Topic: TH1BTC Speculation Thread - Bitfinex Cloud Mining Contract - page 9. (Read 14250 times)

Very interesting, thanks for the post; I'll have to look into it.

Though CEX isn't short-able, my main issue with doing so would be that (like you said), CEX a permanent contract - if buyers keep the pricing high despite dwindling payouts, you could be right and still see a loss.

My previous thread about how the TH1 contract gains value from the ability to short it:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitfinex-th1-contract-hot-potato-theory-794060


I'm shorting this asset. I think it is grossly overpriced and will only mine around 0.85-0.95 BTC.  It does get extra value from your ability to lend it out, however I think that value will decline as the contract value declines and as Bitfinex issues more shares.  Though Bitfinex hasn't issued more shares in several days - so it is possible that they have changed their policy.

It is very puzzling that the value of TH1 has increased over the past seven days as during that time it should have mined and lost 10% of its value.

The TH1 mining contract has been mining "lucky". It has mined more shares than it would be expected to do so given its hash rate and the difficulty.  This combined with the decline in the BTC price (which will cause some miners to shutdown) may explain part of the increase in TH1 value.  But I would think that it would slow the decline in value, rather than actually increase the TH1 price.

It looks like GHS at Cex.io has also increased in price over the past seven days. Over the past seven days Cex.io had 2200 (BTC) volume for GHS, whereas Bitfinex had 470 TH  (or around 600 BTC) volume.  So the GHS contract might be dominating the market. That said, it is a permanent contract (assuming they don't increase the fees to the point of killing it off) whereas TH1 loses all of its value in 77 days.

This thread is for the discussion of the value of TH1BTC mining contract on Bitfinex that lets you buy 1 THs of mining power that expires on Dec 15, 2014.  They launched the contract on Sept 15, 2014 with 100 contracts and have since added shares.

Description of the Asset:
https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/mining_stats

Current number of shares: 600.

Order Book:
http://bfxdata.com/orderbooks/th1btc.php

BitcoinWisdom Difficulty tracker and prediction:
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

BitcoinWisdom Mining Calculator:
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/calculator

Coinplorer difficult prediction:
https://coinplorer.com/Charts/Difficulty/BTC

Another Bitcoin Difficulty graph set:
http://bitcoin.sipa.be

CryptAnalysis Bitcoin Difficulty Predictor:
https://cryptanalys.is/difficulty/bitcoin_btc.php

BitBet "Difficulty over 41 billion by November":
http://bitbet.us/bet/1050/btc-difficulty-over-41bn-before-november/

Another Bitcoin Mining Profit/Loss Calculator:
http://aleks1k.github.io/bitcoin-calculator/

Havelock Bitcoin Difficulty Derivative:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/havelock-bitcoin-difficulty-derivative-bdd-430137
https://www.havelockinvestments.com/fund.php?symbol=B.MINE

Similar Mining Contracts
-Cex.io -GHS: https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/cexio/ghsbtc - very expensive
-Cointerra - http://mining.cointerra.com/shop/ - as low as $999/THs - but delivery in Q1 2015
-Hashnet - https://hashnest.com - very high maintenance fees
Note: there are a lot of mining contracts and companies that claim to be producing miners which aren't trustworthy or will fail to deliver on schedule.

List of TH1BTC trades (only includes recent trades)
https://api.bitfinex.com/v1/trades/th1btc

BFXData
Order Book: http://www.bfxdata.com/orderbooks/th1btc.php
Swaps: http://bfxdata.com/swapstats/th1.php
Self-moderated: I will delete off-topic posts.