Topic: the China PBOC event explained (Read 8277 times)

If you are patient enough to followed my advice and waited till now, my understanding is that market price has consumed negative news and negative expectation. The Chinese saga is close to an end. More bad news from Chinese government are expected but market price pretty much contained it. There will be no dip in price by 15th April unless there are bad news not from China's government.

I think, if you want to buy, now is about the time. The chance of a further dip rely on a Chinese major exchange's insolvency, most investors shouldn't wait for that kind of bad news.

P.S. I predicted the fiasco 9th Jan 2014: it will not declare a war against bitcoin but cripple bitcoin operations in China. So there are a certain level of confidence in me.

The *correction* that BTER released (saying it was only 3rd party stuff) makes me suspect that this is *just another game*.

We will of course see *after* mid-April but my advice to people would be to "hold" and not "panic sell" (and don't leave any coins on exchanges that you aren't *prepared to lose*).

I am inclined to agree with you.

I totally agree with you but I'm not talking about price speculation here.

If you're hoarding BTC/LTC then this has no impact on you because it won't collapse due to one country banning it or limiting its use; however if you make a mistake of getting into the game when it's +/-$1000 and expect to make a quick buck or getting rich then you're expecting to lose big time. For the rest, you just need to wait it out. China may not be nice at the beginning then look else where. One door closes, expect many other doors open!

So far, the 327 Caixin report is 50% confirmed: a recent memo from PBOC banning 3rd party deposit. This is not really interesting as we all know 3rd party deposit has been banned last December after a PBOC meeting. Smaller 3rd party processors which didn't attend the meeting tried to fly under the radar and now the PBOC issues an official memo.

What about bank deposit? There are some possibilities:

1. the Caixin report is 100% correct, the bank accounts will be closed on 15 Apr. However, since none of the 15 named exchanges confirm a ban, I believe this is not the most likely case. I would say 10% chance

2. the Caixin report is mostly correct. The bank accounts will be closed after 15 Apr to give enough time for people to get money back. The exchanges will soon get a notice from their banks. I would say 45% chance.

3. the Caixin report is only 50% correct. Only 3rd party deposit is concerned at this moment. I would say this is also 45% chance.

What do you think?

I just read it. By putting such an announcement there especially the last " 就算世界荒芜，总会有人是你的信徒", BTER forever lost possiblity of getting recognized loyal (while BTCChina repeatedly expressed willingness). Now it's up to PBOC to decide whether loyalty matters - sometimes, they demand loyality, sometimes they just want you dead. We will see.

Reading BTER news I think we are not at the bottom yet.

What if one party is trusted and the problem is solved? By all means, unless you've got a transfer from your relatives then it's safe other than that it has to be ensured so that you feel safe and secure.

This is the clarification from bter: https://bter.com/article/403

Also on the front page of btctrade: http://www.btctrade.com/

So far only 3rd party processors are concerned.

But still, bter confirmed that there is a memo from PBOC to their 3rd party processor. So a memo of some kind does exist

From your previous post record I will trust this conclusion without further homework. So today some my effort in speculating on unverified information. Pity.

bter just clarified that only their 3rd party processor account got closed. They never had a bank account for deposit. So it is still unknown whether bank deposit is banned.

The implicit theory behind all this ban/unban question is that the recent (2013) upswing of Bitcoin took China by surprise and now they are forced to take measures.
I call it bullshits: China is a big worldwide economy, with a lot of capable economic managers, you can bet that nothing happens by chance and take them by surprise, as a government they can't simply be that dumb else they won't be where they actually are.
I think that China wants bitcoins badly and they know how much the world is sensible to their moves and they play their cards accordingly, they don't take official positions but they let some "unconfirmed note" slip sometime (which they also quickly dismiss) and close some minor exchange (which, mind you, could be very well proprierty of the same "gray eminence" which will benefit elsewhere from the panic issued).
My guess is that every time a manipulation attempt will not work the way they meant it to go we will experience some new panic-inducing "news" from China.
Therefore i think there will be no ban at all.
Just my 2 cents

Sorry, I skipped lines: I meant to say "in this speculation the leaked-order is an intention that is replaced by a talk, and BTER didn't get a chance to talk, so their accounts closed as planned". I should have added this line where I said "I do not doubted the recent ban existed in cetain form". But then again, I am thinking Chinese, that line is really not necessary for a local reader.

Don't forget that I also speculated sluggish execution, and more news to come.

Ok. I understand what you are saying now. But what doesn't make sense to me, is why would the government force them to close bank accounts by April 15th, if they wanted to give them another 3 months to operate before making potential new decisions?

It seems like by setting a date of April 15th, that they putting an end to the exchanges.

Or, are you implying that you don't think closing access to banking accounts will necessarily end the exchanges and there might be work arounds allowed (potentially with a 3 month review)?

Look at the recent 40 years of history, of our government wants to remove a business, it is done swiftly wtithout struggle. Managers put to prison (e.g. 顾雏军) or in extreme cases killed, company collapse with bad publicity (the state controls a significant portion of media and have loyalty of the rest - Caixin is already one of the most honest non-governmental that is allowed to live, hence I trusted their report - they are often reluctant to say what they know, but when they say, it is often true).

If the government wants to talk to you, then they are demanding for obedience, meaning they think letting you live is acceptable or benificial to them. Henc you will live for another 3 months, just to see if the result pleases them. 3 month is the usually shortest time-frame for our government to make a new decision (remember that when I post last time, 9th Jan, it takes about 3 months for this new decision).


We will wait and see how CEOs act. Moving out of the country has similiar outcome as they shutdown -> China out of the game. Google moved to HK and they are still being punished. You don't work on Chinese market without cooperation of Chinese government.

I thought I understood your entire post, but I don't know where you got "If this speculation is true, Bitcoin will be allowed to live for another 3 months" from.  Why would you say 3 months?

And again, what game are the CEO's playing? I assume they are smart enough to know what you just explained if what you just explained is true. Why aren't they just moving out of the country?

Honestly the news with Russia and China regarding Sanctions and world affairs against the US might make them change their policy
Weird factors in play

Thanks for asking, I was afraid someone would ask this, 'cause that forces me to speculate, which I should but loath to do. No, I don't really know why we are not hearing from these big exchanges. However, I do not doubted the recent ban existed in cetain form (the recent ban = bank accounts to be closed, 15 exchanges named), not only because I trust Caixin, but the ban is too detailed to be rumor - elaborate rumors don't work in China, simpliest rumour do, this is too detailed to be rumour.

My speculation is outlandish to western readers, so first I'd suggest a read of my previous post, to grasp the culture background:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/a-chinese-look-at-the-situation-in-china-397614

I'd suggest a full reading. Here is the highlight:

It happened more than once, in the past, that a lot of regulations or a very strict one makes it effectively impossible to do business in the industry. This incriminates the whole industry. The government could then, selectively pursue those who are not loyal, and your survival is back on the track - depending on your loyalty.

So picture this: The officials in charge arranges exchanges to talk, and all they demand for from the CEOs, is not that they promise to follow a certain reggulation, but that they are loyal, willing to obey. If CEOs are obiedient, let them run the business as usual and when anything is wrong, know the CEOs are looking for a chance to pay back, and a communication channel is already established to coordinate any future activities. You only want to make sure CEOs fear you and know to talk in line with medias, and ready to obey. Then you let them live for another while, see if you like the result.

If this speculation is true, Bitcoin will be allowed to live for another 3 months in China. The other possibility being pure sluggish excution - meaning we should see more news coming.


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If you think this is crazy talk, check the other crazy talk I made and how it came to be reality:
My post:  "What will the China government do to bitcoin?" made on 9th Jan 2014.

In you opinion, why have we not heard from Houbi, OkCoin or BtcChina?

If you actually listened to me and expected further dip in the 3 days following 28th, you are rewarded.

BTER, an exchange operated in Canada targetin Chinese (they don't even have English version) and has Chinese bank accounts, is the first to stop charging (deposite) completely (others were talking about BtcTrade, another exchange, which stopped online deposite only. Bter is the first to stop deposite in any form).

Their announcement is here (chinese only):
https://bter.com/article/402

What interests me, is why BTER? There are 15 bitcoin exchanges on the PBOC's ban list, BTER is a much less known one. A wild guess is that banks somehow informed or invited exchanges for a talk, to give order without publicity - typical Chinese government's way - and those who are not available are banned out right to get the owner come out and talk.