Topic: The bitcoin halving, whales manipulations and its 2020 price valuation - page 3. (Read 794 times)

The stock markets haven't even bounced yet. The SPX last closed 0.35% above the yearly lows.

Meanwhile, BTC just bounced from $3,850 to $7K. That's a massive 81% bounce, unheard of in the global markets right now! You seem to be downplaying the magnitude of BTC's recovery.

I just wish the stock market would follow.

The halving will not impact bitcoin this time, as bitcoin was captured by paper speculation, and is now just another asset in their big casino, like gold and silver. It was a currency, then a store of value, and now is only for speculation. Its quite sad to see it ending like this. And worse, none of the other crypto "currencies" can be used in its place, as the entire system was built around it.

Now every time a crisis happens within fiat systems, bitcoin will be the first to go down, and it will go lower than anything else. Whereas when there is a recovery in the fiat system, bitcoin will go up slower and rise less than the other assets, as the recent recovery from the crashes showed up. Really, 6k? You must be kiding me, this is no recovery and it just proves what I said once more.

I think Bitcoin will be very expensive and go higher every day

I don't understand how someone could make this much research into bitcoin and do not realize that bitcoin requires more and more money when it is going up.

When you go from 1k to 2k it doesn't require as much money as it requires when moving from 10k to 11k and when you are moving bitcoin from 1k to 2k you are 100% profiting while spending less money whereas when you are moving 10k to 11k you are moving 10% while spending more money. It is probably one of the reasons why it will be halving so difficult next time.

Plus, we also know that bitcoin could have difficulty going down while some people closing their machines, if almost all machines stop in the world we could have bitcoin at 500 dollars and still profitable because difficulty is all time low, not going to happen obviously but we can still be 6k and make profit if enough machines stop, so the price doesn't have to go up.

yet, we can't draw any conclusion that Bitcoin halving have a positive effect on the market at this time. Maybe we could say that we have some market inclines due to halving but it also may be because of some price manipulation. This year is full of market drama just like whales manipulation, coronavirus effect, and this halving.

If we could just rely on the previous halving, we can think that there is a possible exponential market growth but something looks different at this time.  
Anyway, that all be unpredictable...only we could have to observe what will happen months after halving as usually, pumps may occur base on its halving history.  

The price of Bitcoin is not often exposed to the pump due to halving.
I believe that halving can well raise the price in a zone of a neutral situation, but not now.
A global crisis has begun in the world, but not everyone is aware of it. Also, do not lose sight of a pandemic.
At this time, even halving does not make a pump.

As for the short rise in price you mentioned, it only happened in 2012 halving. In 2016 halving, the price rose but not shortly at all. 2012 halving cause the sharp rise while whales and investors capital caused the 2016 price rise. Also, this year prices rise can only be caused by whales and investors. Halving is now only having indirect effect.

As for the prices momentum, halving has never generated only hype alone before, it also generate price rise momentum. We do not know what this year halving hold though, but buying cryptocurrencies  at these time when it is still cheap will be profitable as the halving can also indirectly make people to invest on cryptocurrencies.

I believe that you're right, but I thought that with this coming halving the price would goes up because everyone is optmistic and slowly buying day by day, but after this crash, the only hope here is for the long term, we can forget the price rising due to the halving, unfortunately we'll miss this opportunity

The Covid-19, how governments react to it, the isolation and other fundamental factors that affect the whole market are certainly related to the recent nosedive. People are afraid and anxious, so any 'experimental' asset is going to get ditched and they turn into a more trusted investment like gold.

But in times like this, you can find opportunity to buy something cheap. If you catch the bottom then you'll be in profits. Hopefully, we'll be lucky.

With the market data that we currently have on all the halvings that passed, it's surprising that people still believe that price appreciation happens during and shortly after the halving, when in fact those price actions happen before and long after the halving itself. The current situation of bitcoin is also affected by a global pandemic, with people pulling out aome of their investments to use for supplies and/or whatnot. We already had a nice increase a few weeks ago, and may not see one like that again for a few months. Why the market behaves as such, we don't know, but the fact is already there: the halving only generates hype but fails to generate price momentum.

Some people will see this dump as devastating because of their investment others will see it as blessing in disguise, if you look at the present condition of the market you would be discourage but if you already understand how the market work, then this is an opportunity to buy good coin at cheap price, because after every dump, the price definitely comes back up, and going by what the above post is saying about btc statistics, then hopefully we can see a price spike in the upcoming months.
No need to panic sell.

The bitcoin price will definitely rise as we approach the halving but because of this virus we might only get back to $9,000 or something. If the virus hadn’t happened then it would have gone higher.

This time next year though we could see a new ATH & all this nonsense will be forgotten. 

just the following day and that is now,we go down harder and falling more than 20% so means what you said comes reality mate and this is another different halving experience from the past.
and another correct word because now down trend starts and waiting for the upward Movement.


again lets use this to make another investing pricing $5000 level now,chance to buy more.

Bitcoin already reacted.The BTC price went down from 10K USD to 8K USD.If the crisis continues,the price will go down,but we shouldn't care about that.The most important question is what will happen after the coronarecession is gone and the prices recover.Will they recover slowly or rapidly?
The "What will happen with the BTC price after halving?" question has been discussed thousands of times on the forum for the past several years.
Your conclusions aren't very different from the conclusions of many forum members before you.There's nothing new and original in your research.

the halving rise is only the rise that happens about 1-2 months prior to halving. the rest is the natural rises due to adoption. and the fact that we don't see a gigantic rise in that short period of time and instead see a big rise is because market is maturing more and as the order books become more packed with orders it becomes increasingly difficult to jump up (or similarly to crash down).

for example the 2012 rise you are talking about was from $2.2 to $15 but it was followed immediately by a dump to $2.5 which is pretty much where it started from. why? because it was easy to manipulate and also the order book thinness!
fast forward to next halving, the rise was from $420 to $778 and then it dropped back down to $580.
as a result comparison of the two halvings are like this:
1st in 2012: rise= 581% drop= -83%
2nd in 2016: rise= 85% drop= -25%
i don't know about this but i call this market maturity as it becomes harder and now impossible to pump and dump bitcoin. that means we should see a much more reasonable rise for this halving and finish it up with a logical small correction. and then get back on track of the natural rise like always.

we can only speculate for now because the condition of the world economy is uncertain right now

but as long as we pay attention this Bitcoin is decentralized and not influenced by the outside world such as politics and crises. indeed at this time, the entire investment market such as stocks and commodities are crashing because of the Corona issue but I think that such a thing will not affect Bitcoin.

Yeah, there is a kind of mixed feeling on the expectant 2020 Bitcoin halving. For me, I see the situation like the August 2017 Bitcoin fork. The tension was palpable and the market almost froze before the appointed time. But the whole thing changed positively as soon as the fork was over and Bitcoin became volatile once again and went into an ATH. I expect such to play out during this halving.

No, the price increase in the first halving than the second halving.

The initial price before 2012 halving was $11 and increased to over $1100
That is 100x increase.

Before 2016 halving, the bicoin price was around $700 and increase to $19,665.36
That is 33x increase.

No only adoption increase the price in 2012 to 2013, halving significanly increase the price but the effect of halving decrease in 2016/2017 price increase in which adoption really helped to increase the price as investors increase in number.

And I also said in the write up that the main reason the bull price increase can be effective this time is because of whales manipulation and investors that will invest on bitcoin.

So, we are still on the same page.


If you check the coinmarketcap link

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/

Check the market cap

You will see that the market cap of bitcoin is not up to $6 billion in certain times in 2016

In 2013, the market cap was not up to $4 billion dollars which shows that halving effect is the real cause if the price increase in 2012 halving. Unlike 2016/2017 bull run that was mostly cause by increased rate of investment of bitcoin by investors. Halving too has its but not like the previous halving.

So, halving effect is diminishing and investment effect is the what we can hope in to significantly increase bitcoin price. All is said in my write up above.

there are a couple of thing here that i can not agree with.
first of all halving has never been the reason for any of the rises that were cited here. all halving event itself does is a short term hype that has always faded away just as fast as it came along. the main reason for all the rises has always been adoption and nothing else. if price goes up in a certain period of time compared to others that means the adoption in that period of time has been bigger. and price went up a lot more during second halving compared to the first one exactly because of this reason and to see that you should compare the bigger pictures not just zoomed in versions!

secondly i am convinced that currently a lot of effort is going into keeping bitcoin price down. to the point that this may be the new version of the war against bitcoin from all those who have been feeling petrifyingly threatened by bitcoin for whatever reason!

imagine what would the headlines looked liked if they said "bitcoin is rising while the stock market crashes badly". enough said....

On the other hand, perhaps if things get too bad, it will lead to Bitcoin rising as a safe heaven. I don't think that COVID-19 can be the primary cause of the world economic crisis, even if we take into account its serious impact. However, it can be the trigger of the economic crisis that was bound to happen somewhere around 2020 anyway. So if things get bad, it's natural to expect that Bitcoin will move down along with everything else. However, as it actually doesn't depend on what's going on with the world economy because of being decentralized and limited in supply, it might be something in which people start pouring their investments to save them, and it can totally work.