Topic: The Cycling Thread (Read 1591 times)

OMG the french police has raided the Bahrain Victorious hotel during this night, with dozens of police officers.
A french public prosecutor has opened a preliminary investigation into the "acquisition, transportation, possession and importing of a prohibited substance or method for use by an athlete without justification by members of Team Bahrain Victorious, currently in action at the 2021 Tour de France."
Bahrain Victorious is the team of Wout Poels and the team currently leading the team classification by 34 minutes and I've bet on them too.  
https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/police-raid-bahrain-victorious-hotel-at-tour-de-france/

^
It's standard scoring, you get 20pts for HC and 2x the points if the stage finishes at HC climb. It should be the first eight riders receiving points for HC climbs, not sure the exact breakdown, but it goes something like this: 20-15-12 and 40-30-24, etc.

There will be two HC climbs today (stage 18) Tourmalet and Luz Ardiden, i could totally see a big breakaway group early with nobody from GC guys in there with 10+ minutes gap and UAE controlling the pace. If Wout Poels has the legs and he is in that breakaway group, he should able to beat both Quintana and Woods (or anyone else) at Tourmalet.

With 64 pts, Wout van Aert could be a wild card, but JUMBO-VISMA will most likely have him help Vingegaard on the final climb, i expect a battle between him and Carapaz for the second-third place in the final kilometers at Luz Ardiden.

tl;dr Pogacar already won a tough mountain stage, as well as the Tour. In my eyes, Wout Poels is 90-95% favorite to win the polka dot jersey, unless of course something extraordinary happens.

Does anyone know where the points to be earned for each climb of the Tour de France are available?
Today Pogacar won 40(!) points for one single climb at the stage 17. How fair is that? It seems there was a double points bonus for this HC climb.
https://www.letour.fr/en/rankings/stage-17
And now Pogacar is second of the mountains classification with 67pts behind Wouter Poels(78pts)... and favorite of bookmakers!
I bet 2 days ago on Poels and Quintana for the best climber title but now I'm afraid of a new attack from Pogacar in a high awarded climb.

So fast letour, but of course last year, due to a pandemic, it had to be held at the wrong time.

The best cycling race in the world already has its first winner Julian Alaphilippe.
The top 3 is completed by Michael Matthews and Ide Shelling.

Richard Carapaz one of my favorites finished in 22nd place.

I agree with you that cycling are for brave, strong and tough people. My body can't longer take how hard it is. I've watch from some of the influencers here in our country that do cycling and they seems happy and looks really fit. I thought at first it's easy and you also have coach that you need to follow. I tried it on ny own and I can't handle the pain. I don't know hoy they do it, I feel kinda jealous and asking myself why they can and I cant. But I'm okay now in biking. Like you I bought cute stuff for my bike to motivate me more. I wish I can share the link but I bought them personally and seems like we're too far.

I remember he was the reason why I got into cycling in my college years. There was so many cycling tours back then including the now defunct Marlboro Tour in the Philippines. I do not know if the said tour was renamed or something but as I got older my cycling enthusiasm paved way to working life and the pursuit of living to survive. Due to the pandemic I decided to purchase a mountain bike again so I could go places during the months of quarantine where there was no public transportation. Since you made this thread, I might as well check the sites devoted to cycling and the tours that happen around the world.

                     The 104th Giro d’Italia
                                    (May 8-30, 2021)

image source: https://twitter.com/giroditalia/status/1380495782642642947

Where my cycling bros at?  

Giro d'Italia starts today with a really short 8.6 km individual time trial! Simon Yates, Bernal, and Evenepoel are amongst the top contenders for Maglia Rosa in this year's edition of the Giro.

The stages i'm looking forward to seeing the most are  #11 with strade bianche in Tuscany, stage 14 with a finish at Monte Zoncolan, and stage 20 with the pic-related Madonna d'Europa and three big climbs. I'm sure we will have one hell of a race, as the Giro never fails to disappoint, and it's probably the most fun and unpredictable of the three big tours.

ps, I have a small wager on Ganna to take the ITT today, slightly worried about Remi Cavagna though...

Ineos with 1, 2, and 3rd place on Volta a Catalunya. 

They will make a mistake if Yates is not in their squad for TdF, he seems to be in top form, the way he beat everyone at Vallter 2000 in stage 3, so effortless.

Froome didn't look good at all imo, i know Volta a Catalunya is not something he would set eyes on to win, it's just another race in preparation for the Tour and he is still working on his fitness and form, but still, he is 35 and i just have a feeling we will never see him again battle for GC...

@tyKiwanuka are there any odds for the Green jersey (TdF) out yet? Sagan not losing two in a row, isn't he? Btw, great win yesterday!

Well above 100, at Befair you could surely have gotten close to 200

The Poggio was a bit weird, because of the reasons you mentioned. I still found that MvdP looked super strong when he closed the gap after being badly positioned when the attack happened. Was suprised to see him so far back, because it's not that super unusual for an attack to be launched at that point

Sagan was pretty strong all things considered and Ewan looked fantastic on the Poggio.


This is something I will never understand, guess it's about game theory. Even if someone like WvA goes into the red chasing, he still has a better chance of winning than just zig-zagging and not catching those guys upfront at all.

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Betting-wise it was a small profit thanks to Demare beating Bennett, but I was sweating a bit with Ewan/Pidcock being in the lead group after Poggio

What were the odds for Jasper Stuyven to win Milan-San Remo, 30+ would be my guess, right? Surprising winner but that's an excellent start of the season for Trek - Segafredo, apparently this was their 6 stage/race win, not that bad...

About the race itself, i thought MvdP had awful positioning throughout the Poggio, he stayed way behind and had to chase and exert a lot of energy. Most of the guys in the front group looked a bit tired also, thanks Filippo Ganna and his high tempo, Alaphilippe's attack at the end of the Poggio was not that impressive either.

Stuyven probably would not have won if Van Aert and the rest started their sprint just maybe 200 meters earlier, entering the final km i saw some of them zig-zagging looking around, literally nobody wanted to chase those two in front.....and they lost. It was still pretty entertaining, i was surprised to see Ewan and Sagan doing so well, Sagan barely missed the podium.


Volta a Catalunya next week should be pretty good as startlist looks juicy, not sure how many stages i can watch, but will make sure to catch at least RIPOLL > PORT AINE, three climbs over 1500m.

The last time I checked, headwind was forecasted, what will probably take a lot of action out of the race. But in the end this shouldn't matter, since I expect things to play out according to what the betting markets suggest, i.e. the pure sprinters won't have much of a chance (again) and one of Wout van der Poelippe will win. From these three I would rate MvdP the most likely to win, because of his explosiveness. If his odds have any value I don't know, because there is always the possibility of him getting bored and doing stupid things (on the Cipressa) from a tactical point of view. WvA I would rate the worst, because if MvdP/Ala attack he will not be able to follow immediately and there is not much road left normally until the descent starts. Ala looked bad against MvdP in Strade Bianche, but this is a new race and Ala knows how to win here, so he probably has the most value for me at around 10 rn.

So far I have only put a bet on MvdP @4.2 and layed Ewan, Demare, Pidcock, Bennett and Pedersen (he will not start) a bit. Looking at the H2H, I like Demare tb Bennett for 2.5+. Bennett has poor results here and it's not so much about how fast you can sprint in general, but how fast you can sprint after 299km. That is, if Bennett is even able to finish in group 2/3, which I have my doubts about.

I was never a big fan of (betting on) MSR tbh, I am more a fan of races that evolve earlier than just at a little hill at the end of an ultra long day But nevertheless, once we finally hit the Poggio things get exciting and until then one can enjoy the beautiful scenery at least.

Personally, I am keeping my fingers crossed for Mohoric; would be happy for him, if he wins

I've cleared my schedule for Saturday and should be able to catch Milan–San Remo from the 1st km.

I picked Van Aert ^4.18 or van der Poel ^3.59 to win but have this weird feeling we will rather get a pure sprinter victorious in the end. The last time a sprinter won was 2016, FDJ with Arnaud Demare. It's been a while, so the all-around/GC guys domination has to stop at some point, right? 

Here's the startlist:
https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/milano-sanremo/2021/result/startlist

Jumbo-Visma with a shit squad, Quick Step, INEOS, and BORA look solid, now i wish have gone with Alaphilippe and hedge it with Bennett...

@tyKiwanuka do you have any bets and how do you see the first monument play out?

Roglic just wants to win every stage/race there is I think. He is no young gun anymore and there is only so much time left for him to fill his palmares up. You could see it in stage 7, where he took the win away from Mäder in the last meters with basically no need. This isn't liked by the Peloton as we know and lots of riders were congratulating Schachmann very joyful - looked like everyone was happy that Roglic didn't win the GC.


Source: https://twitter.com/friebos/status/1370756819308675082

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This scene was super "funny" to watch, because Roglic was just following the Quickstep guy, while you could clearly see, that he won't make the bend Guess Roglic was somewhere else with his mind, in pain, mad etc. But nothing happened there fortunately, just some more time lost.

I decided not to watch the stage, Roglic with a comfy i mean what could go wrong, right? and besides there were some other interesting things on TV at that time...thank goodness Eurosport player has all the stages and you can rewatch at a later date.


They say it was two crashes and he suffered some injuries as well:

source: https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/primoz-roglic-suffers-dislocated-shoulder-in-paris-nice-crash/

...if it was that bad why didn't they pull him off the race, TdF is in three months, why risk it @Jumbo–Visma?

so apparently he was close to a hat-trick  , i absolutely need to watch this stage sometime next week, damn...


image source: https://www.eurosportplayer.com

Paris-Nice finished some moments ago and Roglic blew a lead again and lost 3:08 minutes in the last stage, which wasn't a very hard stage for his standards. But tbf he had a crash earlier in the stage. In the end it was Schachmann capitalizing and winning this race back to back. His odds to win the GC were around 25 before the final stage and I would have never placed a bet on that, but thats cycling


Source: https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/paris-nice/2021/gc

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In Tirreno-Adriatico there are 2 stages left; a sprinters stage tomorrow and then the usual ITT in San Benedetto del Tronto. Pogacar will win this race, if he doesn't crash, he has 1:15 on WvA and 3:00 on Landa. MvdP had one of his moments today again and won with a long solo. All stages in this race were won by the big guys. When Pogacar won yesterdays mountain stage, it was the first time EVER that neither of WvA/Ala/MvdP won, when they all were at the start. It wasn't that many races until now, but still shows how dominant these three are. Kind of boring if you ask me, but well deserved, because this doesn't come easy.

Next weekend is MSR then

Mathieu van der Poel won the race and deservedly so imo, he was too strong for Alaphillipe in that final short uphill sprint in Siena.
I think it was also van der Poel who opened a gap with the main group 10km before the final and looked really solid throughout the entire race.

Bernal made a surprising show in top3, the Colombian looks to be in great shape this early in the season, he seems to be the bookies favorite to win Giro d'Italia too.

As for Van Aert, i think he should focus entirely on Tour de France and be Roglic's best helper he can possibly be, Jumbo–Visma will want to avenge for losing to Pogacar and Ineos will come with a stacked team. These early season classics shouldn't be a priority for him and the team, he needs to be in top form come June/July.

Oh, i took a small bet on Alaphillipe to finish in top 3, like babygun. 

Always a fun race to watch, especially the last kilometers!
I can follow your logique by placing the bet on Alaphillipe, he is one of the best in finishes like this (Waalse Pijl also) but I will just place a bet on top 3. I don't want to rule out MvdP and Van Aert. Even though it is Van Aerts his first race, he won it last year and will be fully motivated to win it again this year.

On Saturday there will be the Strade Bianche, which is a super nice race with some gravel roads. I like this race, because tactics or team strength don't play a big role, the strongest riders will be there in the end and fight it out; you don't win this race getting lucky or whatever. There are no groups arriving at the finish line together and the majority of riders DNF's.

When there is rain, these are epic battles, but the weather forecast says no rain or very slight, though there is some rain right now in the Siena area. In dry-ish conditions this race suits a lot of riders, but one-day-race-specialists are normally favoured and if you have cross experience thats even better. No wonder the big favs are MvdP, van Aert and Alaphillipe.

The profile (white=gravel roads):


Source: https://www.strade-bianche.it/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/interni_garibaldi-SB_2021_ME-bassa.pdf

The last 3km:


Source: https://www.strade-bianche.it/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/interni_garibaldi-SB_2021_ME-bassa.pdf

I placed a bet on Alaphillipe at around 5, because he is just a beast on these walls near the finish line. Last year he got a bit unlucky with mechanicals all the time and only finished 24th and 15 minutes down to van Aert. Maybe he has some more luck with his equipment this time. He has been in good form so far this season and won this race in 2019 already.
I don't see MvdP being able to challenge Ala on this wall, but you never know with this guy, he probably arrives there alone after some 150km solo Van Aert just comes from training camp and it will be his first road race of the season, so I don't expect him to be super sharp already.

Updated the calendar, thanks for reminding me.

I watched a good part of UAE Tour (I even watched Etoile de Besseges earlier this month ) and it was a good start to the real season I think. These mountains there are a bit meh, if you are used to the beautiful sceneries in Europe with small/narrow roads, some trees and all the tradition, but it was a good competition between Pogacar/Yates in stage 3. Dekker was nice to watch in the sprinting stages as well; he could be really good in the years to come and he isn't "just" a sprinter from all I know.

Regarding Froome, it will be interesting to see, what he can do throughout the season. I don't expect anything tbh

Tomorrow there will be K-B-K where basically all the guys from Omloop will be starting as well. There is one guy though, who wasn't at Omloop, but will start K-B-K and that is MvdP He had to leave UAE tour early, because of a Covid case in his team, but he looked in fine form winning stage 1 and should normally win tomorrow as well.

Bump! The 2021 season has started with Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and UAE Tour.  

I didn't have much time to watch the UAE Tour in full but caught Jonas Vingegaard's nice win in stage 5, also Caleb Ewan's surprise win today over Sam Bennett who was close to record a hat-trick but was outsmarted by the Australian in the final meters of the stage.

Pogacar won it for UAE team, Adam Yates finished second, dude had a miserable final stage, got involved in a scary crash hitting the asphalt with his face and getting multiple cuts as a result.

I don't have any big takeaways from the UAE tour, it's the start of the season, but it was weird seeing Chris Froome in another uniform/team (Israel Start Up Nation), this will need getting used to i guess.

Anyway, let's finish with some decent shots from the UAE tour (click for high-res):



image source: https://www.theuaetour.com

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@tyKiwanuka you can perhaps update the calendar on page 1, we have some nice classics coming up next month.