less than two months
Don't worry, this thing will still be going down in another month, IMO. The bear market may not be confrimed yet, but it will be.
Then we have finally reached an understanding I can live with
.Let's see again in a month or two.
Topic: The Bear Market is officially...OFF?!? - page 13. (Read 29279 times)
Don't worry, this thing will still be going down in another month, IMO. The bear market may not be confrimed yet, but it will be.
Then we have finally reached an understanding I can live with
.Let's see again in a month or two.
Where is the "widespread pessimism"? Other than this thread and your posts I'm not seeing much.
Read the thread. This has already been gone over.
What about lower lows
Not necessary. A simple 20% drop in the dow over 2 months is enough to be considered a bear market.
Definition of 'Bear Market'
A market condition in which the prices of securities are falling, and widespread pessimism causes the negative sentiment to be self-sustaining. As investors anticipate losses in a bear market and selling continues, pessimism only grows. Although figures can vary, for many, a downturn of 20\% or more in multiple broad market indexes, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500), over at least a two-month period, is considered an entry into a bear market.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearmarket.asp
Where is the "widespread pessimism"? Other than this thread and your posts I'm not seeing much.
What about lower lows
Not necessary. A simple 20% drop in the dow over 2 months is enough to be considered a bear market.
Definition of 'Bear Market'
A market condition in which the prices of securities are falling, and widespread pessimism causes the negative sentiment to be self-sustaining. As investors anticipate losses in a bear market and selling continues, pessimism only grows. Although figures can vary, for many, a downturn of 20\% or more in multiple broad market indexes, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500), over at least a two-month period, is considered an entry into a bear market.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearmarket.asp
That said, I believe we will be testing 80 and 50 again in the short to mid term.
less than two months
Don't worry, this thing will most likely still be going down in another month. The bear market may not be validated yet, but it will be.
less than two months
Don't worry, this thing will still be going down in another month, IMO. The bear market may not be confrimed yet, but it will be.
and:
Quote
Investopedia explains 'Bear Market'
A bear market should not be confused with a correction, which is a short-term trend that has a duration of less than two months. While corrections are often a great place for a value investor to find an entry point, bear markets rarely provide great entry points, as timing the bottom is very difficult to do. Fighting back can be extremely dangerous because it is quite difficult for an investor to make stellar gains during a bear market unless he or she is a short seller.
A bear market should not be confused with a correction, which is a short-term trend that has a duration of less than two months. While corrections are often a great place for a value investor to find an entry point, bear markets rarely provide great entry points, as timing the bottom is very difficult to do. Fighting back can be extremely dangerous because it is quite difficult for an investor to make stellar gains during a bear market unless he or she is a short seller.
+1
and:
Quote
Investopedia explains 'Bear Market'
A bear market should not be confused with a correction, which is a short-term trend that has a duration of less than two months. While corrections are often a great place for a value investor to find an entry point, bear markets rarely provide great entry points, as timing the bottom is very difficult to do. Fighting back can be extremely dangerous because it is quite difficult for an investor to make stellar gains during a bear market unless he or she is a short seller.
A bear market should not be confused with a correction, which is a short-term trend that has a duration of less than two months. While corrections are often a great place for a value investor to find an entry point, bear markets rarely provide great entry points, as timing the bottom is very difficult to do. Fighting back can be extremely dangerous because it is quite difficult for an investor to make stellar gains during a bear market unless he or she is a short seller.
I'm sorry, I don't see a downtrend on the one-month chart.
How so?
Quote
Definition of 'Downtrend'
Describes the price movement of a financial asset when the overall direction is downward. A formal downtrend occurs when each successive peak and trough is lower than the ones found earlier in the trend.
Describes the price movement of a financial asset when the overall direction is downward. A formal downtrend occurs when each successive peak and trough is lower than the ones found earlier in the trend.
I just made a comment based on your sentiment argument lol...thats all buddy haha
ah, sorry. thought you were evolve when answering. my bad.
I'm sorry, I don't see a downtrend on the one-month chart.
How so?
About sentiment: yes, it's got a lot less bullish, the hype has settled down. That doesn't imply the sentiment is now "increasingly pessimistic" as the definition of bear market says.
The fact that the highs are dropping shows the increasing pessimism. The highs aren't going up because people don't believe that they can sell them for as high of a price as they could last month. In other words, the price that people think they can sell bitcoins for is going down, so people will only buy back in at a lower price.
Quote
Definition of 'Bear Market'
A market condition in which the prices of securities are falling, and widespread pessimism causes the negative sentiment to be self-sustaining. As investors anticipate losses in a bear market and selling continues, pessimism only grows.
A market condition in which the prices of securities are falling, and widespread pessimism causes the negative sentiment to be self-sustaining. As investors anticipate losses in a bear market and selling continues, pessimism only grows.
I'm sorry. But to fit the current situation to this definition is more than a stretch. I feel no pessimism (let alone widespread) about falling prices, mostly hope (to be able get cheaper coins).
In what way? Prices are falling, and market sentiment is definitely down (even if you personally arent pessimistic) compare post in this forum to a month ago.
Prices are falling?
Sentiment bearish?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/market-sentiment-index-poll-april-69029 (68% bullish, 32% bearish for april)
We are in May if you did not notice lol
I did, but I couldn't find a more recent poll and you "falling prices" have started April 10th.
Is this all you got? ;-)
I just made a comment based on your sentiment argument lol...thats all buddy haha
Prices are falling?
Outside of the short-term rally over the past few days? Yes.
The longterm trend you exhibited suggests a further downward correction. Could you explain-- when did we break out of the current downtrend?
trends depend on timeframe.
I'm sorry, I don't see a downtrend on the one-month chart.
Quote
Sentiment is definitely much lower.
About sentiment: yes, it's got a lot less bullish, the hype has settled down. That doesn't imply the sentiment is now "increasingly pessimistic" as the definition of bear market demands.
I'm not convinced.
However, running the risk of outrage for bringing a technical topic into a speculation thread
Not at all, it is definitely something that has to be considered when we are looking at price. Mining cost vs production is something I would consider in fundamental analysis.
In what way? Prices are falling, and market sentiment is definitely down (even if you personally arent pessimistic) compare post in this forum to a month ago.
The graph shows a nice consolidation pattern. Within the last month we've seen tops and bottoms, each time with less variation from the mean. It's fair to say that the market/price is becoming more predictable again, thus lowering the risk aversion.However, running the risk of outrage for bringing a technical topic into a speculation thread, what one should also consider is the growth of the mining industry. With the ASICs coming to the market, the production cost of BTC is rising at about 10% per 2 weeks. The current ROI is months. If one analyzes the 2011 bubble, one sees why this is important:
1) the production cost of BTC provides support for a minimum price per BTC
2) investments in mining equipment will increase until the ROI is years (in terms of BTC earnings)
1) caused miners in 2011 to enter the speculation market once the price dropped to critical levels. Most miners are investors who use their technical expertise to make profit from the arbitrage between the production and selling of BTC. However, when the arbitrage window vanishes they can use materialized profits (e.g. fiat) to keep the operation running (burning previous earnings) and adopt a long position in BTC, effectively depleting supply of new BTC and maybe even buy BTC off the market near to or at production costs.
2) gives you an indication of the timeline the mining industry is operating on. It's not days or months - it's years. Thus to discourage miners considerably one would have to keep BTC price BELOW production costs for months!
Miners and speculators operate based on a different mantra. Speculators buy low and sell high and are price driven. Miners produce low and sell higher and are production cost driven. Also they have very different time preferences for their activities.
Based on my analysis the BTC price is still hovering significantly over the production cost. However, the gap is closing fast. A 5x-10x increase in production cost for BTC until the end of this year is likely. Some of this increase will eat into the gap and some will materialize as an increase in BTC price.
Lower highs, but also higher lows.
For now. But I think we are much more likely to retest 50 than we are 160 or (even more unlikely) 266.
Quote
Definition of 'Bear Market'
A market condition in which the prices of securities are falling, and widespread pessimism causes the negative sentiment to be self-sustaining. As investors anticipate losses in a bear market and selling continues, pessimism only grows.
A market condition in which the prices of securities are falling, and widespread pessimism causes the negative sentiment to be self-sustaining. As investors anticipate losses in a bear market and selling continues, pessimism only grows.
I'm sorry. But to fit the current situation to this definition is more than a stretch. I feel no pessimism (let alone widespread) about falling prices, mostly hope (to be able get cheaper coins).
In what way? Prices are falling, and market sentiment is definitely down (even if you personally arent pessimistic) compare post in this forum to a month ago.
Prices are falling?
Sentiment bearish?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/market-sentiment-index-poll-april-69029 (68% bullish, 32% bearish for april)
We are in May if you did not notice lol
I did, but I couldn't find a more recent poll and you "falling prices" have started April 10th.
Is this all you got? ;-)
My comment was not directed towards you lol
My mistake.
We are in May if you did not notice lol
That is the current 6 month chart from bitcoinity. Notice how the chart extends past april 30? Yeah.
You really are the worst poster on this forum.
My comment was not directed towards you lol
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