The Bear Market is officially...OFF?!? - page 11.

fitty

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Quote from: evolve on May 09, 2013, 09:33:22 AM

However, I do think we will have to break through 50 before the bubble is "popped", and breakout above 150 would definitely signal a trend reversal.

9 days ago you said it was about to get "crazy" and "this bubble is going to pop all the way". And 9 days later, it hasn't gone down.

When you're that dramatic, have charts, and you end up being wrong, you should probably take a break from forecasting BTC. At least stop making threads and bumping your old (wrong) predictions. Maybe stick to posting in the other 300 TA threads until you're back on your feet and you're confident enough to be starting threads with the "next big crazy move" that likely won't happen.

molecular

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Quote from: evolve on May 09, 2013, 09:33:22 AM

Investopedia's definition of bear market says nothing about lower lows. If the price is significantly below 266 in another month (as it is now), it will "officially" be a bear market.

Quote

Definition of 'Bear Market'
A market condition in which the prices of securities are falling, and widespread pessimism causes the negative sentiment to be self-sustaining. As investors anticipate losses in a bear market and selling continues, pessimism only grows. Although figures can vary, for many, a downturn of 20\% or more in multiple broad market indexes, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500), over at least a two-month period, is considered an entry into a bear market.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearmarket.asp

However, I do think we will have to break through 50 before the bubble is "popped", and breakout above 150 would definitely signal a trend reversal.

oh, I'm sorry, I mixed up the definitions of "bear market" and "downtrend".

However I'm not sure a 80% drop (from $266 to $50) within one week followed by a 440% rise (from $50 to $220) over a period of 7 weeks - which in sum gives a "downturn of 20% within 2 months" - would constitute the estblishment of a bearmarket.

evolve

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Investopedia's definition of bear market says nothing about lower lows. If the price is significantly below 266 in another month (as it is now), it will "officially" be a bear market.

Quote

Definition of 'Bear Market'
A market condition in which the prices of securities are falling, and widespread pessimism causes the negative sentiment to be self-sustaining. As investors anticipate losses in a bear market and selling continues, pessimism only grows. Although figures can vary, for many, a downturn of 20\% or more in multiple broad market indexes, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500), over at least a two-month period, is considered an entry into a bear market.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearmarket.asp

However, I do think we will have to break through 50 before the bubble is "popped", and breakout above 150 would definitely signal a trend reversal.

molecular

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to enter a bear market we need a lower low. Depending on timeframe there are 2 potential lows to break:

the $80 low on 5/3 (red)
the $50 low on 4/16 (yellow)

if we don't make a new low below $80, it's not a bear market but a correction (by investopedia definitions quoted further above). We could then enter a bull market or at least further consolodation pattern (green). Of course there's different options for "green", I just outlined roughly one of them. A break of the $170 top would clearly mean we're in a bull market again (both higher highs and higher lows would've been reached then)

I don't think we have to wait more than a month to see this resolved.

Zaih

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Still going strong sir!

lysr

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The triple tops @115 and breakout with large volume @110 yesterday should trigger a bearish reversal, we will see a low 100ish within this week

molecular

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evolve

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molecular

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Quote from: evolve on May 08, 2013, 06:13:22 PM

Quote from: Rampion on May 08, 2013, 06:08:31 PM

Kinda of a bull disguised as a bear you too...

No, no, no, no.

"Bull" and "bear" dont describe some overriding market philosophy, just an outlook on the current market.

For me, a bull wants to have acquired as many bitcoins as possible in the end. A bear wants to hold his profits in fiat in the end.

molecular

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Quote from: Rampion on May 08, 2013, 06:08:31 PM

Quote from: evolve on May 08, 2013, 06:06:34 PM

Quote from: Rampion on May 08, 2013, 06:03:12 PM

So you are shorting at plus500 or similar service? Or just hoping to buy back lower?

I am out of the market completely right now. I'll think about buying back in when the dust settles.

Ok, so hoping to buy back lower. Kinda of a bull disguised as a bear you too... But very well disguised, I have to say.

Anyhow: if you'd be so sure we are going down you'd be shorting.

To be fair: he didn't say he's sure. He said he thinks it's more probable this will turn into a bear market but didn't rule out the possibility this is just a correction. If he isn't sure, it's not sensible for him to short.

wamatt

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Quote from: fourkey2001 on May 08, 2013, 07:43:48 PM

This is not a bull market.

It is a bear one. Go for it buddy. I have $6000 in waiting to buy BTC at 95

You might be be waiting a long time, but maybe not too. Difficult to say right now, but if you do a search, you'll find plenty still waiting for the <$10 buy-in from the 2011 bubble. Opportunistic bears hoping to buy in cheap.

What you should have done, is bought in at $60, on the post-crash, but didn't and now feel bad. I'd love to get in at 90 again, but the market really has no care about my desires.

evolve

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That's not necessarily true.

You can still buy, sell, and profit even if you think the market is going down. Buying in doesn't necessarily make you bullish on the overall market.

Miz4r

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Quote from: fourkey2001 on May 08, 2013, 07:43:48 PM

This is not a bull market.

It is a bear one. Go for it buddy. I have $6000 in waiting to buy BTC at 95

You're obviously a bull. If you really thought we're in a bear market you would not buy at 95, that's just a small correction from where we are now.

fourkey2001

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Quote from: wamatt on May 08, 2013, 07:39:00 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Just about to ease into some shorts:

Oh boy, you're in for a world of pain son. Shorting a stable if not slightly bull market. Well Good luck with that haha

This is not a bull market.

It is a bear one. Go for it buddy. I have $6000 in waiting to buy BTC at 95

wamatt

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Just about to ease into some shorts:

Oh boy, you're in for a world of pain son. Shorting a stable if not slightly bull market. Well Good luck with that haha

evolve

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Just about to ease into some shorts:

Good luck, I learned my lesson about leverage from Bitcoinica ... Cheesy

Rampion

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Quote from: evolve on May 08, 2013, 06:10:27 PM

Quote from: Rampion on May 08, 2013, 06:08:31 PM

Anyhow: if you'd be so sure we are going down you'd be shorting.

Nope. I dont trade BTC with leverage. Market swings are to large, unpredictable, and can leave you with a margin call even within a known trend.

BTC is a bitch, tremendously risky and unpredictable... But still it has too much potential to loose the opportunity to buy.

On the contrary, shorting BTC is simply crazy - even if in a bear market like the 2011 would be very profitable. But who's willing to take that risk now?

Not even evolve.

Bullish signals everywhere, flashing around, staring at you Cheesy

evolve

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Quote from: Rampion on May 08, 2013, 06:08:31 PM

Kinda of a bull disguised as a bear you too...

No, no, no, no.

"Bull" and "bear" dont describe some overriding market philosophy, just an outlook on the current market.

I really dont know why that's so hard for you people to understand.

From another thread that goes into this a bit:

Quote from: evolve on May 07, 2013, 06:36:54 PM

Quote from: adpinbr on May 07, 2013, 06:34:19 PM

Have you ever believed the market is going up?

Plenty of times. Most of the way up to 30 in 2011 and from the point we hit singles (after the 2011 crash) all the way up to about 13 last year. I've been bullish for a far greater amount of time than I have been bearish on the market.

That's what some of you keep failing to understand.

Just because I think BTC is currently way overvalued, and strongly believe the market is going back down, does not mean I am against bitcoin. In fact, it's quite the opposite. I think for BTC to succeed, its boom and bust economy must fail in favor of a real economy that grows at a natural rate (as opposed to the current economy which is being driven by hype and speculation)...the reality is that we are not even close to that yet.

evolve

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