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Topic: The Despondancy Stage - page 4. (Read 5339 times)

legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 1000
--------------->¿?
January 30, 2015, 03:17:55 PM
#43
sgbett still hasn't sorted out the cognitive dissonance.

How is loosing money doing for ya sgbett? Never had any regrets to not shortsell some for 800$ or 600$ ? Still think it's gonna be 1000$ soon?

Some beartard still think it will get any lower?
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
January 30, 2015, 02:47:16 PM
#42
sgbett still hasn't sorted out the cognitive dissonance.

How is loosing money doing for ya sgbett? Never had any regrets to not shortsell some for 800$ or 600$ ? Still think it's gonna be 1000$ soon?
donator
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
January 30, 2015, 01:55:34 PM
#41
Any thoughts about what price will be at #14 ?
Smiley
sr. member
Activity: 378
Merit: 254
January 30, 2015, 01:45:00 PM
#40
...
Or perhaps just when everyone is convinced that bitcoin will make a new low or revisit a previous low, it just starts slowly creeping up.  Slowly, inch by inch.  Catching all the bears by surprise.  Just like it did before.
...

The price is creeping down, not up.  And it's not really creeping, it's going at a healthy clip Undecided



@bassclef re. 'See where it says "point of maximum financial risk/opportunity"?':
See where it says "Temporary setback, I'm a long-term investor"?  Yeah, you.
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 4331
January 30, 2015, 01:34:42 PM
#39
A perfect scenario for this to unfold would be for price to slightly overshoot the previous bottom (I assume that it was $152 or about), say to 151.99 or $149.99.
Something similar happened in 2011 when everybody were horrified that BTC breached $2 and thought that it will retest at least $1.
In fact, however, it only breached $2 to $1.98 or so, then went to $1150.
My prediction would be that if this was, indeed, the bottom, we might revisit it with a slight intraday overshot to $149.99-151.99.

Or perhaps just when everyone is convinced that bitcoin will make a new low or revisit a previous low, it just starts slowly creeping up.  Slowly, inch by inch.  Catching all the bears by surprise.  Just like it did before.

yes, of course, there is no investment law that lows have to be revisited.
legendary
Activity: 3710
Merit: 5286
January 30, 2015, 01:32:59 PM
#38
A perfect scenario for this to unfold would be for price to slightly overshoot the previous bottom (I assume that it was $152 or about), say to 151.99 or $149.99.
Something similar happened in 2011 when everybody were horrified that BTC breached $2 and thought that it will retest at least $1.
In fact, however, it only breached $2 to $1.98 or so, then went to $1150.
My prediction would be that if this was, indeed, the bottom, we might revisit it with a slight intraday overshot to $149.99-151.99.

Or perhaps just when everyone is convinced that bitcoin will make a new low or revisit a previous low, it just starts slowly creeping up.  Slowly, inch by inch.  Catching all the bears by surprise.  Just like it did before.

Whale traders determine where the absolute bottom will be.  Not Average Joe.
full member
Activity: 462
Merit: 107
★Bitvest.io★ Play Plinko or Invest!
January 30, 2015, 01:30:09 PM
#37
There are some genuine bears too which truely belive bitcoin is shit and a good first try at best.
If you are reading a old member here that posts frequently, it's more probable that it is a permabull rather than a an old bull turned permabear, since the latter has probably moved on and he is now interested in other things or projects.

Some early adopters simply "get it" and have moved on. You probably won't read a post everyday here from them.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/if-someone-buys-bitcoin-today-theyll-be-lucky-to-see-a-300-roi-496365


Early adopters are actually sitting pretty tight on their stash

http://bitcoinrichlist.com/top100


You mean a part of them (that for all you know is a small fraction of all early adopters, and probably is) are losing huge quantities of money every month?
Sure, I know.
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 4331
January 30, 2015, 01:26:07 PM
#36
A perfect scenario for this to unfold would be for price to slightly overshoot the previous bottom (I assume that it was $152 or about), say to 151.99 or $149.99.
Something similar happened in 2011 when everybody were horrified that BTC breached $2 and thought that it will retest at least $1.
In fact, however, it only breached $2 to $1.98 or so, then went to $1150.
My prediction would be that if this was, indeed, the bottom, we might revisit it with a slight intraday overshot to $149.99-151.99.
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 504
Bitcoin replaces central, not commercial, banks
January 30, 2015, 01:23:48 PM
#35
There are some genuine bears too which truely belive bitcoin is shit and a good first try at best.
If you are reading a old member here that posts frequently, it's more probable that it is a permabull rather than a an old bull turned permabear, since the latter has probably moved on and he is now interested in other things or projects.

Some early adopters simply "get it" and have moved on. You probably won't read a post everyday here from them.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/if-someone-buys-bitcoin-today-theyll-be-lucky-to-see-a-300-roi-496365


Early adopters are actually sitting pretty tight on their stash

http://bitcoinrichlist.com/top100

hero member
Activity: 700
Merit: 501
January 30, 2015, 01:17:08 PM
#34
Good call OP. I actually think we going for another dip down the 100's, then the recapitulation showing Bitcoin resilence by begin. By 2016 we should see a couple suicides happening by twice-boat-missers.
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 500
January 30, 2015, 01:07:19 PM
#33
the problem with valueation of btc is especially critical in this part of the forum.

every person spending a day researching bitcoin and its potential understands that it has fundamentals - it will just in one case be worthless, and that is the very unlikely case that it is dethroned as the cryptocurrency #1.
spending the second day using and grasping the concept, you will very likely understand that we are far away from mass adoption. - gavin put it the best way: he said it is an experiment and he will not tell the general public to use or to buy it at this point of time. this might change, but I think for the time being it is an experiment for geeks speculators and people trying to innovate the financial industry.
full member
Activity: 462
Merit: 107
★Bitvest.io★ Play Plinko or Invest!
January 30, 2015, 01:06:48 PM
#32
There are some genuine bears too which truely belive bitcoin is shit and a good first try at best.
If you are reading a old member here that posts frequently, it's more probable that it is a permabull rather than a an old bull turned permabear, since the latter has probably moved on and he is now interested in other things or projects.

Some early adopters simply "get it" and have moved on. You probably won't read a post everyday here from them.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/if-someone-buys-bitcoin-today-theyll-be-lucky-to-see-a-300-roi-496365
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
January 30, 2015, 01:05:15 PM
#31
There are some genuine bears too which truely belive bitcoin is shit and a good first try at best.

Not everyone posting here does so for the purpose of manipulation.


on topic:

Stages of the market apply not here because we just witnessed a multi-year epic bubble pop. Possibly the biggest bubble since the famous tulipmania. Prices will go to  doubledigits most likely - to the real value.
hero member
Activity: 924
Merit: 1000
January 30, 2015, 12:51:41 PM
#30
I know the comparison is highly unpopular here, but I still believe that Bitcoin has a lot in common with a ponzi scheme. There is tremendous peer pressure to stay into the 'game', if only to fill the pockets of people that were here before. I almost on a daily basis see people advising new members, that mostly have no clue about Bitcoin or where the price is headed, to buy as much as they can and 'hold'. It really is sickening to see sometimes.

Well, you'd better stay off Wall Street, never run for political office, never work for a large company, or god forbid work in the entertainment industry. Because everyone in every one of those establishments will knock your game piece off of the board in an instant, given the chance.

You call it a cult. The whole human race is a cult then: A cult to better ourselves at the expense of others. It's called natural selection.

Sorry to say but the world today is not such a rosy place once you're out of the nest. In my view we attract so many unskilled investors because they see it as a chance to dig their way out of a shitty life position. They don't have access to traditional investment vehicles like many of us in the US and EU but (thanks to technology) they happen to have a computer and are technically literate. To them Bitcoin is a way out, a way to financial freedom to whatever degree they'd like to use it. It is an opportunity for many who are stuck under the thumb of corrupt governments siphoning off their country's resources and fruits of its citizens' labor. Obviously a change like this would not happen overnight, and not necessarily with Bitcoin. Large price swings may scare some people, but looking at the bigger picture it is a blip. And there will be more price swings, more volatility, and more resistance by centralized powers. Strap in or get off the bus.

Here's another version of the chart. See where it says "point of maximum financial risk/opportunity"? It think it is relevant.

legendary
Activity: 3710
Merit: 5286
January 30, 2015, 12:50:37 PM
#29
you would be out of the bitcoin day trading business for good.  
So?

Well seeing that you're on this sub 24/7 now and are compelled to post 1000 times per day, it looks like you desparately need bitcoin to survive.  Which is ironic because you say its worthless.

Ok I'm done with you. Back to /Ignore you go.
full member
Activity: 462
Merit: 107
★Bitvest.io★ Play Plinko or Invest!
January 30, 2015, 12:48:49 PM
#28
you would be out of the bitcoin day trading business for good.  
So?
legendary
Activity: 3710
Merit: 5286
January 30, 2015, 12:46:05 PM
#27
a future world where the bitcoin they bought not only continues to rise in value relative to fiat currency, but they can also exchange it DIRECTLY for everything in life (goods, services, rent, utilities, gas, food, etc.)  THAT is what the Average Joe wants bitcoin for, they don't really want to just exchange it back for more fiat currency.  That defeats the whole purpose in their eyes.
Oh please. lol
Sure, the r/bitcoin users who scream "to the moon" during pumps but argue that price doesn't matter during dumps actually care about paying for something online with their coins.


It's not like the most popular philosophy here and on reddit is that you should HODL your coins and don't spend them (AKA dump them, since merchants don't want no bitcoinz) and that bitcoin is a great gold 2.0 store of value  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

You're the worst kind of troll, because if people actually bought into your stupid "bitcoin is worthless" argument then they would sell everything, never buy again, it would collapse to zero, and you would be out of the bitcoin day trading business for good.  

Be careful what you wish for, troll.   Roll Eyes
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
January 30, 2015, 12:43:47 PM
#26
Thanks for shedding some realism on the situation. Most people here have never been interested in Bitcoin or its applications: that simply is a myth. Before I said that 80 or maybe 90% of the people posting here are only in it for the money, and not for the tech, and I'm gonna stick with that. There's an active movement, and that includes you too SgtBett, that actively make people dream of wealth and grandeur in the future. People only lose when they sell according to their philosophy, while the best thing to do throughout 2014, save during some short lived bumps upwards, was to instantly sell all your Bitcoins.

I know the comparison is highly unpopular here, but I still believe that Bitcoin has a lot in common with a ponzi scheme. There is tremendous peer pressure to stay into the 'game', if only to fill the pockets of people that were here before. I almost on a daily basis see people advising new members, that mostly have no clue about Bitcoin or where the price is headed, to buy as much as they can and 'hold'. It really is sickening to see sometimes.


This again: this instant agressiveness against anything that goes against the status quo here. If you rather not read it, press the 'ignore' button as quite a few people tend to do here. A sign of utter intellectual weakness (as it boils down to plugging your eyes and saying 'lalalalala can't hear you!'), but go ahead if that makes you feel better.

Your opinion isn't just "unpopular". It is pretty unsubstantiated. Which partially explains the aggressiveness you complain about.

Numbers like "80 or 90% don't care about Bitcoin" are pulled straight out of your ass. And are basically accusing anyone who is pro Bitcoin of being a shill or fraud.


And the comparison with a ponzi is as old as this forum. Yes, we understand: those who bought in at single digits are still enjoying happy profits, while those who bought in in late 2013 are sitting on a big loss, USD wise.

But that's where the similarity to a Ponzi or pyramid scheme ends. A Ponzi is by /definition/ unsustainable. Bitcoin has a number of usage cases, or at least so do some investors and speculators think. Depending on the exact usage case it'll settle on, total valuation could be much lower than now (that'd be the "failure" case, I guess), or it could be vastly higher.

So you have to excuse the older members who've heard it all, 3 or 4 times already, each time the market corrected down. Bitcoin might (I stand by that) still fail to gain mass adoption over time. But the arguments brought forward by the "critics", such as that there's a consolidated effort to brainwash everyone into buying more is pretty much bullshit. Doesn't mean the uber bulls are right, but it's a lot more likely they do drink their own kool aid - looking at the registration dates of those accounts, unless they were total idiots in 2011 and 2012, they benefited way too much from the market not to feel pretty good about. Genuinely good, not "let's trick the newcomers into buying this fad" good.
full member
Activity: 134
Merit: 100
January 30, 2015, 12:42:31 PM
#25
you forget the trading joe Wink here because they think that bitcoin has better chances to give them wealth than playing the lottery, but still trading to increase their stash
full member
Activity: 462
Merit: 107
★Bitvest.io★ Play Plinko or Invest!
January 30, 2015, 12:41:30 PM
#24
a future world where the bitcoin they bought not only continues to rise in value relative to fiat currency, but they can also exchange it DIRECTLY for everything in life (goods, services, rent, utilities, gas, food, etc.)  THAT is what the Average Joe wants bitcoin for, they don't really want to just exchange it back for more fiat currency.  That defeats the whole purpose in their eyes.
Oh please. lol
Sure, the r/bitcoin users who scream "to the moon" during pumps but argue that price doesn't matter during dumps actually care about paying for something online with their coins.


It's not like the most popular philosophy here and on reddit is that you should HODL your coins and don't spend them (AKA dump them, since merchants don't want no bitcoinz) and that bitcoin is a great gold 2.0 store of value  Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes

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