Hopefully, we will be able to cross that S2F line again in the future!
(it's not a gamble, it' s a strategy)
To be honest, considering how smart PlanB is, it doesn't seem to me to be a very wise decision on their part.
When the facts dismantle your theory, or model, the sensible thing to do is to write it off as invalid, not to keep remodeling it constantly. Although I understand that he will have invested a lot of time and effort in this issue, and giving up all that time and effort as useless is not easy emotionally.
Even PlanB came out with a concession speech and proclaimed that his interpretation of stock to flow has been invalidated by the facts, the various underlying foundational principles of stock to flow still seem to be correct, even if some of the market dynamics contributed to BTC's price performance towards having peaks that were way lower than expected and then subsequent dips that went quite bit beyond expectations.
Perhaps some real world events contribute towards facts that the establish that the projection axis has been shifted downward, but the model still might not be broken.
I consider the model to still have a quite a bit of validity in terms of figuring out various ongoing pulls on the BTC price that relate to ongoing adoption that has continued upwards price pressures based on bitcoin's supply issuance, and sure maybe the rainbow chart captures various ongoing upwards pressures in similar kinds of ways.. but the stock to flow model still has some specific cyclical aspects that are built into it that show a bit more directionality within Bitcoin's spot price relationship in connection with changes in the supply. where as the rainbow chart just attempts to explain magnitudes of deviance from the mean..but does not have attempts to show how the halvenings might have some specific influences on some of the BTC price pressures.
I am no where really close to wanting to completely negate stock to flow - or to suggest that PlanB is some kind of a god or less than a god now because he is emotional and a bit of a waffler.. hahahahaha..
I can understand some of the frustrations with his changing the model so frequently and then understanding how that might defeat the purpose of suggesting that the model had any predictive power merely because it keeps getting changed.
For sure PlanB seems to have had incorporated quite a bit of predictive power to how the 200-week moving average tended to give some guidance regarding how far the BTC price might go up, but if we end up experiencing diminished BTC price peaks, then even the 200-week moving average is not going to be moving up at as fast of a pace as had been anticipated. Even now, within the past week we had the 200-week moving average breached when it was about $22,300 and then movement 21% below the 200-week moving average with a so far price bottom of $17,953 but also seeming to take place at a weird place on the stock to flow cycle anticipations. .. including the breach of the 100-week moving average at $35k from nearly two months ago.
At this time, the 200-week moving average is still moving up at slightly less than $30 per day and is at $22,371, and for sure the BTC spot price likely has a dragging down effect on that too.. and the 100-week moving average continues to move up too (at least for now) since it is a bit over $36k, but surely we know that the longer the BTC spot price stays below either of those two averages, there is going to be dragging down effects on them either in decreasing their rate of going up and also even per haps causing them to get closer to being flat.. so it seems to me that traditional assets do like to use those kinds of longer time-frame moving average indicators, yet it also seems that PlanB's incorporation of the halveniungs into his attempts to present what is going on in bitcoin had been (and has been) an attempt to tailorize some of those traditional financial tools into bitcoin.. so for me, even if some of the specifics of the magnitude of the movement ended u being off in a variety of ways, we likely still can be informed by what the model had been showing and how far the BTC price is deviating from some of the parameters of the model.. including whether the pattern might look the same as expected (or not) while at the same time appreciating whether there might be some additional phenomena that might be existing that might need to be plugged into the model or can that additional phenomena (to the extent that it can even be identified) help to create a better model.. or do we give up completely and call planB, his model , and anyone defending either of those (including yours truly) a bunch of loonies.
I continue to have difficulties appreciating why so many folks get so worked up about the various ways that plan B is wrong and has been wrong and suggesting that bitcoiners had been mislead by information contained in his model and assertions that PlanB made i connection with the model.. blah blah blah... Oh and by the way, Plan B was not the ONLY one expecting BTC prices to go to $100k and beyond in 2021..and whether the planB ideas had subliminal effects.. I have my doubts.. even though all the time we see people putting too much credence into predictions that are intended to have probability assignments, and we also know that even if a model were to come out with 80% or 90% numbers, the 10% or 20% scenarios could end up playing out, but still would not necessarily take a way the value of having had the model/predictions..
so sometimes people will end up attributing 80% or 90% as if it meant 100% and 10% or 20% probabilities as if they were to mean zero.. hahahaha.. people can be simple (and short-sighted) like that sometimes.. but still does not mean that the model was not valuable and good even if people misunderstood it and even if the author of the model might have gotten some of the probabilities wrong or maybe even if the author seemed to have had exaggerated some of the numbers of the model because he was trying to incorporate some of the parlance of his speaking to be like normal people in their everyday speech patterns. which happens to be.. frequently speaking in absolutes.. that's what many normal people prefer to hear and want to pressure scientist into speaking the same way.. even if there might be probabilities contained therein and also when there might be some qualifiers contained therein, too... .but who wants to hear about the qualifiers? People want the punchline, even if it might end up misleading them into failure refusal to prepare (psychologically and/or financially) for scenarios beyond just the punchline scenario(s).
Definitely we do not need unlimited Satoshi because we don’t want to stabilise the prices like stable coin so surely it’s limited, so prices would hike as the time will pass on.
Of course, there are links in terms of both BTC value and BTC price towards how various things in the real world might also be limited, and surely some things in the real world are more scarce than other things, and some things in the real world are more desired than other things, too.
Bitcoin has established a price over the years that could be undervalued or overvalued in terms of what some satoshis might buy you in the future or even today depending on where and how you might try to use it.
It is not even that the current value or the future value will be agreed upon, so some folks might be battling to attempt to establish current BTC prices or even to attempt to profit if they see a difference between value and price that they believe that they can get advantage from that or if they might find some usage of bitcoin in the present or even in the future.. There are going to be differences of opinion about both value and price, too..
There are also some examples of some use cases for bitcoin that might be somewhat price neutral so for example, maybe if someone wants to send $100 to El Salvador, they might find some value in using bitcoin/or lightning network to send that value because they believe that it saves them fees over other options that they have available, but they might not care too much about the current BTC price if they are going to convert from dollars to BTC on the sending side and then back from BTC to dollars on the receiving side. Still has a connection to the real world but maybe not as dependent on bitcoin's scarcity in regards to figuring out value.
Even miners might have some of their incentives to mine based on bitcoin's scarcity, even though some of them might just want to mine bitcoin because it is profitable in their jurisdiction based on energy costs and other considerations, and the input of energy and other resources into bitcoin does also connect with the real world scarcity (or price) of energy and the availability of equipment to set up such an operation that also does not get set up on its own.. so scarcity of time and labor is actually another real world scarce input that can cause calculations regarding whether the current BTC price or expected future price (or future value) might motivate to continue to engage in mining or to conclude that the activity is not profitable enough or a way that such person wants to spend his/her own time, energies, and the various cost of inputs.