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Topic: Technological unemployment is (almost) here - page 26. (Read 88274 times)

full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
February 20, 2014, 01:53:19 PM
Yes, ASIMO is cheap and work great http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dKPkL2oto0 (joke). Reality check: human labor is essential for running programmable industrial robots as well as high speed production lines. Without considering how many people work to build them. Usually, automation creates unemployment, but it is more a problem of reallocating people in new jobs (I think this is THE problem...). In free market, fully automated mass production can lead to mass unemployment that means less consumers and company failures. Government intervention is necessary to run big corporations, this is why big corps pay politicians. In this sense free market fails... it fails in keeping dinosaurs alive.
legendary
Activity: 1582
Merit: 1002
February 20, 2014, 10:28:21 AM
Future generic robots cannot compete with specific machines used for automating the production. Generic robots are slow and expensive. If your highly automated factory does not deliver what the market needs, you are broke (e.g. saturated market). Such machines cannot be easily adapted to perform a different production. In any case, creating new machines or adapting the existing ones, you have a plenty of human work to do.
Nevertheless, generic robots will work faster than human workers and cost less than their wages.
full member
Activity: 126
Merit: 100
February 20, 2014, 10:02:54 AM
Your reasoning is fallacious: what you can achieve by automating a production process does not necessarily correspond to what the market needs! Even if you are able to automate something does not mean that your process is sustainable in the long run.

Future generic robots cannot compete with specific machines used for automating the production. Generic robots are slow and expensive. If your highly automated factory does not deliver what the market needs, you are broke (e.g. saturated market). Such machines cannot be easily adapted to perform a different production. In any case, creating new machines or adapting the existing ones, you have a plenty of human work to do.

You want the Government (banks) to print money in order to create a fake income for people. In this way people have the money to buy goods produced by machines. Thanks to this brilliant idea (planned economy), machines' owners (banks) does not run out of business and they can continue to govern you. Nice solution, but what is the problem?





legendary
Activity: 1582
Merit: 1002
February 18, 2014, 11:32:24 PM
I have just remembered about interesting stance Kazakhstan's Central bank took about Bitcoin.
Quote
Dalenov has also stated that should bitcoin adoption increase, there would not be any work for bankers, suggesting that the move has more to do with job protection in the country than bitcoin’s violation of any existing laws.

http://www.coindesk.com/kazakhstans-central-bank-ban-bitcoin-protect-bankers/
In some way it is true that Bitcoin can eliminate enormous army of useless banksters and some of them behave right as Luddites in the past.
kjj
legendary
Activity: 1302
Merit: 1026
February 18, 2014, 11:15:11 PM
My outcome is the only possible one.
What is your outcome? I cannot find any your messages in this thread!

He's just posting nonsense in random threads to bolster his post count.  Probably planning to send a bunch of PM spam, or run some sort of scam.
legendary
Activity: 1582
Merit: 1002
February 18, 2014, 10:17:33 AM
My outcome is the only possible one.
What is your outcome? I cannot find any your messages in this thread!
legendary
Activity: 1582
Merit: 1002
February 12, 2014, 11:42:10 PM
Or are you just assuming that capital owners would be suspicious that somehow they're getting robbed, if a lot of other people are suddenly better off?
Corporations like Apple and Google have tons of cash in savings but nevertheless dodge paying taxes even at the current tiny rates.
Do you really think capitalists will suddenly start sharing profits voluntary?!
jr. member
Activity: 44
Merit: 1
February 12, 2014, 11:07:06 PM

Of possible interest to those posting to this topic:
      https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=430364.new#new
It's a very preliminary proposal for an altcoin that would generate a guaranteed income for anyone.

This would do an end-run around governments and the whole "Tax some to pay others" mess.

Nobody of the capital owners will accept these altcoins IMHO.

Why do the capital owners accept dollars?  They are a useful medium of exchange between themselves, and they can pay workers with them.

The same will be true for the guaranteed coin, plus it has a number of positive economic advantages.   (Near zero inflation, deflation only at the rate of economic growth per capita, much faster money velocity.)   The only thing it can't do, is act as a store of value - for which the capital owners have plenty of alternatives.

Or are you just assuming that capital owners would be suspicious that somehow they're getting robbed, if a lot of other people are suddenly better off?
legendary
Activity: 1582
Merit: 1002
February 09, 2014, 09:54:28 AM
You're from China? I Thought TOR bridges that you add to the TOR bundle made it work?
No, I am not from here. But if you will make some research you will find that Chinese authorities frequently update blacklist of the TOR nodes and bridges, so you have to know some hidden bridges to be able to connect to the TOR network from China.
legendary
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1035
February 09, 2014, 01:49:22 AM
Tech-savvy geeks may be, but vast majority of the ordinary people won't be able to bypass China's great firewall (solutions "from the box" like TOR bundle don't work here).

You're from China? I Thought TOR bridges that you add to the TOR bundle made it work?
legendary
Activity: 1582
Merit: 1002
February 08, 2014, 11:03:51 AM
Interesting facts from the recent U.S. jobs report - while total labor force participation rate rose slightly, for the white men it have fallen. I can assume that only crappy jobs with minimum wage have left (automation has lesser impact on service jobs now, but it won't last forever). Some whites can think these jobs are not even worth for them so simply drop out from the labor force if they have some other income to live (parents, disability benefits, wife's job etc). However in long term it is disastrous because white men traditionally was a core of the middle class and their drop out from the labor force can cause severe downward spiral (because this demographic group used to buy goods and services from labor intensive industries - homes, cars, luxury etc).

legendary
Activity: 1582
Merit: 1002
February 07, 2014, 11:16:02 PM
Why would it be fragmented? We already have the technology to roll out a global mesh net. Its just that no one wants to use it yet.
I don't know exactly, but I think it will be virtually impossible for ordinary citizens (not the corporations or governments) to maintain worldwide mesh network.

And people can still easily get porn in China?
Tech-savvy geeks may be, but vast majority of the ordinary people won't be able to bypass China's great firewall (solutions "from the box" like TOR bundle don't work here).
legendary
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1035
February 07, 2014, 10:26:09 PM
Bitcoin won't work if the Internet will be fragmented.

Why would it be fragmented? We already have the technology to roll out a global mesh net. Its just that no one wants to use it yet.

Porn is already blocked in China, and what?!

And people can still easily get porn in China?
legendary
Activity: 1582
Merit: 1002
February 07, 2014, 06:44:34 PM
The more the powers fight it, the more decentralized it will get, until the only way to block it is to stop it at the source for every anonymous person using it.
Bitcoin won't work if the Internet will be fragmented.

Besides, the powers will very quickly lose all their power shortly after they cut off all their citizens' porn.
Porn is already blocked in China, and what?!
legendary
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1035
February 07, 2014, 04:29:28 PM
This will happen only if the unemployed will be killed but not the bourgeoisie and tech elite (as history shows, it is very unlikely).

It doesn't matter who gets killed. Fewer available employees = higher paying jobs.

Do you really think the Internet will continue working and/or Bitcoin/TOR/anonymizers won't be blocked after revolutionary forces will take the power!?

Of course! The more the powers fight it, the more decentralized it will get, until the only way to block it is to stop it at the source for every anonymous person using it. Besides, the powers will very quickly lose all their power shortly after they cut off all their citizens' porn.
legendary
Activity: 1582
Merit: 1002
February 05, 2014, 03:54:32 PM
I have no idea what an intelligent entity with a brain/processing hardware of the size of a skyscraper would be valued at. It might be able to stop any and all attackers just by talking to them after reverse-engineering their thought patterns, or by creating a virus that kills them, or by manipulating some of them to fight the rest, or by altering society to depend on it, or any of millions of other methods.
If you have ever taken an AI course you must know that developing an intelligent agent (robot) able to "live" in the competitive environment is much more complicated task than developing the AI for "friendly" conditions. Respectivly, the robots replacing most workers in manufacturing and services will appear decades earlier than military robots able to suppress riots the of unemployed.
legendary
Activity: 1036
Merit: 1002
February 05, 2014, 02:02:22 PM
There is still time guys .. chill.

And once there isn't, chances are no unaugmented human will have a say in what happens next. Their productivity would be so low in comparison that they can't even revolt efficiently.

History is not a useful comparison as the past elites weren't that much smarter than their followers. True higher intelligence is an insurmountable opponent. Numbers usually don't play a role when facing a sufficient gap in knowledge and technology.

A well-educated human is valued at hundreds of uneducated humans today, at almost any task, civil or military. I have no idea what an intelligent entity with a brain/processing hardware of the size of a skyscraper would be valued at. It might be able to stop any and all attackers just by talking to them after reverse-engineering their thought patterns, or by creating a virus that kills them, or by manipulating some of them to fight the rest, or by altering society to depend on it, or any of millions of other methods.

Bottom line: we have little idea what happens if machines surpass humans in general mental tasks. It's quite possible that the first one undergoes an intelligence explosion and seals the fate of the solar system or more. If that happens, I just hope the person who programs it chooses the goals wisely.
full member
Activity: 128
Merit: 101
February 05, 2014, 01:43:11 PM
There is still time guys .. chill.
legendary
Activity: 1582
Merit: 1002
February 05, 2014, 11:39:39 AM
If that happens, supply of labor goes down, demand for labor goes up, whatever jobs still remain have their wages go way up.
This will happen only if the unemployed will be killed but not the bourgeoisie and tech elite (as history shows, it is very unlikely).

Also, one way in which history won't repeat itself is that people with money (in bitcoin) will actually be able to leave and take their money with them, instead of having all of it seised at the border.

But likewise we won't need to start with janitorial jobs, because all our money won't get confiscared at the border, with us only being able to take $300 with us.
Do you really think the Internet will continue working and/or Bitcoin/TOR/anonymizers won't be blocked after revolutionary forces will take the power!?
legendary
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1035
February 05, 2014, 11:22:10 AM
@Rassah, history repeats itself and soon there may be new civil war if no action taken to resolve tech joblessness problem! This time it can be 1000x times bloodier than it had been during Russian revolution and civil war.

If that happens, supply of labor goes down, demand for labor goes up, whatever jobs still remain have their wages go way up. Also, one way in which history won't repeat itself is that people with money (in bitcoin) will actually be able to leave and take their money with them, instead of having all of it seised at the border.

Quote
Also you won't have any chances to start with janitorial job in the countries where capitalist and tech elites will save the power because they simply won't need human to do these entry-level jobs! Grin

No, that's true. But likewise we won't need to start with janitorial jobs, because all our money won't get confiscared at the border, with us only being able to take $300 with us.
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