Topic: Stephen Reed's Million Dollar Logistic Model - page 26. (Read 123190 times)
Thanks Slippery.
Relative Growth of Bitcoin Market Capitalization vs Cumulative Wallets
Below is the relative growth of Bitcoin market capitalization vs wallet growth. The shared data spreadsheet and chart are here.
The data suggests that over time, users are more willing to bid up the price of bitcoin. Its not simply the addition of more users that causes bitcoin's price to grow. I suppose that this is because as Bitcoin matures, the perceived risks recede and network effects drive value up for each wallet user.
From the spreadsheet the requested metric is . . .
A simple metric would be to divide the bitcoin market cap by the number of users. Anybody care to estimate the monthly number of users some time back? (I have a thread estimating the ongoing development)
Below is the relative growth of Bitcoin market capitalization vs wallet growth. The shared data spreadsheet and chart are here.
The data suggests that over time, users are more willing to bid up the price of bitcoin. Its not simply the addition of more users that causes bitcoin's price to grow. I suppose that this is because as Bitcoin matures, the perceived risks recede and network effects drive value up for each wallet user.
From the spreadsheet the requested metric is . . .
Code:
Date Market Cap per Wallet
1-Sep-2010 9.199265512
1-Oct-2010 8.31156594
1-Nov-2010 24.44845805
1-Dec-2010 21.72825755
1-Jan-2011 27.20551529
1-Feb-2011 61.77197397
1-Mar-2011 50.69862048
1-Apr-2011 34.78586103
1-May-2011 80.51902012
1-Jun-2011 94.24233851
1-Jul-2011 147.7402516
1-Aug-2011 108.7838713
1-Sep-2011 65.33783406
1-Oct-2011 39.88800029
1-Nov-2011 24.71858162
1-Dec-2011 22.83534428
1-Jan-2012 36.87445205
1-Feb-2012 39.22018699
1-Mar-2012 33.80519442
1-Apr-2012 32.65323934
1-May-2012 32.32932281
1-Jun-2012 33.52715043
1-Jul-2012 41.78422829
1-Aug-2012 58.15863505
1-Sep-2012 62.12124562
1-Oct-2012 72.73124219
1-Nov-2012 64.10586921
1-Dec-2012 70.06403119
1-Jan-2013 71.18179877
1-Feb-2013 105.0337642
1-Mar-2013 147.2198882
1-Apr-2013 349.4214284
1-May-2013 425.7523625
1-Jun-2013 394.1813518
1-Jul-2013 282.1449121
1-Aug-2013 308.5201805
1-Sep-2013 412.1366222
1-Oct-2013 389.1771141
1-Nov-2013 511.4515785
1-Dec-2013 2420.932006
1-Jan-2014 1631.277105
Thanks for the analysis. While the Global GDP is 87 Trillion. Online Sales is just 1 Trillion.
Ok, Bitcoin probably wont have significant uptake for on-line sales for some time, imho.
It can however compete immediately and directly with any electronic transfers of value information (SWIFT, FEDWIRE, etc) today, particularly across borders where capital controls and other political censorship or other interference in payment systems is taking place. Care to put a number on that for me? Thnx.
I spent some time recently reading up on how SWIFT actually works, it's a very dated system. From what I've learnt I think bitcoin would be the perfect replacement, and I think it's one of the areas it has the highest chance of success in.
My understanding of SWIFT is it's basically a secure message between banks, however the actual money needs to move too, this is not a problem if the transfer is between two large banks. However smaller banks need an intermediary bank (which takes their own set of fees). Basically both the bank sending the money and the bank receiving the money need to have accounts at an intermediary bank which settles the transfer.
SWIFT transfer around $6 trillion per day.
Thanks for the analysis. While the Global GDP is 87 Trillion. Online Sales is just 1 Trillion.
Ok, Bitcoin probably wont have significant uptake for on-line sales for some time, imho.
It can however compete immediately and directly with any electronic transfers of value information (SWIFT, FEDWIRE, etc) today, particularly across borders where capital controls and other political censorship or other interference in payment systems is taking place. Care to put a number on that for me? Thnx.
Thanks for the analysis. While the Global GDP is 87 Trillion. Online Sales is just 1 Trillion.
I have a few more back-of-envelope figures that might be relevant for the "1 million" or other saturation level choice ...
Gross World Product http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_world_product
... approx. GWP= 85 x10^12 [us$] ..... (trillion, round figure, PPP basis.)
Typical money velocity for widely held/used money http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velocity_of_money
... approx. V= 4.1
Money stock circulating, M = 18 x10^6 [xbt] ... (assume some irretrievably lost and circa 2025 stock mined)
Bitcoin price, B [us$]
Governing equation;
GWP = B.M.V
B = GWP/(M.V)
=> Upper bound case where bitcoin denominates ALL global transactions
B = 1.152 x10^6 [us$]
=> 10% GWP denominated in [xbt]
B = 115.2 x10^3 [us$]
=> 1% GWP denominated in [xbt]
B = 11,520 [us$]
(NB: this is based purely on white trade and discounts black/grey market monetary demand, including transfers that circumvent capital controls, private transfers, off-balance sheet, etc monetary TX and storage demands.)
Gross World Product http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_world_product
... approx. GWP= 85 x10^12 [us$] ..... (trillion, round figure, PPP basis.)
Typical money velocity for widely held/used money http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Velocity_of_money
... approx. V= 4.1
Money stock circulating, M = 18 x10^6 [xbt] ... (assume some irretrievably lost and circa 2025 stock mined)
Bitcoin price, B [us$]
Governing equation;
GWP = B.M.V
B = GWP/(M.V)
=> Upper bound case where bitcoin denominates ALL global transactions
B = 1.152 x10^6 [us$]
=> 10% GWP denominated in [xbt]
B = 115.2 x10^3 [us$]
=> 1% GWP denominated in [xbt]
B = 11,520 [us$]
(NB: this is based purely on white trade and discounts black/grey market monetary demand, including transfers that circumvent capital controls, private transfers, off-balance sheet, etc monetary TX and storage demands.)
Would the number of developers be of interest as well?
http://nl.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1u0qej/bitcoin_big_hit_with_developers_growing_4x_as/cedfyek
Since 11/1/13, there have been:
602 Bitcoin
187 Dropbox
100 Paypal
74 Uber
48 FourSquare
Github repos created.
Edit: found the chart where I'd first learned of this... http://blog.bitcoinpulse.com/bitcoin-big-hit-with-developers-predicting-the-future-with-github/
http://nl.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1u0qej/bitcoin_big_hit_with_developers_growing_4x_as/cedfyek
Since 11/1/13, there have been:
602 Bitcoin
187 Dropbox
100 Paypal
74 Uber
48 FourSquare
Github repos created.
Edit: found the chart where I'd first learned of this... http://blog.bitcoinpulse.com/bitcoin-big-hit-with-developers-predicting-the-future-with-github/
Whatever price one selects for the maximum, the slope of the exponential portion of the log-S-Curve is the same - as I discovered when I performed sensitivity analysis on the model. The rate of growth that we have so far witnessed will continue at the same breathtaking acceleration until it inevitably begins to rapidly taper off.
This goes back to Ray Kurzweil's persistent emphasis on the exponential nature of our singular time. You, Sir, are dead on. Thank you for the excellent work.
A simple metric would be to divide the bitcoin market cap by the number of users. Anybody care to estimate the monthly number of users some time back? (I have a thread estimating the ongoing development)
While I think that is useful metric, and I would like to see it tracked, it seems to ignore the fact that from this point forward much larger "users" are going to be in the game. Including the funds, and institutional players not to mention the already rich who will all have a much great impact/user effect than we have mostly seen to this point.
Missing something?
A simple metric would be to divide the bitcoin market cap by the number of users. Anybody care to estimate the monthly number of users some time back? (I have a thread estimating the ongoing development)
Good idea!
I can get monthly download statistics for the bitcoin software from the SourceForge code repository, and derive a cumulative total by date of the number of bitcoin wallets that indicate a relative number of users. The statistics available from blockchain.info regarding number of online wallets starts only in 2012.
The data series for total bitcoins in circulation is available from blockchain.info. Give me a little time and I will produce a graph of the suggested metric.
Thanks, that seems like a good idea.
A simple metric would be to divide the bitcoin market cap by the number of users. Anybody care to estimate the monthly number of users some time back? (I have a thread estimating the ongoing development)
Good idea!
I can get monthly download statistics for the bitcoin software from the SourceForge code repository, and derive a cumulative total by date of the number of bitcoin wallets that indicate a relative number of users. The statistics available from blockchain.info regarding number of online wallets starts only in 2012.
The data series for total bitcoins in circulation is available from blockchain.info. Give me a little time and I will produce a graph of the suggested metric.
A simple metric would be to divide the bitcoin market cap by the number of users. Anybody care to estimate the monthly number of users some time back? (I have a thread estimating the ongoing development)
Agreed that the Log(Log) graph fits recent data better, however there is no principle behind the equation as there is with a logistic model of population growth with resource constraints. The Log(Log) model suggests that prices during 2014 will reach 100000 USD by summer 2014. To me, this is not a plausible growth rate for bitcoin prices.
I believe that 2012 simply under performed and that 2013 over performed with regard to the log trend line.
I believe that 2012 simply under performed and that 2013 over performed with regard to the log trend line.
justusranvier brought up a great point in that USD purchasing power has been following an exponential decay model. Doesn't that suggest the growth should be super exponential, at least for some phase?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.4210004
Right, but the dollar decay has traditionally had a much slower time constant than bitcoin adoption ... although it could be that the two wont always be unrelated. At some point, if there is a widespread loss of confidence, and a rush out of the dollar into bitcoin (the bitexit holy grail) then the two will become very much related functions in a hyper-inflation $, hyper-monetisation BTC event. A super-exponential decay of dollar purchasing power pumping up a super-exponential rise in btc/usd price.
Agreed that the Log(Log) graph fits recent data better, however there is no principle behind the equation as there is with a logistic model of population growth with resource constraints. The Log(Log) model suggests that prices during 2014 will reach 100000 USD by summer 2014. To me, this is not a plausible growth rate for bitcoin prices.
I believe that 2012 simply under performed and that 2013 over performed with regard to the log trend line.
I believe that 2012 simply under performed and that 2013 over performed with regard to the log trend line.
justusranvier brought up a great point in that USD purchasing power has been following an exponential decay model. Doesn't that suggest the growth should be super exponential, at least for some phase?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.4210004
SlipperySlope .... there's some new work that you might like to try to fit into your Logistic model ... a super-exponential growth phase 
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.4227238
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.4227238
Agreed that the Log(Log) graph fits recent data better, however there is no principle behind the equation as there is with a logistic model of population growth with resource constraints. The Log(Log) model suggests that prices during 2014 will reach 100000 USD by summer 2014. To me, this is not a plausible growth rate for bitcoin prices.
I believe that 2012 simply under performed and that 2013 over performed with regard to the log trend line.
SlipperySlope .... there's some new work that you might like to try to fit into your Logistic model ... a super-exponential growth phase
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.4227238
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.4227238
At some point you're going to use it and be noticed. I guess it's best to prepare to be able to deal with being noticed. If you don't, watch the use of having all those Bitcoins? (Even if you don't have a job and live of your Bitcoin's you'll be noticed. At least where I live.)
That is something to be aware of. But for use, I can spend it on projects I am interested in, instead of on wealthy lifestyle. Many things out there much more important than fancy living.
Just move over here to 3rd world country.
Live like a king. No questions asked.
Live like a king. No questions asked.
OMG how can you even say something so stupid... even this little sentence totally discredits your analysis. The 80% are not "stores of value" but speculators... When the price reaches their desired level, they will sell or buy something with bitcoin, or yes, try to think of it as a store or value, but i think majority will sell for fiat, but you cannot for god sake tell at this moment that they use bitcoin as a store of value, because its not true, and if you fail to realize this, what else you do you fail to realize or what else do you got wrong :-(?
I have lots of bitcoins. Your claim that when price reaches desired level, those who have lots of bitcoins will sell for fiat, is wrong. If you have maybe few thousand dollars, and are just speculating, then yes, you can sell for fiat. But if you have hundreds of thousands, or millions of dollars of bitcoins, selling means paying taxes, and telling other people that you have so much money. It also means having your money stuck in a bank some where. At some point, it just becomes impossible to sell it all, because you can not live buying expensive cars and houses every week without being noticed. So you have to keep bitcoins in bitcoins, and only sell whatever needed to live, and maybe use some to invest in various projects.
At some point you're going to use it and be noticed. I guess it's best to prepare to be able to deal with being noticed. If you don't, watch the use of having all those Bitcoins? (Even if you don't have a job and live of your Bitcoin's you'll be noticed. At least where I live.)
Agreed, If you have that many BTC the first purchase is a damn good tax attorney, after that go live life you have won the bitcoin game.
OMG how can you even say something so stupid... even this little sentence totally discredits your analysis. The 80% are not "stores of value" but speculators... When the price reaches their desired level, they will sell or buy something with bitcoin, or yes, try to think of it as a store or value, but i think majority will sell for fiat, but you cannot for god sake tell at this moment that they use bitcoin as a store of value, because its not true, and if you fail to realize this, what else you do you fail to realize or what else do you got wrong :-(?
I have lots of bitcoins. Your claim that when price reaches desired level, those who have lots of bitcoins will sell for fiat, is wrong. If you have maybe few thousand dollars, and are just speculating, then yes, you can sell for fiat. But if you have hundreds of thousands, or millions of dollars of bitcoins, selling means paying taxes, and telling other people that you have so much money. It also means having your money stuck in a bank some where. At some point, it just becomes impossible to sell it all, because you can not live buying expensive cars and houses every week without being noticed. So you have to keep bitcoins in bitcoins, and only sell whatever needed to live, and maybe use some to invest in various projects.
Satoshi, is that you?
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