Topic: The Bear Market is officially...OFF?!? - page 8. (Read 29279 times)

Quote from: molecular on May 12, 2013, 06:24:51 AM

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$125 and $80 are the levels to watch. When one of these is broken, a new up-/downtrend is established

I agree with this. Though, I would call it a continuation of the downtrend or a new uptrend.

I also think that the longer we stay at these levels, the less likely we are to break out into a new uptrend, because investors will continue to lose faith that the market will recover. The fact that the recent good news/hype (Gyft, China, ATM, etc) didn't really push the price near our previous levels tells me the hype machine is dead for now. I think it will take will take some amazing news to push us back upwards past 125.

Fair enough.

It's probably hairsplitting, but I don't subscribe to that view because the old downtrend (upper line marked "1 (broken)" in my pic) was broken. So the trend-channel was invalidated. So technically -- I could argue if I was nitpicking -- it'd indeed be new downtrend (that would have to be established by hitting a new low) and we're currently not in one, in fact we're not trending at all.

We're smurfing along, at least on the timescale I'm looking at things.

Nice post. It looks like we are at a critical juncture , we're either going up or down. I think we could see a big movement downwards in the next week, as people realise price is not going up. With the price holding so stable recently, a large downwards movement is overdue.

old_engineer

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Quote from: old_engineer on May 11, 2013, 05:12:31 PM

What do you think is the latency between actual good news -- news that truly makes a difference -- and an increase in price?

I think the latency has two components:
1) an immediate increase when fence-sitters that already have funds on the exchanges make buys
2) a second wave a few days later when additional USD hits the exchanges.

you forget 2 more effects:

0) even before the news hits, some insiders are buying/selling
3) if news is really big and/or far-reaching, fresh newbs are activated. latency about 6 weeks.

Good point, but I'd say the latency for n00bs is 1-6 weeks. Some n00bs are faster than others.

In my book, relevant recent news:
* CFTC "looking at bitcoin", legitimizing bitcoin in many eyes - 5/8
* Gates calls Bitcoin a "tour de force" - 5/8 (remember, there are 12,000 Microsoft millionaires that have followed him)
* $5M investment in Coinbase "biggest investment yet in Bitcoin" - 5/9
* Gyft opening up 50,000 retail locations to on-demand bitcoin spending: 5/10

disclosure: I went long over the weekend, so please point out any selective blindness you may see in my possibly post-hoc rationale.

molecular

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Quote from: old_engineer on May 11, 2013, 05:12:31 PM

Quote

What do you think is the latency between actual good news -- news that truly makes a difference -- and an increase in price?

Zero. The market will internalize all news way before they take effect or even before you hear the news and have the opportunity to act on it. The best news indicator is the ticker itself, if it's up it must be China hype time, if it's down is mtgox lawsuit time.

Quote from: the boy plunger

it's all in the tape.

EDIT: after reading discussion above: I think you're all correct.

The latency from good news to related price action is 0 (or even negative, my item "0.)" ).

However most of the time there will be more action also related to the news with positive latency (items "1.)", "2.)", "3.)")

molecular

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Quote from: Frozenlock on May 11, 2013, 02:34:41 PM

The fact that the recent good news/hype (Gyft, China, ATM, etc) didn't really push the price near our previous levels tells me the hype machine is dead for now. I think it will take will take some amazing news to push us back upwards past 125.

What do you think is the latency between actual good news -- news that truly makes a difference -- and an increase in price?

I think the latency has two components:
1) an immediate increase when fence-sitters that already have funds on the exchanges make buys
2) a second wave a few days later when additional USD hits the exchanges.

you forget 2 more effects:

0) even before the news hits, some insiders are buying/selling
3) if news is really big and/or far-reaching, fresh newbs are activated. latency about 6 weeks.

molecular

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Quote from: molecular on May 11, 2013, 01:42:17 PM

good point, I'll check it out next time.

what's the reasoning for log-charts again? Because then you're "looking at relative changes"?

Exactly.

but then a straigt line is actually a exponential curve... isn't that a problem?

molecular

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[/img]

$125 and $80 are the levels to watch. When one of these is broken, a new up-/downtrend is established

I agree with this. Though, I would call it a continuation of the downtrend or a new uptrend.

I also think that the longer we stay at these levels, the less likely we are to break out into a new uptrend, because investors will continue to lose faith that the market will recover. The fact that the recent good news/hype (Gyft, China, ATM, etc) didn't really push the price near our previous levels tells me the hype machine is dead for now. I think it will take will take some amazing news to push us back upwards past 125.

Fair enough.

It's probably hairsplitting, but I don't subscribe to that view because the old downtrend (upper line marked "1 (broken)" in my pic) was broken. So the trend-channel was invalidated. So technically -- I could argue if I was nitpicking -- it'd indeed be new downtrend (that would have to be established by hitting a new low) and we're currently not in one, in fact we're not trending at all.

We're smurfing along, at least on the timescale I'm looking at things.

dbru77

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Quote from: BubbleBoy on May 11, 2013, 05:48:23 PM

Quote

What do you think is the latency between actual good news -- news that truly makes a difference -- and an increase in price?

Zero. The market will internalize all news way before they take effect or even before you hear the news and have the opportunity to act on it. The best news indicator is the ticker itself, if it's up it must be China hype time, if it's down is mtgox lawsuit time.

Doesn't make much sense to me either. The market is created by people buying or selling. News can influence this behaviour of course, though I believe mainly speculators will "react" to freshly surfaced information.

"Ordinary" BTC users (the guys who bring fresh money for the traders) buy BTC to use it or sell BTC because they've got no use it for it. They will do so when they need to - or want to. Which may be months after let's say Amazon enabled BTC as a payment option.

BubbleBoy

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Quote

This is true for real-world markets, but Bitcoin lives in alternative universe

Since there is no way to price a bitcoin and the price is entirely emotional, when they hear the news people are speculating about "what effect would this news have on the emotions of the other players ?". It's still en efficient market, albeit it has no connection whatsoever to reality. Well, emotions are real, I guess.

Quote

According to your hypothesis, stock markets fell preemptively before 9/11 because "maybe they knew the reporter".

That's a complete strawman and has little to do with what I actually said. It's not that hard to understand: when you see towers collapsing on TV it's too late to call your broker. Of course someone made that "lucky" order that cleared the bid side and closed the day without a huge loss. It's irrelevant because 99.99% of time it won't be you. Everybody else, including you, had a huge loss on 9/11 and panic selling on the news would have exacerbated that loss.

oda.krell

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It doesn't matter who's the precise agent that conveys the information into the market. It could be someone who was lucky to refresh the news page in the moment it was posted. Or maybe he knows the reporter. Or maybe he simply used his deductive powers.

It's irrelevant because it's like winning the lottery. You won't be him; reacting to good or bad news is a beginner's mistake, by the time you learn about it it's too late to act. I'm not saying you should not use information: maybe you have a unique predictive formula that uses the EBITDA and tells you if the stock is any good. So news about the EBIDTA of a company is useful to you. "Apple EBIDTA way above expectations" is useless, the stock price is already up.

That statement, in it's unabashed generality, is plain retarded. According to your hypothesis, stock markets fell preemptively before 9/11 because "maybe they knew the reporter". Or "maybe they simply used their deductive power".

giantdragon

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The market will internalize all news way before they take effect or even before you hear the news and have the opportunity to act on it.

This is true for real-world markets, but Bitcoin lives in alternative universe Cheesy

BubbleBoy

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It doesn't matter who's the precise agent that conveys the information into the market. It could be someone who was lucky to refresh the news page in the moment it was posted. Or maybe he knows the reporter. Or maybe he simply used his deductive powers.

It's irrelevant because it's like winning the lottery. You won't be him; reacting to good or bad news is a beginner's mistake, by the time you learn about it it's too late to act. I'm not saying you should not use information: maybe you have a unique predictive formula that uses the EBITDA and tells you if the stock is any good. So news about the EBIDTA of a company is useful to you. "Apple EBIDTA way above expectations" is useless, the stock price is already up.

Birdy

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Quote

What do you think is the latency between actual good news -- news that truly makes a difference -- and an increase in price?

Zero. The market will internalize all news way before they take effect or even before you hear the news and have the opportunity to act on it. The best news indicator is the ticker itself, if it's up it must be China hype time, if it's down is mtgox lawsuit time.

Ok, who is doing this then? Some people with visions selling/buying before the news is out?
Even if I'm the only one reacting on a news, I already render your argument invalid.

BubbleBoy

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Quote

What do you think is the latency between actual good news -- news that truly makes a difference -- and an increase in price?

Zero. The market will internalize all news way before they take effect or even before you hear the news and have the opportunity to act on it. The best news indicator is the ticker itself, if it's up it must be China hype time, if it's down is mtgox lawsuit time.

old_engineer

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Quote from: molecular on May 11, 2013, 01:42:17 PM

The fact that the recent good news/hype (Gyft, China, ATM, etc) didn't really push the price near our previous levels tells me the hype machine is dead for now. I think it will take will take some amazing news to push us back upwards past 125.

What do you think is the latency between actual good news -- news that truly makes a difference -- and an increase in price?

I think the latency has two components:
1) an immediate increase when fence-sitters that already have funds on the exchanges make buys
2) a second wave a few days later when additional USD hits the exchanges.

After the Gyft announcement Friday, there was a spike to $122 just hours later, and another $200k buy a little later. I think this is an indication that the Gyft announcement is being seen as big news, and as such, there could be a second wave of USD hitting the exchanges on Monday or Tuesday.

I don't think this means that it's about to turn into a bull market, just that I don't see the price dropping. I think we'll stay in the $110-$125 zone for a while longer. I can't imaging the price staying below $100 for very long -- too many people consider these to be "cheap" coins -- but going over $125 in the next week would require a whale with many millions. I certainly wouldn't bet money against the latter happening. There are more people with millions of spare USD than there are bitcoiners with tens of thousands of coins.

Frozenlock

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good point, I'll check it out next time.

what's the reasoning for log-charts again? Because then you're "looking at relative changes"?

Exactly.

evolve

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Quote from: Frozenlock on May 11, 2013, 01:17:59 PM

[/img]

$125 and $80 are the levels to watch. When one of these is broken, a new up-/downtrend is established

I agree with this. Though, I would call it a continuation of the downtrend or a new uptrend.

I also think that the longer we stay at these levels, the less likely we are to break out into a new uptrend, because investors will continue to lose faith that the market will recover. The fact that the recent good news/hype (Gyft, China, ATM, etc) didn't really push the price near our previous levels tells me the hype machine is dead for now. I think it will take will take some amazing news to push us back upwards past 125.

molecular

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$125 and $80 are the levels to watch. When one of these is broken, a new up-/downtrend is established

Y u no log charts? Cry

good point, I'll check it out next time.

what's the reasoning for log-charts again? Because then you're "looking at relative changes"?

Frozenlock

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