Topic: the China PBOC event explained - page 4. (Read 8268 times)

I'm not looking at it from the perspective of today. The government is likely to exist for a very long time. Bitcoin is something that is not going away... It's unwise for a government to ignore the potential future gravity of a changing idea/technology.

I'm looking into the near future where one possible scenario is an economic collapse of CNY.

Most Chinese hedge on commodities. The Chinese people can't get their wealth out of China.

The desire to leave would increase sharply should the Chinese bubble burst. People will be looking for a loop-hole and the PBOC can't stop it. There is a limit to all things; the Chinese people will soon realize that they are capable of choosing between whats right and wrong.

The PBOC would have been better off leaving it alone.

The actions of those who would prevent change may only hasten it; the actions of those who would implement change may delay it.

BTW, what is to stop Chinese to open account in Hong Kong, still his own country, and to trade from there, deposit and withdraw.

Is it a problem for Mainland Chinese to do a that in Hong Kong?

Obviously they are going to say that so that business keeps running as usual.

Please don't fall for this crap.
This afternoon the CEO's of every major Chinese exchange said it was rumors and they had nothing official. (I don't have the link now, but I saw it here and maybe on Reddit too)

The current status is still FUD and BS until proven otherwise.


Edit:
Here is the quote, but the article I saw earlier was stronger at making 'today's big news' sound like total BS.

“I’m aware of the rumors circulating on the topic,” Bobby Lee, chief executive officer of BTC China, one of the largest bitcoin exchanges in the Asian nation, said by phone today. “I haven’t heard of anything else to confirm that. We are still waiting to see what happens.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-27/pboc-orders-banks-to-shut-bitcoin-exchange-accounts-caixin-says.html

Perhaps the chinese authorities don't have the same opinion as the bulls do here about how magnificient the bitcoin technology is and how big it will become and how it could give that much power to a foreign country as you believe. They probably think of it more like another pesky shadow currency which they've banned many of in the past.

I agree with this.

I also don't think that the Chinese government is that concerned with Bitcoin. I think it sees it as a small annoyance.

Years down the road, if bitcoin is integrated in a global manner, they will change their mind.

For now though, I expect exchanges will be moving to Hong Kong, where they probably should have been from the start.

Perhaps because Bitcoin is an excellent means of capital flight for wealthy Chinese citizens and therefore is a financial weapon that if left unchecked, could grow to undermine the whole Chinese economy?

I don't think that the actual economy of bitcoin in China was that big if it even existed at all. The trading volume was just daytraders speculating and trading with the help of exchanges. Now that the exchanges are closed they will look for the next place where they can easily speculate and trade a different asset. There will be no motivation for them to suddenly establish a barter based bitcoin economy, especially not one nearly as large as the trading volume that was going on in exchanges.

As I said I hope they really enforce it so this will be the last time we got China-ed. If today PBOC is not clarifying like last time, the odds is big

The PBOC must understand that closing the exchanges will do little to stop the effect of Bitcoin capital flight.

The social network between people is too great; even if China can prevent social networking websites from talking about it. The word of mouth for something like Bitcoin between friends and family is strong enough to make capital flight unstoppable should the Chinese people desire to preserve their wealth as the unimaginably large economic bubble bursts.

I honestly think this is a direct reaction to an abnormally high risk of economic collapse. I think this is a strong knee-jerk reaction and it is very much grasping at straws.

The Chinese government is resisting change, but sometimes change is irresistible. The Chinese government can't keep the people from Bitcoin any more than they can keep a Typhoon away from the coast.

This, I cannot solve, but I have a theory.

I am speculating that Exchange's CEOs (some of them know me but didn't establish business contact) are simply confused and waiting for their bank managers to tell them that the accounts will be closed soon, meanwhile making backup plans to move to HK. The bank managers, however, was told to hold, and wait for PBOC's new decision. PBOC is watching media and trying to sense if everybody are ready to accept the fate -> Yes = Go on as planned. No = Make new strategy with the same goal. PBOC has a history of clumsy PR management, they are learning it too, so it's hard to predict their move. Notice that this time PBOC started the action (last time 18th Dec 2013, 5-ministry co-operated) so they have more room to change strategy, nevertheless the intention is clear now.

I don't know why the Chinese central authorities want to cede future financial power to the West by banning Bitcoin. Bitcoin could wind up being worth hundreds of trillions of dollars.  A poor small country like the Phillipines could choose to aggressively adopt it and become an overnight super power in China's backyard. They better think long and hard about their decision. It could be the best or worst decision they make in hundreds of years.

Seriously? Like a bunch of girls i swear.

If only they paid so much attention to the billion other real problems they are having. This is an empire that would burn books if it empowered them. Shame

Respect -1

So, in your opinion, why have exchanges continued to operate? Are we to suppose that none of them have a long term business plan? That is hard to believe, especially considering the recent infusion of VC capital into multiple exchanges.

Unless the people running the exchanges are complete idiots, and I assume they are not, what is it that they plan to do?

So what do you think will happen now? There will still be people in China who want to buy and sell Bitcoin. What will they do?

Ha ha. "You know what I mean" again.

The internal notification was not for the public - I explained this point already. The plan was:

1. Issue this notfications, and let banks notify the exchanges. Bank manager "We ain't gonna work with you, and you know what I mean".
2. The exchanges announces that they can't operate. Putting blame to PBOC is extremely silly move, they should do so by saying "please take our your money back, we can't do business, you know what I mean."
3. People know what it means and cease trading, being aware that exchanges already lined up with PBOC.

Now talk about unharmony, there are so many unharmony things happening everyday! The way to reach harmoney is not to do justice, but to put off the fight, i.e. convert rage to sadness, resent to capitulation. A war can be prevented if both sides knows who wins in the end. Letting exchances announcing they can't do the business is a clear signal that the government had won before the war start.

The plan was good but the notification leaked, two times. The first time PBOC state it was fake, and the second time more details are revealed and Caixin says they confirmed it (though receiver of the notification or PBOC?). This puts PBOC in confronation to bitcoin. This was really unnecessary and un-harmony, not meant to happen, but PBOC won't fear the confrontation, thus the intention will be done.

Yes.

逾期未关闭的，央行将进行处罚。也就是说，宽限期4月15日之后，比特币网站不再具备给客户提现的合法通道。

If accounts are not closed, the central bank will punish. After April 15, there is no legal way for Bitcoin websites to let users withdraw funds.

But there must be enough time for traders to get their money back, or that will only lead to "un-harmony". You know what I mean

The notification required closure of 15 companies' accounts, there will be less than 100 accounts to go, there are enough time. And I agree with you that the only thing in doubt is that deposite is still possible. But I will put wage on the professionalism of Caixin this time. That is, I think there are not much room to doubt - unless PBOC rewrite old decisions with new ones that not yet disclosed.

There will be a probably be a downtrend consisting of spikes down whenever each exchange's bank account (or the exchange itself) actually gets closed. It's not going to happen all at once, because the money flow is still active and there are still people hoping it won't happen.