charts - http://ponziunit.blogspot.com/2013/11/btcusd-using-traderviewcom-charting-tool.html :

I still think you're kinda nuts, but it's fun to keep dreaming with you during this fun ride, up, down, up, down...

You can manipulate charts/lines almost anyway you want to make a point.  I'm not saying you specifically are doing this, but you are certainly "reaching" a bit.

March 2014 Logistic Model Status

Here is the log chart for the logistic model covering 2013 and 2014 . . .



Presently the bitcoin price of $575 is significantly below the model value of $856. I share the conventional wisdom on this forum that the next Bitcoin bubble will begin in a few months as illustrated below, assuming that the next bubble is similar to the last two bubbles  . . .



The shared spreadsheet is https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c
 

I'm afraid this graphs might be a bit optimistic when it comes to this 4 years distance . In reality it might be much bigger. Also the price would go up forever, we can be sure about it, problem is when. 4 years or maybe 400 years. Price, even though at some point placed inside mathematical algorithm, still can be speculated in different ways.

Base on price from few years ago 10k for bitcoin sounds about right, problem is when.

Also, I can't afford to hire anyone smarter than me, and I won't hire anyone dumber than me. 

Are you really getting an ROI, when you figure in the time you spend setting it up and dealing with issues to etc... Just Curious to know.

No financial planner would have my goals.  If they did, they would be institutionalized.  Also, I can't afford to hire anyone smarter than me, and I won't hire anyone dumber than me. 

When you save you "must" mine, I say you "must" get a better financial planner. 

Your day job is 300k/an.  An = annually?  Is that in Lira?  Pesos?  Hungarian Floret? 

When you save you "must" mine, I say you "must" get a better financial planner. 

Mining is a crap shoot, very bimodal.  Either you win or lose money.  If you do it well, persistently, you come out ahead.  Is it worth it?  Depends on how desperate you are for more coins, I guess.  I'm pretty desperate.  My day job only pays 300k/an, and I already took out a home loan and a business loan, so to get more coins, I must mine.

Are you really getting an ROI

The Joy of Mining

The emergence of scrypt-based coins, popularized by Litecoin, has made it profitable to again earn bitcoin on my dusted-off graphic card mining rigs. I am running three rigs with a total of six 5770 cards. The operating system is Ubuntu, I run cgminer 3.7.2 and achieve about 144 KHs per card. The conversion to bitcoin is handled automatically by the pool software which heuristically chooses among various exchange-traded crypto currency coins and mines a particular network until it becomes unprofitable to mine when compared to other candidate crypto currency coins. I use TradeMyBit as its operator posts frequently on the pool forum. It is an easy upgrade from the obsolete 5770 cards to expensive but currently in stock R9 280x cards. My first one is on its way - yay!

The coinwarz web site gives a great profit calculation of daily dollar profit on each ranked crypto currency coin given hashing power and price of power. When I input the figures for a single R9 280x card, 700 MHs and 250 watts respectively, the projected Revenue / Profit (per day) for my local power usage is projected to be $15.24 / $14.54 for Tagcoin at rank number one, and  $8.70 / $8.00 for Neocoin ranked five. The actual profit is lower, chiefly due to fees and the effects of periodic coin network switching that result in stale shares and rejects.

When bitcoin prices eventually explosively rally again as suggested by the logistic model trendline, it is very likely that the most-popular-at-the-time scrypt-based coins will exceed the price acceleration of bitcoin, i.e. have a higher beta. I look forward to manually selecting coins to mine from TMB at that time for postponed exchange into bitcoin.