Pages:
Author

Topic: Technological unemployment is (almost) here - page 24. (Read 88255 times)

anu
legendary
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1001
RepuX - Enterprise Blockchain Protocol
market by itself simply unable to solve this problem!

Blaming it on the market is like blaming the crash of a Boeing 747 on the Navier Stokes equations. The rules of the market come from the way humans are. Which is a direct result of evolution. Which is therefore a direct result of fundamental physics. Trying to change fundamental physics is futile. Social engineering is futile, too. The only thing that could be done about the market rules is genetic engineering to change ourselves into hive animals. The question is: Do we want that?

The only people to blame are greedy bastards who don't want to share anything, e.g. to leave wage the same but reduce working hours and hire more people (now Apple have so many savings that even don't know what to do with all this money Grin)!

Nobody is hiring staff because he wants to share. You wouldn't, either. We hire staff if they produce more value for us than they cost.

hero member
Activity: 727
Merit: 500
Minimum Effort/Maximum effect
Money is the medium that controls our innovation and development, both the chain that binds us and the reward waiting at the end. Can... we truly live in a world without free automation?
legendary
Activity: 1582
Merit: 1002
In a free-market context, if big automated factories cause pervasive unemployment as a side-effect then there is no demand and the factories cease to exist. I am advocating that extreme automation is only viable in regulated planned economies: the Gov have to inflate to sustain the demand in order to avoid failures in the supply side so the machines can survive. We have built a nice society where humans only exist to justify machine work. This is madness and it is only possible with fake money.
Of course technological progress will slow down if no fiat money injected, but nevertheless won't completely stop. Moreover, without fiat money any government in the developed world will collapse within months, turning quality of the life to medieval level.
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
@bitaxed, I agree with you about monetary system. But in this topic we discuss another problem, which in fact relates to questions about the ownership on capital means of production, land and natural resources. Changing currency won't help a lot!

It is related, but probably I was not able to clarify my point of view  Tongue In a previous post I said that extreme automation is feasible but this does not mean that is economically viable... in the free-market capitalism. You assume that production is always automated only because technology allows it. Wrong, automation is function of the demand. You put this false assumption in the title of the post: technology does not produce unemployment. Automation produce reallocation of human resources and eventually unemployment. 

In a free-market context, if big automated factories cause pervasive unemployment as a side-effect then there is no demand and the factories cease to exist. I am advocating that extreme automation is only viable in regulated planned economies: the Gov have to inflate to sustain the demand in order to avoid failures in the supply side so the machines can survive. We have built a nice society where humans only exist to justify machine work. This is madness and it is only possible with fake money.



legendary
Activity: 1582
Merit: 1002
So you suggest a war against unemployment?
After all, the most prosperous states in history were always those where the government micro-managed the economy, no?
I would agree with you, but look realistically - things have changed, "Luddite fallacy" is becoming a fallacy, market by itself simply unable to solve this problem!
These micro-govt "laissez faire" countries will look as on the picture posted above because "useless people" won't just starve and accept their destiny! Bloody civil war is imminent and I think engineers/programmers/geeks will be hit by crazy crowd at most (many people see them as creators of digital inequality, attack on Google buses are recent examples). However, it is not their guilt. The only people to blame are greedy bastards who don't want to share anything, e.g. to leave wage the same but reduce working hours and hire more people (now Apple have so many savings that even don't know what to do with all this money Grin)!
anu
legendary
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1001
RepuX - Enterprise Blockchain Protocol
@anu, this image is more relevant to the scenario if no any action taken to solve tech unemployment issue! Wink

So you suggest a war against unemployment? Understandable, seing what a smashing success the war on drugs and the war on poverty was. We only need to give the government more power and everything will be fine. After all, the most prosperous states in history were always those where the government micro-managed the economy, no?
legendary
Activity: 1582
Merit: 1002
@anu, this image is more relevant to the scenario if no any action taken to solve tech unemployment issue! Wink
anu
legendary
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1001
RepuX - Enterprise Blockchain Protocol
In a capitalist system, you can be laid off. In a collectivist system, where the collective is everything and the individual is nothing, redundant individuals are disposed of.
I don't understand, what do you mean "redundant individuals are disposed of"?


This:


legendary
Activity: 1582
Merit: 1002
In a capitalist system, you can be laid off. In a collectivist system, where the collective is everything and the individual is nothing, redundant individuals are disposed of.
I don't understand, what do you mean "redundant individuals are disposed of"?

Main solution to tech unemployment in countries with state ownership of the production means will be reducing the working day (of course leaving yearly wage untouched).

J. M. Keynes who originated the term "technological unemployment" in his essay "Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren" in 1930 wrote:
Quote
But beyond this, we shall endeavour to spread the bread thin on the butter-to make what work there is still to be done to be as widely shared as possible. Three-hour shifts or a fifteen-hour week may put off the problem for a great while.

@bitaxed, I agree with you about monetary system. But in this topic we discuss another problem, which in fact relates to questions about the ownership on capital means of production, land and natural resources. Changing currency won't help a lot!
anu
legendary
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1001
RepuX - Enterprise Blockchain Protocol
If these machines are capable of replacing us, then why would they care about us or do anything to keep our species going?

The only solution I can think of is Transhumanism: We need to stay ahead of the curve and remain the smartest beings around by augmenting. Those failing to do so will go the Malthusian way.

Where would a guaranteed income come from?

In the short run: Through taxes and money printing. BIG is an economic impossibility in the long run, however. The part of the population on BIG would separate from those who create the wealth. It would lead to an Eloy/Morlock situation except that the Morlocks have no use for the Eloy and therefore would get rid of them.
anu
legendary
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1001
RepuX - Enterprise Blockchain Protocol

Technological unemployment can appear only in capitalist system. In the variant of socialism with planned economy it is impossible in principle!


In a capitalist system, you can be laid off. In a collectivist system, where the collective is everything and the individual is nothing, redundant individuals are disposed of.

So in a sense, you are right: In socialism, there will be no technological unemployment.
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
Anyone gives to the word "capitalism" a different political/emotional meaning: we go from crony-corporativist-capitalism to free-market anarcho-capitalism.
We live in mixed economies, so calm down and talk about WTF is happening to us.

We can agree that the "money" State/central-bank monopoly (i.e. fiat currency) cannot be realized in free-market capitalism. In the latter, market chooses which medium of exchange is more convenient at given time. This kind of monopoly is artificial not natural: it is enforced by law, i.e. with a gun behind your head (many do not see it). Why this monopoly exists? Is it fair? Modern "money" is the accounting system of a State. As many "public" services, the accounting system is outsourced to private corporations, in this case banks through the central bank system. These are what I call the Government in power (Money is power, politicians are our representatives to talk with the Gov). Bad investments and you lose money (power!): a very good feature of free-market economy. The Gov makes bad investments, Gov is not God, it only has the God complex. Taxes are introduced to deal with this Big-(Gov)-Problem: vital productive investments have to be taxed for recovering losses. If you understand the financial system then you know that taxes mostly cover bank interests. Call as you what this mess but it is not (free-market) capitalism.

Modern currencies are only green numbers stored in computers flowing from the top of the pyramid downwards. 

Welcome to the real World, Neo.

(P.S. Red pills are now directly dispensed in your anus when you sit down. No choice, sorry).

legendary
Activity: 1582
Merit: 1002
If these machines are capable of replacing us, then why would they care about us or do anything to keep our species going?
It is nearly impossible to predict how AI development will go, but my personal opinion is that autonomous robots and software capable to replace ~50% of workforce will appear much earlier than self-aware ("thinking") machines.

Where would a guaranteed income come from?
If you have read my posts you probably know that I prefer another solution rather than unconditional income. Address this question to it's supporters.

He was saying that the tech unemployment problem is only something that happens in a socialist system, and can't happen in a capitalist system. Thus, there is no solution for tech unemployment in a capitalist system, because such a thing simply can't happen in that system.
Technological unemployment can appear only in capitalist system. In the variant of socialism with planned economy it is impossible in principle!

@thedarklight, please post summary of your idea.
legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 1022
Anarchy is not chaos.

All proposed solutions for tech unemployment I have ever read are more or less socialist. It will be very interesting if you can to suggest market-base one. Wink

Here is my market based solution
http://darkai.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Resilience-Project-Whitepaper-Draft-3.pdf
This whitepaper is a draft. Read it and let's discuss solutions rather than dwell on the problem and political division is part of the problem. Divide and rule.

Of course I don't expect any of you to read it. You're more interested in debating politics.

I have begun to read it. You write well, and that is a good beginning. I'll post an opinion later.

Edit: I've read about half of it now, and I have to bag it for tonight. Very interesting. I haven't yet read your conclusions, but you make some good points. I won't comment on the problems I see until I have finished the paper, but so far I'm seeing a pretty good framework for debate, at the very least.

I would recommend you post it up as it's own thread, where we can pick at it and hone it.
newbie
Activity: 29
Merit: 0

All proposed solutions for tech unemployment I have ever read are more or less socialist. It will be very interesting if you can to suggest market-base one. Wink

Here is my market based solution
http://darkai.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Resilience-Project-Whitepaper-Draft-3.pdf
This whitepaper is a draft. Read it and let's discuss solutions rather than dwell on the problem and political division is part of the problem. Divide and rule.

Of course I don't expect any of you to read it. You're more interested in debating politics.
legendary
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1035
Do you really think autonomous robots are simply the tools!? They won't just augment human's strength and mind as machines did in the past but replace human workers altogether in the most sectors!

If these machines are capable of replacing us, then why would they care about us or do anything to keep our species going? Where would a guaranteed income come from?

The real problem for socialist economies is that there are simply no economical solutions for the technological unemployment utopia. Period!
All proposed solutions for tech unemployment I have ever read are more or less socialist. It will be very interesting if you can to suggest market-base one. Wink

He was saying that the tech unemployment problem is only something that happens in a socialist system, and can't happen in a capitalist system. Thus, there is no solution for tech unemployment in a capitalist system, because such a thing simply can't happen in that system.
legendary
Activity: 1582
Merit: 1002
I maintain that we have not run out of things to do, and for gain, and that we never will. The robots are tools. Who's hands they fall into will make a lot of difference in the outcome, but people will find a way to subsist.
Do you really think autonomous robots are simply the tools!? They won't just augment human's strength and mind as machines did in the past but replace human workers altogether in the most sectors!

The real problem for socialist economies is that there are simply no economical solutions for the technological unemployment utopia. Period!
All proposed solutions for tech unemployment I have ever read are more or less socialist. It will be very interesting if you can to suggest market-base one. Wink

In our planned socialist economies we are often discussing their big-problems caused by big-failures of big-govs, big-banks, big-corps. In free-market capitalism failure is not a problem is the engine.
About what country with planned economy are you telling?! After USSR collapse neoliberal capitalism became the only economic model in all developed countries.
legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 1022
Anarchy is not chaos.
There are simply no capitalist solutions for the technological unemployment problem. Period! [CUT]

Rephrased: there are simply no society based on saving (capitalist) able to conceive solutions for a problem (technological unemployment) that it will never face in free-market economy. We can conceive solutions for imaginary problems: a very good attitude, but not strictly necessary. Fortunately, for planned economies there exists capitalist solutions: bankruptcy solves technological unemployment caused by government intervention.

The real problem for socialist economies is that there are simply no economical solutions for the technological unemployment utopia. Period!

In our planned socialist economies we are often discussing their big-problems caused by big-failures of big-govs, big-banks, big-corps. In free-market capitalism failure is not a problem is the engine.



Damn you people capable of brevity!

Well said.
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
There are simply no capitalist solutions for the technological unemployment problem. Period! [CUT]

Rephrased: there are simply no society based on saving (capitalist) able to conceive solutions for a problem (technological unemployment) that it will never face in free-market economy. We can conceive solutions for imaginary problems: a very good attitude, but not strictly necessary. Fortunately, for planned economies there exists capitalist solutions: bankruptcy solves technological unemployment caused by government intervention.

The real problem for socialist economies is that there are simply no economical solutions for the technological unemployment utopia. Period!

In our planned socialist economies we are often discussing their big-problems caused by big-failures of big-govs, big-banks, big-corps. In free-market capitalism failure is not a problem is the engine.


legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 1022
Anarchy is not chaos.
Capitalist, yes. Free market? You seem an intelligent dude, so I'm not going to behead you for that ignorant remark. The only free markets in the US, and most developed nations, are referred to as "black markets" by the media. And they are indeed prosperous. The rest is regulated unto death. A great deal of the lack of labor participation in the US is due to the fact that if you try to engage in any sort of commerce without a small to large fortune backing your endeavors, the barrier to entry via licensing, inspections, necessary bribes, ad nauseam make it nearly impossible. In a free market, the failure rate would be higher, but the losses generally smaller, as the barrier to entry is essentially skill and guts.
"Free-market" is very abstract term. This is mostly true if you speak about trade barriers (during last decades most of them have been removed, allowing corporations to outsource labor to third-world countries that affected wages and employment the same way as automation).
Moreover, removing entry barriers and licensing won't significantly affect employment. It will simply increase competition in the currently-protected sectors slashing the wages and profit margins. For example, if the government will entirely remove all taxi regulations, some unemployed will get opportunity to earn living with driving own car while many professional taxi drivers will be pushed away from the market with falling fares.

Also, of note in your own reply, yes the most developed nations are capitalist. Funny how that works, isn't it? I'm not speaking theoretically when I say socialist societies eat themselves. I'm old enough to have observed it, multiple times. The Soviet Union achieved rather more than most of them, but in the end the necessary contradictions of "public" ownership, as opposed to individual ownership, led to their demise. Socialism is a beautiful concept, if you don't look too deep. It works great for ants, bees, and the Borg. But humans are NOT faceless, replaceable parts in a giant machine. Trying to make us be leads to failure.
There are simply no capitalist solutions for the technological unemployment problem. Period! Even moderate right-wingers accept this fact (you cannot call the author of the book "Lights in the tunnel" as socialist because he fully advocates market-based economic model, but nevertheless he insists to implement unconditional income TO SAVE this system). If insane right-wing fanatics (they call themselves "neoliberals" or "neoconservatives") won't change their position, they all will be killed during revolutions.

For one thing, technological advancement does not happen all at once and all in one place. Thus when a certain threshold is passed in one place, those in others observe, react, and where necessary, change course. In a truly free market, this is a quick, dynamic process. In what passes for markets now, it isn't.
World elites now mostly consist of insane neoliberals who try to hide any problems and keep status quo until the end.

Free market is not an abstract term, but it has been deliberately obscured for a long time. Primarily by the followers of the "great" John Maynard Keynes. He is one of the people that makes me wish I believed in an afterlife, because the thought of that son of a bitch rotting in hell for all eternity makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside.

For perspective, I'm coming from the Austrian school of economics, which has thus far been very consistently correct in it's predictive and descriptive ability. Keynesian economics have also been very consistent. It hasn't been right once.

However, I completely agree with your last sentence. It's a large part of why I find cryptocurrency so attractive. It's an attempted end run on the system. I don't know that it will work in the long term, but it's making them nervous. I like it when they are nervous.

I am a free market anarchist. I developed my own philosophy over several decades, so I can't point to one school of thought that defines my philosophy, but the closest would be agorism. I don't see competition as a bad thing, and in your example of taxi drivers, the best service would win out. Which is a function of both price and service. Absent the regulation, it would tend to the mean. Yes, some would win and some would lose. To say that regulation and barriers to entry have little effect on employment is frankly to ignore history completely. Even the most diehard centralist is well aware of the direct correlation there. However, "unemployment" is in itself a somewhat misleading term. I assumed it to mean, in your context, gainful work. If you mean gainful work in the service of another entity, then we have been arguing to cross purposes anyway.

I maintain that we have not run out of things to do, and for gain, and that we never will. The robots are tools. Who's hands they fall into will make a lot of difference in the outcome, but people will find a way to subsist.
Pages:
Jump to: