Topic: Stephen Reed's Million Dollar Logistic Model - page 15. (Read 123236 times)

That's a really good point, which I have not heard raised anywhere else.  So yeah, thanks for that.  I agree it's significant.

Also, just thinking thru all this lately, it occurred to me that this 10x trend has actually already repeated SIX times.

Bitcoin's history so far, starting around 2008 when Satoshi wrote the paper, I figure (roughly)...

1.) 2008-2009 price .1 cent to maybe a penny (10x)
2.) 2009-2010 price 01 cent to maybe a dime (10x)
3.) 2010-2011 price 10 cents to maybe $1 (10x)
4.) 2011-2012 price $1 dollar to maybe $10 (10x)
5.) 2012-2013 price $10 dollars to maybe $100-ish (10x)
6.) 2013-2014 price $100 range getting briefly to $1000+ (10x) (and now midrange of that)

...this is not directly linear or smooth, by any means... and the dates are not exact of course.  BUT y'know... just looking at the charts with the two or three big bubble spikes mainly visible, it's easy to overlook or forget that the pattern has SIX iterations, so far.

Maybe it's just me, but I feel better about expecting the cycle to repeat again (and again, and again?) if it's got six iterations already behind it, rather than just a couple.

Seeing if we have THREE more to go, hopefully...

7.) $1000 going to $10,000 (10x)
8.) $10,000 going to $100,000 (10x)
9.) $100,000 going to $1,000,000 (10x)

...I'm IN for the ride, LOL, and trying to convince everyone I can that they should be too, with at least just a couple hundred dollars at risk (which could very well end up ensuring they're "set for life" in just a few short years).

Anyway... man! What an amazing phenomenon, all of this is... to observe and actually be a part of!  

This is one of the most well researched and prepared threads on this forum... not to mention one of the most exciting! Thanks for the work SlipperySlope, Peter R, and everyone else who contributed thoughtful discussion.

If you are going to consider that mtGox manipulated prices to the all time high then should one also take into account that the closing price of BTC at mtGox when they shut down was very near 100$. Regardless of rumors, the truth is reflected in price.

I'll place this in bold: mtGox manipulated the price DOWN to 100$ yet the other exchanges refused to follow Instead of questioning the higher price, as a confident long term holder, I remain focused on the fact that mtGox could not take everyone down with them.

If I were looking to gain a better entry into bitcoin I'd be promoting the doubts raised by the article you are speaking of though, not that it's doing any good.

Yes, and accordingly I will think about you and your fount of good advice when I make my almost daily trek to the ATM to buy some fractional bitcoin.

If we name the zone below -0.3 as the ridiculous rock-bottom slam-dunk buy zone, we are now in the middle of it at -0.35.

Here is the latest chart of Log10 delta from trend, which is most helpful when considering relative bitcoin price bubbles . . .




The three charts and calculations of my logistic price model are published in a shared Google spreadsheet here.

Well, in the interest of contributing something to this epic thread allow me to attempt a brief summary and some (possibly totally wrong?) conclusions in light of recent events / developments we've seen in the bitcoin world.

1. Recent price jump, for no really clear reason (?) but possibly signaling the end of the recent decline / contractions and maybe a bottom, leading to next leg-up to All-Time-High, according to Slip's model, this summer?  Or at least before year-end?  Hope hope.

2. Recently revealed analysis (or disinfo?) regarding MtGox manipulation being responsible for the last two big bubbles, in fact?

Meaning IF these bubbles were actually fake-outs on the bitcoin price, then Slip's model is based on bad data and we have NO real expectation of another BIG spike any time soon?  (However, seems to me that current price of $500-ish MIGHT be "real" market price, given that Gox is dead several months already now, and it's settled down in this 400-500 range, so price gains from here on out into the future might still be likely, but at a much slower and more incremental pace, based only on bitcoin usage increasing organically?)

IF SO, seems to me that this recent attempt of BTC to get up off the floor and resume trajectory to the moon is really going to be telling.

A very important next few weeks or month or two. 

A. If the spike holds, then Slip's model is not broken and we may carry on as before with assumptions intact.  
 -or-
B. If the spike breaks, then all bets are off and we've really no idea what the future BTC price action might hold.  

BTC probably can't go to zero any more, IMHO, since there's clearly a very solid "transaction utility" to the system as it works (very well!) today, and as many bitcoin evangelists often say, "The Blockchain Cannot Be Uninvented".

But transaction utility alone might be sustained even at current (or much lower) BTC prices... putting the kibosh on this $1M BTC idea?

Thoughts?

P.S. {Edit} By the way, I personally have not decided one way or the other about this yet, but really trying hard to, LOL.  I am certainly gonna hold on to the BTC I already own *but* the big $64,000 (literally) question is whether or not to go all-in with MORE, at this last chance, rock bottom, historic, final low-price Sale Event... if Slip's model is right and true OR if the MtGox shenanigans on those bubbles means the model will be proven wrong in the future....

https://www.tradingview.com/v/vdW6XF5v/

I've never used the Three-Drivers-Pattern (purple) so I'm not sure how to utilize the data points of .97 & 1.19. Artistically speaking, August (or sooner) looks to be a target for a test of the all time high.



Bullish Flag: http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/flag.asp

The single biggest flaw I can see in your model, slipperyslope, is the final valuation of $1M per coin, a constant that is barely motivated, and could well be off by one or two orders of magnitude (EDIT in either direction :D)

Even setting the final valuation as a moving target (say, percentage of global GDP or money supply) is problematic because of the same problem again: estimating a far away final state based on very little information.

The best way I could see would be to let the final valuation be a variable, and update it continuously by setting it to the output of another model that attempts to find the best possible estimate for which share of GDP/money supply will be distributed, at equilibrium, over 21M coins (minus lost coins, plus additional coins*probability that the protocol is changed to allow mining beyond 21M).

In any case, big kudos for the (uncommon in here) rigor of your approach.

I was almost sure that Arghhh by his post didn't mean we would reach a million per coin any time soon...

Yes, I simply guessed at the $1 million maximum price for bitcoin. But whether that price is $20K or $100K or higher, the rate of growth before the mid point of adoption is approximately 10x annually according to results when I varied the model's parameters. I believe that if indeed the maximum price is $1 million then we will get there before 2020 according to my model.

Did you even watch the charts? The date we reach a million is even before 2020 and I don't know about you, but I don't plan to die before that.

I wouldn't say "we", probably our grandgrandchilren are (for us it makes no sense)...

We're a little closer to one million today than we were last week. 

So I believe my eldest son really 'saw bitcoin' tonight. Now I had given him some partial coins before, yet tonight he actually mined his own (dogecoin). He also got tipped for some writing he did on Reddit, and he just gave some away (wow). He knows bitcoin is top dog, I've tracked as he moved the wallet a half-dozen times.

The fuel for the next rally is only just building. The rising tide will lift all boats - Hodl to-da-moon bitcoin badger.

2012-5-31, -0.587 @ $5.16

On what date was the all time low of -0.58 reached?

It is not really a record. If plotted against the then-available trendline (your current trendline contains data that has not been available at some points in history), the price now is at a yearly low of -0.44 but not at an all-time low of -0.58.

We need equation for this curve. ... Some denominator-shifted sinc?

I would guess the opposite. 2014 may be more like 2012 because 2011 was the great bubble, and 2013 had two bubbles. I suppose a bubble this summer and then a drop back to $3000 through year end.

The model value for May 12, is $1259 and the recorded price of $442.5 is a record -.454 Log10 units below the trend.