Yeah I have been thinking more and more that the cycle as we know it could very well be over. A few firsts have already happened... First time the rally lasted longer than a year (by my calculations anyway) if we see now as still a yet to subside rally. First time we saw barely 3x gain of ATH to ATH.
A big move down and a failure this year to continue gains would confirm another cycle I would say.
I can wait =)
Topic: Supercycle or Halving cycle still? - page 2. (Read 508 times)
I believe that’s true, but doesn’t the halvings reduce currency issuance, ans therefore also reduce selling pressure from the issuers, in Bitcoin, the miners?
The change is tiny. 500,000 bitcoins are traded on exchanges each day and the last halving resulted in only 900 fewer bitcoins.
Once bitcoins enter the supply, they remain in the supply. The constant increase causes a downward pressure on the price as the supply curve slides to the right. The halving only reduces that downward pressure on price and it can't explain a 10x increase in price.
Bitcoin always hit its ATH every after halving...
That statement is not correct, or it is too vague or needs too many qualifications to mean anything useful. End of story.There is no reason to associate all-time highs with halvings. Bitcoin has gone repeatedly gone to new highs regardless of the halvings. The idea that the halving causes an all-time high is a self-perpetuating myth based on confirmation bias.
- The times between halvings and all-time have typically been very long. Only the 2012 halving was followed soon after by an all-time high.
- There is no correlation between halvings and all-time highs. There were two all-time highs between the 2012 and 2016 halvings, and two all-time highs since the 2020 halving.
- The 2011 all-time high occurred before the 2012 halving.
I believe that’s true, but doesn’t the halvings reduce currency issuance, ans therefore also reduce selling pressure from the issuers, in Bitcoin, the miners?
I’m not questioning, or debating you, or saying you’re wrong, merely trying to learn.
I think that there will still be a great correction due to the end of the halving cycle.
But at the same time, I think that it is quite futile to try to time the markets by buying in exactly at the market bottom - you are simply not going to be able to do that, and the long term trajectory is clearly that we are in a crypto supercycle that will continue to be bullish for the next 5-10 years.
So don't take on leverage, keep stacking, and you will be fine regardless of where the price goes.
But at the same time, I think that it is quite futile to try to time the markets by buying in exactly at the market bottom - you are simply not going to be able to do that, and the long term trajectory is clearly that we are in a crypto supercycle that will continue to be bullish for the next 5-10 years.
So don't take on leverage, keep stacking, and you will be fine regardless of where the price goes.
Bitcoin always hit its ATH every after halving...
That statement is not correct, or it is too vague or needs too many qualifications to mean anything useful. End of story.There is no reason to associate all-time highs with halvings. Bitcoin has repeatedly gone to new highs regardless of the halvings. The idea that the halving causes an all-time high is a self-perpetuating myth based on confirmation bias.
- The times between halvings and all-time highs have typically been very long. Only the 2012 halving was followed soon after by an all-time high.
- There is no correlation between halvings and all-time highs. There were two all-time highs between the 2012 and 2016 halvings, and two all-time highs since the 2020 halving.
- The 2011 all-time high occurred before the 2012 halving.
Bitcoin always hit its ATH every after halving...
That statement is not correct, or it is too vague or needs too many qualifications to mean anything useful. End of story.This is a simple situation where bitcoin did go up last year, but at the same time the purchasing power of it didn't really changed all that much. Looking at it right now, the start of 2022 was around 40k, and start of 2021 was around 30k, that is about 30% or so increase, with "official" numbers at 7% and probably a lot higher in reality, and A LOT higher in most nations, I can easily say that it is probably like 10% to 15% increase in reality and not 30%, that is what inflation means.
But I agree with @TravelMug that we are not easy to see another all time high as the gap of the price now is at $25k and it is not easy to pump the price back on the last ATH.
Not so long ago price was stuck in $3k range and people were saying the ATH ($20k at the time) is not easy to reach since it is far away. Price went out of that range and without "pumping" reached $20k and surpassed it to reach $70k ATH. Now the same story is being repeated but at a 10x size.The thing is just because there is a pause in the rally it doesn't mean it is any harder to reach a new ATH than before.
And the same that we said before, after a new ATH at $20k, bitcoin will not go down below 5 digits, or at least $10k, but look at what happen in 2018 and during the bear market.
So it's a tit-for-tat market, or it is very unpredictable and we just go with the flow.
If we are in a bear market, then obviously the price will go down very hard. But if we are in the opposite side, then we might see 6 digits in the future.
Bitcoin always hit its ATH every after halving...
That statement is not correct, or it is too vague or needs too many qualifications to mean anything useful. End of story.
But Bitcoin always did go to a new ATH as a path to price discovery after each halving cycle. Probably because of the halving itself, and probably because of a few other circumstances, like BRRR-money printing and other inflationary policies by the Federal Reserve/Central Banks.
That's what it is always wherein a common cycle every year. Indeed it keeps improving amd getting matured because of adoption as well that keep increasing.. No one can stop it as long as there's still a lot of people keep believing how bitcoin very optimistic and legitimate..it's unstoppable despite of the situation. And everyone knows about it since the beginning..
For me it will be difficult to reach another all time high again, unless this super cycle come into fruition. But what we can see now is a bear market, not full blown, but I will say that we are in the way already.
Even I agree with you on not a full fledged bearish market, I do not think that it would be too difficult for a market like bitcoin to have another ATH from here. Because, we have seen quick bounce back many times and that way bitcoin may get into bullish and then may test a new ATH at any time.The thing is just because there is a pause in the rally it doesn't mean it is any harder to reach a new ATH than before.
Bitcoin is strongly being held around $40k levels for more than 2 weeks of time and we have seen market is turning up from that support level which must be enough witness about the strength of market to stay above $40k levels; this will definitely launch upward which must be toward $100k in near future. 
But I agree with @TravelMug that we are not easy to see another all time high as the gap of the price now is at $25k and it is not easy to pump the price back on the last ATH.
Not so long ago price was stuck in $3k range and people were saying the ATH ($20k at the time) is not easy to reach since it is far away. Price went out of that range and without "pumping" reached $20k and surpassed it to reach $70k ATH. Now the same story is being repeated but at a 10x size.The thing is just because there is a pause in the rally it doesn't mean it is any harder to reach a new ATH than before.
continued adoption will indeed greatly affect bitcoin, let alone more and more bitcoin users. many are turning their investments to bitcoin. this further adds to the volume of the bitcoin marketcap. The same cycle might happen again but with a bigger wave, the ATH $100k is still unreached and that price will certainly determine where bitcoin will go. bear markets always occur and then followed by a tremendous bull market.
The goal is the mass adoption and $100k is more possible to happen if more people started to adopt and support cryptocurrency. The cycle continues either its supercycle or halving cycle it doesn't matter since we are still heading to the top. Yes, bear market is always here since there's no straight way going up, we should climb slowly but surely, bull market will happen again very soon. But that very soon might happen after the next schedule halving?
For me it will be difficult to reach another all time high again, unless this super cycle come into fruition. But what we can see now is a bear market, not full blown, but I will say that we are in the way already. It's good that we will see some bounce throughout every quarter.
But it could be a slow and hard grind and we might see fluctuation every month that's why it's going to be hard for another all time high.
It will have a massive buying from people, especially those who see the benefits of bitcoin to them so they will start buying at a low price.
But I agree with @TravelMug that we are not easy to see another all time high as the gap of the price now is at $25k and it is not easy to pump the price back on the last ATH.
Bitcoin will reach $100k in the future, and we can wait for that while we can follow the bitcoin journey, up and down of the price and enjoy it.
continued adoption will indeed greatly affect bitcoin, let alone more and more bitcoin users. many are turning their investments to bitcoin. this further adds to the volume of the bitcoin marketcap. The same cycle might happen again but with a bigger wave, the ATH $100k is still unreached and that price will certainly determine where bitcoin will go. bear markets always occur and then followed by a tremendous bull market.
The goal is the mass adoption and $100k is more possible to happen if more people started to adopt and support cryptocurrency. The cycle continues either its supercycle or halving cycle it doesn't matter since we are still heading to the top. Yes, bear market is always here since there's no straight way going up, we should climb slowly but surely, bull market will happen again very soon. But that very soon might happen after the next schedule halving?
For me it will be difficult to reach another all time high again, unless this super cycle come into fruition. But what we can see now is a bear market, not full blown, but I will say that we are in the way already. It's good that we will see some bounce throughout every quarter.
But it could be a slow and hard grind and we might see fluctuation every month that's why it's going to be hard for another all time high.
The question that arises now is whether we will still be experiencing the bull market cycle every halving and then bear after it or will this be a supercycle like they are saying that the prices will continue to go up disregarding the fud spreading the industry? I hope to see this question timely because we are about to dip going to a confusing market direction.
I am afraid that only time could answer for this. Because, no technical analysis will be versatile enough to predict accurately about what is going to happen in near future of bitcoin market. There are equal possibilities for both bearish and bull market to happen here after even I agree with you that awareness on bitcoin is high these days which means mass adoption is happening everywhere still we cannot predict anything against whale's manipulations.So, instead of having any kind of assumption about the upcoming trend, I guess it would be always better to act according to the market situations so that you will not lose but you will get chances to make use of market trend.
continued adoption will indeed greatly affect bitcoin, let alone more and more bitcoin users. many are turning their investments to bitcoin. this further adds to the volume of the bitcoin marketcap. The same cycle might happen again but with a bigger wave, the ATH $100k is still unreached and that price will certainly determine where bitcoin will go. bear markets always occur and then followed by a tremendous bull market.
Bitcoin always hit its ATH every after halving...
That statement is not correct, or it is too vague or needs too many qualifications to mean anything useful. End of story.
halving 2012- 'super cycle' within 1 year(ATH $1.2k)
halving 2016- 'super cycle' within 1 year(ATH $20k)
halving 2020- 'super cycle' within 1 year(ATH $69k)
we have passed the super cycle and now in the slow volatile zone.
that said looking at the multiplier per cycle. we should see a 7-8x factor of the $20k ATH during the 2020-2024 halving periods
halving 2016- 'super cycle' within 1 year(ATH $20k)
halving 2020- 'super cycle' within 1 year(ATH $69k)
we have passed the super cycle and now in the slow volatile zone.
that said looking at the multiplier per cycle. we should see a 7-8x factor of the $20k ATH during the 2020-2024 halving periods
The dip today looks like it's not yet which some speculators are actually saying the price could be up by June this year as well or it may extend to a year like in 2018 bear market. Is the bear cycle also repeating?
We will gonna find that out soon. If we're going to have bloody months then that would confirm the bear market is in but as long as we're staying above $40k then nothing special about the bear market. People are exaggerating the corrections as it seems really disappointing and thinking that it's already the hellish bear market that we don't like to see. But just as the 2018 bear market, it would be seen likely from 2nd-4th quarter.
A halving cycle is obviously expected but we can anticipate for a better bull run compared to the previous year. But for a market to remain valid it must have it's high demand season and it's high supply season which regulates the movement bod price above the previous highs or below it's previous lows or better still revolving around a certain price range. But definitely we can't expect a super cycle
Bull or bear, Bitcoin is in a super cycle. Don’t believe me? Zoom out.
Zooming out is where we can see that it's not still at the bottom unlike in June last year when indicators are signaling we have reached the bottom. The dip today looks like it's not yet which some speculators are actually saying the price could be up by June this year as well or it may extend to a year like in 2018 bear market. Is the bear cycle also repeating?
Jump to: