Topic: The Despondancy Stage - page 2. (Read 5345 times)

Such unselfish acts of kindness these trolls aspire to 

We're not here to warn the delusional bulls. Nothing can be done for the permabulltards and cultists. Their mind is made up: Bitcoin is going to the moon no matter what we say.

We're here to warn the newbies still sitting on the fence, most of whom will lose their savings if they sink money into this pyramid scheme.

Clearly not you, because you aren't signed in to an internet forum concerned with bitcoin, and posting on the forum specifically designated for speculating. OH WAIT.

Exactly what is the point? Who cares where we are anymore?

Always comforting to see a few honest and straightforward people are still active on this forum. Thanks for this refreshing thread.

Nice thread.

To everybody who think the bear market will continue, but still bitcoin will come up again:

Waiting is loosing.

To profit from your vision, you have to get in before the herd, not after.

Great post overall, but that part stands out. Game, set, match, Mr. Bett. Or Gbett. Or something like that.

We are going down. Step 9 or 10 is about where we are. However I doubt even the next crash is the bottom.

Stage 13?? We could be at 9 or 10 as well!

THIS exactly describes my feelings, too. I feel so understood. Thanks, sgbett.

While I was worried at $350 it could go down even further. Down down down or less doesn't seem to be painful anymore - I don't care how deep in the ass it might go.  Actually I even hope to see $120 - just for the lulz.

BTW: Is the fog liftig? Actually, Bitcointalk seems more rational the last days (or is it just my perception!?). It seems, as if if people are spot on, in what they think and articulate. I even began enjoying reading here (first for a long long time).
 

I'm considering possibilities, not posting forgone conclusions.

I observed a change in my sentiment, I questioned why, I remembered something I read about that. I dug it out and posted it as a take on what it could be.

What I noticed was that instead of reading the OP  and considering it on its own merits, a small cohort of people immediately jumped in and posted exactly the same things they posted on every other thread all day long.

Can you explain why I am suddenly no longer worried about it going lower, even though now it feels more hopeless than ever. Before on every run up I was hoping that "this was the end" stages 6-10, but inside I think I knew that we had a long way to go and that it probably wasnt. Every 'calling the bottom' thread was just a manifestation of hope, pleading for it to be so.

Every big selloff, I hoped that was the captulation that had to happen, but again I kind of knew that it wasn't convincing enough.

Now things have changed. The move on the 15th look like it could actually be a capitulation bottom. Since then the general flavour of price action looks to have changed. Firstly the mini-run up. We haven't seen anything like that for a while. The sell of afterwards looks to me like profit taking and not continued downward momentum. Volume trailing off again. In the past its looked different, half hearted upward moves, with consistently petering volume. Selloffs follow, trend resumes.

Now I don't expect bears to change there tune at any time. To stay true to form they have to go through the painful steps 14-17.

It feels like I've done my time, and so now I hand the uncertainty and indecision over to the bears. Whilst I patiently wait for what will come next.

Bitocin isn't broken, the market price at any given point during its adoption is only of interest to traders:


I agree with 'Trollin. the pumps and dumps are speculative. I agree with Torque. Some people aren't traders. Both can be true, just because speculators speculate on the price of something it doesn't preclude the possibility that the thing itself might actually have some value.

I am definitely one of the 'morpheus meme' types. I don't buy BTC to flip for profit. I bought because I believed in it, I still do. All I have to do is manage myself and my emotions and stay calm whilst the rest of the market gyrates. Such gyration is understandable *if* this is actually the new paradigm that it could possibly be.

For those who insist on reading my posts as recommendations to buy, I'm at a loss. I've made it clear countless times that what I post on speculation is just an idea, not a guarantee. I think out loud, I am not afraid to be wrong, and I take actions based on the premise that I probably will be such that if I am I don't lose.

So if anyone wants to make that wrong assumption about what I have done, and then extrapolate that into "how you feel making all them loose" then I can only feel embarrassed for how badly you've misjudged the situation.

As Oda says posting about how my buy in price is single digits will only get backlash, I wouldn't do that. I couldn't anyway, as its now negative $xxx! So please enough with the "losses" posts. Not being *able* to lose is the only thing that allows me to maintain an objective view on whether I should sell.

I shouldn't. Neither should anyone else that only invested what the could afford to lose and correctly said goodbye to every cent they swapped for magic BTCeans right at the start. If it goes to zero I have no sympathy for you, even if you disregard all the premiers as being trollposts (I don't they have there opinions, I have mine) then you should have paid attention to one of the biggest permbulls that has said on many occasions it could go to zero. Caveat Emptor.

Also, don't trade, especially not emotionally. See figure 1.

NB: I break this rule occasionally to sell on the way up, and buy on the way down. Formulaically, without jeopardising the principal BTC sum (and always later regretting the buys that came too early, but never regretting the sells made near the top).

I can very easily imagine a failure scenario and know exactly what where that leaves me. Can any of you permabears actually imagine a 'worldwide adoption' scenario and how that might unfold? and, what effect that would have on you? Would you ever capitulate buy, at which point would you turn your amateur hour psychology tools on yourself and realise that the dissonance was in the mirror all along? Whats your plan for coping with the trauma of missed opportunity, because that could be almost suicide inducing in some - given the temper tantrums y'all have when anyone dares to post suggesting that "price might go up"!

You know uber bears, either could happen. You don't have any idea which it will be, neither do I. Confirmation bias will be your undoing. Things happening that point to less *speculative* price action are all well and good. What does it say about the actual adoption of the technology. Can that continue without fundamental growth in value, that won't necessarily manifest itself as a result of a run up on bitstamp, but perhaps once BTC can be used in the form of a currency collapse whereby the dollar price starts to shoot up but the BTC price stays the same. Such that exchanges are pulled along by real world value and not the other way round like it is at the moment.

correct, but the $$ numbers are tiny right now, 2014 is long gone (it was more like $3-4 mil a year ago). If the number of users is increasing, such small flows are not a problem. My point is that it was most likely not these tiny flows, but rather much larger flows form earlier adopters.
EDIT: I see that OP provided an argument that this is not the case.
I make no bullish or bearish argument here.

In my opinion, sometimes markets represent just some random walk on trend and, as we know, the longer any trend continues, the more likely it will continue in the immediate future (this is true).
Witness priceline decrease to $6 (split adjusted) from $900 in 1999-2000 and then back to above $1000, or Akamai from $300 to below $1, back to $58. Yeah, i can rationalize this ad hoc, but could you predict $1 when it was at $300 and $60 when it was $1-probably not. If I could, i would have been probably close to a billionaire right now.

If someone suggested that the sharp decline in bitcoin price has made its future more uncertain, I would probably agree with this argument.

Yep supply keeps steadily increasing as miners print money are awarded for all the electricity they're wasting hard work.


But you wanna know something even more amazing? The amount of fiat sitting on exchanges has been consistently, steadily and relentlessly decreasing for more than a year, and it's not getting better.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.10248181

How do you like that?
Go figure that shit out.



Price goes down? Gotta be them savvy daytraders screwing with our investment Goddamnit!

No, not 'selling', like what happens on the exchanges. The actual need to find ~1 million USD per day in fresh capital. Or, you know, closer to 2 million the months before. Or almost 4 million even earlier.

We had an inflation of almost 13% last year. How would this not have an effect on price, when taking place together with a correction turning into a full blown bear market?

Here's the simple argument why it has to be that way. If there were upwards of 1 million USD per day fresh capital coming in each day, the only reason we could still be declining in price would be if all the exchanges would be running some gigantic manipulation game to keep price down (fractional reserve plus shorting could do that, perhaps). I consider that a lot less likely than the absence of a million dollar coming in per day.

EDIT: Sloppy reading on my side. Your argument is that old coins cashing out add to the effect. I doubt that, days destroyed and large very old wallets being untouched aren't supporting that idea, afaik.

It's either a lot or a little, but it's still 12%.  12% of total coins in existence had to be bought up in 2014 to keep the price steady.

honestly, i really don't get why people are focusing on 3600 number so much. Yes, someone has to buy these coins, but it is a puny number (The equivalent of $828K). Are you saying that 828K selling is depressing the bitcoin price? If so, bitcoin is punier than I thought. In addition, a measly $2K investment by 360 people on earth populated by 7 billion will devour these few coins.

I think that much stronger flows are probably initial (early) BTC wallets selling. These can really provide a downside.

Fuck yes. Finally a post worth reading again in all this troll garbage. (Yours is worth reading as well, OP, but you know that.)

There's momentum overshoot, to the up and downside, just like in any market. Then there's the Bitcoin typical iliquidity of the very market that determines "the price", mainly because of two reasons: hoarding, and the unusually high counterparty risk with our existing exchanges. Then there's quite a bit of an effect of savvy traders' driving the market in this direction or that (within certain limits). And then there's whatever adoption as a medium of exchange adds a certain minimum valuation through usage.

But at the end, it's mostly about the inflation. ("Boooh. Don't call it that! Bitcoin is sound money!") Whatever price emerges at the end of the day, after all the above factors are included, times 3600 has to be put up by someone. (Actually, quite a bit more than 3600 lately because of the lagging difficulty adjustment. Closer to 4100 per day last year.)

So, we wait for 2017.

Or maybe not. As the wise oracle user who's been absent for a long time now pointed out, there's an interesting dynamic about how the market prices in the decline in the growth of the monetary base. Some anticipation effect of the reward reduction is likely to click at some point with a continued decline in price (which is itself reducing the effect of the 3600 coins per day, all else equal), most likely generating a rather sharp effect on price.

I consider 2017 a hard limit for our bear market, but probably the 'click' will take place before.

Ha

Yes, it was a phase. Eventually fear of exchange failure got the better of me.

Oh I see you are talking about the REALLY old days. People became greedy with the first 2011 bubble or even before, as soon as some understood that this thing could be pumped&dumped.
Sure I know that Gavin donated 10k BTC to a faucet, that early miners had no idea what these funny tokens could become, sure I know.

But when blind greed is involved, things can shift quite quickly. And they did.

PS: How do you know where I was during BTC early days?

^Yep, when BTC was worthless, it was passed around freely, like shitcoins of today.
Now that it's actually worth something, the same BTC "Pioneers" suddenly tightened their purse strings  Err...  I mean far as passing the coin around--they still brag about their mad wealth & teh Lambos bought.

P.S:  I've been around this community for quite a while, and it was *ALWAYS* full of scumbags, second-rate hustlers & first-rate suckers.