Topic: Tennis League All Thread - page 326. (Read 203654 times)

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I wonder why it is taking so long for a decision to be made regarding the new details?

Timelord, is there pressure on the immigration minister to make a decision on this,
given its still "open"?

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In other news ^{to help mix up the discussion}
Emma Raducanu had a really poor match today against Rybakina in the Sydney International
tournament today, losing in less than an hour 6-0, 6-1. Thats dissapointing a week before
AI starts, ok Rybakina is a good player seeded 9 in the tournament but I expected a better
result for Emma

You're forgetting that a court case decision can be overturned if it turns out (for example) a person has purgered themselves in the evidence they gave.  (or, as another example, failed to provide a full account (i.e. such as their travel details) when required).

The exemption to play was made at a State Level and although most don't like it, was made in accordance to the guidelines, so the AO and Vic Health can't be found to be at fault.


No.  Please don't go there.  

This comes down to Djokovic's truthfulness on his arrival card.

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I've never placed a wager on Djokovic, make of that what you will.

Betting against Djokovic is like checking your luck. He's the talk of the country. Now the spread of COVID-19 related information have diminished due to the news about Djokovic. Now opinion polls were conducted around the country. There were more opposition than supporters. Particularly supporters doesn't disclose their identity whereas the opposing people showed their identity to the world.

Most of the people's statement is why should there be two standard for the rich and famous.

I think the crowd won't treat him any differently than the fans at the US Open in New York last year, where they were booing him at every match just because of his past behavior at this venue. The guy is going for his 21st record breaking win, so there will also be some hostility from Federer/Nadal fans.
Funny thing is Kyrgios was saying while all this was going on last week they should let Djovokic play in this tournament even though he will be playing immunized just like some athletes in other sports are doing now. ie Aaron Rodgers.

I don't ever bet on Djokovic to win, as everyone knows he will beat almost everyone, almost all of the time. Even if he is 2 sets down in a first to 3 set match, it is likely that he will come out the winner.
I'm sure the immigration visa issue will have unsettled him, and if he does play in the AO then the fans will surely be hugely against him... but even with all that, I think I still wouldn't bet on him to lose, as he probably has the mental strength to fight through it.

Basically I just don't bet on Djokovic matches.

The strategy on this bet is to go in with what I am willing to risk/lose to begin with, and then lay/sell parts under way in the tournament. You have a lot of room with gigantic odds like this and in a QF the odds will be slashed massively depending on which opponents remaining. Betfair offer liveodds on outright winner until the last ball is played so thats not a issue.

Ruud is certainly best on clay but I think its a understatement to call him a mediocre hard court player anymore.
2021 was a massive breakthrough season for the Norwegian on hard court and he ended the season with a 27-10 winning record including one ATP title. His serving game improved a lot during the 2021 season on hard court. Up from 27th to 8th on the ATP ranking.
He still have a long way up to the Djoko and Medvedev (and Zverev) but if he have margins on his side in the AO I think a QF, and maybe even a SF, can be within reach for Ruud

True, remember betting on Djokovic with that huge handicap and I almost question myself if he can really cover that.

But after the first set and if he really won big, I knew that by the time the second is over, that handicap can be cover by Djokovic. And even if he losses the second, I know that he can get back into the match win the game with some points to spare for the spread.

No matter how this situation around Djokovic ends, I would say that in this story, everyone has lost a lot, on credibility, reputation etc.
The Australian Tennis Federation has tried to bypass the rules around the entry of unvaccinated tennis players.
Djokovic again proved to be a very irresponsible person because it is obvious that after the positive finding on Covid he continued to socialize with people, even children and that he potentially endangered them. It is also obvious that for Djokovic his personal attitudes and thoughts are more important than the general rules.
It is very unusual that it turned out that the Australian government made an illegal decision in the Djokovic case, and that it seems that the reasons behind that decision are political reasons, ie the upcoming elections in Australia.
In the end, instead of talking about tennis and sports, we deal with politics, lawsuits and hearings and demonstrations in the streets.
How will it be for other tennis players in this tournament after all that has happened and how will the fans react?
This will definitely not be a normal tournament, and tennis will be less important than political games and lawsuits.

In case your local media are not reporting the latest twists and turns in the saga, the Australian Immigration Minister is keeping open the option of deporting Djokovic for three years after it came to light that on his arrival card he signed a declaration that he had not traveled (from with-in Spain - as listed on his arrival form) since the 16th of December for 14 days but media here and overseas are now posting photographic evidence that on or after the 18^th/19^th of December, 2021, Djokovic traveled to Serbia from Spain (when he'd declared he hadn't traveled) and there are posted photos of Djokovic unmasked and failing to social distance on a number of occasions during the time he declared he was in isolation.

Being Deported would probably mean refused entry to the USA, UK and other countries for the duration (three years) he is deported from Australia - essentially for lying on his arrival card concerning his travel whilst covid infected.

Should it come to that.

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Novak Djokovic updates: Serbian still waiting for government decision on deportation as Australian Open looms — as it happened

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-11/novak-djokovic-tennis-australia-immigration-border-force/100748954

By Bridget Judd Posted 13h ago 13 hours ago , updated 3h ago

I can't imagine any bookie would allow you to cash out Ruud for serious profit after progressing few round in the tournament. He is excellent clay player but only mediocre on hard courts. I expect him to loose against first proper opponent. He does not have that something needed to beat better players on hard.

Berettettini could be a good punt since he has the game to win even against top players on good day. I don't expect him to do that well but if stars align he could.

Auger Alisaime is perfect player for playing handicaps on outsider. He often has problems with lower ranked players and he makes problems for higher ranking ones. There is much more money to be made on him just betting in every match.

For me only contenders are Djokovic, Zverev and Medvedev and I give big advantage to Djokovic since it is BO5 matches, if they were BO3 I would give advantage to Zverev and Medvedev but that extra set gives Djoko so much security and time enter into his opponent mind and break his game. I don't think he will have a problem with supporters and even if he does he will get used to that in early matches.

@dittoup, This AO is gonna be harsh for him. The fans are already enraged with him and he lost his warmup time in detention. Overall, seems like Djokovic is gonna have a hard time in this tournament.

@bitbollo, I think I slightly disagree with you. Yes, he didn't forget playing. He won't even forget playing even he plays after a 5-year break but sports is all about consistency and staying warmed up. There is a reason why the pros practice a lot.

Even in this case, despite Djokovic missed some days of full training this not means he "forgot" how to play tennis.
Moreover the firsts matches of each tournament is something easy to play for a top player and it's really rare see some unlucky game. It is like a warm up and not more.
I don't know if this year can be the chance for an outsider,  a better "picture" will be available after some games.

I do not know how all of this affected him physically and if he has enough time left to prepare himself for the tournament. Still - he is the main favorite to win it - he always is in Australia.

Considering everything that has happened, I really wish he does win it - although that would mean he will surpass Federer in the all-time best list. But hey, he would have done it at some point during the next few years anyway.

@dittoup I feel you’re underestimating his desire and strength to win this tournament, because Djokovic thrives under pressure and this situation will only motivate him to win the title.


@babygun while there’s a good chance the crowd maybe against him, but then again what if the crowd sympathies for what’s happened to him and supports him, either way when he wants to win he doesn’t let anything stop him so for me he’s yet the favourite to win this tournament.

Djokovic is mentally strong but this is something that no person has experienced before... If he can participate, he will probably be booed all match long; he is used to it for some extent, but this year could be 10x more worse. So I wouldn't put my money on him, I tend to agree with dittoup and that Medvedev will be the man to beat.

I am very surprised that Djokovic still trading under 3 in odds as outright winner in AO. Betfair went up from ~2.5 to 2.8 and now down at 2.7 again.
No matter how mentally strong a person is these last days will have a hugely negative impact on his focus. Can you imagine being locked up in detention and going through this huge rollercoaster as a warm-up to a Grand Slam. Not to mention all the negative press and criticism he received over the last days. And this is just the beginning- "if" he play he will have the crowd against him, instead of with him as he is used to, throughout the tournament.
I have huge respect for Djoko as a tennis player but I cant see how he has 35%-40% chance to win the AO this year.

From a betting perspective I think the right thing this year is to go for the long shots. They have a better chance of coming through in a Grand Slam than ever.
Some of the long shots are really deep, so a good strategy is to load up with the intentions of "lay" a good part of the stake underway in the tournament.

Ruud is trading @330 on Betfair atm. Insanity. Long shot indeed but no way he should be 25 times higher, than for example Nadal (@13), with today's standing. Ruud was outstanding last season.

Berrettini (@110) is always up there. His level is good enough to match all the big guns. If he can find his serving game he will he deadly. Had a decent match against Medvedev last week where he lost in 3 sets.

Tsitsipas @45 is pretty crazy. Have you ever seen the odds on him that high? He is totally out of shape tho so cant see him going far. But the quality is more than enough

Zverev have the chance of a lifetime. But he is so unpredictable. 100 to 0 to 100 in no time. Never know with him. Lost in 3 sets to  Aliassime last week. @5 not worth it.

Nadal @13? Why? The way he grind and struggle last week against mid-players say a lot. When he meet the big guns deeper in the tournament he will be out in a couple of matches.

Medvedev @3.5 going to be the man to beat. And most likely also the winner. But he tend to struggle with heat and mental when things goes wrong way.

Rublev (@95) Aliassime (@65) both worth a few bucks too.

I think Ruud and Berrettini will be profitable this year if you sell parts of the stake deeper into during the tournament

This situation really does not paint Djokovic. You can treat vaccination as you like, but endangering other people knowing perfectly well about a positive test result is not worthy of such a great player and, accordingly, thanks to this, a public figure who influences his behavior and serves as a role model for other people. It turns out that Djokovic and his entourage cynically took advantage of a medical exception to the rules and forgery for the sake of participating in the tournament and saw it all perfectly. There are no winners and losers in this story, and any outcome of the case will leave a feeling of some disgust from the behavior of all parties.

Ah but Trofo will be be able to handle the possible hostility of the audience?

If things start to go wrong will he be able to handle it? possibly, he isnt #1 for nothing.

He could be good for an outright win alright, I'm thinking Medvedev will be waiting for
him at some stage.

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Nick Kyrgios has tested positive today for COVID, thats a pity for him for his home GS.

He is not planning to leave the country, quite the opposite. he is in Melbourne training with Goran Ivanišević. If he stays my bet goes on him, he will have something to prove and he would be top favorite even without that.

That positive test from 16th of December is either fake or he is really being a firs class idiot regarding covid situation. I am all for freedom of choice regarding vaccination but I can't believe somebody with positive test would be careless enough to mingle with the people and participate in social activities.

I think the '3 year ban' thing is just media sensationalism. It's probably a rule for general immigration rejections, but this is a special case, and if he gets banned I'm sure he'd be allowed back in the following year (subject to vaccine rules, of course).





Again I don't know if this is the media playing it up a bit. It may be that he did the test on the 16th, but didn't get results back until some days later. Maybe he knew, maybe he didn't, but I'm reluctant to criticise him on this as I'm not sure of the situation.