Topic: The bitcoin halving, whales manipulations and its 2020 price valuation - page 4. (Read 794 times)

You are right about the corona virus crises. Crypto, stock, crude oil and many other markets were affected. And the main reason linked to the declination is the corona virus but there will be other reasons too not yet said.

On January 2, 2020, bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies price started to increase but later reduced by 6% as the virus start to infection people in China. But, bitcoin later increased to $10,500 from a price above $8000 but below $9000 st the time. The virus spread but the cryptocurrencies  were later increasing. But later at the end of February till this time, the crypto market has been suffering losses till now. Even, if whale also manipulate around this time, converting bitcoin to stable coin, and good trades that have noticed the effect also converting to a stable coins, just in preparation for halving. This can be possible too.

It is linked to corona virus but analysts can not be 100% correct and are very wrong at times in price prediction.
 

You are right from your point. But from my explanation, the halving effect, whales manipulations and retail investors anticipation investment capital will make the price to rise. I also said that this effect would likely begin in April, a month to halving as it occurred in 2016 halving. I mean a month to halving the price starts to increase.

In 2012, the price rose to $1100 but later declined to $700. But, 2016 halving resulted in a bull market. So, regardless of what is going on now, the whales will manipulate, investors will invest and the price will increase. Later, people that fomo will invest too to increase the price future till a certain month in 2021.

This is just a prediction but reasons make us positive to invest.

There is something different now in this halving
There is a world crisis going on. We don't know how will bitcoin react, if the crisis will get worse by the time of the halving....

Maybe things need to settle down before any big bitcoin upward movement

Based from your explanation, it could somehow be true and statistics never lie. But of course the price now currently is pushing down. Well of course factors of these are very broad such as the corona virus which really affect the market. Im not saying your prediction is vague but you did some point on what tou explained. But remember, the word Volatile it can trigger something we really dont expect.

As far as early January this year, the market is boosted with such surge and fomoing due to halving but unexpected event came in and we are now experiencing a continuous downfall. April is near and Im not optimistic of even breaking 10k this month due to massive issues that were facing set aside those technical analyst that has become professional during bearish sentiment. They gotta say new prediction for this, Im sure.

Introduction
Bitcoin in history has halved two times, the first was in November, 2012 and the second was in July, 2016. In 2012 (the first halving), bitcoin rose from $11 to over $1000, which is cleared that halving is the main cause of this price increase. It is also altered by demand but the price increase start not long from the halving day when people did not yet anticipate for halving because it was the first one. So, the effect of retail investors will not be much.
Later, the price of bitcoin trended down to below $250, this was maintained before the 2016 halving. After the second halving, the bitcoin price rose to around $700 and was fluctuating around this price for months before the price just started to increase and rich the all time high of $19,665.36 on December 17, 2017.

Before the first halving in 2012, the mining reward was 50 btc and this greatly caused 10,500,000 btc to be mine before the first mining. The supply was too much and the price was not really increasing because of this, but, though increased because of demand for btc.
After the first halving in 2012, the mining reward decreased to 25 btc.
And after the 2016 halving, there were only 5,250,000 btc remaining to be mined. The mining reward decreased to 12.5
Before the next halving in this year in May, 2020, only 2,625,000 btc will be remaind to be mined.


First halving, 2012
Initial price: $11
Highest prices:  around 1100
That means it increased 100x


Second halving, 2016
Initial price: around and below $700
Highest price: all time all of $19,665.36
That means it increased over 33x


The 2012 halving effect and the less demand compared to 2016/2017 demand
We should noticed something, that the price increase more in 2012 halving than in 2016 halving in percentage but there were more demand after 2016 halving.

What could cause this?
Is it cause by whales manipulation or retail investors?
It is cause by the halving effect?
Two main facrors can cause the price of bitcoin to increase There could be other factors but the two main factors are halving effect and increased demand.

This is my opinion. In 2012, people did not invest on bitcoin more like after 2016 halving. This is because most people did not know what effect halving can cause and also the people that know about bitcoin as at 2012 were not much like 2016 to 2017. So, the bitcoin halving will have effect than people that invested on bitcoin, anticipating for halving. So there is no much increase in bitcoin market cap at this time if compared to 2016-2017.

2016 halving, the lone whale and the retail invesrors
Although, halving effect has effect and increase the price during the great bull run in 2016/2017 because the supply that were cut. But, in relation to the market cap, it is clear that investors invested greatly. So, the halving effect was effective but not effective like the 2012 halving. The price increase was greatly caused by investors.

The lone whale/whale manipulations
It was found in a research that around half of the bitcoin valuation around March 2017 to March 2018 was cause by trades between a stable currency (tether) and bitcoin. The trades were claimed to be cause by a single individual. Even if not a single person that caused it, it is evident that there are whales involved in the manipulations.

The retail investors
As said above that whales manipulation accounted for almost half but not all of the investment capital. Also, retail investors like us that hold and that trade for bitcoin also increase the market cap and this increase the price of bitcoin.
As said above, the price of btc increased in the second halving more because of the whales and people that invested on bitcoin. Not like 2012 halving that is grestly invmcreased by halving.

So, now, what can be the fate of bitcoin valuation in 2020.
As I explained above, we know that there are only 21 million btc, before the next halving in May, 2020, only 2,625,000 btc will be left and this has been linked above that the more the amount to be minded is reducing, the less will be the effect of halving. And I used the 2012 and 2016 having to explain.

one senior cryptocurrency industry executive says in this year that unforseen event will make cryptocurrencies  like bitcoin to rich all time high. Bitcoin is the most valuable cryptocurrency and we know they are talking mostly about it.

So, What can be the unforseen event?
In my opinion. The halving effect itself can not increase the price significantly but mildly. The whales and the retail investors will be the one to pump money into bitcoin investment. Whales will manipulate and retail investors will also invest. Lastly, do not forget about those that fomo (fear of missing out), they will greatly invest on bitcoin and the price of bitcoin will increase. Let us expect this effect to begin in April, a month before bitcoin will halve.
This is just my opinion, we do not know actually if the price will increase but with my analyses, I am 90% certain that the price of bitcoin will increase in 2020 and the increase may still continue till a certain month in 2021.

Conclusion
Although, 2012/2013 bitcoin bull run was greatly cause by bitcoin halving but the effect of this on bitcoin price is drastically reducing as nearly all bitcoin are mined. But the whales manipulations and retail investor capitals is replacing the halving effect which is seen as the indirect halving effect to increase bitcoin price in 2020. So, as of this year, 2020, bitcoin bull run will occur and will last till a certain month in 2021.


These links are very helpful while writing this articles

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2020/02/08/bitcoin-smashes-through-10000-as-bull-run-suddenly-acceleratesheres-why/#2b8a6e5636de
https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2020/02/09/this-bitcoin-bull-run-is-extremely-different-to-2017s-epic-rally/#7c5a6f7e49c1
https://thenextweb.com/hardfork/2019/11/04/a-single-cryptocurrency-whale-caused-bitcoins-2017-bull-run-research-claims/


You may find these helpful
https://coinswitch.co/news/bitcoin-price-prediction-2020-2025-latest-btc-price-prediction-bitcoin-news-update
https://www.bitdegree.org/tutorials/bitcoin-price-prediction-2020/
https://coinrivet.com/how-profitable-will-bitcoin-be-in-2020/