Topic: The Cycling Thread - page 5. (Read 1556 times)

Normally, yes, but some things to consider:

Who is interested in a sprint royale ? QuickStep not, they will be happy if the group takes the big sprint points. Bora not, because Sagan couldn't catch up a lot of points then (will even lose some more points most likely). Same for Trentin/CCC. All other teams have not good enough sprinters, to put some guys at the front to chase the group, so they won't help. So that leaves all work to chase the group for Lotto and they only have 4 riders besides Ewan left Would be better for Lotto to put some rider themselves in the group (de Gendt) and then sit back and wait, if the groups get caught, where Ewan could then contest the sprint. But I don't think anyone will chase tomorrow, if Lotto has a rider in the group.

This is the last chance for a lot of riders and teams to win a stage, so expect a big group to try their luck with like 75% of the teams present there. The stage is relatively short and not easy control with quite some up and down, especially in the last 60km. All riders in the group will have a chance to win the stage, since although it's hilly, it's not too demanding, i.e. no team will say "ah, our guy is too weak, lets chase them down".

I think Sagan will try to get into the group, but QS won't allow of course. He will give up sooner or later and let the green jersey go and a Sagan-less group will determine the winner of this stage. If the group isn't too far away in the more hilly terrain, he could do some stunt though and go on the attack, maybe getting some help from Bora guys that managed to get in the attackers group earlier.

If everything goes well than Roglic should win his first Tour de France. In the time trial on Saturday he is also normally better than Pogacar.
For the race of tomorrow, I placed a bet on Ewan top 3 @3.25. Normally this stage will be for the sprinters and Ewan is one of the fastest riders in the peloton so @3.25 is nice value!

Bernal lost additional 10+ minutes to Roglic today!

I'm just wondering if this was deliberate (as in the strategy move) from Ineos, so he can perhaps try to win @ Meribel tomorrow, or is he just that bad?
If he was at 8-9min and attack, i don't think Jumbo-Visma would've allowed him to go, but now that he is so many minutes behind everyone, he is no threat, nobody would care if makes an early attack, and Meribel, the final climb, is exactly what the Colombian like, not so steep but long climb - 20+km @7.8%

It will be a total disaster (as if it's not already) for Ineos if they don't even get 1 stage win, they tried with Carapaz today but Kämna was just better than him/everyone.

I almost never bet on cycling, but i will definietly check what odds is he given to win. I also expect to see Pogacar in action, he has try...

edit; went to check the odds for Bernal only to find that he is out of the tour, so yeah


https://twitter.com/LeTour/status/1306152086472724485

Surprising that Bernal was so bad! Only thing he can do now is, as you mention, is chasing stage wins, which will also be difficult.
I still think that Roglic has the best chances to win, but Pogacar can come close.

Underestimated Porte here, great race by him. Uran easy (should have staked more, lol)

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Bernal looked really bad ! On the positive side of things, we will maybe see him going on the attack now to secure a stage win, if it was just a jour sans.

But Ineos is going down a bit as a whole. The death of Nicolas Portal surely has some impact, but also the team spirit has suffered a bit imo, with the big leaders not being present or not even in the team no more (Thomas, Kiryienka, Knees, Froome etc). They don't seem like a unit no more to me, it's a wild mix of very good riders. Jumbo is the new Sky/Ineos now

And I am sure that Doping is still very present in the peloton, maybe something changed there as well.

Oh dear, Ineos hit rock bottom today, Bernal lost 7+ minutes  with zero chances to even make the top3 in Paris next Sunday.

Ineos getting beat like that, you don't see that very often, hell even the 40-year old Valverde finished just 24' seconds behind the winner Pogacar...

Tomorrow we have rest day covid tests, any team that gives 2 or more positive ones is out of the Tour.

Poor bet Though there were some hopes for it in the end, but it needed a mechanical problem for that^^

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I played Landa tb Porte for today at around 1.70. I always thought that Porte is way overrated on these longer climbs. Tbf in the last years he often had some health issues which prevented him to show what he has still left or what he is capable of. Landa should like todays stage with the big diesel he is. As said before, Porte often finishes last in his group, so this is another option to win this bet.


The schedule for sport fans is just brutal today. There is also the US Open final, lots of football in Germany/England/Spain, Formula1. Don't have enough screens/TV's for all that

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Adding Uran tb Quintana for 2.0. Uran already beat him in the last two moutain stages and Quintana was involved in that crash lately, which caused Mollema/Bardet to abandon the race. Lets see, if he is 100% fit.

15pts from intermediate sprint and 18pts from the final sprint, Bora managed to eliminate Bennett but Sagan missed on a lot of points in the end. They just didn't have enough people to help him in the final few km. Only 40ish pts behind but not many more opportunities like today for him left. If he takes the jersey, it will be the most close-fought one, even last year without winning a single stage (iirc) it was a lot easier. Let's see!


source:https://www.letour.fr/en/

Grand Colombier tomorrow, it's going to be epic!
Also tomorrow, 10 hrs of week1 NFL matches, our poker series, gm6 between Denver and LAC, where do i even begin, so packed! 

I am definitely rooting for him, since I just adore this guy. From the very moment he joined the pro peloton, he was super exciting to watch and apart from hard/long mountain top finishes he can basically do it all, this is very rare. On top of that, he never had the huge team support other guys had and he still was more successfull than them. And he made me lots of money over the years

He revolutionized the way to win the green jersey and the stunt he did today for the bonus sprint is a proof of that. Didn't really pay off, but very creative

I think you are right, chances are small for Sagan to retake the green jersey, but in the stage of today, he stands a chance. I don't think that Bennett will survive until the end of this stage, especially if BORA will make some war. Odds for Sagan the green jersey is around 2.4, which is quite low to be honest.

Didn't find any good h2h's for this stage, but placed a small bet on top 3 for Van Aert (@2.6)

Yes. I was pretty sure, that GvA would be among the attackers today, but nope. Looks like the peloton hasn't given up yet though, so lets see, this is a very long stage


Bennett still has the Paris stage for full points and Stage 14&19, where we could maybe see a sprint. Question is, how successful Sagan will be with his tactics to collect the bonus sprint points by going into groups in the mountain(eous) stages ?

Stage 13: Good chance, bonus sprint comes after some climbs.
Stage 14: Early sprint
Stage 15: Early sprint
Stage 16: Early sprint
Stage 17: Early sprint
Stage 18: Early sprint
Stage 19: No big obstacles before sprint
Stage 20: ITT
Stage 21: Whole peloton will contest bonus sprint

When there is an early sprint, QuickStep won't allow Sagan to take it and chase a group of attackers, where he is in. I don't think Sagan will take the green jersey this year, there are not enough opportunities to get cheap points and catch up.

I think to win this h2h, Van Avermaet needs to get into the group, which is not the case (at the moment). If both riders are in the peloton, it is a coin flip.

By the way, what do you think for the green jersey? I am thinking about placing a small bet on Sagan. Chances are small, but I think he will try his maximum to overcome Bennett.

Expecting a super exciting stage today:


https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/tour-de-france/2020/stage-12/today/profiles

The GC guys will take it easy today and we will see the winner coming from the attackers most likely. This will be ridden like a Classics and it looks tailor-made for Greg van Avermaet, who showed promising form in the last days.

Van Avermaet tb Alaphilippe @2.03 Pinnacle (you can get slightly lower odds at crypto books)

This stage is also tailor-made for Alaphilippe, but tomorrows stage will be on home soil for him, so I guess he will try to get into the group tomorrow and take it easy today. Top3 for GvA looks also good at around 4.50, but tb Ala is a bit safer I think.

Won the bet, but wasn't so sure of it, so it was only a small stake.

Wasn't able to watch the race today, but Roglic has now the yellow jersey. I think chance is quite high that he will keep this until the end.
I was a bit surprised yesterday by the move of Dumoulin, too bad he is not in top shape. I am a fan of him after he won the the Giro D'Italia.

I've started to watch the Tour this year and it is not the same thing with COVID, too many tops are missing.

Also, how do you think they can even run in October in Italy for the Giro, it will probably heavy snowing in the high mountain.

I mean they find the snow in May near the summer what do you think they will find in October near the winter 

Everything was set up perfectly for Sagan to finish Top3, but he was positioned rather bad for the sprint and then it looked like his chain came off - happens. Bonifazio finished 80sec ahead of Viviani in another group.

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Well. looks like a day for the attackers, but I am still expecting some action on that last climb from the GC guys. The descent could maybe trigger some guys as well, but not sure how technical that one is today.


I considered that one too, since I think it's maybe too hard for Ala today, although he improved a lot on these longer climbs. What put me off in the end, is that it's not mountain top finish and Ala can always come back on the desent with the skills he has. And in a little sprint you have to favour Ala then. But good luck anyway

What a race yesterday and a very nice move from Bora! Sagan in green and he will now probably keep it until Paris!
Too bad, I didn't take Van Aert to win  . I always thought that M. Van Der Poel was better than Van Aert, but given the recent victories of Van Aert, I am now thinking the inverse.

Hopefully we will see some a nice race today with some attaques of the favorites.
Placed one bet today: A. Yates tb Alaphilippe (1.79)

A very interesting race today, i wasn't expecting anything to happen, i could see a relaxed ride with peloton sprint in the end given the profile of the stage and since tomorrow's stage 8 will be pretty tough on everybody, thought they would just coast to the finish line and preserve energy. But hey, Bora couldn't care less about the general standings and decided to do their own version of TTT  , getting the main group shredded to pieces from the start. Sagan in green, so mission accomplished, good job Bora!


Yup, the splits were a fact today, Pogacar, Porte, Landa, and a few others lost some valuable time.
What is van Aert taking though? lol, Second win in the last three stages, beating sprinters like its nothing, solid on in the climbs...damn.

Three climbs tomorrow, two from 1 category and one HC, serious stuff, though i'm afraid most riders will be tired as hell after today and we won't see many attacks, i hope i'm wrong though. Thomas De Gendt was testing waters today, i don't know if he has the legs this year but he is up to something, i could see him try to join one of the breakaway groups tomorrow and perhaps win.

It's of course always possible, that the attackers will make it to finish, but for today I don't think so. Too many teams/sprinters still interested and the last 90kms are not really challenging (Kirsipuu already retired some years ago ). Quick Step will want to get that stage win for Bennett and they will surely be the main driving force, if it comes to echolons (they love doing that).

I think it will be reduced peloton sprint, if there is enough wind, maybe ~50 riders in first group, but lets see.

There is indeed value on Sagan to finish in the top 3, but I don't think this will be a peloton sprint. If it would be a sprint, I would have placed a bet on Van Aert to win, but he has already mentioned in several interviews that he will now focus fully on the team. So no bet for me today  .