Topic: Technological unemployment is (almost) here - page 36. (Read 88285 times)
Why is there no 'false dilemma' poll option? I think what the 2nd or 3rd poster said is right - all automation does is make manufacturing cheaper, which only means the product gets cheaper for those who get their jobs displaced.
Planned economy = central command economy (as opposed to market which distributes decision power to all participants)
People are competitive by nature. Central planning brings most alpha-types to the center. There they consolidate power and draw disproportionate benefits for themselves and their support groups. Ideas threatening the status quo are outlawed. Security and stability are emphasized. Large security apparatus is built to protect the state.
Eventually central planers find ways to chose & groom their successors, which usually turn to be next in kin. Gradually a narrative develops praising the elite for its unique skills & wisdom. An aristocracy is born.
People are competitive by nature. Central planning brings most alpha-types to the center. There they consolidate power and draw disproportionate benefits for themselves and their support groups. Ideas threatening the status quo are outlawed. Security and stability are emphasized. Large security apparatus is built to protect the state.
Eventually central planers find ways to chose & groom their successors, which usually turn to be next in kin. Gradually a narrative develops praising the elite for its unique skills & wisdom. An aristocracy is born.
Unfortunately a planned economy can't work. If you plan the entire thing and the smallest detail doesn't line up with "the plan" then how does the rest of the plan adjust? This was tried a lot in the USSR (5-year plans) but always failed. Additionally, I'm not sure how you plan an economy without everyone being on welfare (i.e. provided for by the government). Wouldn't their wages, or alternatively their means of subsistence, need to be part of the plan?
Planned economy is not the future.
Production on demand is. Just like with a 3d printer , you dont central-plan what comes out of it, but instead you have a direct access to the means of production.
Hmm, don't know where you got your statistics from, but these say otherwise. It's a chart of total global labor force, employment, and unemployment from 1948 to present
I wrote
All global statistics support my point of view. Since last 30 years or so ( depending on the country ). Not since 1948.
Second your statistic is not representative since it is in abolute numbers.
Global population 1980 : 4,435 billion
Global population 2013 : >7 billion
57% increase.
workforce 1980 : 100 000
workforce 2013 : 140 000
40% increase
Beside your data has no source attached and it seems it is not what you suggested it is. There is nowhere word global written on it
Another thing it looks like your data sucks. How the hell labor force is constant since the last 8 years ( even dropping ) , Global population increased like 500 millions or so.
You dont even understand what this data represents , no wonder you have no clue.
Note that technology has been booming, jobs have been getting replaced, population has been increasing, and yet unemployment has remained fairly constant. So, jobs replaced by technology were apparently being replaced by new jobs.
Nope , you don't understand the data you presented.
And some of the jobs were replaced perhaps not all.
And the only thing you need to have a problem is when jobs disparaging faster then they are created ( which is now )
If one can get away with working only 1-2 hours/day, and relax the rest of the day, why would he riot? If capitalism and the free market are allowed to work their magic unadulterated by government ineptitude, this would be the end result -- an incredibly high Standard of Living:Work ratio.
Oh another free-market delusion.
Sorry capitalism require to work longer hours !!!
If there is much more supply of labor then demand ( due to highly advanced technology , no need for unskilled workers etc. )there is always someone that will be willing to work longer hours for the same pay because he is forced to via reality of the system ( no wage = starvation )
And thus the wage collapse happens ( which is exactly what is going for like 30 years or so in developed countries ). More supply of labour then demand due to globalisation and women enetring workforce = lower real wages , longer hours , more unemployment etc and stupid economy aka capitalism collapse
This is how market actually work. It is a cruel world because it is competition based , not some fluffy wonderland
Liberals focus a lot on "employment", but they miss the point: The goal is in fact to work as little as possible, yet reap the highest rewards -- the standard of living:work ratio. And that today in the USA is the highest it has ever been anywhere in the history of the world. Government subsidies -- minimum wage, welfare, food stamps, etc. -- they give fish rather than teach to fish -- and thus distort incentives and the market, and ultimately lead to a lower SOL:work ratio.
I think most people in this thread see only one (and the most horrible) form of socialism - welfare state, which now unfortunately dominates in most EU countries and being increasingly pushed in the US. Its formula is very simple: rob (tax) wealthy - give to idlers! Of course in the long run it cannot lead to any prosperity!Another form of socialism is planned economy, which is only one sustainable model for some nations that for the unknown reason cannot successfully live in the market conditions. It may be some genetic traits, mentality etc but always when you try to establish laissez-faire policies here, these countries return to the pre-modern level. Before USSR collapse some African countries had a planned economy and rather high quality life, but now they are fully impoverished. Without oil and gas revenues Russia also would be at the level of Sierra Leone now.
Also note that technology advance and automation will continuously reduce number of people belonging to the "creative elite" class in free market, winner-takes-it-all will become more and more widespread.
Unfortunately a planned economy can't work. If you plan the entire thing and the smallest detail doesn't line up with "the plan" then how does the rest of the plan adjust? This was tried a lot in the USSR (5-year plans) but always failed. Additionally, I'm not sure how you plan an economy without everyone being on welfare (i.e. provided for by the government). Wouldn't their wages, or alternatively their means of subsistence, need to be part of the plan?
I would like to see some examples of the African countries you indicated had a high standard of living while the USSR was in existence. I suspect the state they are in now is either a direct result of involvement with the USSR (and the fallout from its collapse) or events since then have caused the issues and true "laissez-faire policies" were never really tried. I would be thrilled if you could prove me wrong on that.
Lawyers: obsolete Machine learning algorithms going through all the law books on the planet analyzing all case histories, looking for all viable avenues.
Doctors: obsolete Watson supercomputer deployed across the planet.
Scientists: obsolete Automated research centers, slicing dicing staining, robotic probes roaming the planet.
Police: obsolete robots incapable of corruption patrolling the streets, running on machine algorithms to predict crime before it happens.
Teachers:obsolete Online pre programmed courses teaching people whatever they wish to learn.
Military:obsolete Robots control the battlefield stronger faster smarter, incapable of PTSD, emotionless cold machines assessing and dolling out the appropriate response to a threat.
Cooks:obsolete Automated machinery designed to cook any meal you like is already available.
Government:obsolete The internet can already bring about world wide direct democracy.
Programmers:obsolete Machine learning algorithms and A.I. systems with neural chips on neural networks constructing any program required.
People:obsolete
Doctors: obsolete Watson supercomputer deployed across the planet.
Scientists: obsolete Automated research centers, slicing dicing staining, robotic probes roaming the planet.
Police: obsolete robots incapable of corruption patrolling the streets, running on machine algorithms to predict crime before it happens.
Teachers:obsolete Online pre programmed courses teaching people whatever they wish to learn.
Military:obsolete Robots control the battlefield stronger faster smarter, incapable of PTSD, emotionless cold machines assessing and dolling out the appropriate response to a threat.
Cooks:obsolete Automated machinery designed to cook any meal you like is already available.
Government:obsolete The internet can already bring about world wide direct democracy.
Programmers:obsolete Machine learning algorithms and A.I. systems with neural chips on neural networks constructing any program required.
People:obsolete
Skynet is patiently waiting...
But, can you really automate neurosurgery/heart surgery in the next year?
Studying neurosurgery takes >10 years and hundreds thousands USD, therefore even theoretical possibility to automate this profession during now-enrolling students' lifespan (next 40-50 years) can have significant effect! 
Secondly, have you noticed labor force participation leveled off last years even in absolute numbers (population continued to grow nevertheless)?
Two important things to note about the figures you quote
Most of the growth in participation rate in the last 60 years has come from bringing women into the workforce. That reversed to a massive extent, at least in the USA, in 2007, and hasn't recovered.
- The growth in labor force stopped in 2007 - this appears to be unprecedented in the data
- The labor force is measured in absolute numbers - a much more meaningful benchmark is the % participation rate
Most of the growth in participation rate in the last 60 years has come from bringing women into the workforce. That reversed to a massive extent, at least in the USA, in 2007, and hasn't recovered.
Uh, yeah, we had a severe global economic collapse, followed by increased regulations, capital seizures, and austerity measures. We didn't just invent "technlogy" in 2000's. What we did have is a huge increase in outsourcing.
And sure, women entered the workforce in USA, and maybe in Europe, in 1950's, but women have been in the workforce pretty much constantly in USSR and many other parts world through the 1900's and prior.
Another form of socialism is planned economy, which is only one sustainable model for some nations that for the unknown reason cannot successfully live in the market conditions. It may be some genetic traits, mentality etc but always when you try to establish laissez-faire policies here, these countries return to the pre-modern level. Before USSR collapse some African countries had a planned economy and rather high quality life, but now they are fully impoverished. Without oil and gas revenues Russia also would be at the level of Sierra Leone now.
Though I agree with what your post on the whole, just a warning. When making comparisons, check what you are comparing against. Sierra Leone is among the top ten diamond producing nations and a major producer of gem-quality diamonds, also rich in other minerals. Thus being rich in natural resources doesn't guarantee the country can't be impoverished...
If it weren't for these air travel would have improved and gotten cheaper over the past 30 years, instead it is stagnant.
Say honestly, would you fly with ultra-cheap deregulated free-market Kamikaze Airlines ?! 
I think your question is tongue in cheek, but my answer is yes. Because if in my hypothetical laissez faire world Kamikaze Airlines got funded, started up, instilled faith in people, got customers, flew safely consistently, got better, faster, and cheaper -- if it were able to do all that, it means that it had been austerely vetted by the free market every step of the way, and the standards of the people are real, meaningful, they vote with their pocketbook; they are not standards by a committee of bureaucrats. So it would have proven itself an airline worthy of my business, despite a questionable name.
Take a look at a few industries/entities with heavy government intervention and "regulation" in the name of safety and consumer protection: airlines, healthcare, USPS, FDA, USPTO -- all paragons of inefficiency and ineptitude, all stagnant for decades, all wasting billions of taxpayer dollars. For at least one of these examples we have a private sector analogue... Fedex. You tell me -- would you rather send something of value via Fedex or USPS?
This so called "regulation" serves no purpose other than to line the pockets of politicians, and the hidden costs to society in the form of slowed innovation and progress are 1000 times greater than that... e.g. costly, time-consuming, and unpleasant air travel, the healthy subsidizing the obese, lost mail and rude counter service, delayed life saving drugs and devices, and barriers to entry for would-be innovators and inventors.
I'm very much a capitalist and libertarian, but how will people handle rioting in the streets from the unemployed?
If one can get away with working only 1-2 hours/day, and relax the rest of the day, why would he riot? If capitalism and the free market are allowed to work their magic unadulterated by government ineptitude, this would be the end result -- an incredibly high Standard of Living:Work ratio.
Another interesting chart to think about (look at the right side)!
If it weren't for these air travel would have improved and gotten cheaper over the past 30 years, instead it is stagnant.
Say honestly, would you fly with ultra-cheap deregulated free-market Kamikaze Airlines ?! completely wrong because even if I can fish, the govt only gives out a certain number of licenses to be able to fish.
try to think a bit deeper than accept trite platitudes.
try to think a bit deeper than accept trite platitudes.
I agree that there are numerous industries that are extremely distorted b/c of government meddling by requiring licenses and innumerable regulatory hoops be jumped through etc. -- e.g. airlines, sports on TV, doctors. If it weren't for these air travel would have improved and gotten cheaper over the past 30 years, instead it is stagnant. NBA players would not get paid 20 mill, but rather much less. And doctors would be better and faster, rather than mostly elitist luddites like they are now.
But there are numerous industries where, fortunately, government meddling is absent or at least minimal. Those are still meritocracies, and in those subsidies hurt, they do not help.
Hmm, don't know where you got your statistics from, but these say otherwise. It's a chart of total global labor force, employment, and unemployment from 1948 to present
Two important things to note about the figures you quote
- The growth in labor force stopped in 2007 - this appears to be unprecedented in the data
- The labor force is measured in absolute numbers - a much more meaningful benchmark is the % participation rate
Most of the growth in participation rate in the last 60 years has come from bringing women into the workforce. That reversed to a massive extent, at least in the USA, in 2007, and hasn't recovered. See http://earlywarn.blogspot.com.br/2013/02/employmentpopulation-ratios.html for an interesting take - the whole blog is a valuable resource with some good thoughts on technological unemployment also.
Personally I am fairly convinced of the technological unemployment hypothesis, and think that even without strong AI there will be less and less things that only humans can do as time goes forward. I don't think this is necessarily a bad thing provided we can solve the massive inequality problems that are being caused by the increasing share of value of capital vs labor.
If we assume everyone is born (economically) equal (incorrect assumption, but a nice normative one at least. I'd be interested to hear the libertarian argument against us being born into equal circumstances/opportunities) all that each of us has to offer is our labor. We accrue capital from there - some more adeptly than others. If capital is more able to beget capital than labor is, then those that begin with a head start (ie own capital) will only see that head start increase, and those without capital will only fall further behind.
Redistributive economics is anathema to your average libertarian, but if my hunches about technology leading to increasing capital share of value is correct, what do we do about it?
My personal preference is a universal basic income. This would require high taxation, but I don't see how capitalism will survive without something like this to stimulate consumption.
Hmm, don't know where you got your statistics from, but these say otherwise. It's a chart of total global labor force, employment, and unemployment from 1948 to present
At first, population size in the U.S. have grown significantly also, so your chart is not representative (you must look at the percentage, not absolute numbers). Secondly, have you noticed labor force participation leveled off last years even in absolute numbers (population continued to grow nevertheless)?Programmers:obsolete
Programmer will be the last profession automated! 
You know if we really pushed it, we could automate every single job on the planet in the next year.
Lawyers: obsolete Machine learning algorithms going through all the law books on the planet analyzing all case histories, looking for all viable avenues.
Doctors: obsolete Watson supercomputer deployed across the planet.
Scientists: obsolete Automated research centers, slicing dicing staining, robotic probes roaming the planet.
Police: obsolete robots incapable of corruption patrolling the streets, running on machine algorithms to predict crime before it happens.
Teachers:obsolete Online pre programmed courses teaching people whatever they wish to learn.
Military:obsolete Robots control the battlefield stronger faster smarter, incapable of PTSD, emotionless cold machines assessing and dolling out the appropriate response to a threat.
Cooks:obsolete Automated machinery designed to cook any meal you like is already available.
Government:obsolete The internet can already bring about world wide direct democracy.
Programmers:obsolete Machine learning algorithms and A.I. systems with neural chips on neural networks constructing any program required.
All we would have to do is learn everything these professions do and just script it into a program with machine learning algorithms to methodically improve their preformance.
If we can do it, I think we should. Go immediately straight into a Autonomous Corporation controlled model or a resource based economy.
after all it is only a matter of time, we can do this now... It will only take one person scripting their entire profession into a database with machine learning to automate them.
Edit: here are a couple examples I've seen over the years.
A.I. Law
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21829175.900-ai-gets-involved-with-the-law.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/05/science/05legal.html?_r=0
Police
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2437206/Police-tackle-burglars-muggers-using-Minority-Report-style-technology-tackle-future-crime.html
Cooking
http://www.bonappetit.com/entertaining-style/pop-culture/article/videos-of-robots-that-cook-pancakes-pizza-burgers-and-more
Military
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_robot
Doctors:
http://www.theverge.com/2013/2/22/4016888/ibm-watson-could-replace-doctors-disrupt-healthcare
http://www.it.bton.ac.uk/staff/lp22/cs237/cs237medicalxsys.html and this one is from the 80's; The Golden age of A.I.
Programmers: Sorry man, they got an app for that too. I have no doubt... that those A.I. that are capable of programming are already out there, they're just classified.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjVDd_MDP2Q
http://primaryobjects.com/CMS/Article150.aspx
Writers
http://allthingsd.com/20130605/the-c-i-a-invests-in-narrative-science-and-its-automated-writers/
Lawyers: obsolete Machine learning algorithms going through all the law books on the planet analyzing all case histories, looking for all viable avenues.
Doctors: obsolete Watson supercomputer deployed across the planet.
Scientists: obsolete Automated research centers, slicing dicing staining, robotic probes roaming the planet.
Police: obsolete robots incapable of corruption patrolling the streets, running on machine algorithms to predict crime before it happens.
Teachers:obsolete Online pre programmed courses teaching people whatever they wish to learn.
Military:obsolete Robots control the battlefield stronger faster smarter, incapable of PTSD, emotionless cold machines assessing and dolling out the appropriate response to a threat.
Cooks:obsolete Automated machinery designed to cook any meal you like is already available.
Government:obsolete The internet can already bring about world wide direct democracy.
Programmers:obsolete Machine learning algorithms and A.I. systems with neural chips on neural networks constructing any program required.
All we would have to do is learn everything these professions do and just script it into a program with machine learning algorithms to methodically improve their preformance.
If we can do it, I think we should. Go immediately straight into a Autonomous Corporation controlled model or a resource based economy.
after all it is only a matter of time, we can do this now... It will only take one person scripting their entire profession into a database with machine learning to automate them.
Edit: here are a couple examples I've seen over the years.
A.I. Law
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21829175.900-ai-gets-involved-with-the-law.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/05/science/05legal.html?_r=0
Police
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2437206/Police-tackle-burglars-muggers-using-Minority-Report-style-technology-tackle-future-crime.html
Cooking
http://www.bonappetit.com/entertaining-style/pop-culture/article/videos-of-robots-that-cook-pancakes-pizza-burgers-and-more
Military
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_robot
Doctors:
http://www.theverge.com/2013/2/22/4016888/ibm-watson-could-replace-doctors-disrupt-healthcare
http://www.it.bton.ac.uk/staff/lp22/cs237/cs237medicalxsys.html and this one is from the 80's; The Golden age of A.I.
Programmers: Sorry man, they got an app for that too. I have no doubt... that those A.I. that are capable of programming are already out there, they're just classified.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjVDd_MDP2Q
http://primaryobjects.com/CMS/Article150.aspx
Writers
http://allthingsd.com/20130605/the-c-i-a-invests-in-narrative-science-and-its-automated-writers/
All global statistics support my point of view. Since last 30 years or so ( depending on the country ).
Global
Real wages down
Labor participation rate down
Labor income share in GDP down. ( This was an iron division between labor share and capital share that was stable for centuries until computers arrived )
Amount of people working in private businesses down ( trend of last 10 years ). Many people hired in administration ( hidden unemployment )
More people working part time , less people working full time. ( scewing statistics of true unemployment , in many countries someone working 8 hours a week is not counted as unemployed )
Record low investments into new employees , record high investments into equipment.
Global
Real wages down
Labor participation rate down
Labor income share in GDP down. ( This was an iron division between labor share and capital share that was stable for centuries until computers arrived )
Amount of people working in private businesses down ( trend of last 10 years ). Many people hired in administration ( hidden unemployment )
More people working part time , less people working full time. ( scewing statistics of true unemployment , in many countries someone working 8 hours a week is not counted as unemployed )
Record low investments into new employees , record high investments into equipment.
Hmm, don't know where you got your statistics from, but these say otherwise. It's a chart of total global labor force, employment, and unemployment from 1948 to present
Note that technology has been booming, jobs have been getting replaced, population has been increasing, and yet unemployment has remained fairly constant. So, jobs replaced by technology were apparently being replaced by new jobs.
Sure, if you just look at your country, labor participation may be down, businesses are shutting down and leaving, people are going to work at fast food and other part time jobs because all good jobs moved away. This got especially worse since 2008, when economies of your and other major countries somewhat crashed, and tons of new regulations were put in place. However, if you look at the rest of the world, that's where all those closing businesses and jobs moved to. So in there view, they went from crappy jobs such as subsistence farming, prostitution, dusty literal sweatshops, and more recently phone support, to the kinds of things you are complaining about having to do now, which in their view is infinitely better.
Technology didn't just arrive and start taking away jobs in mid 2000. And yours is not the only country in the world.
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