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Topic: Supercycle or Halving cycle still? - page 3. (Read 524 times)

hero member
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January 10, 2022, 10:11:33 AM
#27
Bull or bear, Bitcoin is in a super cycle. Don’t believe me? Zoom out.

Zooming out is where we can see that it's not still at the bottom unlike in June last year when indicators are signaling we have reached the bottom. The dip today looks like it's not yet which some speculators are actually saying the price could be up by June this year as well or it may extend to a year like in 2018 bear market. Is the bear cycle also repeating?

I hope to see them wrong because I don't wanna send my coins from the cold wallet to the exchange anymore.  
hero member
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December 23, 2021, 06:22:23 AM
#26
I suspect neither is quite right.  See this thread which I started in the Speculation sub-forum on comparing the halvings: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/comparing-bitcoin-halvings-2012-to-2020-and-now-looking-ahead-to-2024-5375808

Because the vast majority of coins have already been mined (88% mined at the point of the 2020 halving) and only a tiny proportion will be mined in each epoch (~7% in the current epoch) the impact of each halving will become progressively smaller and take longer to play out - a bit like a wave decaying over time … the wave continues for a looong time but the peaks and troughs flatten out and move further apart.
legendary
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December 23, 2021, 05:49:56 AM
#25
The supercycle theory as formulated by Dan Held is not going to hold true, at least not this year. We should be clearly higher in price. This is not to say that the theory does not have a certain logic (as they all do) and that it may happen in the future.


Can you show a chart showing a super cycle by Dan Held? Because a super cycle should be the bull cycle of Bitcoin from the very beginning like this chart, https://bitcoin.zorinaq.com/price/

“At least not this year” is a wrong phrase in talking about the super cycle. It’s either still happenning, or not anymore.

Quote

As for where we are, we are in uncharted territory. No one quite knows what is going to happen to the price in 2022, what is clear is that the bitcoin price is behaving differently than previous cycles.


Bull or bear, Bitcoin is in a super cycle. Don’t believe me? Zoom out.
hero member
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December 22, 2021, 09:19:01 AM
#24
Yea I suppose thats what is happening, we are comparing/expecting this year
to be like previous halvings.

It was also in Dec 2018 where the bear market started which took so long that they call it "long winter market" that's extended to a year of a bear market. And now winter is coming once again which if this is just a halving cycle only, the price by Jan 2022 will also start crumbling.  To be optimistic in a way, because miners only get about 6.25 every block. It's going to create a very low supply for all that demands BTC too.

I want to create a new thread for this question as well but let me just insert it here in case someone will be willing to give thier views about it.
If next year the bear market starts, will it be the same as the last that was extended up to a year?
legendary
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December 22, 2021, 04:26:41 AM
#23
What exactly is a supercycle though?

Is it that the market constantly rises? or is it that there wont be a notable
prolonged Bear market?

I'm leaning toward the former in my understanding, a supercycle of bullish run, and somewhat just months of bearish and then the price will continue to go on again.


Ah so the first quarter of 2022 is really the key to whether this supercycle manifests
itself IMO




Its really hard to call whether we will stay in this halving cycle or whether we
are in a supercycle, maybe if we were hovering around the ₱100,000k now I
would be leaning towards a supercycle ... but we are not near the $100,000
mark yet...

The market is still like 10 years old, data is very young and we can't extrapolate anything from it.

We just rely on the last halving and it's subsequent bull run in 2017. Sure it might have been repeating itself every 4 years, But we can't still say and we can't predict how this run will go next year.

Yea I suppose thats what is happening, we are comparing/expecting this year
to be like previous halvings.
legendary
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Metawin.com
December 22, 2021, 03:56:27 AM
#22
I want to say halving cycle since it's hard to set expectations year after year and imo it's better to have that slow and stable growth rather than going back to what we've experienced a few years back.

On the other hand, I think a supercycle is inevitable since we're still within arms reach of another new high and we've seen how fast bitcoin recovered back then so it's only a matter of time until we see another price increase.
legendary
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December 22, 2021, 02:56:01 AM
#21
The supercycle theory as formulated by Dan Held is not going to hold true, at least not this year. We should be clearly higher in price. This is not to say that the theory does not have a certain logic (as they all do) and that it may happen in the future.

As for where we are, we are in uncharted territory. No one quite knows what is going to happen to the price in 2022, what is clear is that the bitcoin price is behaving differently than previous cycles.

legendary
Activity: 2898
Merit: 1823
December 22, 2021, 02:21:06 AM
#20
OP, a SUPER CYCLE. Open a weekly chart, use Bitstamp, it has the longest historical record of Bitcoin. Choose 200 Simple Moving Average as an indicator. If Bitcoin crashes under that indicator and never returns after a significant amount of time, then the current super cycle is broken.
hero member
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You own the pen
December 21, 2021, 11:34:04 PM
#19
The good thing about it is when the price reached a new ATH and begins to decrease after that, it won't back to the time when the price was before the halving. Right now the price has never been down to under $20,000 which is good since when the market keeps holding on whenever the price is decreasing. Because investors are following the tradition when the price of BTC is experiencing a bearish market, only a matter of days for it to recover and regain its price back. so when they see people invest again in the deep, others will follow, and there you go, successfully recovered the price again.
sr. member
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Merit: 293
December 21, 2021, 11:19:26 PM
#18
If the demand continues to go up and there's a lot of people buying or wanting to buy bitcoin then there's a possibility that we might see a supercycle happening but I don't think that we might see that honestly because the market can't just continue going up as it's bad for itself and for potential investors.
legendary
Activity: 3080
Merit: 1353
December 21, 2021, 08:22:11 PM
#17
What exactly is a supercycle though?

Is it that the market constantly rises? or is it that there wont be a notable
prolonged Bear market?

I'm leaning toward the former in my understanding, a supercycle of bullish run, and somewhat just months of bearish and then the price will continue to go on again.

Its really hard to call whether we will stay in this halving cycle or whether we
are in a supercycle, maybe if we were hovering around the ₱100,000k now I
would be leaning towards a supercycle ... but we are not near the $100,000
mark yet...

The market is still like 10 years old, data is very young and we can't extrapolate anything from it.

We just rely on the last halving and it's subsequent bull run in 2017. Sure it might have been repeating itself every 4 years, But we can't still say and we can't predict how this run will go next year.
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1268
December 21, 2021, 08:10:05 PM
#16
What exactly is a supercycle though?

Is it that the market constantly rises? or is it that there wont be a notable
prolonged Bear market?

Its really hard to call whether we will stay in this halving cycle or whether we
are in a supercycle, maybe if we were hovering around the ₱100,000k now I
would be leaning towards a supercycle ... but we are not near the $100,000
mark yet...
legendary
Activity: 3080
Merit: 1593
#1 VIP Crypto Casino
December 21, 2021, 05:24:04 PM
#15
I think we’ll still see the usual significant price rise post halving for another 1 or 2 cycles (assuming this cycle & high at 69k is over).
Once each block rewards miners with less than 1BTC we might start to see a reduction in the effect that the diminishing supply has on bitcoin. I think another 8+ years before this happens. The halving in 2024 will still create a supply shock & bull run in 2025.
legendary
Activity: 2954
Merit: 2145
December 21, 2021, 05:00:18 PM
#14
Supercycle is a narrative created by bulls to instigate FOMO. It's not realistic to think that Bitcoin can go only up for really long periods of time, because practice shows that Bitcoin market tends to always drop when the upward momentum gets lost, and I just don't see how this would change in the near future. You would need a continuous streak of positive news to fuel such cycle, a new large company or a country buying Bitcoin every week - this is not going to happen.
hero member
Activity: 1596
Merit: 502
December 21, 2021, 12:01:56 PM
#13
I am sure we will still face the bear and the bull in the next years because that will be part of the cryptocurrency. The problem is how those new generations will be ready for that time as they don't have much experience like the others who already have crypto experience. If they want to learn more details about crypto and know that the bull and the bear will be on the crypto, they will not be afraid instead will try to figure out how they can use the moment for their benefit. The key is to survive in any situation and conditions because the crypto market will always be volatile.
hero member
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December 21, 2021, 11:20:36 AM
#12
The question that arises now is whether we will still be experiencing the bull market cycle every halving and then bear after it or will this be a supercycle like they are saying that the prices will continue to go up disregarding the fud spreading the industry?
When you say 'we will still', are you asking if that will be the case in this current market cycle or if it will continue to occur for years to come? For the latter, I'll say no, the Bitcoin market is changing rapidly over the years, volatility is gradually reducing, meaning there's less price spikes and dips. A market cycle where the price bubbles up and then bursts leading to a bear period would not always be the case, but we could rather have gradual growth, which will disinterest a lot of speculators, but will open the door to more use cases for Bitcoin.

I hope to see this question timely because we are about to dip going to a confusing market direction.
What makes you think the market is about to dip?

Well if you are in the long-term chart like in the weekly, you can see the RSI indicates it hasn't yet dropped to its bottom 30. And it can only mean that it will have to go to that point before going up. AS of the moment, the situation was just like in the month of May-July this year where the price move sideways around $30K-$35K.
If it has to bounce up again, it could be in January 2022. We however still could consider it a bubble as it had not dipped to its bottom yet.

The only reason I could site that is hasn't gone too low is because more institutional investors are putting thier money on in crypto due to the FED situation. But if the big investors decide to dump because they know it has to come to the bottom before going up again, we'll be going bear for months when a la domino effect happens.

Will we see a bounce like it did in mid-July?
legendary
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Professional Community manager
December 21, 2021, 10:17:29 AM
#11
The question that arises now is whether we will still be experiencing the bull market cycle every halving and then bear after it or will this be a supercycle like they are saying that the prices will continue to go up disregarding the fud spreading the industry?
When you say 'we will still', are you asking if that will be the case in this current market cycle or if it will continue to occur for years to come? For the latter, I'll say no, the Bitcoin market is changing rapidly over the years, volatility is gradually reducing, meaning there's less price spikes and dips. A market cycle where the price bubbles up and then bursts leading to a bear period would not always be the case, but we could rather have gradual growth, which will disinterest a lot of speculators, but will open the door to more use cases for Bitcoin.

I hope to see this question timely because we are about to dip going to a confusing market direction.
What makes you think the market is about to dip?
hero member
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December 21, 2021, 10:13:16 AM
#10
The question that arises now is whether we will still be experiencing the bull market cycle every halving and then bear after it or will this be a supercycle like they are saying that the prices will continue to go up disregarding the fud spreading the industry?  I hope to see this question timely because we are about to dip going to a confusing market direction.
This could have happened so rapidly without even having to wait every half year. The market that is now in front of our eyes is no longer a market that has been stagnant and has remained silent for longer. Received a bit of bad news, the price immediately corrected, even more sensitive than we thought. Bitcoin must indeed be separated from Fud which is often claimed by state leaders, institutions or even influencers on behalf of the biggest Bitcoin holders. The fact is we can't avoid it. Prices are relatively volatile but also recover more quickly. With a cycle like this, the price of Bitcoin will not fall too deep, because they also need Bitcoin to store value. It can be seen that when the Bitcoin market is correcting, there will be a group of whales ready to make a profit. Instantly a significant increase occurred again. The $45,000+ price tag is the most common price for Bitcoin right now.
hero member
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Merit: 742
December 21, 2021, 09:37:23 AM
#9
Bitcoin always hit its ATH every after halving which we can expect its price to go up just like in 2017 and it also recurs this year. But after the next year, we also experience the bear market which is also cycling every after the bull market.
Bitcoin already hits multiple new all time highs after its halving in May 2020. It is just its current all time high which is around $69k does not satisfy investors and speculators. If all of us believe that Bitcoin will hit $100k soon, it might not hit it soon. When we all give up such dream, Bitcoin will touch it.

Quote
The adoption this year had made the new generations wake up learning how to invest and trade to make money in the crypto market. More Bitcoin holders are coming. The question that arises now is whether we will still be experiencing the bull market cycle every halving and then bear after it or will this be a supercycle like they are saying that the prices will continue to go up disregarding the fud spreading the industry?  I hope to see this question timely because we are about to dip going to a confusing market direction.
Adoption is exponentially increasing and we are witnessing more big tech companies engage more into crypto. Governments gradually have to admit advances of Blockchain technology so that we might have massive adoption, growth and legal tenders globally.

About cycle, I believe we are still in a super cycle that might reach its peak in next 4 years. After that we might have a serious correction on big scale for a superb cycle.
mk4
legendary
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Paldo.io 🤖
December 21, 2021, 08:51:13 AM
#8
Not sure if the halving cycle is going to continue like that. The biggest drops came from the first three hangings, but now the majority of Bitcoin's are already mined. The amount of btc miners get is very small now, which means that the price can't drop too low, otherwise mining won't be profitable anymore. All the large mining farms have a certain minium price for electricity, hardware and Internet. So if BTC ever drops too low we wouldn't see any new coins coming to the market. That is why the halving cycle should be not so dominant anymore.

Obviously most of the dumping doesn't necessarily need to be from miners, they could definitely mostly be from retail buyers who don't know what they're doing and just joined the hype. And once the hype dies down, newbie retail buyers dump their coins because it's crashing à la domino effect.
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