| Expected Increase | | Total Dividends |
| 30% | 0.00157759
Write this down - ALL perpetual mining "bonds" that pay based on FIXED Mh are turds and are guaranteed to lose their value. Buy "turds" ONLY if you believe that difficulty is going to drop. EskimoBob, you can't just say they are turds, and leave it at that. You have to explain or nobody will listen to you. Anyone that wants to mine or wants to buy a PMB (which is not really a bond, btw) must understand the following. The value of a PMB depends on the dividends that it pays and the dividends depend on the difficulty. Here is how the dividends are computed: Quote dividend per block = hashes per second * 25* 600 * 65535/248 / difficulty The dividend per block for 1Mh/s at the current difficulty is 0.00000018 BTC. The total dividend for 2016 blocks (the number of blocks at each difficulty) at the current difficulty is 2016 times that, or 0.00036406 BTC. I'm going to call this D. The total amount of dividends received (DT) is simply the sum of all the dividends paid forever: Quote DT = D + D1 + D2 + D3 + ... Now, we know that the difficulty continues to rise because more people are mining and technology advances. Every time the difficulty rises, the dividend falls by the same amount. In other words, if the new difficulty is 20% higher, then the new dividend about 20% lower (actually it is multiplied by 1/1.2, or 0.83). Let's pretend that the difficulty rises 20% every change. That is, Quote D1 = D / 1.2 D2 = D1 / 1.2 D3 = D2 / 1.2 ... So, Quote DT = D + D/1.2 + D/1.22 + D/1.23 + ... Luckily, Gauss (at the age of 4, believe it or not) figured out a simple formula for computing this value: Quote DT = D * (1 + 1/0.2), or 0.00218436 BTC So there you have it. If the difficulty increases by 20% every time, a 1 Mh/s PMB will pay up to 0.00218436 BTC in dividends, and you will lose money if you pay more than 0.00218436 BTC for it. The general equation for determining how much a PMB is going to pay is this: Quote DT = H * D * (1 + 1/R) H is the hashing rate in Mh/s D is the amount of dividends paid for 2016 blocks (approximately 14 days) at the current difficulty and a 1 Mh/s hash rate R is the expected increase in difficulty every 2016 blocks (if the increase is 20%, R is 0.2) Is shit hitting the fan already? Write this down - ALL perpetual mining "bonds" that pay based on FIXED Mh are turds and are guaranteed to lose their value. Buy "turds" ONLY if you believe that difficulty is going to drop. All perpetual mining bonds are expected to lose their value in the long term, given the expectation that difficulty will continue to rise over the long term. But they are bets on how fast difficulty will rise, and it is possible to buy them for less than their future value. I would be fascinated to learn of the cases where someone has made a capital gain on Mining Bonds. Please do share the numerous examples that must exist. Issuing the bonds doesn't count! But tell me, do you actually disagree with anything I actually did write? Is shit hitting the fan already? Write this down - ALL perpetual mining "bonds" that pay based on FIXED Mh are turds and are guaranteed to lose their value. Buy "turds" ONLY if you believe that difficulty is going to drop. All perpetual mining bonds are expected to lose their value in the long term, given the expectation that difficulty will continue to rise over the long term. But they are bets on how fast difficulty will rise, and it is possible to buy them for less than their future value. I would be fascinated to learn of the cases where someone has made a capital gain on Mining Bonds. Please do share the numerous examples that must exist. Issuing the bonds doesn't count! Hello everyone, I lost few coins myself with another PMB and I just want to say something as a defence for TAT. I lost coins because at the time of buying I didn't fully understand the mining difficulty concept and I was dumb enough to buy something I didn't understand completely. The 50% APR seemed great compared to anything in "real" stock market. Did you, the complainers, calculated your future dividends in case that the difficulty will increase (thus your dividend will be lower) by 15-20% every two weeks? The price of the bond is connected to this yield. For the defence of TAT: You can blame him only for offering something that the market wanted, altough he expected (or could have) that the difficulty will skyrocket, in which case the coins from the IPO could be bigger amount than the dividend sum paid in entire VIRTUALMINE existence. At the time of the IPO his PMB was the cheapest on the BTC-TC (as far as I know). The important fact is, that if you would bought mining hardware yourself, you would be in the same position (I just calculated that if I bought GPU mining rig now, the cost per MH/s would be at least two times higher than the cheapest PMB. Also the rig consumes electricity, unlike the PMB). That being said, from my short experience here on the bitcointalk I can say that TAT seems to be honest and acts according to his contract. Also I had never any issue with his ASICMINER micro shares. If you are interested in how to estimate the PMB value you can try to read Deprived Mining Speculation thread (it's a long and complicated read). Also the DMS.MINING is probably the reason why VIRTUALMINE value is falling. I had post a article a month before in this forum...that trying to tell people do not buying any PMB ,and provides very clear calculation with it. Some people was argue with me ,saying I am stupid do not understand what PMB it is .how ever this guy called Frunmp is now disappear in this forum. PMBs issuers isn't doing anything wrong, but The things is PMBs itself is not a wise decision when the market being hit by new technology. Like CPU change To GPU....during the period of switching , no one should buying any PMBs contracts. I have personally loss around 10 BTC on those contracts, what I want to say is the issuers of PMBs are not doing anything wrong ,they just exploit the contracts and take advantage over those people who do not has certain knowledge to analysis what they are buying. Is shit hitting the fan already? Write this down - ALL perpetual mining "bonds" that pay based on FIXED Mh are turds and are guaranteed to lose their value. Buy "turds" ONLY if you believe that difficulty is going to drop. All perpetual mining bonds are expected to lose their value in the long term, given the expectation that difficulty will continue to rise over the long term. But they are bets on how fast difficulty will rise, and it is possible to buy them for less than their future value.
Is shit hitting the fan already?
Write this down - ALL perpetual mining "bonds" that pay based on FIXED Mh are turds and are guaranteed to lose their value. Buy "turds" ONLY if you believe that difficulty is going to drop.
My scam accuser gets caught scamming (bonus, more sockies!): https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2550068
Agreed.. As somebody said Deprived ruined another pretty amazing pmb.. Best to view Deprived as a very astute ally. Most do for good reason. While I acknowledge that Deprived has had influence, I agree with you and totally respect Deprived. Agreed.. As somebody said Deprived ruined another pretty amazing pmb.. Best to view Deprived as a very astute ally. Most do for good reason. Agreed.. As somebody said Deprived ruined another pretty amazing pmb.. I don't want to post off-topic in TAT's thread about Deprived. We can continue this discussion in Deprived's thread or via PM.I'm thankful for Deprived's project, thread, and information in general, it helped me understand a lot about estimating a mining profit and difficulty rise. Anyway, if you are holding VIRTUALMINE, or thinking about buying it, you should check this new thread calculating the possible profits: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/mining-bonds-stocks-for-people-who-cant-do-basic-maths-240556 (or do the math youselfs).
Agreed.. As somebody said Deprived ruined another pretty amazing pmb..
Wow im really amazed with ppl whining to TAT about the bond price, it is clear to me that who ever does either didnt read the contract or didnt even come close to understanding it...
this is a bond not a share TAT has no moral obligation to keep bond price up as a president in a company would to the share holders (and even then the board of a company cant be held financialy responsible in case of failure) i lost some on mining bonds too didnt expect this sharp decline in price but thats how it goes, the terms are very clear from the start... Well.. i am sorry to hear that.. this was my first investment in life and that too in BTC.. i think it was wrong on my part to hope that an issuer would try to keep his asset valuable and keep the trust.. you are right on your part too thats why i sent a PM.. In the context of issuing and managing shares, TAT appears to be fully complying with what was offered. Don't know if its a good example, but Mark Z had/has no powers to support the price of the FB IPO, and nor should he be able to. Look how many, and how much smart money got it initially wrong. So people should not be beating themselves up too much. And at the same time, don't let what an issuer and/or forum post says, be the sole reason you decide to participate. These type of shares/bonds are essentially based on math. If the math don't work FOR YOU, the math don't work.
Well.. i am sorry to hear that.. this was my first investment in life and that too in BTC.. i think it was wrong on my part to hope that an issuer would try to keep his asset valuable and keep the trust.. you are right on your part too thats why i sent a PM..
ThickAsThieves is now outright lying - he is making up an imaginary user that have talked to him on IRC for 4 hours?!?? I never used IRC in my life! Answer this! This is important because TAT is now making up things that never happened. It very much casts his character in the true light! I am assuming that all of these accounts harassing me today are the same person that harassed me in IRC earlier. Maybe I'm wrong, but I doubt it. If I am, I apologize, but I do have the chat logs, and I wil provide them to any moderator that requires them for any kind of action. ThickAsThieves is now outright lying - he is making up an imaginary user that have talked to him on IRC for 4 hours?!?? I never used IRC in my life! Answer this! This is important because TAT is now making up things that never happened. It very much casts his character in the true light! Of course you can do that.. you just have to sacrifice your profits that you made from US! Fine.. my exact message.. CAn you please buy back my shares.. i dont want to be a part of all this trolling and idiocy.. i have 600 shares.. please buy back at 0.005 per share. Happy?? Unfortunately, I can't do that, even if I wanted to. It sets a horrible precedent, and makes me a target for harassment in the future.
Fine.. my exact message..
CAn you please buy back my shares.. i dont want to be a part of all this trolling and idiocy.. i have 600 shares.. please buy back at 0.005 per share. Happy?? Why cant you just reply to a PM man.. seriously..  Why pm, ask what you wanna ask right here. I have nothing to hide. Jump to:
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Topic: [TAT.VIRTUALMINE] - page 7. (Read 39830 times)
Nobody knows what the difficulty is going to be, so lets make a table of possible values for a 1 Mh/s PMB at the current difficulty.
